Tag: Yoweri Kaguta Museveni
NRM/01/KLE/15: Letter from Justine Kasule Lumumba to Amama Mbabazi (21.07.2015) – NRM CEC Press Release (25.07.2015)
President Pierre Nkurunziza (CNDD-FDD) is elected for the third term in Burundi and the EAC Election Observer Mission – Preliminary Statement on the Election
Today the results came from the Electoral Commission in Burundi wasn’t unexpected. We all knew that would happen. It’s not really much to say. We all expected it and there wasn’t really much news value in that. Other than the Government of Burundi will go into an uncertain future. With People of Burundi will not recognizing that Pierre Nkurunzia is again for the third time president of the Country. The president can use the High Court judgement, but that doesn’t stop the foreign pressure or local dissidence. The situation will be fragmented and sore wound after the violence want give more legitimacy to the President of Burundi. EAC had Election Observation Mission on the Election Day and has followed the election apparently. While the African Union and European Union suspended their missions and observers to it. So that they wanted to show that they didn’t’ want legitimacy to the actions of the president. There been oppressive actions towards the opposition in the country after the Coup d’état in the country. I think that the Preliminary Statement of the Election is worthy for everybody who follow Burundi show read it. Enjoy. Peace.
The East African Community deployed an Election Observation Mission (EOM) to the Republic of Burundi for the 21 July 2015 Presidential Election. Hon. Abubakar Zein, a Member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), was the Head of the Mission and has released the Preliminary Statement of the Mission as below:
The East African Community Election Observation Mission to the Presidential Election of 21 July 2015 in the Republic of Burundi – PRELIMINARY STATEMENT, Bujumbura, 23 July 2015-
- INTRODUCTION
- In response to the invitation by the Independent National Electoral Commission of Burundi (CENI); the Standing Decision of the East African Community (EAC) Council of Ministers to observe elections in all EAC Partner States and the Decision of the 3rd EAC Emergency Summit on Burundi of 6 July 2015, the EAC deployed an Election Observation Mission (EOM) to the Republic of Burundi for the 21 July 2015 Presidential Election.
- The EAC EOM was led by Hon. Abubakar Zein, a Member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) and comprised 25 members drawn from the EALA, National Electoral Management Bodies, National Human Rights Commissions, Ministries of EAC Affairs, and Civil Society Organizations from four EAC Partner States namely the Republic of Kenya, the Republic of Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the Republic of Uganda. The Mission deployed seven teams to observe the polling and counting processes in Bujumbura, Gitega, Ngozi, Kirundo, Mwaro, Muramvya, Karuzi, Muyinga, Rumonge, Bururi and Makamba Provinces.
- The EAC has followed the Burundi electoral process since January 2015 through consultative sessions by the EAC Eminent Persons (PEP), Pre-Election Assessment Mission (PEMi), the EAC Council of Ministers and EAC Emergency Summits. Through these initiatives, the EAC, while appreciating the state of affairs, identified challenges facing the electoral process and made appropriate recommendations. The Mission’s findings are also informed by the report of the aforementioned initiatives.
- This statement contains preliminary findings, recommendations and conclusions made by the Mission based on independent observation, interaction with electoral stakeholders including the CENI, political parties, civil society organizations, security agencies, and the media, among others. As the electoral process is still ongoing, this statement limits itself to the assessment made up to the polling and results counting processes. In due course, the Mission will avail a more detailed final report on the electoral process in Burundi through the EAC policy organs.
- PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
General Political Context
- The political context of the 2015 presidential election has been characterized by the controversy surrounding the incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza’s candidature for a third term. This was viewed by some actors as a violation of the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of 2000 and the Constitution 2005 of Burundi. Other actors maintained that the first term did not count thus, the incumbent qualifies to vie in the 2015 presidential election. The incumbent’s nomination on 25 April 2015 sparked demonstrations in Bujumbura and some parts of the country which turned violent.
- The confirmation of the incumbent’s candidature by the Constitutional Court resulted in the deterioration of security situation and the prevailing political impasse in the country. There were persistent violent protests and an attempted coup d’état on 13 May 2015 which resulted in scores of deaths and deterioration of the human rights situation in the country. From the foregoing background, there was an influx of refugees estimated to be around 150,000, some of whom were registered voters, to neighboring countries including the Republic of Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, the Republic of Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
- Successive dialogues mediated by the Joint International Facilitation Team comprising the EAC, African Union, United Nations and International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) were convened between Government, opposition representatives and other stakeholders in order to resolve the political stalemate. There were three successive EAC Emergency Summits on the situation in Burundi, and subsequent appointment of President Yoweri Museveni of the Republic of Uganda to facilitate a High Level Political Dialogue in a bid to resolve the political stalemate. The Mission noted that the Political Dialogue was postponed on the eve of the election without consensus.
- The presidential election which was initially scheduled to take place on 26 June 2015 was postponed to 15 July 2015 following a request by the EAC 2nd Emergency Summit and eventually to 21 July 2015. The 3rd EAC Emergency Summit requested for a delay until 30 July 2015 in order to allow for dialogue and consensus building on contentious issues among all the stakeholders.
- Lack of political consensus on key issues on the electoral process during the High Level Dialogue including the election calendar, insecurity, the candidature of the incumbent president, return of refugees, media freedoms and civil liberties, perpetuated uncertainty and fear. This state of affairs contributed to some opposition candidates withdrawing from the presidential race.
Legal and Institutional Framework
- The 2015 presidential election is governed by the Constitution 2005 and a set of laws regulations and decrees. The Constitution provides for fundamental rights and freedoms which are important for the participation of citizens in the electoral process. Article 8 of the Constitution provides for election by equal and universal suffrage. The suffrage is also extended to the citizens in diaspora thereby guaranteeing their enfranchisement.
