Opinion: Zimbabwe’s Government troubles with the West, but easy accessible with the Chinese

mugabe-amanpour550(1)

“No, I don’t care about that, the international — what they decide is entirely their own affair — their own affair. I’m concerned about Zimbabwe, and I’m concerned about the lives of the people of Zimbabwe. And don’t forget, it was my party which brought democracy into the country. I fought the British. We had to fight the British for democracy for one man, one person, one vote” – Robert Mugabe (Amanpour. 24.09.2009 interview – CNN).

There are these days that vicious attacks from President Mugabe will be normal, where the words of oppressive colonial attacks on Zimbabwe will be addressed with flowery perfection from the old-timer, the long-running President of the Southern African Nation of Zimbabwe, the country he have had in his hands since the Lancaster Agreement and the release of the Country from the British Colonial.

President Mugabe HBD Harare Herald

At one point he we’re acting more British than African, but with the Age, he has more and more hated the Europeans and Americans, as their respect for the leader have dwindled. The Respect has fallen as much as the respect for a McDonalds Burger has gone down in the West.

He we’re the man at one point, until the Aparteid of South Africa went sour and his gold-star got taken away. After that he must felt betrayed as he was the man of the continent and the man who even we’re knighted by the United Kingdom at one point and even a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. So the rich history of the man and ruler is vast. My words and reasoning will be belittling the histories and the vicious need for power the man have.

Though there vast amounts of irony from the leader, that is now clear as the sun is setting and rising again. Just as he has blasted the West, had have land-reforms exiting the White farmers and their plantations as they we’re the grand issue of the land. Surely there we’re in-balance between the ‘Africans’ and the ‘Afrikaans’; which is well-known as the British and the Dutch settlers took the best land and let the ‘locals’ become workers and renters. It was natural for anyone who lead to wish for a difference and create a better life for more citizens of Zimbabwe. Though the technic of giving ZANU-PF Elite the best land and evict landowners that have run farms for generations without compensations is just critical; though the colonial powers stole the land, there are ways of punishing the generation for the sins of the for-fathers while still trying to mend on the insufficient systems of the present day. Something that is lost tale and lost option as brutality have become the station of Mugabe, ever since he got his Army and Police trained by the North Koreans. As long as he got rid of his worst opponent in Joshua Nkomo and even raided and massacred the loyalist in the Matabeleland.

With this history and with his reign of power; all of these initial acts of violence and the control of the state; that he has exhausted the state and the economy, while blowing the donor funding from the West and later when they quit funding his oppressive regime. Saying it was colonial acts of belittling African Nation, while he himself was harassing people and detaining opposition of ‘Movement for Democratic Change’. Even at one point accepting the power-sharing agreement made by Thabo Mbeki, though partial and used by Zuma to overpower him in South Africa, the last stain on Mbeki; we’re the weak agreement that gave the Executive back to the loser Mugabe in 2008, while the winner got the VP Tsvangirai. So the tried peaceful transition to another leader was not successful and a reason why the 92 year old man is the king-pin of the Republic Zimbabwe.

Zim Car

“I think in relation to sport, we set out the position many, many times, but nothing that happens in relation to that should take anything away from our total condemnation of the way that Robert Mugabe is making the plight of the people in Zimbabwe terrible. Now whatever issues there are to do with sport, you can put those to one side for a moment, the issue is how do we make sure that we put the maximum pressure on Robert Mugabe’s regime in order that we change the situation in Zimbabwe and change it for the better politically, but also in humanitarian terms as well. And I totally agree with what Prime Minister John Howard was saying just a moment or two ago. There are no grounds, so far as we can see, for saying that there has been any significant progress at all, indeed if anything the situation has got worse, and that means that we have got to keep up maximum international pressure upon the regime” – Prime Minister Tony Blair (Jon Howard Interview at Joint Press Conference with PM Howard of Australia, 07.05.2003).

