Somalia: “Re: Bid Rounds, new contracts (PSA) and legacy petroleum contracts – the way forward for the national interest of Somalia” (18.11.2018)

Opinion: China is starting to squeeze the Kenyan Economy!

If you were ever thinking that Beijing would loan and build without consequence. Those days should long be gone. The Chinese are planning to earn money on their investments, they don’t care about the Republic’s they are investing in, as long as they are profits on their investments. They want earn on these loans and since the rate of loans are so high. They are now starting to pick collateral for their infrastructure loans, especially the draining of loans to the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).

While acknowledging China’s leading role in the Kenyan economy as a trading partner, the President called for increased Chinese investments in the country. “China now ranks as the number one trading partner with Kenya accounting for 17.2% of Kenya’s total trade with the World,” he said. “Kenya is open and safe for business. Kenya has one of the most conducive business environments in Africa,” the President added” (President.Go.Ke – ‘President Kenyatta Asks China To Give Preferential Treatment For African Goods’ 02.11.2018).

While Kenyatta are acting as it all positive, the reality is that the state are having giant issues with their “investments” and loans there. But Kenyatta wants to make it sound positive, when it really isn’t, just the rate of the loans have grown and the consequences of the relationship with China is now starting to cost. It is the Kenyans that has to pay these loans down and with every way possible. As the Chinese has leverage over the Kenyan government. Take a look at these quotes from media recently!

Loan Rate in Kenya:

Kenya’s current public debt stands at approximately 4.884 trillion Kenyan shillings (USD$49 billion) or 56.4% of the country’s gross domestic product.. This is up from 42.8% in 2008. In other words, the country owes more than half the value of its economic output (GDP)” (…) “China is Kenya’s largest creditor, holding about 72% of the country’s bilateral debt as of March 2017. Studies show that Kenya’s Chinese debt poses a threat because the loan agreements are not transparent, projects are not well prioritised, accounting procedures are weak and it’s not clear what projects are costing” (Odongo Kodongo – ‘Kenya’s public debt is rising to dangerous levels’ 05.08.2018).

Selling State Owned Enterprises:

The Privatisation Commission has approved sale of 26 state-owned corporations to raise funds to support the budget. The commission, under the Privatisation Act, 2005, was mandated to sell 26 poorly performing state corporations to cut down government spending. Those approved for sale are National Bank of Kenya, Consolidated Bank of Kenya, Kenya Meat Commission, Development Bank of Kenya, East African Portland Cement, Kengen, Kenya Pipeline Corporation, Kenya Ports Authority, and five sugar millers — Chemilil, Sony, Nzoia, Miwani and Muhoroni. Others are Agrochemical and Food Corporation, New Kenya Co-operative Creameries, Numerical Machining Complex and Isolated Power stations, hotels (Kabarnet Hotel, Mt Elgon Lodge Ltd, Golf Hotel Ltd, Sunset Hotel Ltd and Kenya Safari Lodges and Hotels Ltd). Also targetted are Kenya Tourism Development Corporation-associated companies, which include International Hotels Kenya Ltd, Kenya Hotels Properties Ltd, Mountain Lodge Ltd and Ark Ltd” (Cynthia Ilako – ‘State to sell 26 companies to finance current budget’ 03.11.2018, The Star Kenya).

China Selling Infrastructure Loans to Investors:

The plan will see Hong Kong mortgage insurer Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC) buy a diverse basket of infrastructure loans next year and explore the idea of “securitising” or repackaging them into securities for sale to investors, allowing it extra liquidity that it can loan out to finance more infrastructure projects. “This initiative we believe will help ‘recycle’ commercial banks’ capital to be redeployed into other greenfield infrastructure projects, besides enabling wider capital markets participation in infrastructure development under the Road and Belt initiative,” said HKMC Greater China chief executive Helen Wong” (Allan Olingo – ‘China plans to sell off its African infrastructure debt to investors’ 05.11.2018).

We are seeing the growth of loans, that is up 42,8% and the debt level of the 56,4% of the GDP. Because of that, the state are now selling of their State Owned Enterprises. Most likely to Chinese holding companies and investors, who are expecting to gets points on their dollars. As well, as securing their future on the investment. They are selling the central institutions and businesses, which was state controlled, but they will now become para-stalls of the Chinese.

But selling the institutions are not enough for the Chinese. They are planning to take it further. Planning to rehash the loans as sub-prime loans for investors, meaning they are taking the risk instead of the Export-Import Bank of China, where the loans are usually collected and distributed from. Therefore, the loans are another target of more profits as they want to earn on them as well into the Capital Market. Just like the US Banks did with House Loans and mortgages in the past.

