“the Burundian minister in charge of internal affairs says #Burundi has suspended all relations with the Rwandan president. “Paul Kagame is a bad neighbor. We have suspended all relations with him until he comes to his senses. He has unhealthy plans” (…) ““He is harboring criminals who are destabilizing #Burundi. All criminals go through his country!”, accused Mr. Niteretse” (SOS Medias Burundi, 11.01.2024).
In a hasty reaction from the CNDD-FDD and the elite of Bujumbura/Gitega, the Burundian government has now closed their borders with Rwanda and suspended all relations with Kigali. This is a result of prolonged tensions and questions of insurgency from the parties.
While Rwanda and the regime in Kigali has claimed not be involved or directly sponsoring it. We know by facts and historical patterns, that the Rwandan authorities or army has helped proxy militias with bases within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to attack and muster force. Which is what the President and the leaders of Burundi has claimed. They have claimed the Rwandan government have sponsored the Red-Tabara and their cause to uproot the CNDD-FDD in Burundi. Therefore, now it isn’t about dialogue or talks, but action from the Burundian counterparts.
The Rwandan government have come out with a custom statement and “regretted” the decision made by Burundi. However, it hasn’t addressed the counter-claims or the reasons for the closure. Only used free flow of people and business as motivation for the “sadness” of the border closure. Which is interesting in itself.
We have seen how this played out and was a prolonged agony between Rwanda and Uganda not long ago. As the Republic’s stood tall on their principals and needed lots of talks to eventually open up the borders again. The same will be most likely happening here, as they need talks in Luanda and elsewhere to get into a feasible agreement. However, I wouldn’t count on it coming anytime soon. As these things are fickle.
The Burundian President wants to show force and that he can handle his office. He wants to extol power and be at the helm. That’s what he needs right now and the skirmishes or attacks on Burundian soil is damaging his reputation as a leader. That’s why this is a response. We cannot with certainty say that the Rwandan authorities or army is supporting Red-Tabara or other militias, which could attack Burundi. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary in 2024…
Alas, that is where Kagame has a problem. We know and he knows that we know. Even if he isn’t responsible for this. His been in the past elsewhere and he has had his men on the ground in the DRC fighting his battles. That’s just a mere fact and he could easily have another proxy hurting his nemesis and advisory in Bujumbura. Because, why not? He did so in Kinshasa, so why not with another neighbour?
Well, that is just mere speculation, but with this knowledge and past aggression. I cannot blame Burundi for acting like this. They are answering Kigali and we know Rwanda will act like a victim. While they should look into the grievances and possibly address it. Especially, if they are concerned about the suspension of ties and closure of borders. That’s up to Kigali to answer the call and find ways to up-ease Bujumbura. However, I wouldn’t count on it.
The EAC won’t matter much here and neither IGAD. The AU will not know how to grasp this and therefore, this will a long stalemate. Peace.
MinBane 