So that he blames the West and address the West for the shortcomings is natural, but the Economic instability is not all on the Western Sanctions, as that is also because the ZANU-PF, the Benzes bought under the ZANU-PF elite while the schools depleted, the civil servants delayed salaries, the missing of foreign exchange and dollars in the country are run-out. There are reasons as the nepotism, the unstructured business, the export and the agricultural inefficiencies together with draught and all the weak governance that creates deficiencies and devalued the economy. There are reasons for the economy crashed as the empty coffers while the elite was eating elephants and entertaining the Luxury Hotels in the Honor of the President Mugabe latest birthday. So there is money, but they are spent on truffles for the President, instead on citizens and services for the public. That is not the fault of the Western that he claims, together with reforms and not institutions, but instead all centralized in the hands of President.

Zim 2008

That is from the same man who has put his hate on the West, as they are sanctioning the Zanu-PF regime and Mugabe long-term reign of the Nation. The same man who have said anything possible about the Americans and British, the man who has claimed that they are the reason for all the troubles, have no quarrel this year and of recent years traded with the Chinese government and their national companies. Like there 128 development projects from 2000 – 2012 made by the Chinese in Zimbabwe. While the Zimbabwean Government have also planned to go from US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (was planned in 2015) as the official currency as the Mugabe regime is more in the pocket of the Chinese, than everybody else (Archdeacon, 2016).

This is also a way of Chinese to grade their power and take more control on the African Continent, as the Zimbabwean have such a monetary fiscal issues that anybody who will clear debt and will drop fresh coins to the regime is friend, especially when there only optional to let the Chinese work and build there; as a way of renting the country away, while the Elite eats the money. Something the country wished the IMF would let them do, but since they are Western, French and even US Dollar fueled they are not as willing as Beijing, therefore Mugabe will easily play kind Uncle Bob, while blasting the West, which is a good luck for the Zimbabwean Government. Though we know and they know, they would easily said ‘YES’ to the loans from the International Monetary Fund.

Zim Money Billion

So the hatred towards the once who was the allies and friends, like he was once so proud of English culture and being knighted, the man who once was their ally and turned into a villain, the question if he was a needed villain for the British, as he fought their colonial rule under Smith Government in Rhodesia and made the new state Zimbabwe. Which was a feat and was something that people could look up-to, when he surged the power he consoled it by all means and even ended lives to keep it; this what happen to Nkomo and to the once that he used the military on, as they we’re not loyal to him; instead to the Opposition that wasn’t him. That is why it is ZANU-PF, as they we’re two parties to take control over and even consolidated with all ways. The same he has done with the state and therefore the disarray and the economic instability, therefore the stop of using own currency and American Dollar together with the newly planned transition towards the Chinese Yuan.

There are an issue and aggression from Mugabe towards the West, he has fought them all his life, but also had a an admiration for it, as he would easily wear Western clothes and import expensive westernized products, as his wife spends the government funds there and not in Beijing, even if the government gets the funds there and development projects from there now, as the IMF and other does not offer the sanctions nation with fiscal financial subsidizes and loans. Peace.

Reference:

Archdeacon, Olivia – ‘China buys its first African colony for a meagre $40 million’ (15.01.2016) link: http://capx.co/china-buys-its-first-african-colony-for-a-meagre-40million/

Lumumba dares Mugabe on election promises (Youtube-Clip)

ZANU PF activist Acie Lumumba has recorded yet another hard-hitting video where he openly dares President Robert Mugabe to take stock of his 2013 election promises to check if any of them have been achieved. Video Credit (c) Facebook 2016″ (Alpha Media Live, 2016)

Uganda – TDA is to be TBD!

TDA Logo

Today was the day the result of the Flag-Bearer for the coalition of the oppisisiton parties in Uganda. The Presidential Candidate of the TDA is supposed to go against the big shot, His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his NRM party. The machine that also controls the Parliament and the Electoral Commission of the country!

So the candidate that is running against the machine and manufacture of the modern Uganda has to be strong. Have to viable, have a moral code and some integrity to pass on the marshes to corruptness in a political landscape where the parties and fellow politicians has been bought or brought into shambles. If you don’t follow the codes of ethics of the man with a vision you can be played out and lose your career in a hot minute. If you don’t follow his words and the main cronies of the nation then your left behind. If you try to be independent and thinking in the NRM party then you’re pushed to the side and clipped your wings. If the Mzee fears that you have ambitions to take his slot, then he will leave you behind as he has done to Hon. Gilbert Bukenya and Hon. Amama Mbabazi.

