Kisoro By-Election: A look into Bobi Wine’s response after the polls

“We are certainly not saying that we would have won each of these by-elections. But there is all evidence to prove that they were neither free nor fair. Even in places where their candidates could potentially win comfortably, they engaged in massive ballot stuffing” (Bobi Wine, 15.11.2024).

On Friday 15^th November 2024, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine published a text on social media addressing the aftermath and the results of the Kisoro By-Election. That to no avail or surprise went to the National Resistance Movement (NRM) or a NRM leaning Independent. This what went down and no one in the Republic was shocked by it.

We know how these By-Elections goes down and sometime you have to wonder if the Opposition parties aren’t reflecting on how they are operating. Because these elections goes down and they are all shocked about it. Instead of seeing the pattern and evolving. Following the same procedure and not acting accordingly. That’s what we have seen from the National Unity Platform (NUP). It haven’t barricaded or tried to force itself on the system. Instead it is just as complicit as the predecessors. Who are all banking on the same authorities and living in the hope that it will change itself. Which we aren’t seeing decades after decades…

Bobi Wine says: “Come back to yesterday, by 10:00am, regime officials started reaching out to our polling agents with money and telling them if they resisted, they would be arrested. Many indeed gave in and abandoned their stations. Only a few resisted and reported what was happening.

The regime does this to deliberately downplay our strength and to drive the narrative that the masses we attract do not necessarily translate into votes. Given that we’re heading towards the general election, they know this might have an effect on the psyche of the population, such that when they rig, they have recent by-elections to justify their theft!” (Bobi Wine, 15.11.2024).

We know these things are happening. The militarized zones and the usage of force by the authorities. The NUP and other parties knows this happens very well. That isn’t anything new and been modus operandi for years. Therefore, the opposition should reflect on how it works around it and guard the votes. How it can retaliate in a peaceful manner and be agents of change. Instead of letting them “win” in fear and in the possibility of retribution. Therefore, this is just a disregard of the will of the people and what they really want.

He continues: “Certainly, there are many places where NUP and the larger opposition need to do much more work in mobilising and awakening people, and Kisoro is one of them. It is clear that even without the kind of rigging they engaged in, the independent candidate would still have won. (But what is true also is that the NUP candidate would have gotten many more votes than those allocated to her.) This is in part because in Kisoro (and Oyam) there was another dynamic of a protest vote against the official NRM candidates. The would-be opposition voters chose to unite behind candidates they considered having the best chance against the NRM” (Bobi Wine, 15.11.2024).

This here is a mere fact, but its troubling for any opposition or party to do this. As the NRM and the authorities blocks the parties from engaging and building up structures. The state is interfering in internal party business and how it supposed to build party organizations. Therefore, they are tied and handicapped, which isn’t helping ahead of any polls. In addition to the rigorous activities during the polls and during the counting of it. Which is just a charade and make a mockery of the shindig.

Bobi Wine is even spelling out what I said after the polls. That in some races the Opposition should rally behind one candidate. Just to have a bigger shot at defeating the NRM. However, then you need to coordinate and have a willing of dialogue in a short span of time. Where the trust is built up between the parties and they are willing to forfeit candidature too. As it could be more humiliating if they fail to succeed. Regardless, in some instances it could be helpful. Especially, if the goal is to get the number of NRM MPs down in Parliament.

He continues: “Therefore friends, DO NOT BE DISCOURAGED. The struggle against dictatorship and misrule will involve many challenges before we get to victory. And yet we keep using all avenues including elections to awaken our people and push the message of freedom” (Bobi Wine, 15.11.2024).

Yes, the struggle lives on. Just like it did in the past. More of the same. Where people are doing the same and thinking they will get another result. Trying to configure the same system that is built to destroy the competition. Therefore, the way to victory over it isn’t to play as a part of it, but outwit it. However, that seems uncertain and as unknown terrain for plenty right now. Besigye have outlined the needs and the steps to do so. Nevertheless, those steps are forgotten and people aren’t reminded about those. That’s why we copy-and-paste. Meanwhile, the NRM lingers on and nothing changes. Peace.

Kisoro By-Election: Doing the same thing and learning nothing…

The recent Kisoro By-Election have gone down without much fanfare or excitement. Shockingly, there haven’t been a sort of move or tension, which made the regime or the National Resistance Movement (NRM) to act all out.

The ordinary acts of pre-ticked ballots, added security forces and policing in the District was as a customary act. The NRM used their teams and worked hard for their candidate. Meanwhile the opposition fielded several candidates to no avail.

That the PPP, FDC, UPC and NUP all had a candidate, but the battle was a NRM Leaning Independent versus the NRM candidate. The others was just publicity and party building exercises. The ones thinking otherwise was naive.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) have yet again not listed to the local sentiments or who that is rightfully to elect. That’s why Rose Kabagyeni didn’t win and wasn’t favoured enough as Grace Ngabirano Akifeza. The NRM Electoral Commission didn’t take into consideration the will of the region or the district and just pushed through their person. This is why Akifeza went independent and proved them all wrong.

