Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC): A Reflection of Oyam North By-Election (12.07.2023)

Opinion: Mzee’s unholy alliances…

“Congratulations to our allies, the UPC and for the candidate, Eunice Apio, for winning the Oyam by-elections. Congratulations also to the NRM and the candidate Engola Junior because the difference between the two was very small” (Museveni, 07.07.2023).

We knew there was something going on, as we have seen the cozy relations between Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) and the National Resistance Movement (NRM). That alliance and friendship came about before the 2016 elections. Therefore, it is now years in the making.

While it has looked questionable at times and several of high ranking officials from the UPC has moved to the NRM. Still, they have worked close and the latest one to move from the UPC to NRM is wife of UPC leader Jimmy Akena, Betty Amongi. That’s why you know the UPC is in close association and Amongi is on her second stint as Minister under the NRM and Museveni.

It is therefore striking that Museveni even writes this today…

“UPC has been, in recent years, positive and not disruptive and so has DP been. That is why I congratulate them, although I would have preferred the NRM to win. Nevertheless, both the UPC and the DP should pay attention to what I said at Icheme recently” (Museveni, 07.07.2023).

We are seeing how Museveni favours both UPC and the Democratic Party (DP). Both party are now allies and under his spell. They are bound by agreements made and done such in a manner, which is indirectly trading away the ideas of the parties themselves. That’s why Museveni can direct them like chapters of the NRM Party. It is compelling when he tells them to pay attention to what he said during the campaigns at Icheme…

Museveni shows the true nature of the agreements, the coalitions and the deals made between them. The friendly nature and the way he speaks fondly of them. There is no bad blood and they serve his interests. That’s why he calls them “positive” and not “disruptive”.

Both James (Jimmy) Akena and Norbert Mao should listen up quickly. This text is made for them and for a purpose. The deals made between NRM-UPC and NRM-DP is beneficial for the President and if it wasn’t… he wouldn’t have signed them or agreed upon it in the first place. Museveni is just showing how political savvy he is and why his been able to be in power for so long. His congratulating the UPC, but at the same time reminding them who to listen too. While telling they are good, but they need to pay attention…

Seriously. UPC and DP are direct allies and traded away legitimacy doing so. I wonder if it is worth it. Regardless of the short-term power and offices. These can be lost quickly and the moment they are not useful. Well, Museveni and the NRM could drop them. They could do so in a heartbeat and without any remedies for the losing part. The parties would be damaged, destroyed, depleted and disillusioned. Because, they sought after the price, but didn’t think of the journey to get there. Peace.

Oyam North By-Election: UPC won it…

“A clear-headed cadre of the NRM, it is no surprise that the late was undertaking ambitious projects in his home, to serve as an example to the community as well as bring development. Therefore, being the considered opinion of the party that Samuel Engola Jr is likely to continue the good work of his father, I hope the people of Oyam North agree to give him a chance to serve” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 04.07.2023).

This seat was bound to be between National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC). Oyam North has been fought between these two parties. While independents has also prospered, but not won.

Yesterday was no different. Yes, there was pre-ticked ballots, election interference and malpractice done on a high level. There was usage of law enforcement and soldiers to cause tension. While the final straw still went to the UPC. That’s not shocking but a mere fact of how this constituency is.

Jimmy Akena of the UPC was real on the frontline and fighting for his party. He went all out there and knew the possibility of a UPC victory. This is one of those seats the party has a chance of getting. That’s just the way things are…

The son of the late MP, Samuel Engola Junior wasn’t as lucky as others. We have seen in Serere County and Omoro County where the sons of the late has won the seats. Now in Oyam North that wasn’t the case. Here the UPC takes over from where the late Minister and MP left off.

Dr. Apio will now take the seat until the general election in 2026. She will have three years as MP for Oyam North before being incumbent in the next election. That’s just the name of the game. NRM will return and most likely she could easily contest against Samuel Engola Jr. again. It was so close that it can easily turn the other way. Especially, if the NRM gets away with rigging and intimidation ahead of the polls.