Four Men standing up for being the Joint Presidential Candidate in the TDA: 

So we are here today when many has followed this Ifs in different equations and with various formulas that ends in the result of losing out on their place in the ruling party. An makes you lost in the opposition. Certain people has gone out after finding the words of the Mzee to be going back on the principals they fought for their freedom in the Bush. This is the likes of certain FDC historical’s and the famous Flag-Bearer of the FDC Dr. Kizza Besigye. Who have been a pawn and a man who has gone for title and grand position election after election and lost after rigging and harassment!

The second man who also wants to be the Flag-Bearer in the TDA is Hon. Amama Mbabazi who has gone from being a loyalist to the Mzee and recently fallen from grace. Even tried in the preliminaries to go head to head and be the Presidential Candidate in the NRM. He sure lost that one to Mzee, not surprisingly; only one man’s vision can rule the NRM! So that the Mababazi is a runner for it was after signing the deal to be a part of the TDA only 12 days ago and independent candidate through the Go-Forward Ticket in the hierarchy of the coalition.

The third ones was Gilbert Bukenya as another former loyalist in the NRM regime that fallen from grace, but didn’t have the strength and support from others in the coalition therefore hasn’t been issue of his place. Still it proves that the fallen ones have a place and their knowledge can be used in a coalition to defeat the NRM and Mzee.

Last candidate was Norbert Mao who has had a viable position up North and been long in the politics. But still hasn’t the whole nation behind him. Especially with his bickering back and from acting as opposition candidate to speaking like he was a part of Mzee’s team. So that the parties didn’t see him as serious flag-bearer in the coalition wasn’t really a newsflash!

The other parties didn’t send their front men or woman to being Presidential Candidate. Like the CP, PPP, UPC and JEMA. That is Olara Otunnu of the UPC, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali of the PPP, Ken Lukyamuzi of the CP and Asuman Basalirwa of the JEEMA. Leaders who could easily gone forward and also filled the nomination form and justly so.

TDA Adress

So that it’s natural and would be worrying wouldn’t be issues between Amama Mbabazi of the Go-Forward Ticket and Dr. Kizza Besigye of the FDC Ticket. The issues will be on who is most fit. Then that the parties also vote differently on who they believe is most fit as the Press Statement from TDA told today. That certain parties went for the People’s President and the other went for the Go-Forward Ticket. It’s natural that people choose differently. Even if there is only one man with a vision – the Mzee! But he is not really the issue the here, only that the candidate as Flag-bearer has to beat the Mzee. Therefore the coalition can’t be fragmented and weaken since the approach as single units against the NRM ruling party hasn’t been fruitful before. Therefore this is the time to stay stronger together then weaken alone. Especially since that hasn’t worked before.

The NRM has the machine and power. That should be reason to stay united and prove the Mzee that they have an edge. Alone they will be disfranchised and played out. Some can be bought and run to show off so it seems as the country has a multi-party elections and democracy. The elections has been well-rigged and Electoral Commission has placed loyal men of the regime, with the same in courts that has verified the results in the past and given rulings in favor of the ruling party and the Mzee. While the world and nations accepting the rulings and not pressuring the regime to change ways.

With this in mind and with the knowledge both men has Dr. Kizza Besigye and Amama Mbabazi has together with the supposable strength of the opposition parties and the protocol of the TDA to prove guidance and integrity to the Presidential Election in Uganda this coming 2016 that the world has never seen before. That can they do if they have the courage and vitality take the pressure and malice from the NRM regime for a few more months. If so that person should step up and try. Not that there is great chances of succeeding as it looks today, but the opposition has to give it hard nudge in the right direction. As they want to show the citizens and public in Uganda that they want to rule for real as a coalition willing to change and rebuild. Make structures for more free and fair society not only for the cronies and nepotistic Movement Men that want to follow the words and monies from the Mzee. That is not an easy act to change when so many are eating of that plate, even if it is breadcrumbs their better than nothing. But they would be proud if they learned how to fish and catch it themselves and may be even earn enough to actual buy the bread fair and square.

dana-mcclintock-quote-those-are-tbd-to-be-determined

So that the TDA who has been for too long TBD: To Be Determined! Time to determine the place and actions as simple as the Joint Candidate for the TDA! And have a man who can rein this coalition and honor the codes and protocol, with diligence and fight through the coming election which will be full of struggles and not easy ride. If the run-up and months of preliminary meetings has proven anything, then this will be more arrests, more loss of personnel, some more people vanished, preventive arrests, teargassed meetings, sieged town where the oppositions has meetings and so on!

