Opinion: Ruto’s Wheelbarrow to 2022?

Now in today’s Gazette there is change of a party name. This being the Party for Development and Reform (PDR) into the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). What is more striking is that the party changes its symbol from a bull to a wheelbarrow.

In October 2020 he started the “Wheelbarrow Movement” and now it is finalized in print as a Political entity. The Deputy President William Ruto have yet to resign from Jubilee Party. However, his allies has been kicked out of the Jubilee Asili offices. As there has been speculation of a new “Jubilee” party named the Jubilee Asili. Nevertheless, that never happened, but the UDA is.

The UDA seems to be new launch-pad for the DP. A man who has been parts of many parties. A man who has been part of KANU and ODM. Before launching his United Republican Party (URP). Therefore, this can be seen as the second coming of the URP. As the UDA will resemble this. Only with a twist of Wheelbarrow and “Hustler Nation”.

That DP Ruto is preparing that is obvious. He has less friends in the higher offices. Marginalized and belittled by both the President and Odinga. They are bought grinning at his misfortune. However, his steaming ahead and hoping maybe this is way out.

Still, how long will he linger as the underling and the token loyal friend, as his allies are dispatched away and his way of influence is dwindling too. He can be the speaker in funerals and in church. But how far will that take him? That is not securing his bread and butter. A man who went from being the preacher-man to be giant entrepreneur with businesses all across the nation. Owning hotels, newspapers and whatnot.

Ruto knows this and if he wants to keep his lavish lifestyle alive. He needs the political capital that it gives. He needs the naive and the hopeful to aspire to it. The gig economy and debt created by this government. That is something he cannot trade. The grand corruption and lack of results as the DP he cannot sell either. That the big-four has been washed thin by the BBI. Well, that was inevitable. That is why his first distance himself from it. To now suddenly selling it too.

DP Ruto is trying to find his path out of the equilibrium his in. Where his a no-go and no-show, but still big-bro compared to plenty. He has an office, but has little power. The man has been important and is a savvy politician. However, will that be enough?

Ruto wants to be the big-man and wants to be next big thing. But does he have it in him? Or is a he a useful tool for the dynasties to keep the ambition of one man contained. Because, this man is willing to sell anything and any story to get ahead. This man is willing to lie out of his teeth. A man who has no scruples and cannot act sincere. That man will do anything for power.

That is why UDA and Wheelbarrow is his new vehicle and organization ahead. We just have to wait and see that he honours this. That he moves ahead and prepares this. It will cost him to resign from Jubilee and start his newly created URP for 2022. The UDA and the Hustler Nation Party.

He will continue to sell false hope and pledge for a prospering future without very results to show from it. That is who DP Ruto is and that is evident by what he has achieved in office. If he was such a brilliant leader. He wouldn’t have positioned himself here and gotten his allies in a limbo. However, that is what his done. Because he got outsmarted and the dynasties was ready put him in his place.

He can try to run ahead, but he might just end up like Wiper or ANC. A token party for a leader and hoping to salvage his cut in the next term. Nevertheless, that is better than nothing. His allies might jump ship and hope for a prosperous 2022. That is cannot be promised and neither can the Hustler pimp enough hoes to keep everyone happy. Peace.

Kenya Union of Clinical Officers (KUCO): Press Statement (23.12.2020)

Somalia: Ministry of Information, Culture & Tourism – Press Release (19.12.2020)

Kenya: Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission – Press Release – Subject: Budget for Verification of Supperters’ Signatures (18.12.2020)

Msambweni By-Election: Ruto won [and Feisal Bader took the seat]

Today is a day of reckoning as the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Omar Boga was beaten in the polls by Feisal Abdallah Bader run as an independent. As the Jubilee Party, the ruling party didn’t field anyone in respect to the ODM fielding their candidate. However, this move has backfired and Deputy President William Ruto have played both President Kenyatta and Raila Odinga.

This was the battle between the Handshake and Ruto. It was a political gambit of Kenyatta to risk his party own standing and give way to ODM to carry on. While Ruto wanted another loyal ally. Some says this is a pre-referendum before the actual referendum. The whole BBI shindig who is all pushed forward by Kenyatta and Odinga. While Ruto until recently have been vocally against it. He switched sides on that, but still people say people chose this way to say “no” against the ruling regime in itself.

What we can easily see that the ODM haven’t won here and that an Independent supported by Ruto got this. For some that is shocking… but everything that has an affect. The BBI and the whole acts of the duo Kenyatta-Odinga would cause some stir. As they are pushing forward their agenda without really doing anything else. They are busy eating and selling BBI. While not governing without a functioning opposition. That’s why Kenyatta has so lazy days, as he has no real opposition against him. Even Ruto cannot be opposition in reality, as his part of the government himself.

While this was Kenyatta-Odinga Versus Ruto … it shows how power games might come ahead. That the Jubilee-KANU-ODM pact isn’t a winning strategy. They don’t have an monopoly as the public can chose other candidates then theirs.

Some might proclaim the greatness of the Wheelbarrow Movement or Hustler Nation. However, this is maybe a direct answer that the citizens doesn’t agree with the BBI referendum. Secondly, that they are not pawns of the dynasties and cartels. That’s why they picked Ruto’s man. It seems like a lucky strike in midst of it.

Even I thought this was sealed for the ODM and Jubilee didn’t field Sharlet Mariam. That was clearly more risky than the duo thought of. Thinking back in time and the humiliation of losing this one. Surely in the next race. The Jubilee will field someone, even if the ODM has someone there. As they cannot live on the supposed popularity of Odinga.