- Whilst the framework is adequate for the conduct of democratic elections in Burundi, there have been violations of the fundamental civil and political rights that limited citizen participation in the electoral process. For instance, the attempted coup d’état heightened the closure of several private media outlets thereby impacting on the rights to freedom of expression. Similarly, this denied the citizens an alternative source of information that is critical in making an informed choice in the election.
- The amendment of the Electoral Code 2014, introduced the use of a single ballot paper that replaced the multiple ballot system. The Mission is of the opinion that this reform is a positive measure as it is able to contribute to enhancing the secrecy of the ballot as well as the overall cost of administration of elections but needed to be accompanied by adequate voter education.
- The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) is the election management body in Burundi comprising five commissioners who are appointed by the President subject to approval of the National Assembly. While CENI enjoys constitutional independence, it does not enjoy the confidence of a substantial proportion of stakeholders. The desertion of the Vice President and one Commissioner as well as withdrawal of members of the Catholic Church from the CENI structures in May 2015 impacted on public’s perception on the credibility of CENI.
- The Constitutional Court has the jurisdiction to arbitrate election disputes for Presidential and legislative elections in Burundi. It is also tasked with announcement of final election results for presidential election. While the Court constitutionally enjoys independence and impartiality, the desertion of the Vice President of the Court impacted on public’s perception on the credibility of the Court.
Voter Registration and Voters’ Roll
- There were a total of 3,849,728 registered voters for the 2015 elections. The first voter registration exercise was conducted between November and December 2014. The CENI made efforts to enfranchise more voters in March 2015 through a partial voter registration upon the request of political parties and also allowed for inspection of the voters’ roll by the parties.
- The Mission noted that the two-step voter registration process was operationally cumbersome. The registrants were issued with a récépissé (waiting slip) and were later to be issued with a voter’s card. The two-step process affected the distribution of the voter cards as the cards had not been distributed by 26 May 2015, being the initial date of parliamentary and communal elections before the postponement of polls.
Election Campaign
- All political parties and candidates should be allowed to campaign freely as per the law and with due regard to expression of fundamental freedoms of association, assembly and speech in line with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. According to the Electoral Code, the election campaign lasts for 14 days.
- The campaign environment was generally tense and characterized by fear and uncertainty. The political stalemate surrounding the candidature of the incumbent president, concerns relating to the security of candidates and their supporters and the subsequent postponement of polls impacted the electoral process and implementation of the campaign calendar.
- Some candidates to the presidential election participated in the political dialogue aimed at resolving the political stalemate, a process that took place during the campaign period. This impacted on the candidates’ ability to solicit for votes and for the voters to make informed decisions on leaders of their choice. This uncertainty was further accentuated by the reported withdrawal of some candidates from the presidential race, a few days before the polls.
Media environment
- An already constrained media in a shrinking democratic space was further affected by the attempted coup d état. The media environment during the electoral process was affected by the ongoing political stalemate. During the period of the failed coup d’état, five private media outlets were destroyed on 13 and 14 May 2015, namely, Radio and Television REMA, Radio and Television Renaissance, Radio Isanganiro, Radio Publique Africaine (RPA), and Radio Sans Frontiere Bonesha FM. The limited access to alternative sources of information apart from the State broadcaster, especially during the electioneering period, limited space for pluralistic ideas and impacted upon the playing field among political competitors. This in turn constrained the options for voters to be adequately informed on the electoral process and make informed choices.
Security Environment
- The Presidential election in Burundi was held against a backdrop of a tense and violent pre-election period. April to June 2015 witnessed some of the most violent incidents, including a failed coup d’état. Arising from the observed pattern of behaviour over the period, and following a risk assessment mapping, it was noted that the Provinces of Cibitoke, Bubanza and Kayanza had experienced unprecedented violence over the three weeks preceding the presidential polls.
- On the eve of the polls, there were incidents of shooting, grenade attack and subsequent reports of three deaths in Bujumbura which heightened fear among the population. It was also noted that within Bujumbura city, the following areas were restive with unpredictable security environment: Cibitoke, Mutakura, Buterere, Ngagara, Jabe, Nyakabiga, Kanyosha and Musaga. The Mission did not deploy observers in the above captioned regions as a result of the unpredictable security environment. However, there was relative calm in other parts of the country.
Civic and Voter Education
- The conduct of civic and voter education had challenges and was exacerbated by insufficient funding. The withdrawal of funding by development partners impacted on the voter education which led to reprioritization of resources by the Government of Burundi. In this regard, the Mission noted that voter education initiatives were minimal despite CENI having introduced a single ballot paper of which voters needed to be adequately educated.
Polling and Counting Processes
- The EAC observers visited a total of 80 polling stations. The polling process was generally calm and peaceful. Whereas most stations opened on time, some opened later than the stipulated time of 6:00am. In some stations, voting had not started as late as 10.00 am. In Bujumbura, anxiety over insecurity and late arrival of election materials impacted on the timely opening of the polls.
- In most polling stations visited, polling personnel were present and election materials were in adequate quantity. The polling personnel generally managed the polling process in a professional manner. Apart from the CNDD-FDD party agents who were present in all stations visited by the EAC Observers, there was a notable absence of party agents of most opposition political parties despite the obligatory requirement by Electoral Code.
- Beside the EAC observers, the Mission noted the presence of domestic observers and international observers from the MENUB, ICGLR, as well as embassies of Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya. Most polling stations closed at 4pm as stipulated in the Electoral Code. The counting process took place immediately after the closure of the polls and registered no incident in all polling stations visited by EAC observers.
- The EAC observers noted that the voter turnout was generally ranged from low to average in most polling stations visited.