Please all men of TDA take a minute be wise. You all know you go up against and has tasted the bitter taste of being opposition against the NRM regime who will use all the tricks in the world to regain their rule and therefore the opposition got to show heart and prove that there are noble men in the land. Please show that and be different then Mzee who only cares for his coffers and his vision, and has forgotten the words he stood for long time ago. Which is a reason why so many people has deflected from the NRM and from Mzee. Peace.

The Proposed changes and added amendments on the Election laws that can be seen as preparation for the Election in 2016 in Uganda.

Fred Ruhindi

On the 25th September 2015 three amendments will be read for the parliament. These Amendments are the President Elections Amendment Bill of 2015, Parliamentary Elections Amendment Bill of 2015 and the Electoral Commission Amendment Bill of 2015. They are all interconnected and will be a part of the preparations to the election that is happening in 2016.  All the Amendments comes from the Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs Hon. Fredrick Ruhindi

The Main parts of the Presidential Elections (Amendment) Bill of 2015:

Parts of the bill with revise the requirement for a candidate to campaign in every district in Uganda and to stop the polling stations at 4:00PM on the polling day. Another main part of the bill is that nominations fee for the candidate will go from Shs. 8Million/= to the the new fee of Shs. 20Million/=.

The first issue with the candidate is that with the surge of districts make it difficult for a candidate to be in all the new districts before the polling day while campaigning. The second one is for fitting the economic environment that is different than in 2005.  The third issue is that the polling time is set from 5:00PM to 4:00PM to give the Electoral Commission more time to count the votes.

And a new amendment to proof the voter’s identity:

“a fourth table located at least ten meters from the ballot boxes where every voter, after deposing the ballot paper into the ballot box, shall proceed and the thumb or other finger on the voter’s right hand determined by the commission marked with or applied with inedible ink as one indicators that the voter has cast the ballot”.

The Main parts of the Parliamentary Elections (Amendment) Bill of 2015:

First part of the bill is to get four representatives of persons with disabilities to be elected by Electoral Colleges Constituted in accordance to the four traditional districts: Central, Eastern, Northern and Western regions. The second part of the bill is on the nomination fee for the candidate will go from Shs. 200k/= to new fee of Shs. 1Million/=.

The Main parts of the Electoral Commission (Amendment) Bill of 2015:

First part of new amendment is: “The commission shall, not later then two weeks before polling day, transmit to every political party and organization and independent candidate taking part in the election, an electronic text based copy of each voters’ register which the commission shall use on polling day”.

Second part is that the Commission has to employ one a District Election Administrator and an Assistant Election Administration. The District Election Administrator has the supervision, is in charge and custody of the voters’ in the district, and also seeing through the manner of the voters registers. Important character that the Administrator need is integrity, high moral and also “a person taken to have behaved in a corrupt manner in relation to his or her duties if he or she commits any act of dishonesty in connection with his or her duties, whether or not it constitutes a criminal offence”.

Third part is: “the Commission shall, before the display of the copy of the voters’ roll publish in the Gazette and in the print media, a list of all the places at which a voters’ roll is required to be displayed under this section”.

Aftermath:

The Presidential Candidate first gets more expensive to pay the nominee fee as a candidate it goes up Shs. 12Million from the 2005 to the total of Shs. 20Million and was at 2005 set to be Shs. 8Million. Everybody understands that’s a viable and big fee change and the argument is for the economic climate that has changed since 2005. If the value of the shilling has devalued that much in about ten year period that the candidate must pay over double of the fee, then the economic system has server issues.