While all that is happening and with the knowledge of this, the President is still keeping it cool. Kenyatta is still not saying the brazen truth, that they are a debt-slave to China. Are in such big trouble, that the investment of the SGR are killing the economy and they have to trade-off their assets to keep up with their payments. That is what is happening and this is not really developing, but hurting the economy even more. As this institutions and businesses has been controlling their markets. Now, they will have masters from outside, which are not there to secure the market, but make a direct profit. Therefore, the citizens are not only paying their loans for the railroads, but for destroying their economy. Peace.

Somalia: Final Communique of the OIC Contact Group Meeting on Somalia, Mogadishu (27.10.2018)

Somalia: Ministry of Finance – Press Release from the Minister’s Office (24.10.2018)

Is it okay for Machakos County: That they get direct grants from the World Bank?

Today, the Governor of Machakos County appointed the County and Budget Forum. However, what was very revealing was what Dr. Alfred Mutua was implying within the documents, not who he appointed to the position. Usually that would be an important piece to look into.

However, today was the day where the Governor revealed directly that the World Bank Development secured 1bn Ksh per year for 6 years to the infrastructure building in the county. This being roads, electricity and other needed government services in the municipalities of Machakos.

Usually these sort of arrangements are done directly with the National Government or the Parliament, as to where the development is happening and where the grants are going. Which project that matter and what is sufficiently holding the standards of the stakeholders and the ones contributing the funding. Nevertheless, here the implication is that the World Bank is directly involved in all county functions from sewage to building roads. That their funding are going to do what the government is supposed to deliver. This being the natural delivery of the state and basic upkeep of the infrastructure. Instead of being tax-payers own money, they are using funds from abroad to do the needed development projects and to get the needed services in the municipalities of Machakos.

We can wonder what does the Jubilee government and Kenyatta think of this? When the Counties themselves are directly making arrangements and funding deals with the World Bank? In a republic filled to the brim of loans and lack of cash-flow, these sort of deals would be appropriate to go through the Central Government before the Local Government. However, that one has not captured the imagination. Because shouldn’t the Central Bank of Kenya or the Cabinet Secretary of Finance Henry Rotich signed it off before the County announced the loans?

That is what is bugging me, or is the counties so liberated from the Central Government now? But wouldn’t the rate of loans and grants be more uncontrolled and have less transparent system, if every Governor has the chance to grab these from Multi-National Financial Institutions and find ways to apply these locally? Even though they know directly what and where things need to be built and what is lacking. Still, they should have a rubberstamp from the CS and the National Treasury and CBK before thinking about it. Because in the mind of the Governor, he just announced it in passing together with the appointments to the different boards in his county. Peace.

Possible outcome of the revised Investment Code of 2017!

Yesterday at the Plenary in the Parliament, discussed the revised Investment code of 2017. Which in its self isn’t the most exiting thing. Nevertheless, the reality is that this is now in Parliament shows a push from the Members of Parliament and the Committee of Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED). That they are up to something. They are trying to forge something ahead. However, as the President has claimed the bureaucrats for being lazy, this shows another attempt. However, if this parts of the laws are enacted. Will ensure that it takes longer and the quality of the Foreign Investor to hold onto the new demands of the state. This will also give more power to the Uganda Investment Authority (UIA).

As the September report on the bill states. They will register all investments and all incentives inventory, as off who is doing what and licensed to do. As the Foreign Investor has to comply too a more rigid laws to be able to in the first place now.

Because the change of laws is that an exports of a minimum of 70% of the production in the given incentive, hire at least up to 60% Ugandan citizens and accept to monitored by the authorities and the statutes within the law. This being the UIA, which has the oversight.

The Incentive before launching has to verified and certified by the UIA. The same authority that has oversight and register the incentives. The Foreign Investor has to notify the UIA if they are complying with their inventory to the UIA as per law.

As to make it more hectic for anyone to invest is not allowed to directly to be investing in farming, as production of agricultural output. They cannot do that, but they can be able and allowed to own factories and businesses that helps the farmers to get better crops or bigger livestock.

The law states further the priorities for a Foreign Investor, as per law: “1. agro processlng; 2. food processing; 3. medical appliances; 4. building materials; 5. light industry; 6. automobile manufacturing and assembly; 7. household appliances; 8. furniture; 9. logistics and ware-housing; 10. information technology; or ll. commercial farming”.

This really put the parameter for what they can and cannot do. They are specific as to who allows, what sort of investment, who certifies and who monitors. Therefore, a foreign investor, by law has to comply a lot more and has to have more paperwork to prove his business-plan, prove his investment, his hires and his initial plan for getting exports of the giving products. This will clearly hamper investments and create a longer time-table for them. As the Foreign Investor cannot focus on local market, but on international market, because that is how it is by law. In addition, when you invest in something, you don’t want to loose your certification or your rights to produce or export given products.

