South Sudan: J. Canon Clement Janda – “Withdrawal from Membership of National Dialogue” (03.05.2017)

South Sudan: Progressive Democrats – “Appointment of Muslim Gore as Secretary of Information” (04.05.2017)

In the Teso Region they are eating termites to survive the famine!

There are something deeply wrong, so sincerely wrong when the citizens doesn’t get needed food relief and have to eat termites and insects to survive. This is the state of the famine now in Teso Region, in Katakwi, Amuria, Bukedea and Kaberamaido district.

Mr Robert Okitoi, the Amuria District council chairperson, said “The situation is bad, people are now eating termites. I think the government should just declare a state of emergency for the regions of Teso, Karamoja and Lango.” (NTV Uganda, 01.06.2017). On the 26th April 2017 the Parliament has passed a motion to declare ‘State of Emergency’ in Uganda, but the President and the State House has not done anything about it.

Still, a local farmer wrote a piece to the Chimp Reports that has some valuable assessments:

The current hunger in Teso has largely been attributed to drought, while this assertion may hold some truths; there is increasingly evidence that the Ministry of Teso Affairs has not done its part. Hunger in Teso is as a result of both internal and external factors. For many years, the region has been experiencing declining productivity and this was recently worsened by drought. For districts like Ngora, Bukedia and Kumi, land fragmentation has heavily affected productivity” (…) “Clearly besides drought, Teso food systems are in a crisis and our expectation was that the Ministry of Teso affairs working with other stakeholders would work to address this problem. Our view is that hunger should be among the ‘affairs’ that Ministry of Teso Affairs should be engaged in.Agriculture remains a major livelihood for our people in Teso and therefore we require urgent response from Ministry of Teso Affairs on its plans to help our people get out of the current hunger crisis”(Akorikin, 2017).

This here proves that the drought is just the last piece of the straw in a bigger problem, that even the State Ministry has not been in-charge and had the oversight of the Teso Region. There are lacking the support they need. Still, the government still have done something now and then. Like this one relief to Kaberamaido district: “Kaberamaido district has finally received 12, 000 kilograms of relief food from government valued at Shillings 33 million. Kaberamaido is among the districts battling a severe food crisis resulting from crop failure due to prolonged drought. The most affected areas in the district are Ochero, Bululu, Kobulubulu, Kaberamaido, and Apapai sub counties. With over 5,000 households facing starvation representing about half of the total population in the district, the 12,000 kilograms of flour delivered is far from solving the food crisis” (Odongo, 2017). That means on the 30th April 2017, the government delivered 12.000kgs of flour that is estimated to be 231,000 citizens in the district alone. Therefore, you don’t have to be rocket scientist to know that this food relief to the one district isn’t enough…

The minister for Relief and Disaster Preparedness, Hilary Onek, has offered a bit of advice to the hunger-stricken; stop selling the little food you have left. Onek said the weather has become so unreliable for Ugandans to hold on to the little hope for better yields. “They should consider family needs first before selling all the food. Districts like Lira had a lot of food but it [food] was sold to traders from Kenya, South Sudan and even Rwanda because people want money,” he said in an interview. Asked whether government would consider banning the sale of food to outsiders, Onek said they wouldn’t, in the spirit of the East African Community. “That is not an option we will consider; we only want people to behave responsibly to take care of their family needs before they sell all the food,” he said” (UMDF, 2017).

So now the Minister Onek gives advice to the impoverished citizens, so that they are careful with their food stocks, as the relief of the districts are not up-to par. Therefore, that they didn’t stock the extra foods and now they tell the families to take of it. The government could have used their resources and built food-stocks, instead of living hand to mouth. The small-time farmers in the Teso-Region certainly, needs more than fear of selling what they don’t have, they need support and food relief.

The state also has to facilitate the farmers, not in Operation Wealth Creation or Jerry-Can irrigation, but real projects, storage of food-stocks and recreate farmers Co-Ops in the districts and sub-counties to collectively earn and work together to get better yields and also productivity in general. But that isn’t a scheme and way the National Resistance Movement can corrupt or thieve the funds from. Therefore, that will not happen and is the reason why the similar institutions are gone during the decades of President Museveni.

The Teso Region and these district needs help, the man-made famine together with the drought that has worsen it. So the Government has to charge and actually make a difference, not just thieve monies away from Kampala. Peace.