The FDC and NUP fielded candidates too, but they were abysmal, and I knew it would be bad. These two parties had no say in this one. That was a given so no one should cry or be worried about it. No, this one was between the NRM and the UPC. Anyone thinks differently haven’t follow the elections in the constituency or the popular opinion here.

We can just see the UPC triumphing the NRM for once. It isn’t often and it just seem to happen in a place where it makes sense. The NRM and the President knows the opposition needs some wins and seats to be viable. Therefore, the win for UPC can be a gain for him. It is not like it changes things in Parliament. The NRM isn’t really weaker or lack votes in majority. No, the Oyam North would only have a NRM flagbearer returning to Parliament and nothing else. It isn’t like the Andrew Ojok Oulanyah has revolutionized anything since taking over. Neither would Samuel Engola Jr….

We can congratulate the UPC and their new MP. They have a victory, and they were so close to loosen it too. It was a smidge above the NRM. That with the rigging and the attempts to conquer by any means. The UPC did it… but we just have to see how it will play out from here. Peace.

Oyam North By-Election: Return Form for Transmission of Results (06.07.2023)

Oyam North By-Election: Engola Jr. Vs. Dr. Apio

The Oyam North By-Election scheduled for the 4^{th of} July 2023 after the MP of the area was assassinated earlier in the year. Now it isn’t speculations anymore, but today and tomorrow the candidates for the race is finally finalized.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) is following the trend and letting the son of the late Minister become their candidate, Samuel Junior Okello Engola. He will face several other candidates, but the most important one is the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) Dr. Eunice Apio.

These are two candidates to look after and consider in this race. Freddy Newton Okello (FDC) and Daniel Okello (NUP) can participate and be vocal. However, everything will encircle the NRM and the UPC in this here race. That’s if the Oyam North By-Election follows the pattern of previous elections.

The ones in 2021, 2016 and such has all been surrounding the two mentioned parties. The others haven’t had a shot. Oyam North goes either to the UPC or the NRM. That’s how it goes.

Now with the demise of Charles Okello Engola there is maybe sentimental values or attachment, which will reach in favour of Samuel Junior. That’s what the NRM is banking on. Since they did the same happen in Omoro County By-Election and when NRM defied it… it happens again in Serere County By-Election. Therefore, they are just using a tested method to this one.

The NRM is running high on nepotism, and it isn’t that clever. That’s why Engola Junior has a shot to inherit the seat. Not because of his inner wisdom or experience. No, he will be another one of the cronies and silent culprits of the state. Just like the winner of the Omoro County By-Election. It is the same vibe, just another by-election.

Dr. Apio might be the best candidate overall, and she has been close to win in the past. The community and the district itself should know her by now. I’m just amazed that Charles Krispus Ayena didn’t run as a independent again. He could also be a viable candidate if you look at the same poll from the past.

That’s why the NRM vs. UPC is gearing itself up. That is the reality here. The National Unity Platform (NUP) and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) got nothing to gain here. They have no momentum or party allegiances to make it possible. These candidates can only undermine the UPC ticket and weaken it’s bid to overcome the NRM.

We know the NRM, and the regime will use all force in it. The region might look like a warzone in the 48 hours before the polls. It might also turn strange and pre-ticked ballots will come in a dozen of ballot boxes. Heck, there might be voter tourism from other districts to boost the numbers for the NRM. It is the sort of vibe of the nation and what they do to “win”. Peace.

Oyam North By-Election: The Electoral Commission – Office of the District Returning Officer – Nomination Schedules (19.06.2023)

Oyam North By-Election: The sons are here to inherit the earth…

“Now the Lango cultural leaders under the leadership of the Paramount Chief Yosam Odur want the vacant Oyam North constituency seat to be reserved for the family of the late Engola” (…) ”Robert Ajal, the Prime Minister of Lango Cultural Foundation came up with the motion of fronting a family member for the Oyam North parliamentary seat during a cabinet meeting. “We should consider a possibility of being replaced by his son in parliament. We implore government to do proper investigation and get us information before the burial,” Ajal said. Dr. Christopher Oleke, the Deputy Awitong of Otikokin clan, also emphasizes that picking one of the late Engola’s children to help complete his term in parliament will be such a great gift to the family in his memory” (Charity Akullo – ‘Lango wants late minister Engola replaced by son in Parliament’, 08.05.2023, KFM.Co.Ug).