PRELIMINARY RECOMMENDATIONS
- Based on the above findings, the EAC Election Observation Mission to the 21 July 2015 presidential election makes the following recommendations:
a) To All National Stakeholders:
Pursue an all-inclusive and honest dialogue in order to find a sustainable solution to the political impasse prevailing in Burundi.
b) To the Government: Ensure that peace and security is guaranteed for all citizens of Burundi; Undertake measures to ensure that law and order is maintained in a manner that uphold respect for human rights;
iii. Ensure that there is adequate funding for the conduct of elections;
– Undertake measures to ensure safe return and reintegration of refugees in Burundi;
– Undertake capacity building measures to strengthen and enhance the efficiency of governance institutions to promote sustainable democratic development;
– Enhance the capacity of security agencies in respecting the fundamental human rights of the citizens while maintaining law order;
vii. Undertake measures to remove restrictions on media freedom and allow private media.
c) To Parliament:
– Pursue legal and institutional reforms aimed at safeguarding the independence of the CENI and the Judiciary;
– Delink the registration of political parties from the Ministry of Interior.
d) To CENI:
– Consider merging of voter registration and issuance of voters cards in order to enhance operational efficiency and minimize the challenges experienced in the 2015 electoral process;
– Undertake voter education in collaboration with relevant stakeholders to enhance public awareness and participation in electoral processes.
e) To the East African Community:
Continue engagement with all stakeholders to find a sustainable solution to the prevailing political impasse in the country.
f) To the International Community:
Sustain engagement with the Government and all national stakeholders in order to address the prevailing political, social and economic challenges in the country.
CONCLUSION:
The people of Burundi have enjoyed relative peace since the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of 2000, which constitutes the bedrock for building democracy, sustainable peace and development in the country. The Mission notes that the electoral period has been characterised by anxiety and uncertainty. The Mission notes with concern that successive efforts to build consensus through inclusive dialogue among Burundi stakeholders have not been successful.
- The Mission noted that there was relative peace on the polling day. However, the principle of choice was generally hampered by among others, insecurity ( a general feeling of fear and despondency in some parts of the country), confinement of democratic space, civil liberties including freedom of speech, assembly, media, campaigning and the boycott by opposition parties.
- The electoral process fell short of the principles and standards for holding free, fair, peaceful, transparent and credible elections as stipulated in various international, continental as well as the EAC Principles of Election Observation and Evaluation.
- The EAC Observation Mission urges all stakeholders to maintain calm and to re-engage in candid and inclusive dialogue in order to find sustainable solution to the political impasse prevailing in Burundi.
- The Mission would like to thank and extend its profound gratitude to the people and the Government of Burundi, CENI and MENUB for their cooperation during the mission.
Issued at Royal Palace Hotel, Bujumbura this 23 July 2015
Signed by
…………………………………………
Hon. Zein Abubakar
Head of Mission
Uganda – MPS Defence budget for FY 2015/2016 – Quotes and Outtakes:
Here are the quotes and outtakes from the Ministry of Defence in Uganda. Government of Uganda has with this Ministerial Policy Statement (MPS) it shows the value of the Defence Ministry. So here we go to show it!
Vision of the Ministry:
“The vision and commitment of Ministry of Defence is to transform and sustain the UPDF into a modern, professional, efficient and accountable force” (MPS P: 7).
Internal Security Environment:
“The tensions which erupted in the Rwenzori Sub-region in July 2014 were contained by the Security forces. In order to fundamentally resolve the basis of the tensions” (…) “Disarmament Operations in Karamoja have largely been successful and as a result this year’s Tarehe Sita celebrations were held in the Karamoja sub region under the theme” (…) “Terror threats from Al-Shabaab and ADF still persist. Some murders particularly in Eastern Uganda have been linked to ADF elements” (MPS P: 8).
External Security Environment:
“To the north of the country, the security situation in South Sudan remains volatile. Fighting between the warring parties continued despite the IGAD mediation process in Addis Ababa, clashes in the states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile persist” (…) “On the western frontier of our border with DRC, the threat of ADF persists despite ongoing operations by the DRC’S national army, the FARDC and the Intervention brigade of the UN” (…) “UPDF maintains strategic deployments along the border and an intelligence liaison team in Beni town to monitor this security situation. As reported last year, the M23 was militarily defeated and a political agreement reached between the DRC Government and the M23. However, the implementation of the agreed declarations in Nairobi has stagnated. For example of all the M23 ex-combatants that took refuge in Uganda only 182 have been repatriated and over 1000 are still in Uganda” (…) “the Counter LRA Operations. In the course of the year no agreement was reached in regard to Uganda joining the UN multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission for CAR (MINUSCA)” (…) “RTF).Counter LRA Operations in the course of the year were remarkable. Twenty five (25) rebels were killed and seven(7) forced to defect including Brig Dominic Ongwen, who is now being prosecuted by the ICC in the Hague. Over 100 abductees, including women and children were rescued from LRA captivity” (…) “In Somalia, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) continues to register achievements. Key coastal towns, including the Port of Barawe which was the lifeline of Al-Shabaab, were captured. Consequently the 5 sea route portion between the ports of Mogadishu and Kismayo is now under the control of AMISOM forces” (MPS P: 9-11).
Public Enterprise:
“The Uganda Air Cargo Corporation had its license withdrawn by the CAA in the general operation to enforce standards. For most of the year therefore the corporation has suffered heavy losses” (…) “the National Enterprises Corporation (NEC), performance has not been to the desired standards. Accordingly a new managing director is being appointed and the corporation will fundamentally get restructured” (MPS P: 12).
