Sometimes, just sometimes you wonder what is going and why, why is this happening and what is their reasons for doing so. Now the Ethiopian Revolutionary People’s Defence Force (EPRDF) are planning to build a navy. That means warships, submarines and docks, which can have these boats. If this Lake Tana or the Blue Nile or if they planning to be stationed in either Djibouti or Somalia. Who knows, but they are not having that many options. Since, they are landlocked.
This is coming, the day after Council of Ministers accept the start to draft to lift the State of Emergency. This is happening as the Chinese is winding down their investments as the debt is growing and lack of foreign exchange. You can wonder why they want to invest in that now and for what reason?
Because, you don’t extend your reach and your military, either on land, in the air or at sea. Unless, you having a plan or any ideas of usage. If they are doing this to secure the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), if they are planning to have boats on the boarders to Sudan on the Blue Nile. Because that would make sense, but they could just order Long Range Missiles and Anti-Aircraft Guns, if they we’re afraid and station them there. A navy there doesn’t make sense in that regard.
I just wonder what is the use, unless, they want supremacy all over the Horn of Africa. If the Ethiopians want a giant military and navy, to secure power over Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. That they want to be the kingpins in the area. Because that is the only thing that makes sense. If they does this, will they work together with UNSOM and fight piracy in and around the coast of Somalia? What else are they supposed to do?
It is not like they got a coastline, they don’t have fisheries and foreign troops landing on their coast to get into Ethiopia and invade it. You have either an army and navy for defense or attack. They could be a standby force, a standby navy, but why spend fortunes on warships, on submarines and other naval boats that are there for one reason. You don’t get military boats to go fishing, neither to do research or even something needed at sea.
Warships is to stop enemy from getting to shore, to secure the harbors and the coasts from enemy forces. You don’t have a navy to have funky ships at port and YMCA discos. If so, then the Ethiopian government can take an expedition to San Francisco and see the sights.
I look forward to hear the reasoning for a landlocked country investing in a navy, unless their securing the GERD. That is the defensive military thing, that would make sense, unless they are annexing other coastal lines close by their borders.
What else will these vessels do?
I do not have the answers, but asking questions, that should be within reason, as it is foolish not ask this. I would do the same thing with any landlocked country. When you don’t have a coastline, when you don’t have a border to the ocean. What need do you have of a navy?
Unless, you plan to annex coastal border land with both soldiers, tanks and warships. Peace.
“When one with honeyed words but evil mind
Persuades the mob, great woes befall the state.” – Euripides
As things are standing in Ethiopia there are minor changes in the ways it is perceived, this mostly because of how the new Prime Minister is carrying himself. This being Dr. Abiy Ahmed whose been all around and visiting all parts of the Republic. However, there been continued oppression, detaining and killings during his tenure in the regions where the State of Emergency has hit the hardest. This being in Oromia, Somalia Region and Amhara. All of these areas has been hit hard by the State of Emergency, where the police and military, the Aghazi Squad has attacked civilians and killed too.
“Addis Ababa, June 2, 2018 (FBC) – The Council of Ministers in its today’s regular meeting approved a draft law that lifts the State of Emergency. The draft will be sent to the House of People’s Representatives (HPR) for consideration. The Council noted that law and order has been restored. Ethiopia declared a six-month State of Emergency on February 16, 2018” (Fana Broadcasting Company – ‘Council of Ministers approves draft bill to lift State of Emergency’ 02.06.2018).
Therefore I am reluctant about this move, as long as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) is in power and using their methods. I wonder what is their safeguard and their next move, as they have done everything they can to silence dissidents. This being silencing phone-lines, blocking internet, stopping people from having sit-down strikes and generally banning all possible protests. While making activists, writers and everyone involved in these matters into criminals. Even as they fight for liberty and justice over their own. The EPRDF comes with the military as a hostile takeover and takes control. Instead of being in dialogue. That is what the State of Emergency and the provisions of the Commando Post is all about.