Also, the same investor needs to incorporate the business with the Registrar General, a certified of remittance by the Bank of Uganda, the second, the certified of remittance to lodge an application to the Department of Immigration and this department have to give the Foreign Investor a permit to do stay and do business in Uganda. Therefore, before engaging with the new criteria of the UIA and MoFPED, the investor has to get the BoU in check and get the Department of Immigration. If all of these factors doesn’t slow down a process, nothing does. This is clearly a way of securing jobs for bureaucrats and lesser the burden of the foreign exchange and remittance in general.

  1. Get UIA Approval and Certification of Business
  2. Get BoU Certification of Remittance
  3. Get Department of Immigration – Permit and Application of Remittance
  4. Getting monitored by the UIA to see you comply with the codes.

If that sounds like an easier way in, it doesn’t, more offices and paperwork, before even spending money. This code will clearly hamper more foreign investors from coming, unless they are giving Presidential Handshakes to the President. I am sure he then lets them in. Peace.

Bosco was warned in 2016 about printing own currency, but in 2018: Goes ahead with it anyway!

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” Ernest Hemingway

There are someone who doesn’t listen to advise, even when it is well written and with shown data to President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni in October 2016, as there was reports and even made deals at the State House on the 7th October 2016. As the meetings was already ensuring and securing the deals between the Government and the printing company Veridos GmBh. By that time the Veridos company had delivered their commitments to print currency in Uganda. Also a comprehensive business plan that envisioned the proposed joint venture between Veridos and the government.

Now it is the 10th October 2018. Surely for many or plenty, this sort of an agreement is forgotten. Again, today at Entebbe State House, the deals was sealed.

As the Chimps Reports stated: “In the meeting that took place at State House Entebbe on Thursday afternoon, President Museveni noted that this new venture would save Uganda a lot of money that it has been spending on printing documents from abroad. “There was hemorrhage of resources that was unjustified. Money was going out to print currency notes for a long time. About US$25 million was spent each year to create Ugandan currency,” he said” (Kyatusiimire, 2018).

He is saying this without saying the cost of what sort of agreement the government has with company they are already using. As the lack of openness is shown from the state. That is why in 2016, the documents leaked and today, they just came on a government friendly web-paper.

To long:

Interestingly, Mr Museveni, who thanked the German company for its joint cooperation, criticized government officials for “taking too long” to act on such “crucial matters that affect the country.” He added that licensing bodies must not “over price working licenses for investors because it cripples investment and discourages potential investors. “These things of taking two years to deliberate on such matters must stop. Why did you spend two years discussing something that was so obvious?” he wondered” (Kyatusiimire, 2018).

That wasn’t obvious to the Governor of Bank of Uganda Prof. Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile or the Minister for the Ministry of Finance, Planning Economic Development Matia Kasaija, who both was skeptical, not only because isn’t a company who is known for producing currency, secondly the costs are likely to be more, than what they have today and last the possibility for more forgery. All of this data was scrapped, as Bosco had decided himself.

So for some weird reason, Bosco want to take a bad deal, which his experts has said is a bad deal. He complains that his experts has made it takes this, because they didn’t have faith in the project. All been done at the State House, as it was started in 2016 and rewinds again in 2018. What value has the Governor of the BoU and Finance Minister, when their words are meaningless towards Bosco?

Someone please tell me, because I got nothing. Peace.

Reference:

Sharon Kyatusiimire – ‘BREAKING: Uganda to Print its Own Money Locally’ 04.10.2018 link: https://chimpreports.com/breaking-uganda-to-print-its-own-money-locally/

Bosco warns bureaucrats of sacking: They are his scapegoats for the lack of foreign investors!

President Yoweri Kaguta Musveni does not miss a beat; he skips on every track and sings his tune. He is never to blame and his patronage or his growing bureaucracy to blame. No, it is the ones that is hired to do the work, not the legislation, he passes through the Parliament, or from the State House even; no, it is the bad-boys in the offices, which are enforcing them. The big problem are the ones following the guidelines and following the rules, which the President has put up over time. Clearly, Bosco have forgotten that memo or these laws for that matter. It is his own words, and actions that tends to end up in scriptures that people has to follow. Not like they are blindly swallowing air at the offices, they are following the protocols and the rules of the day. Which have been implemented over the 32 years the President has resided over the main post of the nation.

