A look into the leaked SGR Agreement

Transport CS Kipchumba Murkomen releases SGR agreement for public scrutiny. Some key loan terms:

~ Loan amount not exceeding $1.6Bn

~ 2.0% per annum interest

~ 0.25% management fee

~ 20-year tenure with a 7yr grace period

~ preference for the purchase of goods from China” (Kenyan Wallstreet, 06.11.2022).

The SGR Agreement decides that the Kenyan Government has 13 years to repay the loans for the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR). This is happening after the 7 year grace period. The agreement was signed off on the 14th May 2014 and 7 years after that is last year May 2021.

There been speculations about this agreement ever since the Jubilee government signed it and accepted it’s terms. It was even at one point, rumours that the Kenyan government had signed off the Mombasa Port operations to the China EXIM Bank.

What it instead says in addition to the terms of the direct financial manner. It says something very interesting…

A key parts of the SGR Agreement is this, as well as the other mentioned terms: “The Borrower undertakes to procure that the Government of Kenya or the relevant authorities of Kenya shall stipulate and issue preferential policies, regulations or approvals in relation to RDF which could be applied in priority to make the repayment of loans in relation to the Project as owning to the Lender, the Long Term Service Agreement and its due performance, the revenues generated from the Project which will be applied in priority to make the repayment of loans in relation to the Project as owing to the Lender (except for the expenditures of operation and management of the Project), the Inlander Container Depot (inland port) established in Nairobi and its mandatory customs clearance, and all other necessary policies or approvals, with an aim to ensuring the due operation of the Project and the repayment of such loans in relation to the Project as owing to the Leader” (SGR Agreement, 2014).

Here the borrower is setting the terms of usage and how the transport policies are set. This is now in print and in public. It now makes perfect sense why the authorities and the government ordered all goods or movement of cargo is directed to the SGR. That is done in accordance with the agreement actually. Because the stipulation is actually there…

Certainly, you can wonder if Beijing or the China Exim Bank is happy with the leakage of the agreement between them and the Kenyan Government. They would most likely be happy to have it under seal and hidden from the public space. Because, now the realities of this agreement is in the public domain.

The SGR is already a sort of failure and lack of creating revenue. That’s why the SGR haven’t been profitable or had the ability be viable. That’s why the Kenyan Government had to direct all cargo to go through the SGR and to the Navisha or Inland Port in Nairobi. Therefore, this agreement is just showing how bad this deal was.

The one winning here is China and they are getting lots of interests out of it. They are able to get the Kenyan government on their side. The Kenyan Government accepted a huge loan for an expensive railway. A railway that will take forever to be a feasible enterprise. That’s why these terms will be a liability and an expensive expense for the taxpayers in the years to come. While the SGR will not deliver or be able to re-coup the debt. That’s what is tragic here… Peace.

Kenya: National Integrity Alliance – The Red Card Campaign – Approval of Cabinet Nominees with Tainted Integrity is a Mockery of Chapter 6 of the Constitution (26.10.2022)

Kenya: A Pakistani Journalist assassinated by the GSU…

A senior police officer confirmed the shooting and added a comprehensive statement will be released later. “We had an incident of shooting which turned out to be a case of mistaken identity involving a journalist. We will release more information later,” the officer said” (Cyrus Ombati – ‘Pakistani journalist shot dead by police at roadblock in Kajiado’ 24.10.2022, The Star).

This whole story is tragic, a Pakistani civilian was murdered or assassinated in Kenya. That’s the story and the General Service Unit (GSU) is the one behind it. They are the ones that is mentioned. The little military wing of the National Police Service. A military wing of the Police Service. They are highly trained and capable para-military group, which is either in Recce-brigades or part of the Presidential Guard Company. Most likely not the trainees from the Embakasi training school. This was done by professionals. Especially, in the way and manner the car was shot at.

