Ethiopia: Fatal resistance in the Amhara Region!

In Ethiopia, the problem is that you don’t know who’s who. You don’t know who to trust. You don’t have any freedom”Feyisa Lilesa

There been utter silence on the fatal resistance in Ethiopia. Where certain regions are still under fire by the central government or the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPDRF) or the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). They have done whatever they can to silence the oppression and the resistance in the region.

Down down with the regim, down down with TPLF. We denounce the brutal killings of protestors in Woldia, Kobo, Wello, Amhara and all across the country, ” chanted young people in Mersa as they protest against the massacre in Kobo and Woldiya that killed over 60, heavily injured hundreds, and damaged business worth of millions, according to eye witnesses” (Amhara Press, 28.01.2018).

On the 21st January 2018 in Weldiya in the Amhara Regional State during the demonstration during the festival town. The Aghazi force has killed 5 people. During the whole Festival and Weekend reports was about 20 people killed by the military, as the crackdown continued. This is the second year in the row the government attacks the religious festival of Irrecha. One of the killed people was a twelve year old boy.

On the 22nd January 2018 the United Nations Department for Safety and Security in Addis Ababa in Ethiopia sent out a Secret Memo warning the UN workers of traveling in the Amhara region. Specifying all WHO Staff from crossing from Woldoya to Mekele. That staff should take an alternative route to Western Tigray area. Also make sure WHO staff in Mekele Office needs caution in the events of revenge. This means the United Nations and WHO would know about the activity in the region. The clearest statement was this: “The events in Amhara are quite far from our office in Bahir Dir. (roughly 500 kms away), however UNDSS temporarily suspended all UN road mission inside or the Amhara Region”. This was all warnings made by Alaa Farouk.

So with the knowledge of the internal memo of the UNDSS of 22nd January, the people should know the actions of the EPDRF or TPLF is bad. As the Aghazi Squad and Tigrayan Army are there answering the demonstrations with violence.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights:

“We are extremely concerned by the use of force by security officials against worshippers celebrating the Ethiopian Orthodox festival of Epiphany this weekend that left at least seven people dead and a number injured. The incident, in Woldiya City in Amhara Regional State on 20 January, reportedly took place when the security forces tried to stop people from chanting anti-government songs and allegedly opened fire on them. Protesters reportedly later blocked roads and destroyed a number of properties.”” (UN High Commission for Human Rights, 23.01.2018).

On the 25th January the reports of attacks by the government in the town of Kobo. Unclear about how many who was killed here, but their been burned state buildings and cars. As the civil unrest and demonstrations in the region is rising. Small towns in and around Kobo, the people has started to demonstrate as well. Over two days of demonstrations, the military has killed about 10 people.

In areas like Mesra, at least 16 people are killed. There been dropped bombs over the town. The Police Station, Local Court, residences and the local Administration Office was burned down. That was done on the 27th January 2018. “Everyone has boycotted Tigrain business in town as they are spying us, and leading the repression here in our city. They are in a loss. They wanted to sell their property. But, nobody is interested in visiting in their real estate show time. Arson sabotage seems to be the most revengeful and profitable way out for them,” says Kindu, a real estate agent in North Wello, Amhara, Ethiopia” (Amhara Network, 27.01.2018).

So within quick counting within a week in the Amhara region, there been killed by state security agents over 60 people. That is safe estimates, not even exaggerated or bloated. The TPLF and the Aghazi Squad could easily taken more people’s lives. This is just the safe numbers of actually deceased. It could be much worse. This regime has no scruples and showing it with sending the army against their citizens. That should be a warning and unsettle anyone. Since they are using the vile force of oppression against their own. Peace.

Ethiopian troops enters Somalia to reinforce offensive against the Al-Shabaab!

The Ethiopian Armed Forces has returned and arrived again on Somali soil. This after a call between EPRDF and the Transitional Government in Mogadishu. Clearly, the Al-Shabaab insurgency is out of control with the two recent bombings in the Republic. That the Somali President Faramaajo has to call on Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn to send troops into Somalia. This is after even the mandate of AMISOM is strong and Kenyan presence is there. Certainly, the Somali government has weaken their position and the strengthen of own troops must be hurt by this. As the Ethiopian government sends 1000 troops into Somali territory.