Reference:

Akorikin, Francis – ‘OPINION: Government Should Review the Relevance of Ministry of Teso Affairs’ (05.05.2017) link: https://www.chimpreports.com/opinion-government-should-review-the-relevance-of-ministry-of-teso-affairs/

Odongo, Ronald – ‘Kaberamaido Receives 12,000 KGs of Food Relief’ (30.04.2017) link: https://ugandaradionetwork.com/story/govt-delivers-12000-kilograms-of-posho-worth-ugx-33m-to-famine-hit-residents

Uganda Media Development Foundation (UMDF) – ‘HILARY ONEK TO HUNGER VICTIMS: DON’T SELL FOOD’ (01.05.2017) link: https://www.umdf.or.ug/?q=content/hilary-onek-hunger-victims-don%E2%80%99t-sell-food

Ugandan economy could get Oil-Shocks due to external factors, recent BoU report claims!

Surprise, surprise the Bank of Uganda (BoU) has made a working paper on the possible consequences of the oil price, the oil exports and the oil imports on the Ugandan economy. This didn’t exceed my expectation of a report or paper, but said enough to clearly anticipate changes in the economy with the coming export. Even as the BoU called the domestic oil production in embryonic stages, which means the real impact will come when it is closer petroleum production the GDP and CPI feel more impact of the oil prices and the volumes exported from the Lake Albert Basin.

That the Ugandan State and the Republic of Uganda, should know that the fresh foreign exchange and currency into the economy, as the domestic parts of petroleum is not having big impact on the economy! Still, the export can change it as the oil prices and change the consumer price index for instance. Take a look!

One such shock that is a source of major concern and risks to monetary policy-making in Uganda is the oil shock. To our knowledge, the effects of oil shocks in Uganda, to date, have not yet been analyzed. The objective of this paper therefore, is to analyze the nature and importance of oil shocks to Uganda’s economy in a dynamic framework” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 4, 2017).

According to the Uganda’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (2012), oil provides about 10 percent of Uganda’s energy requirements – the rest is sourced from the small and underdeveloped and unreliable electricity sub-sector and the cheap biomass energy. The oil sector was also deregulated in 1994, under the broad structural reforms implemented by the Government of Uganda, which effectively eliminated oil prices subsidies. Uganda is endowed with commercially-viable oil reserves, but domestic oil production is in embryonic stages. Consequently, all of the oil-energy needs of the country are satisfied by imports” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 8, 2017).

The results of the variance decomposition in regard to oil shock are not entirely unexpected, given the structure of Uganda’s economy. Oil and its products constitute 8 percent of total intermediate consumption and 10 percent of energy requirements. In addition, oil is crucial to electricity supply in Uganda because hydro-electricity is unreliable and insufficient. This implies little or no substitutability of oil with hydro-electric energy in production in case of adverse oil shock, which could justify the long-run 20 percent variance in output due to oil shocks. Regarding consumer prices, the small percentage of variance in consumer prices due to oil shocks is justified by the small weight of oil in the CPI basket. Oil constitutes about 1 percent in the 2009/10 rebased CPI basket, of which 0.8 percent is oil for personal transportation and 0.2 percent a source of liquefied energy at home. These numbers are not surprising given that over 75 percent of the population live in rural areas and depend mainly on wood and charcoal as a source of energy, and that rates of car ownership are generally low. Moreover, the main source of short-run volatility in the Uganda CPI is weather-related factors affecting food prices. This leaves the bulk of fluctuations in the core consumer prices (Comprising over 80 percent) explained by demand” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 18, 2017).

Oil shocks are transmitted through the supply channel, as a shock that increases the international price of oil leads to opposite movements in real output and consumer prices in Uganda” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 19, 2017).

It is hard to say how it could impact and how the petroleum production and exports will change the economy, how the prices and the inflation, as the measure of how much the price of the crude-oil will be at the given time. That the government has secret agreements with oil companies and also agreements with other to build the crude-oil pipeline that goes to Tanzania. Therefore, the reaction in the economy is not yet known, but with the background and knowledge of the how it is now. Most likely a real output and change in consumer prices in Uganda.