Logistical Support:
“Food stuffs and agricultural products were procured to feed troops on special operations, patients, trainees and ceremonial functions” (…) “It should however be noted that the budget allocation on food is 18.5bn against a requirement of 53bn hence creating a shortfall in the Ministry’s budget. There is need for an increment on the Ministry’s food budget” (…) “the Ministry to enjoy economies of scale and also ensure that the whole force is fully dressed at once. This costed the Ministry 22bn worth of uniforms against the allocated budget of 11b” (…) “Vehicles The Ministry continued servicing the outstanding debt obligation in respect to the acquisition of 109 vehicles. Payment for the same is expected to be completed in FY 15/16. Routine servicing which included procurement of spares and supplies of all vehicles and equipments to keep them operational was undertaken to enable smooth operation of the Ministry. With a meager budget of Shs. 1.573bn, single line tyre dressing of MoD/UPDF vehicles was also undertaken” (…) “Air force continued to consolidate its capability through routine maintenance, overhaul fabrication and procurement of service parts. Assorted workshop and ground tools were acquired to further strengthen the UPDAF capability to conduct routine maintenance. A total of 7.2bn” (…) “In order to facilitate training, the movement of troops and delivery of logistics at the required time and place, the ministry is projected to procure POL products worth Shs 31.976bn against an allocation of 10.3bn” (MPS P: 15).
Welfare:
“Decentralization of payment of government employee’s salaries to line ministries, the ministry continued to use the Integrated Personnel Payroll System (IPPS) to pay salaries of the public officers and pension/gratuity for the soldiers while the salary of the troops continued to be paid through the IRIMS. This has greatly improved payment of salaries as they were received before the 28th day of every month. During this FY 2014/15, the ministry plans to retire 1,112 personnel in phases” (…) “National Medical Stores (NMS), the ministry further strengthened the implementation of this directive by entering into a Memorandum of Understanding with National Medical Stores. Shs 3,019,523,250/= was remitted to NMS to cater for the ministry’s pharmaceuticals requirement” (MPS P: 16).
Infrastructure Development:
Planned Outputs:
“The UPDF will continue with routine border surveillance and further strengthen early warning mechanisms to deal with border insecurity and terrorist groups be it ADF, LRA or any other wherever they may be. UPDF will continue supporting the Uganda Police Force, whenever called upon, to enhance internal peace and security, and controlling the proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW)” (…) “In addition the UPDF will continue contributing to regional peace and stability through regional bodies. Under the African Union and IGAD, continued progress will be made to build the East African Standby Force. The ministry will continue participating in other regional bodies like EAC, IGAD and ICGLR to address collectively regional peace and security issues” (MPS P: 18).
Logistical support under planned outputs:
“Refurbish and maintain UPDAF Aircrafts: UPDF has a number of aircrafts that require regular refurbishment, maintenance, overhaul of engines as well as acquisition of spare parts. In order to enhance UPDAF capability, the MoD will focus on refurbishing and maintaining of the aircrafts” (…) “Machinery and equipment: The Ministry will continue to establish a combination of contracted and sustainable maintenance plan for its equipment in Mogadishu (…) “Defense Force Shop: Sale of duty free building materials to troops and their families and diversity stocks. The shop has 08 outlets (AMISOM)” (…) Defense Strategic Infrastructure Investment Plan (DSIIP): During this planning period, the DSIIP will continue to guide infrastructure development, resource allocation and prioritization of development. The DSIIP will focus on the construction of the referral ; construction of 30,000 housing units for soldiers” (MPS P: 19-21).
Cross cutting issues:
“The UPDF Spouses desk which falls under the Chieftaincy of Political Commiseriate aims at improving the welfare of families of the UPDF soldiers in all Units country-wide through empowering them with skills that will improve their livelihood.With a budget of Shs.40m” (MPS P: 23).
Afterthought:
The opinions and wishes from the Statement are clear. You can see the wishes of the UPDF. The way the government wishes to use and function of the army. From being an important part of the African Union peace missions. To also becoming vital in the close area like in South Sudan where even the advice from the Parliament is to pull out. We all know that isn’t going to happen because of the relationship between Museveni and Kiir. They have fought together and helped each other. Now Museveni supports his neighbor and the SPLM. The UPDF are also already in Somalia and Central African Republic as well. When you see the budget for things you well ask yourself. As well as the Classified Equipment are big number and you starting to wonder what that money goes for. Especially when they call it ‘Classified’ and why it’s that size of cash. But I think the rest of the numbers talk for them self. Peace.
A honest letter to the Ugandan President Museveni after being snubbed by the U.S. President Obama
Dear His Excellency (H.E.) President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni!
I write to you since in the recent day you got rejected to meet with the American President Barrack Obama who will visit Kenya on the 24. July 2015. This is today! And he wouldn’t meet you in Kenya!
It must be a slap on your face Mzee that your ally in America is saying “no to see you”. When he is in your neighborhood. When he steps on land in East African Community and will not see you. Your sending troops for them into Central African Republic on the goose hunt for your lost cause for so long in Northern Uganda. The famous LRA and Joseph Kony! The one man that even the American army want to get rid-off! Then they failed together with Ethiopia in Somalia where you have been charged together to fight Al-Shabab. The Americans are certainly happy that you do this and don’t cost them much compared to send their own troops.
Mzee there many reasons why President Barrack Obama is saying no to see you. He is firstly meeting Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta. Who is turning into Americans ally in the area of late, even if you fight wars for them and use enormous levels of resources as well, still he doesn’t expect your courtesy call. You have been in charge of Uganda since October 1986. Obama is in his last term he has been lucky to only be Head of State in the country from 2009. He is not like you a true and tested leader like you! Even if he has Nobel Peace Prize. He got before really stepping into the office.
He has also been parts of wars. You have sent your own people and now they don’t even talk to you. I am not sure is because you have latest visits abroad to any great western powers. Was to Russia and then you started to buy army equipment from them instead of American. That is sure a slap to the face or the U.S. Arms producers, the cancelling of a planned military exercises on the 19. June of 2014, because of the “Anti-Gay Bill”! Since then it’s been cold from the American government and the White House. Then you’re buying expensive military equipment for your army from Mzee Putin of Russia. It’s okay that Obama had a burger with his predecessor Medvedev. Still with the Ukraine situation and Putin back in the hot-seat the turning relationship has also hit a snag. So don’t get the possibility to eat a burger in Nairobi with Obama.