The AMISOM apparently needs the support of Ethiopia and Kenya to achieve their goals of stopping Al-Shabaab, they cannot do it without, as the government haven’t the trained soldiers or the bullets to do so themselves. That is evident as the Ethiopian soldiers are pouring into Somalia. You can wonder who are paying the salaries and fixing the equipment of the armed combatants there. They are usually not fighting wars for free. Especially not from a broke state and with massive demonstrations as Ethiopia. At this moment, this must be giving funding to a broke state and also help them with diplomatic support to facilitate and help the Federation of Somalia. Clearly, it cannot be keep the horn peaceful, as the soldiers themselves has been used in Amhara and Oromia to quell demonstrators over the recent years, killing civilians and tormenting them. We will see what they will achieve and when the conference call for the operations is launched.

ESAT News (November 2, 2017) Hundreds of Ethiopian troops have crossed into Somalia help new offensive by the Somali government against Al-Shabaab militants. The VOA report quoted residents in the border town of Dolow, in Somalia’s Gedo region, as saying that they saw at least 30 vehicles carrying Ethiopian troops crossing into Somalia late Tuesday. The locals estimate that about 1000 Ethiopian troops have entered Somalia on Tuesday” (ESAT, 02.11.2017).

Regional authorities contacted by VOA on Wednesday confirmed the new Ethiopian military movements.“The Ethiopian troops as a part of AMISOM have already been in the region, and their current movement is part of the response to the Somali president’s call for a massive attack on al-Shabab militants,” said Mohamed Husein al-Qadi, the deputy governor of Gedo region” (DireTube, 02.11.2017).

MOGADISHU, Somalia – Border residents say thousands of Ethiopian troops have crossed into Somalia to accompany a large-scale offensive against al-Shabab extremists. The offensive comes after a truck bombing in Somalia’s capital last month killed more than 350 people. Somalia’s president has visited countries in the expanse to seek more military sustain. Abdullahi Yusuf, an elder in Luq town, says Ethiopian troops in tanks and armored vehicles passed by Thursday morning toward southwestern Somalia” (Uxcnc.com, 02.11.2017).

We can wonder if the United States or any other sponsor of AMISOM asked the President of Somalia to this call, to again call upon the Ethiopian troops to clear the streets as they have done in the past. As they did for instance in 2006, 2011 and 2016, and so on. This to get rid of Somali problems, but leaving power-vacuum and opening up for more violence. As long as they have come in either as invading force, supported by Americans like in 2006 or other times. They have not left Somalia better, but more wounded ready to taken by other warlords or other leaders who has had their selfishness instead of building government.

We can wonder if this will bring any hope or be used for greater Ethiopian pride, if he EPRDF are using this or the TPLF are using this as a deflection from the problems in their state. The Ethiopian state is not a great stage right now. The demonstrations and the killings of civilians continue as well as activists are detained together with opposition leaders. The Ethiopian leadership needs this conflict with Al-Shabaab to look good and also possibly make people forget their own actions against their own citizens.

We can wonder what the Somali President are considering and his motives behind getting Ethiopian forces as well, as the AMISOM and Kenyan forces on his soil. There are lots of foreign forces protecting the Somali life, they are there paid by foreign donors, therefore their loyalty isn’t to the Transitional Government, but to the donors. When the donors stop, they will leave and fight conflicts elsewhere. While the Somali government are also trying to change the regional leadership in the federation to make sure they are more Mogadishu friendly and not as independent to make agreement with foreign nations without the permission of Mogadishu, as the DP World contract is evident off.

We can just wonder how long the Ethiopian forces will be on Somali soil and to what extent their mandate is, as the AMISOM and the Al-Shabaab vows is not over. Peace.

South Sudan: National Salvation Front/Army (NAS) – “On Clashes with Kiir” (30.10.2017)

UNHCR expresses concern over humanitarian situation of South Sudanese refugees in Khartoum (26.10.2017)

Latest reports indicate that some 220 shelters in Dar Es-Salam’s open area were removed by police on 23 October, reportedly leaving some 2,000 South Sudanese refugees without shelter.

GENEVA, Switzerland, October 26, 2017 – UNHCR’s Representation in Sudan is concerned about the inadequate response to the humanitarian needs of South Sudanese refugees in Khartoum. Over the past few months, thousands of refugees have been relocated or had their shelters demolished without adequate planning and consultation with the communities.