That will be an oil-shock no-one can be prepared for. Unless the Government and Parliament created legislation and policies who might soften the change of the economy. Therefore, with this in mind, the National Resistance Movement, the State House and the President Museveni have work to do. That is if they consider the implication the petroleum production and exports will have on inflation, currency value and consumer prices index as well. This report should open some eyes into it, but it should not be surprising. Peace.

Reference:

Nyanzi, Sulaiman & Bwire, Thomas – ‘Working Paper No. 04/2017 – The Macroeconomic responses to Petro Shocks for Uganda’ (May, 2017)

UNMISS peacekeepers repel attack on base in famine area (05.05.2017)

Between 11pm and midnight on Wednesday, the Mission’s Temporary Operating Base (TOB) in Leer town in the former Unity State came under small arms attack from the direction of the nearby Government-held town.

JUBA, South Sudan, May 5, 2017 – An attack on a United Nations base has been strongly condemned by the head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), David Shearer, as being carried out with callous disregard for the lives for civilians as well as UN and humanitarian workers.

Between 11pm and midnight on Wednesday, the Mission’s Temporary Operating Base (TOB) in Leer town in the former Unity State came under small arms attack from the direction of the nearby Government-held town.

The Ghanaian company of UNMISS peacekeeping forces based there quickly and robustly returned fire, deterring the attack.

David Shearer praised the response of the Ghanaian forces for successfully repelling the attack and remaining on high alert throughout the night.

“They reacted in the best possible manner, according to the true spirit of peacekeeping. Their quick defensive action secured the safety of all of the internally displaced people who had sought UN protection adjacent to the base,” he said.

“We strongly condemn the attack, and call on all parties to the conflict to respect the sanctity of UN premises.

“We are here to protect and support the people of South Sudan. The base is located at Leer for that reason. The people are hungry and deprived as the result of the famine. However, it is clear the attackers have no consideration for their plight, given those who most desperately need help will suffer more because of a likely resulting delay of humanitarian aid,” said David Shearer.

There were no UNMISS or other casualties within the base from the attack.

Currently, there is no confirmation of which party to the conflict carried out the attack. UNMISS is continuing to investigate the incident and will examine whether the TOB needs to be further strengthened.

Uganda: Circular No. 7/2017 – Donation by H.E. the President of Books Titled “Sowing the Mustard Seed” (02.05.2017)

Burundi fuel crisis: Not only lacking foreign currency, also gov. sanctioned only 2 Petroleum importers!

The Ministry of Energy Come Manirakiza have ordered that the Petroleum at Petroleum Stations are ordered to only sell their Petroleum products between 07.00 AM to 18.00 PM. As part of the order from the Ministry this was ordered: “Distribution of petroleum products is carried out solely at petrol stations and only during the day, ie from 7.00 am to 6.00 pm. Any distribution of these products outside the above mentioned times and places will be severely penalized in accordance with the law, in particular by closing the service station, seizing the product, administering the fine, without prejudice to criminal proceedings” (Ministere de l’Energie et des Mines – N/Ref: 760/CAB/710/2017).

So the state plans to fine the stations that are selling later and not in scheduled time will be fined and penalized. This is measured done because of the fuel crisis, since the state struggles with imports. To prove how volatile the situation is this part of the measure from the Ministry to the Petroleum Stations:

All distributors of petroleum products are required to distill, without interruption, all the quantity purchased from the importers. For this purpose, they must keep daily records of the distillation indexes of these products informing them, with accuracy on the indexes of departure and closing of the day” (Ministere de l’Energie et des Mines – N/Ref: 760/CAB/710/2017).

There are reports why the Republic under President Pierre Nkurunziza lacks fuel:

“Daniel Mpitabakana, director in charge of petroleum in Burundi’s Ministry of Energy and Mines, attributed the crisis to “a technical problem at the Burundi Revenue Authority.” (…) “Another source said that fuel importers have run short of foreign currency to buy fuel, hence the shortage” (Havyarimana, 2017). So the other source are most like more honest than the Director who doesn’t want the CNDD-FDD to lose face abroad.