So you’re now hurt by the almighty Obama. I am sure you wished yourself was directly mediating in Burundi, instead of the Defense Minister Crispus Kiyonga. You’re in Uganda dealing with your own election then being there looking good for the press. The sad thing for you is to see your former weapon brothers going against you like Jean Patrick Amama Mbabazi. Who is trying to take your candidacy in your own party the NRM! And even worse for you is that the man who has fought against you for so long Dr. Kizza Besigye has gotten crowds where-ever he steps and moves around in the country. And your methods of chasing the opposition like a headless chickens, don’t help you at all Mzee Museveni. You think it does, but up to the election, you just look foolish to all the pundits. You look like a weak man instead of the man who has been in power since the 80s. You have cut loose so many big men before going into power, like Gen. Oyite Ojok, Yusuf Lule, Tito Okello, Milton Obote and Idi Amin. Before that the country was in shambles and you have made in some kind of peace. You could have been a hero! If you had left after your two first terms then you have been left with a decent legacy. That’s would have been since you gave the country a constitution and peace nearly on all places. You struggled with the Northern Uganda. And still continue to pay back to SPLM and South Sudan because of their help in the area. This is not popular that for the U.S. that your involved there without an official mandate.
I am sure that there are more issues for why Barrack Obama isn’t in your presence right now Mzee Museveni. So you are not the poster-boy and future leaders of Africa in 80s and beginning of the 90s. Where you and Kagame your former allies was seen a breath of fresh air! Now you are not the one who the west looks for hope in the continent. And you wonder why? That is because history repeat itself and you have broken your own words time and time again.
I am sure it’s been fun to have over the President of Zambia Edgar Lungu. But that is no Barrack Obama and with the power of U.S. And he could help you with military equipment. Though they not doing business as the Russians and taking pieces of the future oil industry instead of money. So I am sure that hurt your pride Mr. President. But know that the party has still fractions that are loyal to you because you pay them. The leaders who showed you support after last election victory was President Mugabe of Zimbabwe, former Kenyan President Daniel Arap-Moi, the now former Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, President of South Sudan Salva Kiir and the Somali President Sheik Sharif Sheik.
But none of this can help you as the American President and honor your presence. You have run a country as long as I have lived. And to get turned down and spend time with newcomer from Zambia must be low-key moment for you. Since you have been so useful to the American government and fought the wars they don’t want to. I am sure you’re having a bad day. Though not saying it since your hurt and parts of you might wish you didn’t visit Russia last time. And you should have tried to mend up with Americans who has supported you through the 90s and 00s. That refinery has cost you and the pipeline for the oil has been dodgy as well. But you’re so close and just need another term to the Lake Albert becoming your black gold. Until then you just has to use the well-used methods of keeping people in order and follow the party line. Though this doesn’t help you with your relationship with the American Government unless you break your principle and rules. Which is sacred to you and that is understandable. The American president only has eight years to do his thing and then he is gone. You have sit eight years in power when it was 1994. By then you we’re support Kagame and the RPA in Rwanda. So the issues with America should go over. You have their old weapons and know how they call on you when they wars they don’t want to fight. So your not best buddies today, but maybe during next term if their getting a republican president in the White House he might support you, because he will only care about policy, not about who as long as he looks good during the whole deal. Tomorrow is another day Mr. President His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni! You will shine again. Believe that and by now your mustard seed should be a big plant and give a good yield. Though Dr. Kizza Besigye is stealing your crops, don’t worry people will vote for you, even if they don’t know they do! The Electoral Commission is your people, you’re safe and good. You just have to wait until the U.S. need you again. Then you will get granted to meet with the Nobel man himself. Maybe even in your own Statehouse in Entebbe.
There is reports you get a courtesy call in Ethiopia, but for a great man like you that feels like you been snubbed twice already by the American President. I am sure your hurt and tried to patch up the hurt with a meeting with the Zambian President to be the big shot in East Africa. While your neighbors president get him directly for visits. Uhuru Kenyatta the Kenyan President and also meeting with Hailemariam Desalegn Boshe the Prime Minister of Ethiopia in their homelands. While you have travel to Addis Ababa to see him for a short time and not an official visit like they are getting. And you have been their ally for decades and when they’re in your area they don’t show you respect you deserve. For God and for country!
Best Regards:
From the Writer of this blog
Press Release: Begining of the Deployment in Burundi of the African Union Human Rights Observers and Military Experts (22.07.2015)
Press Release: NRM will not Tolerate Independents (22.07.2015)
IMF Country Report No.15/175 on Uganda and the IMF review of the Policy Support – Quotes and Outtakes
Now I will go through how the IMF is describing the economic situation in Uganda. It will have similarities with the budget of 2015/2016. Seem like the Ministry of Finance in Uganda. The numbers and fiscal standards are exactly the same. Still I think it will good to see and give what the Western Hemisphere and the monetary organ is saying about the economy of Uganda. So that people can see the similarities and also the difference quotes from the situation.
Min Zhu the Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair in the IMF commented on Uganda in this way:
“The economic policy mix is expected to remain focused on attaining growth and inflation Objectives” (…) “The Bank of Uganda is encouraged to remain firmly focused on the maintenance of price stability” (…) “Enacting regulations to implement the new PFM Act and a charter of fiscal responsibility, and improving cash management are critical remaining reforms. Amending the Bank of Uganda Act and enacting financial institutions legislation are key steps to further enhance central bank independence and strengthen financial resilience”.