Latest reports indicate that some 220 shelters in Dar Es-Salam’s open area were removed by police on 23 October, reportedly leaving some 2,000 South Sudanese refugees without shelter. Other refugees have been relocated to Bantiu site in Jebel Auliya locality and Naivasha site in Omdurman where inadequate reception planning has resulted in over-crowding, inadequate shelter, and over-stretched water and sanitation facilities.

UNHCR has welcomed an initial visit jointly held by the Government and the UN in late August 2017 to Bantiu site in Jebel Auliya locality to make a general assessment of the situation of the South Sudanese refugees. That visit witnessed clear and urgent humanitarian needs in water, sanitation, shelter, health and education. Planning is underway for a more detailed Government – interagency assessment of the open areas in Khartoum state. A rapid assessment, supported with full access, will allow UNHCR and other actors to start providing much needed support.

UNHCR acknowledges the Government of Sudan’s wish to find more sustainable options for hosting South Sudanese refugees who are currently living in “open areas” in Khartoum state and stands ready to discuss those options, bearing in mind the importance of a consultative process with key stakeholders including the refugee communities. Pending these longer-term options, UNHCR is hopeful that the immediate humanitarian needs of the South Sudanese refugees in Khartoum will be addressed in a timely manner to avoid unnecessary suffering. In order to address the immediate and longer-term needs of South Sudanese refugees in Khartoum, agencies will also require donor support.

Across states, UNHCR is working to assist Sudan’s refugee response through providing basic services for over 450,000 South Sudanese refugees verified as newly arrived in the country since 2013, in partnership with the Commission for Refugees. UNHCR commends Sudan’s generous and open policy for hosting a large number of refugees.

The Government of Sudan estimate is that there are some 1.3m South Sudanese refugees in the country. UNHCR is working with Sudan to ensure all these refugees are captured through registration.

Ethiopia: The Economy is struggling, not a rising lion as previously forecasted!

For as long as I can remember there gone stories of the amazing rise of the Ethiopian economy, the financial markets and the outputs out of this world. Where the money would grow ten-folds within minutes of its arrival. Like a mirage the number’s must have appeared in front of our eyes and stories that, we are told over the recent years. The Ethiopian powerhouse and the serious contender with Nigeria and South Africa. With their railways, banks and development projects, the powerful dam and all the others. It must have been a ride for the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn, must be so proud of his achievement.

Why I say that, because a booming economy does not do this:

“Ethiopia and World Bank have signed a 1.3 billion dollar grant and loan agreement to enhance equitable services and reduce food insecurity. The agreement was signed by Abraham Tekeste (PhD), minister of Finance & Economic Cooperation (MoFEC) and Carolyn Turk, World Bank’s country director for Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan” (All Africa, 2017).

So when a booming economy, that has such magnificent rates and growth prospects should not and no need for extensive borrowings from the World and subsidiaries, to say they need so is a lie. The debt and the international support for projects and food security is not a sign of a sound and strong economy. More of the latter if I beg to differ. On that, alas the recent weeks has proven this. World Bank was ushered in the end of September, but it is now cash-crunch time.

Not the jolly Captain Crunch, but the credit is due.

“Ethiopia will devalue its currency to attract foreign investment and close the gap in foreign trade, President Mulatu Teshome said at the opening of the bicameral parliament on Monday. He said his government is faced with a serious shortage of hard currency and export trade has dwindled in last three years. Mulatu said major projects like the construction of railway and universities will not be carried out this budget year due to a serious shortage of finances” (ESAT, 2017).

The seriousness is there and it is bleak, when the President Teshome shows up and spread enlightenment to the world. That the economy is fragile and not at its peak, is clear when all the prestige and the giant projects are now put on hold until further notice. Clearly, the financial strains have hit the economy, as well as their exports has given them less hard currency.