But the fuel crisis has been rolling for awhile as the reports goes back into early March, as the world are finally catching on it. Therefore, the reports earlier in March proves how bad it really it is:

““For over two weeks, we have no fuel. I do not know what has happened, “said one“KOBIL” gas station attendant” at Kamenge. The same situation is observed at ‘ENGEN’ gas station in Kamenge, north of Bujumbura. The pump attendant says it has been almost one month they have no fuel” (…) “Only the ENGEN and KOBIL gas stations were not providing fuel but others were supplying fuel to their customers. “We have not had fuel for over two weeks. The ‘KOBIL’ company could not stock up fuel because of the lack of foreign currency,”says the manager of the KOBIL gas station in Musaga, south of Bujumbura” (Manishatse, 2017). So if the East African Report took from this sort of report, the fuel crisis has been running before beginning of February 2017.

Here some other local reports that directly says it all: “OLUCOME, a local corruption watchdog, says mismanagement of the fuel department is the source of the problems. It accuses the director of the department of having shown favouritism and reduced from eight to two (Delta and Interpetrol) the number of companies allowed to import fuel” (Habonimana, 2017). So there are not only the foreign exchange, but also the Director Mpitabakana who has made decisions to cut importers. Therefore, the ones who are left are making it more fragile to get fuel into the republic. Not only just the lacking foreign currency, but also the favoritism of certain importing companies. Peace.

Reference:

Havyarimana, Moses – ‘Fuel shortage adds to Burundi’s woes’ (02.05.2017) link: http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Fuel-shortage-Burundi-economy/2560-3910928-iuyh07/index.html

Habonimana, Innocent – ‘Cause of fuel shortage: “No one will tell you the truth”’ (02.05.2017) link: http://www.iwacu-burundi.org/englishnews/cause-of-fuel-shortage-no-one-will-tell-you-the-truth/

Manishatse, Lorraine Josiane – ‘Fuel shortage in Bujumbura city’ (07.03.2017) link:http://www.iwacu-burundi.org/englishnews/fuel-shortage-in-bujumbura-city/

Uganda: Executive Order on Dott Services and General Nile Company (21.04.2017)

Burundi: “Association pour la Memoire des Martyrs des Manifestations de 2015” – “APM2015” en Sigle – Le Ministre de l’Interieur et de la Formation Patriotique (03.05.2017)

The Calvary’s villain Kayihura gets a renewed contract to harass and intimidate the public until 2020!

Again and again, the cronies and loyal head honcho’s are usually put in order so that the Wonderful Dictator has his check and balances in order. So that the Republic is following his drum and his vision. The man who follows the orders of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his ruling regime. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) have not used the Police Force only to fight crime, but more to intimidate the political opponents and the media.

Therefore that his contract was renewed until 2020 wasn’t unexpected, as Museveni wants a loyal man in charge of the Police, to do his dirty-work and stand on the front-line taking all the heat. That is what the Police Spokesperson does and what the IGP Kayihura does. Even with the backlog of cases going far back into history and pending treason charges on high-profile individuals like Obusingwa bwa Rwenzururu Charles Wesley Mumbere and Dr. Kizza Besigye. He still gets renewed without anything else to show, that he at least kept the Opposition more silent and has in his time killed of demonstrations!

So the IGP Kayihura, the ruthless man who leads the Police Force, who has embezzled funds and is as mafia as it can be, are now in charge for longer. While murders, abductions and threats are getting more common. As con-men and thieves are continuing rooming, as the state fails on its duty. While the Army and President has supreme power over them all. So he can use the relationship and the knowledge of how Kayihura uses the Police Force to misspend monies to gain fortunes. Therefore, because of the knowledge of the ICT scandal and others proves that those allocated maladministration is pay-off for the loyalty between them. A conniving man as the President, needs to hang around similar crowds and people, who also wants to eat of the State Reserves, if there is a self-righteous individual, than he might whistle-blow and show the secrets in public. None of these fellas like that!

A little history to why he became appointed IGP in the first place:

The appointment last month of Maj-Gen Kale Kaihura as IGP has been met with some indignation. A man seen as a military hardliner close to State House, Kaihura has long been a Museveni assistant, either commanding operations in Congo or Sudan, in the Revenue Authority, or acting as Chief Political Commissar for the army. Opposition politicians believe the army is being sent to the police to help the regime rig the 2006 elections. But they say that the government is breaking the law in the creation of shadow forces. Part of the reason for the ongoing expansion of the police force ahead of the 2006 elections are the inadequacies noted in the last presidential and parliamentary elections. At the time, it was reported that the police force was only about 15,000 strong. This number was expected to man 17,000 polling stations at the time. The Parliamentary Report on election violence in the 2001 polls said the disparity was used as an excuse for bringing other armed forces into the elections” (Kaiza, 2005).