There is no reflection or anything saying that they will really change, the SOE now was really to stall for time. The demonstrations and the protest spirit is not gone, there are still lingering thousands upon thousands in jail. Even as high-profiled individuals has been released. The majority is still behind bars and the lack of freedom is still there. The New PM hasn’t changed that or the laws, not tried to repeal the Anti-Terror laws, which has used to oppress civilians who protest against the EPRDF.
We can hope for change, but its still lots of the same. The powers are within the same structures, a small change in the cabinet, but the reality is that Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is still controlling the EPRDF. The government and its institution isn’t significantly changed, even as the Prime Minister has been in talks with Oromo Opposition leaders. That is positive step, just as the possible repeal of the SOE. However, as long as no one takes responsibility of the violence, the killings and the arbitrary arrests, there will not be real changes. It will just be patches on the hurt, but when the wounds are evident. The flair and the flames will start again, because no one acted upon the hurt. That should be the vision of the EPRDF, to take responsibility and charge itself. If they are real about the damage and hurt it has given over the years. Not just walk away because your in power.
Who knows if they within a months time repeal the SOE, will they do it again if the Queerro are starting to block the roads and stop businesses from moving goods from Djibouti to Addis. Will the army and the police accept that? As the TPLF and EPRDF will lose foreign exchange on it and also possible profits from doing so. Will they accept that the Amhara are also closing the roads into the capital. Would they accept it, as they are not listened to or even considered. As long as the government are caring about themselves. That is the reality.
This is a positive step, but if it is not followed up by more heartfelt measures, the reality will hit the fan and the possible violence will appear, because the government haven’t shown another side or character. Peace.
“S-O-S, please someone help me
It’s not healthy for me to feel this
Y-O-U are making this hard” – Rihanna on ‘SOS’ released 14. February 2006
This is what it seems like, it doesn’t seem like economic viable effort or worth enterprise, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) needs to loan and get donor aid valued $41 million United States Dollars, it seems more like quick rich scheme, than anything else. Borrowing funds to print currency never seems like a good idea, especially when the state has itself 300 external stakeholders keeping this in order and fragile alliances all over. You can wonder who will benefit from the Somali Shillings (SoS).
Out of the measure of doing so, 26 million will go to procurement and printing the shillings, the 4 denominations they are put in. This all is done in measure against counterfeit, but nearly none of the loaned or donor-funded money will go to that, only 0.06 million US Dollars. Meaning a measly and insignificant amount money will actually go to stop the counterfeit currency floating around.
That is why I am suspicious, if they are just thinking of printing them, and dropping them in the markets in Mogadishu, how will this benefit the citizens and the Federal Republic itself?
Because it seems like another piece of Bond-Notes, where the funding of the enterprise is bound on foreign currency and foreign bound loans, which makes it an extra debt on the state. As the IMF is co-sponsor and the one behind the enterprise, they are securing as a foreign entity, the national and federal currency. Which happens to be SOS. All of that should send the smoke-signals and the tapping on the floor. Send the signal “SOS”.
Because they state: “This letter provides IMF staff’s assessment on the readiness of the Central Bank of Somalia (CBS) to issue a new national currency under Phase I which will be limited to exchanging the counterfeit Somali shilling notes currently in circulation with new currency” (IMF, 11.05.2018). That is why I question it too, since so little of the funding for the project goes to counterfeit operations, will it be successful? Do they think the magic wand of new paper-money will compensate for the one that is counterfeit right now? How will they go about the exchange from old to new, and will they do that with all currency or will they accept the old-counterfeit to get rid off all fake currency floating around?
Seemingly, it seems like borrowing more money, to print a new line of SOS, which is an SOS to the world. Also, where the IMF needs a huge sum of money, to procure and print them, while the state only get scraps and no direct plan to really eradicate the counterfeits. Because they are only putting up a Counterfeiting Framework, but not initially working against it. Meaning, it is just borrowing and printing new shillings, without any purpose of actually combatting the problem itself. Which is rare thing to do.
Let see how this goes, but I hope this is not a IMF sponsored Bond-Notes project, because that is how it seems like, borrowing funds and donor funding to get new currency floating. Not a good idea, more issues as I see it. That is just me though. Peace