The Second change is the time that is set from 5:00PM to 4:00PM on the polling station at the Election Day to give more time for counting. I am sure that this will be more of a statuary fix. The counting will have enormous ability to be manipulated after the votes are cast. The time set or fixed times is just an small tweak.

The third change in the Election laws are the thumb print that each voter has to get before casting the ballot. This will be sign of ink on the thumb proving that the voter has cast his or hers ballot. It’s a nice fix especially thinking about how the reports was a last election that people and military personal was bussed between voting stations to vote multiple times. With the ink on the finger it should be harder to dupe this one and the officials should easily see the print of ink on the thumb if a person tries to vote twice.

Fourth change is that a nomination fee for representatives for the disability goes up to Shs. 1Millon. There will also be four representatives one each representative from traditional districts: Central, Western, Northern and Eastern. This is in general a nice gesture to the community with applying that the Parliament gets people with special needs to the Parliament from now on.

Fifth change is that each political parties and independent should at least receive the voters register before two weeks before the polling day.  This is good thing to give them time to see the registers and check it. Might even give feedback to the Electoral Commission on shortfalls for the registration of voters in districts and municipalities that is necessary, though two weeks are little, if the registers are big who would have the capacity to oversee and scrutinize the register?

Sixth change is the additional new staff each district need. The new staff by the law is now District Election Administrator and Assistant Election Administrator who will look over the Polling and Election in the District. The person who will be hired has to have a moral compass, integrity and not act in a corrupt manner. All of the ones that are put into law are not exceptional this is what they should be as members of society and also professional people delivering and serving their nation and government so that the citizens can be sure of a valid result. A result and poll that is efficient and following procedure so that the tally can be justified and also being correct. Because if the Election Administrator doing their job and picking the right people, not letting the Electoral Commission having ability to trick the numbers or anybody else. Then the ballots and elections would be less rigged and actual have trustworthy people doing their jobs. If not, this is just a nice on paper and we still see the same issues in the Districts and clear the ballots for a free and fair election in 2016.

Seventh change is the publication in the Gazette or in print media. Where the Voters roll will be published, that is just a good thing. And proving to the public that the results getting official and can be explained. That should have already been there and is basic of official and public order, with this the Electoral Commission proves that it does it actual job in the election.

This all should be seen as interesting and see if this get voted in. If this gets official law it will have some effect on certain aspects on the coming election and the later by-elections as well. Since the signs of the public and local display will be visual with the thumb print and the District Electoral Administrator getting a vital role in procedures of the polling. Also the establishment of higher nomination fees for Presidential Candidates and also Special Disability representative which is total 4 representative one from each traditional regions. That is a great sign of all of the laws.

I don’t want to write for the third time what the laws says, but the issue is that it’s really patchwork and also quick fixes. If they will play big in the election is time to tell. And see if the next Commonwealth Report of 2016 will be as harsh as it was on Presidential Election in 2011. Peace.

Ugandan government positions and the share between the regions.

Top Jobs

Here is a short list of how the different regions have employed people in the main position in Government. This tells a story on either where the quality of those employees or where their related to. This can be either a sign of nepotism or favouritism, it could just be luck. But when you have had a stable government running since 1986, it can’t be pure luck how the picture is painted today. The clear picture is telling it all. The Western tribes are having the most significant positions and that happens to be the area where the president reside and have has big farm. In the NRM Ten-Point Program – point number three: “Consolidation of national unity and elimination of all forms of sectarianism”. We can all see that unity started in the West and Centrals has also some great positions.

Ministers:
The total amount of them is 77. The Westerner regions have 35 and that is about half of them. East have 20 so they have a great amount of them nearly one-third. Central have 15 of them. Northerners have 12. So you can see that there are more of the Western and Eastern has in total 55. So they to regions together is 2/3 of all ministers. This tells the whole tale, but also might tell how many more people lives in this regions compared to the North and Central who has 27 combined.

Presidential advisors:
It is 88 of them. Of this the Western and Central has 69 of them, but the Western has one more then Central. But there are really in charge of the advice to the executive. North and Eastern has 19. Eastern has 12 of this, so you can easily calculate that Northerners have only 7. The percentage of the Western and Central has surely a big piece of the pie.