Plenty are mocking the NUP here, rightfully so… but in justification the NUP had no stakes in it and would only be a miracle if it was getting a win. The machinery is on the side of the NRM. The state apparatus in high gear and this is why they sort it out this way. They can rig to a certain extent, but they cannot force it totally. That’s why the likes of Akifeza gets through.

She would have harder trouble being elected or being part of it. If she wasn’t friendly to the NRM and wanted to be their flag-bearer to begin with. The President and the NRM EC needs to reevaluate. The other parties just had fools hope and it went nowhere.

It didn’t help that Bobi Wine or James Akena was part of the campaigns ahead of the polls. It didn’t matter that the NUP was there for two days. However, they didn’t guard the votes and continued their country tour. That’s why some people aren’t taking them seriously. As they weren’t trying to forge or even fortify the district. Instead they had hope and thought Tana aka Beyoncé would carry it for them. Alas, that is clearly not the case.

The Opposition Parties needs to assess the By-Election and if it is worth it. They need to consider to field joint candidates and make alliance across the political spectrum. As the NRM won’t relent and they are only allowing NRM leaning Independents as the second best. This is why they accept the loss, but wouldn’t be okay with a true opposition. Therefore, they knew this and saw the footprints in the sand.

You need an earthquake and a miracle for opposition MPs to win in these By-Elections. There is little wiggle-room or if any. Except for when a person has such popularity that is out of bound or out of the ordinary. They are unique and has the messages that the locals or voters are concerned about. They have the sincere heart and nobility that makes them feasible. That’s the times the opposition has won these in the recent years.

This time around… there was a run-of-the-mill election. Nothing was significant and no message was said. There was no story or tale to be told. Only that the NRM lost to one of their own. They lost to someone who wanted to be theirs, but they rejected her. That’s why the locals said “no” and we want her. This is why we are here today. Peace.

Kisoro By-Election: Return Form for Transmission of Results (15.11.2024)

Kisoro By-Election: Do we even care?

“For decades, the Mateke family has been a powerhouse in Kisoro’s politics, leaving an indelible mark on the district’s development and governance. The extent of the family’s influence was once again on display this week, following the demise of Kisoro Woman MP and State Minister for Defence, Sarah Mateke, when district leaders endorsed her younger sister, Ruth Nyiraneza to succeed her as Woman MP” (NBS Television, 15.09.2024).

I beg your pardon, but do we? Do we care about this By-Election? It’s a long time coming. The 11^th Parliament is settled and yet another Member of Parliament died in office. So, there has to be an election to replace the late Honourable Sarah Matake, the former State Minister of Defence.

Certainly, the family wants to ringfence it and others has supported this. The state of hereditary politicks is among us. We have seen this several other races and by-elections over the past few years. Where the family members of the deceased as fielded a candidate for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and if it has failed. They have stood as independent and still won the seat. Therefore, in this case… that wouldn’t be shocking either.

There is talk of 15 candidates across the board for this one. The ones thinking this will be a test and a show for 2026 is wrong. It is just another By-Election and its sort of already scheduled. There is nothing surprising here and we know the gist.

The authorities are ready and the Electoral Commission too. The whole gig is prepared, and the pre-planned warzone is soon amongst us. Where the opposition will be man-handled, the law-enforcement will arrest and block rallies. Meanwhile, the NRM can do whatever they like. See unmarked cars and vehicles with officers doing questionable acts. However, they will claim the opposition planned some sinister things…

That’s why the results and the polls are a farce. There is nothing here to see that we haven’t seen before. We can wonder if Ruth Nyiraneza is the next in line or if Fancy Nirere will pull it off. There are other candidates too, but I am not hopeful. Neither if it is NUP, UPC or anyone else for that matter. These sorts of races are to get a new NRM MP and nothing else. That’s the endgame and how the score is tallied.

There is no fanfare or joy in this. It is only procedure and more causes or effects. There is no sort of hope or signs of possible positive outcomes here. No, it is just another poll that is most likely ending in favour of the ruling regime. The ruling regime that is handling it and ensuring their favoured result. Therefore, everyone else is just props and making it look legit. That’s the gist here…

I am not giddy or looking forward to this By-Election. After how several others has gone over the years. This won’t be any different and only the names on the ballots has changed. It is the same NRM and same security organizations interfering in the elections. The same intimidation, briberies and voter tourism that we have seen before. Everything to make it seems good, but we know the reality on the ground.

That’s why this Kisoro By-Election isn’t all that. It’s a default setting and we have seen it before. This is why I am cynical and not hopeful. I don’t see anything good coming out of this. It is just another re-establishment of a new NRM MP and that’s it. Peace.