Just read this:

4. The shooting hit the car from all sides. The incident left the car with nine bullet holes on the left side of the windscreen, which is the side the deceased was sitting; two bullet holes on the rear left back screen, one bullet hole on the rear right door, four holes right side of the boot and one front right tyre that had been deflated.

5. The driver, Mr Ahmed, reported finding a gunshot wound on Mr Sharif’s head, which was likely the fatal shot. The bullet penetrated the back of his head and exited the front” (Stanley Ngotho – ‘Shooting of Pakistani Arshad Sharif: 5 things we know so far’ 24.10.2022, Daily Nation).

When you read this and the “mistaken identity” don’t make sense. They shot the vehicle from all sides, as it was coming to a roadblock. There are so many issues with this and needs further independent investigation. The DPP and DCI will most certainly “kill” this gave and ensure it gets cold. Because, the GSU and the ones ordering the bullets don’t want to take accountability. This must come from up high and that’s why the assassination happened in such a mysterious way.

It’s not just me pointing the obvious out:

The police statement on the Arshad Shariff killing has too many gaps. First, if it was a case of a stolen vehicle, the number plates of the stolen car and the one Arshad was are different. They don’t say the make. By the time of the incident, the “abducted” son had been found. The driver was his brother, Khurram Ahmed. They now say the road was blocked “with small stones” and on passing them, there was a shooting by GSU officers. Interestingly, no chase to recover the “stolen” vehicle is reported. We have a problem here. Clarification: I am being told Khurram Ahmed is not the brother as indicated in the OB report. Probably a cousin” (Eliud Kibii, 24.10.2022).

This is why this has to be properly investigated. The National Police Service first statement is already poked holes in. Secondly, I highly doubt he was shot at from all sides, because of “mistaken identity”. That sort of profile and targeted vehicle happens for a reason. The GSU doesn’t spray a vehicle with bullets and aims maliciously like they did without intent. That is just the obvious and an assassination like this happens for a reason. There is ranking officer and “high above” who ordered the hit. It must be something shady behind all of it…

This is an extra judicial killing, which isn’t new in Kenya. Mysterious murders and assassinations has happened with the assailants leaving without a trace. That’s the reality right here. The Pakistani journalist was hit, targeted and assassinated. We just don’t know why and for what reason. We don’t know the motive or the ones who issued it. Certainly, there is more to this. Since the story doesn’t add up. Peace.

Kenya: National Police Service – Press Statement (24.10.2022)

Kenya: Police Reforms Working Group – Kenya (PRWG-K) – State Culpability in Extra-Judicial Executions, Torture and Enforced Disappearences – A Call to the President to finsh the Job Started (19.10.2022)

Kenya: The National Treasury & Planning – Kenya’s Financial Position is Sound and Robust (13.10.2022)

Kenya: National Integrity Alliance – The Red Card Campaign – ODPP Must Come Clean on Withdrawal of Corruption Cases (13.10.2022)

Opinion: Odinga goes into conspiracy theories to defend his loss…

What we had was a coup d’etat. You even saw the chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission run to announce the results as some of his commissioners denounced the outcome, yet he was celebrated as a hero. They cannot allow that to happen anywhere else in Africa” (…) “The international community could not condemn Mr Chebukati’s actions because they knew what had happened. The African right-wing has always been in conspiracy with the international monopoly capital since independence and Kenyans must be prepared to further sacrifice to win this struggle” Raila Odinga (07.10.2022).

This time around the Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga is going overboard in defending his loss in the 2022 elections. We know the Azimio didn’t prepare or even collect workable evidence to sustain in the Supreme Court. The Odinga Secretariat and Azimio was running on vibes and not directly considering the professional work of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.

It is really interesting that a month has passed since the Supreme Court confirmed William Ruto’s win. Now after the fact his coming with pseudo-intellectualism and conspiracies to why he lost. Odinga should be better than this, but he needs to grasps straws, instead of reflecting on the reasons for his loss. There was internal issues within the Azimio, which has been revealed after the August election and it has never been addressed. The Azimio team could have investigated and looked into how it operated. However, it wants to vilify someone else and continue to target Chebukati.