Ugandan People’s Defense Force (UPDF):
Even like all history of Uganda, Northerners has been fitted into the army. If you read some history about the British King’s African Rifles then you’ll see that the British picked the Northerners into the army. But the biggest positions in UPDF are still to the West and none in Northerners. But the lowest mid-level positions are delegated to them.

Ugandan Police Force (UPF):
When it comes to the Police when you merger West and Central of the 15 positions they have 10. The East has 4 and Northerners has only 1. Even if it comes to the Prisons you can see that the Western has 3 positions while the Central has 2. North and East has one each. So you can see the favouritism.

Corporations, Commissions and Authorities:
The Western has 19 alone, the Central has 14, the Eastern 4 and the Northern has 1. This shows that Western and Central has 33 of the 38. Eastern has a percentage but not of any significance considering the Central has double of that one. The Northern has 1 person who the lucky one representing them. It has a meagre and nearly not existence in the further away parts of the government, and the corporations that has ownership in it.

That was my résumé on the matter. Hope it makes sense.
Peace.

WikiLeaks – The reports from 2007-2009 about the Presidental aspiration of both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga

Well, today is this blog in the name of WikiLeaks. For the simple reason the documents I found was to interesting to not be addressed and take the quotes which give an impact on how the Americans address the pre-election Kenya. This is the Election which Uhuru Kenyatta the chairman of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and William Ruto the leader of the United Republican Party (URP) their Jubilee Coalition won over Rail Odinga and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). But here are the quotes and transcripts that were interesting in hindsight of history and also seeing the view of the US into the matter.

Odinga’s Presidental Plans and how sees the opportunity to win the election:

“The Ambassador told Odinga the United States remains optimistic that there will be a credible, positive electoral process, and urged Odinga to continue speaking out against violence and exploitation of tribal politics. The Ambassador commended Odinga for having delayed a huge rally planned for Nairobi because it conflicted with a planned pro-Kibaki rally, rather than risk confrontation. (The rally was held in Nairobi,s Uhuru park October 6, with an estimated turnout of over 500,000.) The Ambassador emphasized the U.S. interest in moving quickly to coordinate post-election priorities should Odinga be elected” (…)”Odinga, who just days before the lunch suddenly emerged in polls as the front-runner, said he is anything butoverconfident. He commented that polls are not always accurate, and he said he recognizes the formidable governmental machine and the money behind Kibaki,s campaign. However, Odinga said that his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is better-positioned overall to win than is Kibaki,s newly created coalition Party of National Unity (PNU)” (…)”Odinga said that ODM is doing its own weekly polling both on issues and specific races. The ODM polls track closely with the national polls showing him significantly ahead of Kibaki. Odinga,s comments reflected something we have heard from numerous other sources: that the ODM,s &war room8 and strategy are at this point far better organized than Kibaki,s effort, which is rent by internal divisions. Odinga described these divisions in some detail, noting that there are at least three competing groups seeking to dominate the campaign: the technocrats, the so-called Kikuyu elders, and several key financial backers. As a result, the Kibaki campaign has been disjointed and without a coherent message, Odinga said”(WikiLeaks, 09.10.2007).

Odinga is working to achieve victory on the first ballot, but is simultaneously working on a strategy to deprive Kibaki of 25 percent of the vote in at least four provinces, which would force a run-off (…)”Odinga is working to achieve victory on the first ballot, but is simultaneously working on a strategy to deprive Kibaki of 25 percent of the vote in at least four provinces, which would force a run-off. (Note: The President must be elected by a plurality of total votes cast and by receiving at least 25 percent of the vote in five of the country,s eight provinces.) Odinga believes the ODM may be able to deny Kibaki 25 percent in Coast, Northeast, Western, and Nyanza provinces. Odinga believes that he will receive a plurality of all votes cast and at least 25 percent in Coast, Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley, Nairobi, and Northeast provinces. Odinga noted that his and Kibaki,s base votes are about 30 percent each, emanating from their respective tribal groups, the Luo in Nyanza province and Kikuyu in Central province” (09.10.2007).