The Executive board:
“Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5¼ percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in Private Consumption” (…) “Economic policies in FY2014/15 have supported growth and stability objectives. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4½ percent of GDP, below previous projections, on account of a sharp tax revenue increase” (…) “The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5¾ percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6¼ percent over the medium-term, driven by scaled-up public investment and a rebound in private demand”.
The Executive Board Assessment:
“Directors stressed the need for continued fiscal discipline in the pre-electoral environment, and recommended strengthened communication with the markets” (…) “Directors welcomed the adoption of the Public Financial Management Act, and advised prompt enactment of its regulations”.
Staff report from the 12th June 2015:
Context:
“Security concerns following unrest in neighboring countries and terrorist attacks in the region have weighed on Uganda’s spending needs, exports, and remittances. Declining donor support in reaction to concerns about governance and human rights and reduced development partners’ aid budgets have spurred domestic borrowing requirements” (…) “During a period of moderate growth, inflation has come down significantly from its 33 percent peak in 2011; and despite a decline in international reserves and a pickup in public debt, both remain at comfortable levels” (…) “The reduction in the stock of domestic arrears was smaller than targeted reflecting a decision to backload intra-year repayments, but the annual target is expected to be met. Contracting of nonconcessional borrowing (NCB) for hydropower plants (HPPs), roads, and electrification was within the $2.2 billion limit. Most end-March ITs were met” (…) “The approval of the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act in November 2014 was a major milestone, and structural benchmarks on finalizing preparation on its regulations and the Charter of Fiscal Responsibility (CFR) were observed. The Treasury Single Account (TSA) set-up has laid the stage for improved cash management although more time will be needed to eliminate movements of cash and incorporate donor accounts in the system. The submission to parliament of amendments to the Bank of Uganda (BoU) Act was postponed” (…) “the government has started the implementation of an ambitious investment package aimed at narrowing the infrastructure gap, enhancing regional integration, and preparing for oil production”.
Recent Developments:
“real GDP growth was 4½ percent in FY2013/14, driven by services, trade, construction, and manufacturing—below the estimated potential of about 6 percent” (…) “The nominal exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated by 7 percent in the year through February 2014, and since then depreciated by 20-25 percent” (…) “The real effective exchange rate appreciated by about 4 percent in 2014, mainly reflecting the weakening of Uganda’s main trading partners’ currencies” (…) “Annual core inflation fell to 2.7 percent in December 2014 and rebounded to 4.8 percent in May 2015” (…) “GDP was revised upwards by 17¼ percent in FY2009/10, the base year. The services sector and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector increased their share in GDP, while the share of industry and construction declined” (…) “Short-term benefits of the oil price decline have been less pronounced in Uganda than in other countries in the region. In the past nine months, petrol average pump prices have declined by 10 percent in domestic currency” (…) “Oil investments might be delayed in the context of lower profitability. Moreover, many interrelated investment decisions are dependent on the oil price, including granting production licenses; signing commercial and financial arrangements; developing engineering, procurement and construction plans; and agreeing on transnational infrastructure works” (…) “The current account deficit remained large owing to structurally high trade deficits. Imports of capital goods and petroleum products are increasing, while both coffee and non-coffee exports have stagnated since mid-2013 reflecting depressed food exports to South Sudan” (…) “The monetary policy transmission asymmetry is explained by the banks’ cautious focus on loan recovery and their high operating costs, coupled with some crowding out effects as government’s domestic borrowing requirements increased at that time” (…) “The number of commercial banks has increased from 14 to 25 with a large influx of foreign banks, which currently hold 80 percent of assets” (…) “the BoU kept a tight policy stance, holding the CBR constant at 11 percent from June 2014 to April 2015, and then raising it to 12 percent, on account of global developments and the ongoing and expected exchange rate pass-through. The BoU’s intervention in the foreign exchange market has been focused on its program of announced dollar purchases for reserve build-up, but in the last few months it has been intervening on the sale side to smooth the fast-paced shilling depreciation. This intervention, along with increased infrastructure-related government imports, drove reserves down from $3.2 billion in end-December to $2.9 billion in mid-May (about 4 months of imports)”.
Economic Outlooks and Risks:
“Public investment financing, alongside weaker exports and tourism receipts, will drive the current account deficit up while preserving reserves at 4 months of imports” (…) “Low consumer prices—with average core inflation projected to remain within the PSI consultation inner band at 3½ and 6¼ percent for end FY2014/15 and FY2015/16″ (…) “Slower growth in key trading partners and further spillovers from lower global liquidity could trigger capital outflows, squeezing liquidity and generating currency mismatches for banks and corporations. In the medium term, the complex commercial and legal aspects surrounding FDI in the oil sector could delay the planned investments”.
Supporting Medium-Term Growth:
“The latter has been at the center of the authorities’ economic agenda as infrastructure investments of around $11 billion—including PPPs—are expected over the next ten years” (…) “With recoverable crude oil reserves of 1.7 billion barrels out of potential reserves of 6.5 billion, oil production would start in FY2020/21 under a model that entails a crude export pipeline and a domestic refinery” (…) “Uganda ratified the Monetary Union Protocol, and has been actively participating in work to establish EAC regional institutions and to create a fiscal surveillance process” (…) “the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) to improve enforcement and compliance, but a sustained increase in the ratio will require incorporating the large informal sector into the tax-paying portion of the economy and ensuring that large taxpayers comply with their obligations” (…) “Sustainable financial deepening will largely rely on making steady progress on financial inclusion, which will in turn depend on actions to boost the bank deposit base; enhance the intermediation role of non-bank financial institutions, including the National Social Security Fund (NSSF); and develop the money and capital markets” (…) “Staff’s debt sustainability analysis, which includes the infrastructure package as a whole, concludes that the public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP ratio in net present value (NPV) terms would peak at about 25 percent in FY2020/21. Even combined with domestic borrowing plans, total public debt would remain well below the benchmark associated with heightened vulnerabilities” (…) “The tax-to-GDP ratio in Uganda was one of the lowest in the region prior to the GDP rebasing and is definitely the lowest afterward. Over the past ten years the ratio only increased by 0.2 percentage points per year, on average” (…) “Planned improvements include URA’s efforts to assess income from rental properties and identify businesses that are accessing local services but not filing national tax returns. Use of enhanced controls and creation of a single central processing center for all customs clearances should boost customs revenue” (…) “EAC convergence criteria, Uganda has targeted a tax-to-GDP ratio of 25 percent by 2021”(…) “Social protection in Uganda is entrenched in the Constitution, Vision 2040 and the NDP II. Interventions have nonetheless been limited and fragmented—with only 0.4 percent of GDP a year devoted to direct income support and 1.2 percent of GDP to total social protection”.