Chebukati is the epic boogeyman now. His the villain and the grand culprit of a scheme to overturn the August election. That’s what Odinga is saying… while his not reflecting on the reasoning, the evidence or the work of Azimio in general. It is like saying Ruto and KKA has no agency of their own. Only Odinga has agency and ability to work on his own. The rest is either part of a grand conspiracy or working for colonial powers. Alas, how can you put these things together now?

Couldn’t the same arguments and reasoning be used against him, if he would have won and become the next President? If he had become Baba the 5th couldn’t the cartels and the dynasties be seen as a part of the “deep state”. So, in this regard his making a lot of smoke, but there is no initial fire.

In this manner, Odinga is actually undermining the authorities and the entities involved in the election. His disregarding the KKA and their allegiance to the Republic. They have now overlords, which they are following and directing them. If it is so, wouldn’t the same most likely have happened to him too?

Since Odinga would inherit the same structures, institutions and international obligations, which the Kenya government have to uphold. It isn’t like he would operate in a vacuum or on a lonely island without any pre-conditions what-so-ever. If that sound preposterous or outrageous, well, it is and this is why Odinga needs a pushback.

I have defended and wished Odinga victory in the past. Seeing the plights and the pleas from him in the 2013 and in 2017. However, the 2022 election was different for me. Both the way the IEBC operated and how it could defend it’s role. It’s like Odinga never moved on from the technical and mechanisms the IEBC has made over the years. That’s why Chebukati is getting such wording his way.

What I would prefer, if any of these things was true. Would be a deep dive from the Raila Odinga Presidential Secretariat or the Azimio team. Where Odinga and his associate could prove the involvement and the conspiracy itself. Until then, it’s just hearsay and alleged allegations that cannot be proven. Therefore, it’s just conspiracy theories.

Yes, there will be multi-national organization connected to the Kenyan government. That being the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and diplomatic relations with several of other nations. It is not like that would change under Odinga, who himself has been a part of the African Union as an Envoy. He should know the gist of this… and that’s why his conspiracies are of no good. Especially, when his own petition and evidence didn’t hold up in Court.

Odinga either have to deliver a comprehensive report with valid evidence or just accept the loss. Because, his team couldn’t even get a victory like they did in the Supreme Court in 2017. So, he should know the gist of it. However, this is politicking, but not the good kind. Peace.

Opinion: Wetangula has outwitted the Azimio

The Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance must feel the fall. They went into the elections and campaigns with their heads high. It was anticipated to be slow train coming and new reform under the Presidency of Raila Odinga. All of that was a house of cards and been spoilt milk. There is no return and the Azimio has been crushed.

The Kenya Kwanza Alliance has certainly been able to gain the majority in both houses in the National Assembly. This being in the House and in the Senate. While it has a hold of the Judiciary and the Presidency under William Ruto. The tides of security and dynasties seems to be over. The ones who was close to Odinga and Kenyatta has lost out. While the ones who dared to align with Ruto has sway and influence.

That is real change of guards and shows how conning Ruto is. He has ensured the safety and paid-off political parties to give him a majority. There was several of parties which changed alliance the moment he was announced the victor. This together with binding the “independent” MPs has all given him way. That got to sting for Azimio, but we Azimio would have tried to do same. Because, who don’t want a majority and a hold of the National Assembly?

Today, because of the clever wheeler-dealing ways of Ruto. Speaker Moses Wetangula could announce and declare the KKA as the majority. Meaning the Azimio is the official minority in the Parliament. They are the ones who are the opposition and the ones who are not part of the government majority. That’s really a telling sign. It marks an end of the campaigns of the 2022 election season and the beginning of the business of the House.