It does not go well, when just days ago, when this hit the fan as well:

Double-digit inflation keeps threatening the macroeconomic conditions of the country as the headline inflation rate hit 10.8pc last month, according to the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)- the highest since October 2015. It is in contrary with the target of the government in the second edition of Growth & Transformation Plan (GTP II) to keep inflation in a single digit. The hike in the price of cereals such as teff, maize, wheat, barley, beans and sorghum coupled with holiday-driven price upsurge is the primary reason for the inflationary pressure last month, keeping the food inflation stagnant around 13pc.“As September is a time of multiple holidays, it is believed to influence the increase in the inflation rate,” the report of CSA reads” (Berhane, 2017).

That the cash crunch and the double-digit inflation hits the Republic is not a good look. The proof of the currency value falling, lack of hard currency and new Multi-National loans proves that the Financial Sector and Financial Institutions are strained. There is nothing more to give, it is just bones and not meat. It is just a matter of time before the boiling bones gives no taste to stew as well!

In addition, you the economy is bonkers when their agency spread out this sort of tales, at the time the devalued currency is told to the public on other platforms.

This is from the Ethiopian News Agency:

“The diplomats, who observed the government’s direction at the joint session of the parliaments, whom ENA has talked to also forecasted the country`s economic growth to be amplified in better manner referring the current stability of the nation. Ambassador of Bangladesh to Ethiopia Monirul Islam said the growth that Ethiopia’s economy has witnessed was ‘wonderful’ despite the drought and other problems. “It was 10.9 percent and this year I hope it will be more than that because there is a good rain, everything is good, the state of emergency has been lifted and everything is normal”. “So I think the economy should perform better especially in the agriculture sector as well as in the industry sector”, he pointed out” (ENA, 2017).

I do not know if Ambassador Islam lives in alternative reality or trying to sugarcoat the situation of the dire economic state that the Republic is facing, but it makes good propaganda for the ones who still want the fantastic picture spread around the globe. That the Ethiopian economy is sound and still growing. However, it is hard to grow when you lack currency, you have growing inflation and you are borrowing more funds. I do not know, which economy or financial system that it works splendid in. Certainly not this one.

In addition, the news of the financial rising tiger or lion of Ethiopia has been a mirage, a fraud and play for the world to see. At this stage and in time, it is far from it. The Ethiopian economy is plummeting and at amp speed. If you eat up the crap the ENA serves you, it must certainly serve your kind, but it is not reality. The President even said so, the reports are striking and the added loans proves the dire state.

The ones who is the most hurt. It is the citizens who needs the hard currency to buy food and live, they are punished for the reckless care of the financial system. They are the ones who suffers, because of how the state decided to conduct their affairs. They are the ones who feels the inflation, the rising prices and still has to get by. It is not right, but that is how it is. The Ethiopian government should subsidize and make sure the people get enough. However, do not expect that. This is from the same government that sent Agazi squad to Amhara and Oromia to kill and destroy. They do not care, unless they have too or if it keep them in power. Peace.

Reference:

All Africa – ‘Ethiopia: World Bank Assents U.S.$1.3 Billion Finance to Ethiopia’ (30.09.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201710090243.html?utm_campaign=allafrica%3Aeditor&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=promote%3Aaans%3Aabljpw

Berhane, Samson – ‘Gov’t Sees Double Digit Inflation, Again’ (08.10.2017) link: https://addisfortune.net/articles/govt-sees-double-digit-inflation-again/

ESAT – ‘Ethiopia President Says Country is Broke’ (09.10.2017) link: https://www.tesfanews.net/ethiopias-president-says-country-financial-crisis/

ENA – ‘Diplomats Laud Economic Performance of Ethiopia’ (10.10.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/economy/item/3814-diplomats-laud-economic-performance-of-ethiopia

 

South Sudan: “Subject: Appointment of Party’s General Secretary and Executive Secretaries of South Sudan United Movement” (07.10.2017)

SPLM Leaders Former Political Detainees (FDs) letter to IGAD: “Visit of IGAD Foreign Ministers Delegation on the ARCSS Pre-Revitialization Consultation Forum” (07.10.2017)

President receives special message from South Sudan’s Salva Kiir (03.10.2017)

President Museveni and General Ajong discussed UPDF – SPLA security cooperation and training.

KAMPALA, Uganda, October 3, 2017 – President Yoweri Museveni has today met a delegation of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), led by General James Ajong Mawut who is the Chief of Defense Forces of Republic of South Sudan.