Maintaining Fiscal restraint while raising Public Investment:
“The overall deficit increased by 2 percent of GDP between FY2011/12 and FY2014/15” (…) “The overall deficit is projected to increase by an additional 2½ percentage points by FY2017/18 fueled by a continued expansion in capital spending (3¾ percentage points) and a small increase in current spending (¼ percentage point), and curtailed by a further improvement in revenues of at least ½ percent of GDP each year” (…) “the supplementary budget used part of the windfall revenue and expenditure savings to cover operational shortfalls at several ministries, and Electoral Commission outlays, among other pressing needs. All in all, the overall fiscal deficit is now projected to reach 4½ percent of GDP (6¾ percent in the program) and issuances of securities in the domestic market should remain within the target” (…) “The FY2015/16 budget will increase the overall fiscal deficit to 7 percent of GDP largely financed by NCB on favorable terms” (…) “The contingency provision was reduced by 0.2 percent of GDP at the time of budget approval to facilitate one-off spending on police activities linked to the election and allowances to parliamentarians, leaving little budget flexibility and requiring prudent execution in the year ahead”.
Protecting the Inflation objective:
“Some challenges remain, including insufficient institutional arrangements to prevent government’s use of deposits in BoU accounts beyond agreed levels, and shortcomings in inflation forecasting capabilities and fiscal-monetary policy coordination” (…) “Given the high share of imported goods in the CPI, import prices play a key role in inflation behavior, with an estimated pass-through factor of 0.4–0.5” (…) “The BoU has taken steps to reduce volatility in overnight market rates by allowing all banks (previously only primary dealers) to access BoU operations”.
Securing a more effective contribution of the Financial Sector to Growth:
“The BoU does not stress test banks’ resilience to lending rate hikes because of insufficient data availability” (…) “High dollarization. 37 percent of deposits and 43 percent of loans are denominated in foreign currency” (…) “banks’ business models, with a large share of assets devoted to investments in Treasury bills, reflect cautious risk taking, as well as curtailed policy predictability given the large swings in interest rates, thus jeopardizing credit growth”.
Building Institution and improving the Business Environment:
“Core fiscal targets: These targets are based on the EAC convergence criteria, and consist of an overall deficit target of 3 percent of GDP by FY2020/21 and an annual debt ceiling of 50 percent of GDP in NPV terms”.
Staff Appraisal:
“That fiscal policy decisions will be strictly aligned to the budget is essential to influencing banks’, corporations’, and households’ behavior. Even more critical, however, is that policy implementation adheres to the budget to build a track record of fiscal discipline during pre-electoral periods and preserve the economic objectives”.
Afterthought:
Can you believe it and how the inflation numbers together with the borrowing are not totally the same, that is for the reason that the Budget Deficit has been set by the government of Uganda is on the size of the yearly budget instead of the GDP as the IMF they set it there, the number will significant better and also smaller. Still, the Yearly Review which was ‘Value for Money’ told the same, even if the number will be different next year from URA and Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) will hopefully drop similar numbers next time. Since the numbers for deficit are going up and also the loans because of missing donor money. While waiting for the money from the Oil Development. Still, wait for how the budget year 2015/2016 will go. Peace.
How the Implementation of the IMF Policy Support is going:
Letter from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) to the IMF:
Reference:
International Monetary Fund – IMF Country Report No. 15/175: STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY SUPPORT INSTRUMENT—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR UGANDA (July 2015).
Press Freedom in the East African nations with ratings of the environment in 2014 (+ reports that the Ugandan regime turned off the transmitter of the Radio Baba in Jinja yesterday)
Yesterday on the 21.07.2015 the NRM regime cut off the radio transmitter for the “Baba Radio” or as it’s really named 87.7 Basogo Baino FM in Jinja after Dr. Kizza Besigye had a great rally earlier in the day in Iganga and Jinja. Therefore it made me go through the report on ‘Press Freedom in 2014 – Harsh Laws and Violence Drive Global Decline’ that is coming from the NGO Freedom house. Today on 22.07.2015 Mr. Innocent Anyole is sacked from his job after trying to interview Dr. Kizza Besigye this sacking happen by Radio Director Hon. Moses Grace Balyeku, the NRM Chairman of Jinja and MP for Jinja West Constituency. He sure followed party line and broke the wing of the man who introduced FDC man Dr. Kizza Besigye. Well, let me introduce the Press Freedom in East Africa according to the global rankings of the Freedom House and their report on how it was in 2014.
This report has three important levels of how the media is and which place in society it has:
- Free
- Partly Free
- Not Free
The difference between them comes to how great power the countries government controls the media or let them be. How the laws and treatment of journalist and media institutions is and how the events surrounding them have been in the recent year.
I will focus on the East African Countries and those in the “area” around how the quote and place this countries in the report. Because I write about the South Sudan, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda. These are the countries that will be taken. Not the whole world but the basic places that I usually cover in my blog somehow. So it shouldn’t be surprise to anyone.