In the 11^th Parliament there is clearly a sentiment that is set. This happened in Omoro County By-Election and in Serere County By-Election. Both the sons of the late Members of Parliament was elected.

In Omoro County the President designated and ordered everyone else to back down for the son of the late speaker and MP. While in Serere County the National Resistance Movement (NRM) went with another candidate, but the constituents elected the son on a independent ticket.

Now in Lango Sub-Region and in Oyam North By-Election the cultural chiefs and leaders are now wanting the same fate. They want to ringfence the MP position to the family of Charles Engola. These leaders want another son to takeover from the late father. It is keeping the MP in the family.

Though after two recent elections, I would think the NRM should go for the former UPC and Independent Charles Krispus Ayena. While the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) should or could have Eunice Apio. However, that is up for the UPC Primaries.

This will be battle between the NRM and UPC. These are the two parties that have held offices and gotten elected in Oyam North before. Therefore, the other parties have little to no favours here. Alas, they can field candidates, but I doubt they will get any traction. Unless, they have a magnificent character out of leftfield.

The NRM will now feel the pressure, as they cannot go after the second-best option. They got to either stick with nepotism and heirloom. If not they are risking it by doing the same as they did in the Serere County By-Election. Where the was calls for the same, but they instead went for a NRM Primaried candidate. Which after Party Laws are legit but wasn’t beloved or the one the constituents wanted.

This race is already panning out and the Electoral Commission haven’t even announced the roadmap to the elections. We knew this was bound to happen, but it certainly becomes interesting when family matters are put into the mix. Peace.

Oyam North By-Election: Who will takeover after the late Charles Okello Engola?

The unfortunate death of the State Minister and MP of Oyam North, Charles Okello Engola has some consequences. First it is opening up a seat in Parliament and a Ministerial post. What will happen in the first few day, there will be plans for burial and proceedings concerning the later Minister. That is just the way these things goes, and as early as the burial is over. The plans for the seats and the offices are getting prepared. Meaning a By-Election and an appointment of a new State Minister in his stead.

Just like he goes from being a minister, he is becoming a former minister and ex-MP in the afterlife. That’s why someone will takeover his office in the cabinet and another person will takeover the seat in Parliament. This is why because of the unfortunate there will be a new By-Election.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) would do whatever it takes to retain the seat and command dominance of the North. They want to have a grand majority and want to win By-Elections. The NRM will use the state machinery and all of their tools. This means the army, police and all the intimidation will be in order. Also, in addition voter tourism, bribes and other means to prepare a victory for themselves. They would also “pre-tick” ballots and toy around Returning Forms just to “win”. So, don’t expect fair game.

What I do expect now is that the Independent Charles Krispus Ayena might vie for the NRM seat. As he was the biggest independent candidate in 2021 elections. He also came in second in the 2016 elections as a UPC candidate. Maybe even Dilla Benson would like to try and get ahead. Since he has tried to get elected as LC5 in the 2021 elections.

The Uganda People’s Congress should field a candidate in this race and should have a fair chance here. They are already elected in other parts Oyam District and UPC has a stronghold in the North. That is not only historically, but also by default in the recent elections. We can wonder if Eunice Apio wants to be the UPC candidate again.

In the last two general elections the other parties didn’t field candidates. There was only other independents. These didn’t fare well in the races. They only got scraps or bare minimum. Therefore, the ideas that an Independent candidate will get the cake is ridiculous. Especially, knowing how heavy artillery and machinery the NRM puts forward in a By-Election.

The UPC is the only party here who has a shot. The others are only fools hope. The NRM wants to retain it, but will they go for the likes of former UPC like Ayena or go for a leader like Benson.

The UPC will have it hard, but this one would be possible to crack. Especially, if they field someone within reason and maybe even the same as in 2021. Apio might have a shot, but we never know. She got 17,000 and Engola got 22,000. Time will tell, but this is now mere speculations.

As a By-Election is coming and it will be between the NRM and the UPC. Peace.