During the meeting which took place this afternoon at the State Lodge in Mbale Municipality, Eastern Uganda, General Ajong conveyed a special message and a letter of appreciation from President Salva Kiir of South Sudan to President Museveni, commending him for the continued support and solidarity with the government of South Sudan.

President Museveni and General Ajong discussed UPDF – SPLA security cooperation and training.

Uganda and South Sudan have long standing economic and security interests. Uganda is also host to over one million refugees fleeing from the instability in South Sudan.

Opinion: CSO’s Paper to IGAD HLRF is revealing!

There were many insights and deep stuff in the CSO Report to IGAD, which has been written and submitted to Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has put their stakeholders, and their pride into trying to forge a peace, even after the peace agreement of 2015 has been shot into tatters recently. The IGAD are clearly on a mission to sustain their place and their negotiations with the parties in South Sudan. As the conflict and battles within becomes more dire, when the consequences of not doing it, is more life in danger and a more uncertain future for the republic. Clearly, all parties knows what at stake, as the IGAD have proven not to be to impartial, as well as the foreign intervention from Uganda, has been in favor of the SPLM-IG, clearly, there are many more obstacles to fix before the due date of the newly proposed peace mediation. That is why the paper from the CSO is revealing, especially, the part if IGAD fail, which I think it will do, as long as people are sidestepping the SPLM-IO and the newly created militias and opposition forces. Look at their take if the IGAD fails, which is such a dossier.

“IGAD faces a daunting task in securing a political settlement through the HLRF process. Not only must it contend with the fracturing of armed groups and the proliferation of new political formations, but divisions among IGAD member states themselves undermine the diplomatic leverage that mediators have at their disposal. From the very start of the conflict, it has been clear that the four frontline states of Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda are essential to the solution of the conflict in South Sudan. Only they can offer the incentives and disincentives that are needed to bring the various factions together behind the terms of a political settlement. To date, the vested interests of some political elites in the region have prevented IGAD from mounting a united response. The next few months will show whether the situation in South Sudan has reached a point at which it poses such a serious threat to regional peace and stability that the region is forced to respond accordingly, or whether IGAD’s ability to respond will once again be undermined by narrowly defined state or personal interests” (CSO Paper, September 2017).

“If the HLRF process fails, the IGAD region must accept that it is unable to resolve the crisis in South Sudan and hand over responsibility for the mediation effort to the AU. The four frontline states can still engage in the context of an AU-led mediation, but they should not be able to dominate the process and use it as a forum to promote their own narrowly defined interests. The AU should start preparing itself now by developing a political strategy for a possible AU-led mediation effort. This strategy should go beyond any eminent personalities that may be appointed to lead the process to consider how the AU approach would differ from that of IGAD. In addition, IGAD and the AU should make clear to the warring parties that if they fail to agree on a political settlement in the context of the HLRF, IGAD and the AU will request that punitive measures be imposed on parties who undermine the process. Such punitive measures are long past due and are the only means to communicate to the leadership on all sides of the political divide that the African region will no longer allow the people of South Sudan and the region to be held hostage to their leaders’ pursuit of power” (CSO Paper, September 2017).

It is really telling how they are explaining in these passages, the reality of the daunting task ahead, as the SPLM/A and SPLM-IO are the key component to the crisis and stalemate, but this in effect has created many more enemies of both. The former SPLM/A and SPLM-IO who has become their own parties and their militias, are within all reason making the road-map for peace more hectic. As there isn’t just two leaders who wants to be supreme. But a dozens who wants to topple them both, by all means and with full force. This should not overshadow the need for diplomatic and negotiations between SPLM/A and SPLM-IO, neither stop the SPLM/A reunification project, even how flawed both has been.

The marginalized and silenced parts of the discussions, the rebellions against both parties, should be looked at if the IGAD HLRF Process is a honest one. If the IGAD approach should bear fruits, the SPLM-IO ghost is haunting the process and the dialogue. As well as all the former generals who has created their own outfits, who needs to included, unless they want to create a new fragile peace. That could blow up any second after the ink has run dry. Peace.

Reference:

CIVIL SOCIETY OPTIONS PAPER ON THE IGAD HIGH-LEVEL REVITALIZATION FORUM (September 2017)

 

Communiqué of the 720th meeting of the PSC, at the ministerial level, on the situation in South Sudan (20.09.2017)