Odinga feels (in an opinion that is widely shared) that former President Moi,s support for Kibaki in Rift Valley may prove counter-productive with Moi,s Kalenjin tribal group there, and Odinga claimed he will get 80 percent of that vote” (…)”dinga cited the danger of misuse of government resources and said local chiefs have been told by Minister of Security Michuki that they will lose their jobs and have to be elected (they are appointed now) if Odinga wins. Kibaki and his team are also warning that Odinga,s support for &majimboism8 (strong local autonomy) will create chaos and reinforce tribalism. (Note: “Majimboism” was first promoted, unsuccessfully, immediately after independence by those who wanted to deny land ownership and other rights to Kenyans deemed not indigenous to a region” (WikiLeaks, 09.10.2007).

“Odinga is part of the same traditional political class as Kibaki. His hands are not clean, though perhaps relatively cleaner than some. While he says he understands the need to reassure groups which feel threatened by his possible election, an Odinga victory would constitute a sea-change for Kenyan politics in several respects. It would be the first time a sitting President lost an election and handed over power to the opposition. It would represent a seismic shift in Kenyan tribal politics. Paradoxically, his election would in one sense be the result of the worst kind of tribal politics (playing up anti-Kikuyu resentments), but in another sense it might actually represent progress through Kenyans demonstrating their willingness to &try another tribe,8 a comment widely heard in different parts of the country. The responsibility would then be heavily on Odinga to prove his commitment to improve the welfare of all the people of Kenya. We should also reflect on our own rhetoric regarding the maturing of Kenyan democracy and our faith in the ability of the relatively well-educated Kenyan electorate to set the nation,s agenda for the next five years” (WikiLeaks, 09.10.2007).

Cabinet question:  

“Annan remains intensively engaged by phone with the two leaders, and I am coordinating closely with him. We are supporting various efforts underway to bring about another meeting between Kibaki and Odinga to iron out a cabinet deal” (…)”Kibaki and Odinga have agreed on a cabinet size of 40, with each side getting 20 positions. Odinga insists that for the sake of real power-sharing he must receive at least a few of the highest profile ministries. Kibaki has not offered any of these, and insists that what he put forward is fair”(WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).

Cabinet Question Part II:

“Uhuru Kenyatta, who currently holds Local Government and is a presidential aspirant, does not want to give up this powerful ministry. Kenyatta is important to the cohesion of Kibaki’s Party of National Unity. Martha Karua, who is also a presidential aspirant and who was Kibaki’s lead negotiator in the Annan-led talks, holds Justice and Constitutional Affairs and does not want to relinquish it. Kibaki sees Foreign Affairs as his personal domain. Odinga is under enormous pressure from William Ruto, who is key to the crucial support Odinga has in Rift Valley. Ruto feels threatened by the government’s allegations that he was involved in organizing and supporting the Rift Valley violence which followed the election dispute” (…)”Kibaki repeatedly insisted that he has offered all that he can. He said the problem is that Odinga keeps changing his conditions and demands for an agreement (moving the goal posts, though he did not use that expression). Kibaki sounded patient and exasperated at the same time. “His behavior has put me in an impossible position,” Kibaki said. “I do not want to create another crisis by being the one who makes this deal not succeed.” Kibaki went on to say that “I’ve reached a point where I cannot change, because if I do I will look useless to my people. I will lose all my credibility” (…)”Kibaki did, however, leave the door open. “I want to move this country forward,” he said, “and I know that I cannot do that without a deal with Odinga. For the sake of finalizing an agreement, I might be willing to make additional concessions on ministries,” he continued, “but there is no guarantee that Odinga would not simply take that and then put on yet more conditions” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).

Kibaki thanks USA for setting up the talks:

“Kibaki expressed great appreciation for all the efforts the U.S. has been making to help Kenyans, and asked me to talk to Odinga to get him to accept what is on offer” (…)”Kibaki said that I could also tell Odinga that he (Kibaki) is willing to make additional ministerial changes within 2 months following installation of the cabinet” (…)”Kibaki claimed that there will be more Kalenjins (people from Rift Valley) in the government once Odinga is prime minister than there has ever been before. This, Kibaki maintained, would benefit Odinga and strengthen his credibility by showing results” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).