Baba clearly doesn’t have all the suction or natural drive in the voters. If he did this seat should have been solid. Nevertheless, the citizens of the constituency has spoken and given their verdict. ODM doesn’t own this and isn’t automatic. Even with the supposed stronghold of the party. Clearly, that can be wiped out too.

If it was a clear sale this one wouldn’t been like this and it is some signs of what is ahead. That Baba and ODM isn’t all Teflon. There are possibility to trick the game and win.

The BBI and the whole adventure there is clearly not a good selling point. When they are even going for the candidates of Ruto to just some other faces. That says it all. The public should never be taken for granted, but right here the ODM did. The Jubilee did and Ruto played them all.

This isn’t because of some wheelbarrows, but a sign that change is coming. We just don’t know what. Because ODM and Jubilee haven’t got the gist of it yet. Peace.

Kenya-Somali Dispute: Farmaajo’s Gamble ahead of the Elections

There been diplomatic spats between Nairobi and Mogadishu before, as the ones in power have either favoured the relations or felt used. The elites in both Republic’s have usually earned coins on the relations. As the cross country trade have been swell and border districts have moved goods. Therefore, the recent escalation is worrying.

Last month it was already getting ugly, when the Kenyan Ambassador went back to Nairobi. After the Somalian government claimed the Kenyan government was interfering in their elections. President Faramaajo have been playing into this narrative and used it ahead of the up-coming elections. Since he gotten friendly with Addis Ababa. He needs a new enemy and currently that Nairobi.

They have already International Court battle over the ownership over certain sea and possible “territory” to drill oil outside their borders. That is a case that is pending and still not settled in the courts. It has been a prolonged dispute. This has however not been the issue for the current spat.

Which is based on the election in Somalia. As the President trying to show his power and his strength ahead of that. That Somalia is cutting its ties. Is now happening because the Kenyan counterparts wanted to show their force as well. They went and had a two day talks with the President of Somaliland Muse Bihi in Nairobi. Also opened up an Consulate for Somaliland in Nairobi and a Kenyan one in Haregeisa. This is in stark contrast to the views of Mogadishu. As the semi-autonomous state and declared independence on the 18th May 1991. Which haven’t been recognized by all states and multi-national organizations. As the Federal Government in Somalia (FGS) will feel these actions made is a betrayal of their sovereign interests. However, that can also be disputed and if they even have a say in Somaliland at all…

This is why this dispute between Mogadishu and Nairobi is happening. Nairobi answered to the attacks and the actions made by Mogadishu. That is why the Kenyan went and made diplomatic efforts with Hargeisa. Just to prove a point. While the Somali elite in Mogadishu and in Nairobi knows it needs Kenyan support. Their army is within their borders. The Kenyan elite is shielding and having a Somali elite in Nairobi. That is why even some Presidential Candidates are campaigning there to get the votes from important figures there. Therefore, this is a futile enterprise.

It is not like the Kenyan will back down now. The FGS in Mogadishu have even ordered for their diplomats to return home within a few days. This means they are clearly shutting down all ordinary means of communication. A neighbour nation who has worked with and is participating in the battle against Al-Shabaab and also harbour the biggest amount of Somali refugees in the Dadaab refugee camp. Therefore, the Kenyan government can make life much worse for Farmaajo, than what he can do to the ones in Nairobi.

This can only be seen as a stunt ahead of the elections. United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) should react to all of this and also IGAD. The AMISOM mission can also loose out on this. As the Kenyan are mandated and are participating in that. So, if this further escalates. The Mogadishu based politicians are playing with fire. While amping up their “sovereign” interests, which is only losing out and weakening themselves. Not like Mogadishu have some friends to call and get things fixed. Even the US is moving their soldiers from Somalia in 2021. They don’t need more weakness in their battle against the Al-Shabaab.

Farmaajo is trying to live up to the hype and show some resilience. In a manner to buy to populist believes ahead of the polls. He needs an enemy and especially an outside one. That is why Kenya is a fitting one. What he maybe didn’t think was that they would invite and entertain Bihi in Nairobi. That must have hurt his pride and therefore, ended in the late night ceasing of ties. This is the reality of it all.

Somaliland is the pawn here. The semi-autonomous state and non-recognized state, which is trying to get vouched for. Right now the importance of Kenya is huge. Especially, that Raila Odinga is speaking of recognition of it. That would spark fury in Mogadishu. This is why the separatists are vocal about it and celebrating the recent events. While Farmaajo should feel shooked. He played high, but didn’t stack his card correctly.

Right now it’s all in the hands of Farmaajo. The “Cheese” have to act now. This will have repercussions and we can wonder how he will play this one out. His the one that gone an election coming up and he got all to loose here. Somaliland and Bihi got what he wanted. Kenya have shown their moves and can easily manoeuvrer from here. It is the leadership of Mogadishu that is loosing out. Peace.

Kenya Human Rights Commission: Wanton Impunity and Exclusion- A report based on Human Rights Violations amid Covid-19 (10.12.2020)

Link to report: file.html (khrc.or.ke)

Kenya: Kongamano La Mageuzi (KLM) – Statement on the Staet of the Nation (29.11.2020)

Kenya: Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) National Secretariat – Press Statement (30.11.2020)

Kenya: National Police Service – Director of Criminal Investigations – Press Release (24.11.2020)