“For the opposition, turning loss into long-term growth requires honest self-assessment, not going into hiding. Popularity, music, charisma, and online energy cannot replace alliances, structures, data, and disciplined strategy. The recent election was not decided in the 3 months of campaigns. It was decided in the five years between elections. And in that period, one side organized while the other mostly energized” (Gerald Kansiime Kagyenzi – ‘Hope Is not a Strategy: Why the Opposition Fell Apart’, 27.01.2026, Nile Post).
This here is just a flawed article from the Nile Post, the digital newspaper who sanitize and wants to deliberately speak well of the government. The modern imprint of New Vision. That’s who they are, and this article just proved that from Mr. Gerald Kasiime Kagyenzi.
His arguments are flawed for one reason. The main culprit and main reason for the failure of the opposition, isn’t the opposition itself, but the government and their entities. Let me explain the important fact, which was hidden in his text.
The National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the state party itself wasn’t a shadow or anything like that. No, the NRM had the whole state machinery behind it and even every part of the authorities to back them up. The Party itself doesn’t need structures or vibes even, when they can just send law enforcement and besiege the opposition at any given time. Therefore, regardless of what the opposition did or said. Well, it won’t matter, because the army and the other security organizations will hunt the opposition down. Which it did and it even helped in other civilian affairs too.
It would be rich to see the NRM work and try to campaign like the opposition. In the same climate and with the same reckless attitude of the state against it. See their Presidential Candidate being blocked, MPs arraigned and coordinators kidnapped. That would be really a vision to see… because then we are speaking of level playing field. As if, they could be touched, be taken into custody and kept incommunicado by drones. That would really a poetic justice. However, we know that day won’t come soon. The NRM and the army wouldn’t allow that.
When Kagyenzi speaks of structure, well the NRM Primaries proves how shaky and shoddy they are. We see the blunt affairs and how they act. So, he acts like we don’t know and he speaks like the opposition has no structures, no organization or anything, which is false. As they try to compete, build and organize, but the NRM isn’t really allowing it or letting them act like them. There is a threshold for the opposition versus the NRM. The ones who can’t see that should study the Police Force and the Public Order Management Act. Which is made to control and sustain the opposition, which we see day by day.
If the opposition would have a friendly army and have military operations succeeding for itself. Then might have won, but that’s only for the NRM to get. We know they can have the army to act on its behalf and serve the parties interests. That’s why soldiers, law enforcement and other security entities was all participating in this election. They were the ones that secured it and finalized the results even. So, there is no need of speeches or big salutations after it. Because everyone knows who mattered and who served His Excellency.
So, who and what army can beat the NRM? Well, another army and another gang of bullets, because the ballots are just part of the charade to legitimize the whole affair. It isn’t even funny, but just tragic. As lives are lost and they don’t mind doing that. Just to prove a point and show the Republic who are in power and has all the instruments of the state at its disposal. That’s what we see, and it isn’t even done clever. If they were smart, they would try to conceal it, but it wasn’t even a clandestine mission. However, it was done in the open and for everyone to see. They tried to block the internet, but everyone knows. So please, find better arguments, because this isn’t it. Peace.
MinBane 