I am sure no-one else has gotten the ill-educated police force to detain more Opposition and civil activist than the Police Force under IGP Kayihura. He must have had wet-dreams on the day the Public Order Management Act came into effect, it gave him so much more powers than the colonial laws or even the Penal Code! Man, nobody has interpreted and founds ways of getting people detained for being part of political activity. While he himself has been the shadow and the proud leader at NRM festivities. Like the Police Force are only for them and not for public safety.

The IGP have used force, violence against civilians and hit on public when in need. They have tear-gassed so many and imported anti-riot gear for massive amount funds. While the schools are in a sorry state and the hospitals lack medicines. You know that his department and agency is important in the NRM regime and under President Museveni.

IGP Kayihura is a key figure and the man who has no quarrel to silence the media nor the opposition. He can let killers go loose, let public violators and others roam the streets. This has been proven with the tactical training of thousands of Crime Preventers who has gone far intimidate and harass the public. This together are together with the small-gangs vicious attempt of justice, that turns into public display of injustice.

Like the story of the Investigator Ronald Leonard Egesa:

Yesterday, as I drove along Bombo Rd to go and attend a family engagement, I was kidnapped by overzealous operatives purportedly working on behalf of the Police leadership. They blindfolded me, drove my car away and detained me in a house that I suspect to be in Naguru or Muyenga” (…) “After midnight, a bulky figure only referred to as ‘afande’ appeared to interrogate me. In our exchange, he was pushing me to tell them who is using me and other journalists to fight Gen. Kale Kayihura and the Police. I politely asked him to go through my phone contacts and call log. After this, he simply remarked that it seems things are complicated. He stepped out, worked his phone and came back to ask if I wanted to leave. It was 1 am and I could not trust my captors to safely deliver me to town in the dead of the night. I asked to be released in the morning after 7 am” (…) “’Safe’ houses are back. Panda Gari might slowly be returning. The philosopher said that ‘there is nothing new under the sun’ I know very many comrades, distinguished officers and men who are now ashamed to be serving in the current Uganda Police Force” (The Investigator, 02.05.2017).

So this is the Police Force that has returned under IGP Kayihura and President Museveni. This sort of affairs and brigades that uncontrolled and does their own justice, which in turns edges the tyranny, as the journalists and opposition members are under-fire because of them. The Police are impartial and used as a tool of oppression. Both Museveni and Kayihura knows it. Therefore, Museveni pay back for the loyalty, even as the Public is tired of Kayihura and his own understanding of justice.

The serving and trust to the Police isn’t there, they are coming spawning to eat of the ones they pass by, with orders and bills for the ones who are near. Making minor offenses into murder if they could. The Police Force and Police Command wants to control the public, not keep them safe, but monitor the elements that are issues to the State House. The knowledge of the intelligence gathering and the tapping of the citizens. Together with all sort tricks and illegal activity around Kasangeti and around the other opposition parties. So the Police Force are not there for the people, but for the President, alone!

So was it surprising the man who is doing the dirty work for Museveni and done it for so, long would get to do it longer? Well, I am not surprised about it all. What would be more surprising if the President and hired someone honest and who would secure true safety, but that is Museveni’s goal anyway?

Museveni’s goal is to have power and keep power by every means necessary and at total price, even destroying all civilian life and civil society, as journalism and opposition, also other who questions the powers of the government as NGO’s who has been robbed and destroyed. Without anyone taken to court or charged for the petty theft. That is the Uganda under the National Resistance Movement (NRM)… the steady progress of safe houses, abduction of people who questions the powers to be and the others who are near people of opposition. Might get hit by sticks, live-bullets and tear-gas, because the Police is for the NRM and not for the Public Safety. That is the paradigm under Museveni and Kayihura, as he has extended his contract, don’t expect them to change quick. As the volatile state of affairs isn’t quitting shortly, as the wonderful dictator needs people to respect his authority and not his just hands. Peace.

Reference:

Kaiza, David – ‘Growing concern as Ugandan army ‘infiltrates’ police force’ (24.11.2005) link: http://humanrightshouse.org/noop/page.php?p=Articles/6974.html&d=1