Wetangula’s announcement has ruffled some feathers, but he has the surety of the technicalities and the numbers to do so. That is hurting the pride of the Azimio who thought the they had come to a feast in the House. However, they are instead being sidelined and caught of guard. It is like they winged the whole enterprise and thought they could just walk in unprepared.

The Speaker has just ensured the gravitas of the parties he represents. His appointment and such will surely be remembered. Not only for this, but for he will operate as Speaker under this Ruto term.

Some states this a revenge for the February 2018 ousting him as the Minority Leader of the Senate, when the NASA coalition removed him with Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) own senator James Orengo. Therefore, Wetangula could hold grudges, but his loyalty is also to KKA, which is the coalition he ran with in the previous election.

The Speaker has returned the favour, but also been able to do so, thanks to the “free-transfers” from Azimio. That’s why the KKA has enough MPs and the numbers to do so. Even if several of the MPs either was initially independent or part of Azimio. However, the KKA has the upper-hand here and the Azimio team lacks a strategy.

The Azimio has done one thing wrong, which its repeating itself with. Azimio looks like it’s running on vibes, but the KKA is well-prepared and has a plan. That plan is executed and makes it easy for the Speaker to announce it.

Wetangula is already showing his resolute ideas and how he will handle his role. As speaker we should expect more like this. However, it is now official that Azimio has been outflanked everywhere it matters since the polls. Peace.

Kenya: Speaker Moses Wetangula announces the Allegations of coercion (06.05.2022)

My considered determination on the matter raised is as follows-

Allegations of coercion

1)THAT, the consideration of the various allegations of coercion and duress at the time of entering into coalition agreements and any appropriate remedy for the same lies outside the authority of the Speaker.

The place of Members of UDM, PAA, MCCP & MDG

2)THAT, In my considered opinion, it would be imprudent to treat the 14 Members elected to the House under the United Democratic Movement (UDM), Pamoja African Alliance (PAA), Maendeleo Chap Chap Party (MCCP) and the Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) as part of a coalition that they have expressly distanced both themselves and their parties from. I am therefore persuaded that the 14 members and their parties are part of the Kenya Kwanza Coalition. This, in my view, would be fair and in accord with previous rulings by my predecessors on related matters.

3)THAT, With the 14 Members, the membership of the Kenya Kwanza Coalition stands at 179 Members while the membership of the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party stands at 157 Members. This, by implication, indicates that the Kenya Kwanza Coalition is the Majority Party and the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party is the Minority Party in this House. Entities entitled to appoint the Leader of the Majority Party

4)THAT, the Kenya Kwanza Coalition is entitled to appoint the Leader of the Majority Party while the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party is entitled to appoint the Leader of the Minority Party; Leadership of the Majority Party

5)THAT, with regard to the Majority Party—

(a)The Member for Kikuyu Constituency, the Hon. Kimani Ichung’wah is the Leader of the Majority Party;

(b)The Member for Kilifi North, the Hon. Owen Baya is the Deputy Leader of the Majority Party;(c)The Member for South Mugirango, the Hon. Silvanus Osoro is the Majority Party Whip; and

(d)The Member for Marsabit County, the Hon. Naomi Jillo Waqo is the Deputy Majority Whip.

Leadership of the Minority Party

6)THAT, with regard to the Minority Party—

(a)The Member for Ugunja, the Hon. Opiyo Wandayi is the Leader of the Minority Party;

(b)The Member for Kathiani, the Hon. Robert Mbui is the Deputy Leader of the Minority Party;

(c)The Member for Suna East, the Hon. Junet Mohamed is the Minority Party Whip; and

(d)Nominated Member, the Hon. Sabina Chege is the Deputy Minority Whip.

The letters from the Secretary General of Jubilee Party

7)THAT, our rules of procedure have placed a certain expectation on the manner of transmission of information relating to the leadership in the House. Only Members of this House can communicate with the Speaker on House leadership matters. In this regard, the letters from the Secretary General of Jubilee Party conveying the Party’s leadership to the Speaker fall short of the expectations of the House and will therefore not be considered any further.