The Azimio fall-out!

UPDATE: Raphael Tuju claims parties purporting to withdraw from Azimio had already started negotiations with DP Ruto even before putting demands for a copy of the Azimio agreement, says they are dishonest” (Meru FM, 09.05.2022)

Today it’s official a free-fall of parties leaving the Azimio La Umoja – One Kenya Alliance as the meetings and interviews for the running mate or Deputy Presidential Candidate is getting handled by the alliance. We knew that would be vital and game-changer for the alliance.

Azimio has already had a hectic time with all the parties and how they have been co-ordinated together. As there been levels of who has influence and sway within the alliance. That’s why these things are happening now. However, it worrying for the remaining parties, as the alliance are showing how fragile it is.

While two parties aren’t big, but Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) is the third biggest party to leave and seek to leave the alliance.

So it’s officially that these are leaving:

Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) party led by Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi, Maendeleo Chap Chap (MCC) party led by Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua and Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) leader Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka.

That these parties are leaving the alliance will either join the campaign of Deputy President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza Alliance (KKA). We know that the MCC has already joined there and we don’t know what the PAA is doing. Neither what is the plan of the WDM. However, this is showing how fragile and weak the Azimio is built.

WDM is the biggest party of the OKA, which was left when it joined Azimio. The other parties of OKA had already gone to KKA. So, it seems like Kalonzo might join with fellow NASA Co-Principals there now.

We knew that Mutua tried to get more influence with Mpuya Caucus within Azimio and now he has left that one behind as well. It is really weird and shows the lack of long term strategy of these parties.

The PAA, MCC and WDM could have opportunities ahead of itself in the Azimio. While that might cost now and they are not getting their way now. However, the ODM and Jubilee can only take things so far. Neither can they do it without all of the broad-based allies across the Republic. That’s what is striking about the Azimio alliance in the first place.

Now, when these three are leaving or have left Azimio. The OKA part of the Azimio is also inflated with NARC-Kenya and KANU. While the rest is based around ODM and Jubilee. The other parties are smaller and regional. That’s why the MCC and PAA could be vital in their areas too. Alas, they have not fled the alliance.

It isn’t getting better, but surely the coalitions is getting ironed out. As the Jubilee Secretary General Tuju even claims they were negotiating with both at the same time. If that is true… than the parties been dishonest, but the Azimio has been a closed and done things very internally. Maybe some felt left out or not taken into consideration. That’s why they have reacted this way.

However, the importance of this is clear. That Kalonzo’s journey to Azimio was already hectic and him leaving shows there was problems before he even settled. We know that Kalonzo had set his sights on being the running mate. Now we don’t know what is ahead or if he will be running together with Ruto.

We know MCC and PAA will only be sidekicks in KKA. Just like they were in Azimio. They will not be the big-shots, but be a proud asset to take away from Azimio. That is scoring some political points, but not actually winning the game. This is to early to call and to close to call right now. Even if people are claiming Baba the Fifth a long time ago.

Azimio needs to handle these fall-outs and co-ordinate with the remaining parties. Ensure they feel included and parts of the coalition. They cannot just mix between ODM and Jubilee. It needs to be broader and the net needs to be thrown to be able to catch everyone in the net. However, we are seeing a massive fallout and it’s not looking good.

KKA might celebrate, but that’s a bit early too. They have gotten a few or possible gotten Kalonzo. However, in the end… it’s just another CORD/NASA without Odinga. Who knows if these Co-Principals can make a difference this time around. Nevertheless, this does not look good and that’s clear. Peace.

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