Before addressing the numbers and rankings of the nations, let me take the quotes on some of the nations from the report as well:
“Ethiopian authorities stepped up arrests of independent journalists, including the Zone 9 bloggers, leading more than 30 to flee the country during the year, according to CPJ” (…) “In Kenya contained several vaguely worded clauses curtailing press freedom, including the threat of three years in prison for journalists who fail to obtain police permission before reporting on terrorism investigations or operations, or for coverage “likely to cause public alarm, incitement to violence, or disturb public peace” (…) “Somalia’s score improved from 82 to 79 due to the increased ability of private actors to open media outlets and the greater distribution of media, especially radio, throughout the south-central part of the country” (…) “South Sudan’s score declined from 62 to 68 due to the government’s near-complete disregard for constitutional and legal protections for freedom of the press in 2014, as well as the lack of such protections in rebel-held areas; a marked increase in restrictions imposed on journalists by the security forces; and heightened censorship, self-censorship, and retaliatory attacks on journalists”.
From here I will address the rankings of the East African nations coming when it comes to press freedom and the numbers that they have gotten from the expert committees that gone through reports and the International Freedom of Expression Exchange (IFEX). The stories this numbers are telling and the situation that the media has on the ground is staggering. Therefore it’s a story that has to be told. Now will explain the criteria of the global ranking that is made of scoring process, the value of the levels and what they mean for each country and last the main groups of questions that the researchers and analyst in cooperation with IFEX. That has crunched the numbers with the questions and reports from sources from the whole world.
Criteria:
Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states:
Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive, and impart information and ideas through any media regardless of frontiers”
Scoring Process:
“The research and scoring process involves more than 90 analysts—including outside consultants and members of the core research team headquartered in New York—who prepare the draft ratings and country reports” (…) “the other members of the International Freedom of Expression Exchange (IFEX) network for providing detailed and timely analyses of press freedom violations in a variety of countries worldwide, on which we rely to make our judgments”.
Scale Point for the levels:
“A country’s final score (from 0 to 100) represents the total of the scores allotted for each question. A total score of 0 to 30 results in a press freedom status of Free; 31 to 60 a status of Partly Free; and 61 to 100 a status of Not Free”.
Questions that makes the score:
The scores are put into three categories: Legal Environment (0-30points), Political Environment (0-40points) and Economical Environment (0-30points).
Placing of the East African nations:
| Rank | Country | Score | Status |
| 164 | Burundi | 74 | Not Free |
| 172 | Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) | 79 | Not Free |
| 180 | Ethiopia | 83 | Not Free |
| 124 | Kenya | 57 | Partly Free |
| 172 | Rwanda | 79 | Not Free |
| 172 | Somalia* | 79 | Not Free |
| 152 | South Sudan | 68 | Not Free |
| 115 | Tanzania | 54 | Partly Free |
| 123 | Uganda | 56 | Partly Free |
*Somaliland got ranked 115 – Score of 54 and was set to be ‘Partly Free’
What this means:
This tells something about the environment that the press in the East African nations goes through. Of the eight nations three is ‘Partly Free’: Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. This means that certain levels of freedom is on the media, but has certain levels of strings on the press. It’s worse in the rest of the nations because they are on the level of ‘Not Free’: Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Somalia and South Sudan. And they did make Somalialand as a separate territory as a ‘Party Free’ whiles the country as a whole is set as ‘Not Free’. Therefore in that setting certain areas of Somalia federation has more freedom then the rest.
What that is shocking for me is how low scores countries of Uganda has compared to Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been strict on media and journalist. Especially to those who are abiding opposition in the country. Uganda has many outlets, still the big ones has over time been disorganized by the regime like the Daily Monitor. That has not happen with similar media in Kenya. Though the laws for media there is isn’t similar reports on shut downs of radio station and papers when the regime disagrees. Rwanda I am sure that the government is strict on the media, because the news from there is usually in the mood of the regime. Burundi if it wasn’t for protests and deflectors, there would be less news and information on the regime of Pierre Nkuruziza. DRC and Kabila haven’t put this into motions after all the issues that have been in the last decades. The regime has control and want to be sure of the information that is put out. Therefore when you hear something negative it’s from the UN bodies or MONUSCO but not the press of the DRC or journalists. Tanzania has its freedom but also strangles on the media. The party has been running the country since independence so the feelings is that their intertwined and feel like they are together, instead of actually being critical of the politicians and society. But it should be worried that the different countries and how big the difference between the top and bottom of the scale in the East African. From Tanzania who got 54 points and the worst was Ethiopia got 83 points – the close competition was Rwanda, Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo got all 79 points on the scale. 60 Points scale is the max for the ‘Partly Fee’ media nations. So that the environment is on a far level from partly and even longer way to being free. The thing that is worrying is that it’s less than 5 points from ‘Partly Free’ to ‘Not Free’ with Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. It’s just small tweaks and harassment of the media and in 2016 report will degrade this nations and how the media has a place in these countries. Though it doesn’t look to good, but hopefully I and others can be surprised. Until then let hope that the media get into a place where they can actually monitor their areas and speak their minds without fear or legal repercussions. Peace.
Reference:
Dunham, Jennifer, Nelson, Bret & Ahekyan, Elen – ‘Press Freedom in 2014 – Harsh Laws and Violence Drive Global Decline’ – April 2015 – Freedom House
On 20.07.2015 Vincent Kaggwa was released from undisclosed locations by the UPF
Vincent Kaggwa was released yesterday. Good news from the regime. Who knew they had just picked him up to an undisclosed location without trial. Picking him up because he was wearing a Amama Mbabazi t-Shirt. But we can be glad he is breathing. Still we can ask where is Sam Mugumya? Never thought the UPF or IGP Gen. Kale Kayihura would release the brother. But on the 20.07.2015 he was out and free again. Peace.




