“President Museveni warned lazy and bribe-taking bureaucrats to resign or risk being sacked. “We still have these lazy armchair officers at the different offices who continue to disturb our people; the investors. I will chase all these saboteurs,” he said. Investors must be facilitated to bring in expert skills, Mr Museveni said, instead of being frustrated through increased work permit rates and other bureaucratic procedure” (Dan Wandera – ‘Chinese are doers not talkers, says Museveni’ 01.10.2018, link: http://mobile.monitor.co.ug/News/Chinese-Museveni-Tiles-Nakaseke-Kyambadde-bureaucrats/2466686-4785104-format-xhtml-y40t4fz/index.html).

Therefore, Mr. President. You should look into the rules, the regulations and the laws that you have enacted, as the bureaucrats are following them and abiding them. They are making it slow, because the process you have built for them. If it was slim and easy laws to process and security check the investors, then the bureaucrats would do that, however, the NRM and you Mr. President has made it this way. They are most likely also giving you a Presidential Handshake to able to spend fortunes in the nation too. You know this and the state organizations knows too.

Instead of sending warnings of firing and calling them saboteurs, maybe, you should look into the laws, the regulations and use your NRM Caucus to implement changes that opens the gates for investors and also financial transactions in the country, as rigid it is today. That is why people are tending not to remit or sending funds, as the expenses for doing so is bananas. That is why you should use your powers for something good and not just order the army to solve crisis. But before you do that, maybe, just maybe, look into the plenty of laws that is enacted and active. Which are hampering foreign investors. That is if, you really care.

At this moment, you are just using the patronage, the cronyism you have created as a scapegoat. Not to make the state better or the financial climate either. Peace.

President Lungu is making Zambia a Chinese debt-slave!

We can just wonder how and why these Executives, these Presidents are taking these high-risked loans on Infrastructure projects and other vanity institutions, without considering the implications, the cost of interests and the real time cost of the projects as a whole. As they are topping off one more loan with another. Creating a negative spiral and instead of gaining the income through proper taxations or donor aid. They are instead taking higher loans and hoping the future generations can pay it off. This while the Chinese government who borrows are awaiting return on investment and making sure the debt-slave, that they will repay their stocks and bonds, even as needed vital part of infrastructure, even mineral extractions if needed be.

There been warnings on the horizon that the aftermath of these jolly days loans would come to into the atmosphere. Now, that is a reality, as the Republic of Zambia are countering the Chinese and struggling to repay all the borrowed funds. It is really to the next level.

“Africa Confidential noted that although Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe announced that all Chinese projects below 80 per cent completion would be halted, President Edgar Lungu told Chinese nationals that all projects would go ahead as planned. “The Zambian government is supposed to be contributing 15% of its own money to the Chinese-financed projects. Meeting this commitment is testing government finances to the limit and taking precedence over social expenditure. Even though Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe pledged to halt all Chinese-backed projects that were less than 80% complete, on 11 July President Lungu publicly told Chinese officials in Lusaka that there would be ‘no disruption in the ongoing projects’ financed by China,” read the report.“Since President Edgar Lungu came to power, Zambia has signed off on at least US$8 billion in Chinese project finance. Over $5 bn. of this has not been added to the total because Zambia insists the money has not been disbursed, and more large loans are in the pipeline. Yet the finance ministry does not have the capacity, insiders say, to police, let alone stem, all the spending. In some cases, the financial penalties for halting disbursement on projects would outweigh the savings. Donor governments have offered technical assistance to bring the project debt mountain under control but have been rebuffed.”” (Lusaka Times – ‘China to take over ZESCO – Africa Confidential’ 04.09.2018).

When you read this and thinking, why did the President Lungu accept all this loans and didn’t he ensure that the state could arrange to pay it back somehow? Alternatively, did he just issue it without considering the implications, because he saw it as free money? Didn’t Lungu consider the refinancing and the costs of these loans?

Now there is reports that the Chinese will take certain infrastructure away from the Zambian government, as a way of repayment, an airport and even other things. That proves how dire the situation is, as the Chinese did the same in Sri Lanka and now does it Zambia. As it is proven, that if you don’t pay the bill-collector, something will be taken as collateral. That is evident in this case, as the rising debts and the spiral of negative sums are taking its toll. That because the President doesn’t care for the consequences and eats the defaulted debts.

Zungu is using the state to eat and the people are paying more, as they are working, but seeing the Chinese taking away their assets, because Zungu got “free” money to spend, while the results of these loans are not up to par. That is why this situation is dire. The costs are all put on the state, but the President don’t have to take any responsibility or care for the added costs. That is proven. Peace.

President Museveni letter to PM Ruhakana Rugunda – “Re: Existence of a “Sugar Board” in Kampala” (19.08.2018)