Odinga talked with Ambasador over lunch:

“Odinga agreed with this assessment saying that, in some respects, it mirrored his own situation” (…)”Odinga said he is reluctant to meet with Kibaki again unless there is a strong prospect of reaching agreement. He proposed having two people from each side meet to work out a final agreement” (…)”I talked at length with Odinga about the advantage he will have once he becomes Prime Minister, almost regardless of the specific nature of the cabinet appointments. He agreed with this, but said that accepting a deal without the 2-3 ministries he wants would risk splitting his party and thus weakening his leverage within the government and within Parliament” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).

Annan following up the Cabinet deal:

Annan urged Kibaki and Odinga to meet again, and he urged Kibaki to yield at least a couple of the high profile ministries. I have been in frequent touch with Annan, and we are closely coordinating efforts. The evening of April 8, Annan told me it may become necessary for him to come to Kenya at some point to press Kibaki and Odinga to finalize a cabinet deal. He had planned to come for the planned April 12 swearing-in of the new cabinet and Prime Minister. Annan expressed great appreciation for the Secretary’s continued engagement, saying it is essential to SIPDIS moving Kibaki and Odinga forward” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008)

“After the unsuccessful Kibaki-Odinga meeting on April 6, both sides went public. That evening, Kibaki and Odinga made positive statements emphasizing their commitment to reach a cabinet deal and urging the Kenyan people to remain calm” (…)”The impasse over the cabinet has heightened tensions, and sporadic violence flared in several places on April 8. This did not become generalized violence, and the country is currently calm. A very positive corollary to these rumblings of unrest, however, is the mounting chorus of voices from supporters of both sides, and indeed from Kenyans everywhere, echoing our pressure and demanding that their leaders resolve this impasse immediately” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).

Leaders & Signals:

“Both President Kibaki and Raila Odinga are demonstrating a strong commitment to implement the political accord signed on February 28th” (…)”Kibaki and his team have been referring to Odinga as the “prime minister-designate,” even though the implementing legislation had not yet been passed by Parliament” (…)”Parliament on March 18th passed legislation amending the constitution to create the positions of prime minister and two deputy prime ministers (see ref B). President Kibaki and Odinga, both MPs, participated in the friendly and constructive debate on the bill, and set a very positive tone” (…)”Odinga will be sworn in as prime minister next week, and that the composition of the cabinet will be announced at that time” (…)”Formation of the coalition government is one among a number of steps needed to implement the accord. The other two main areas of implementation include formation of three commissions (on election irregularities; on election violence; and on truth, justice, and reconciliation), and moving ahead with the institutional reform agenda (constitutional, electoral, land, and related issues)” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2008).

Annan and the Nigerian Foreign Minister:

“Former Nigerian Foreign Minister Oluyemi Adeniji, who Annan asked to work with the parties following his departure, has been ably chairing the continuing talks on the reform agenda. Annan is remaining in touch with Kibaki and Odinga, and has made clear that he has not abandoned the process. To continue this process, formation of a formal “Secretariat of Eminent Persons” with AU and UN personnel, as well as outside experts, will follow the implementation of the coalition accord. The U.S. and other donors are providing financial support for this mechanism” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2009).

Odinga & Kibaki – Safricom and Aid:

“On March 14, Odinga dropped his earlier opposition and signaled his support for the March 28 launch of the Safaricom initial public offering, which will provide the GOK with $770 million in badly needed cash for the budget” (…)”Kibaki and Odinga jointly chaired a meeting with donors and international financial institutions on March 17. As reported septel, they appealed for approximately $480 million in support. At the meeting I circulated a paper laying out the humanitarian assistance that we are providing and making clear our commitment of $25 million in new assistance” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2009).

U.S (are the same as we). more involvement:

“U.S. stock in Kenya has never been higher but, concomitantly, expectations for our continued engagement on recovery efforts are also high. Kenyans appreciate that the U.S. is already their largest bilateral partner, and look to our friendship as key in ensuring the accord stays on track” (…)”I have emphasized to Kibaki and Odinga the need to work closely with civil society and the private sector to carry out the reform agenda in an inclusive manner” (…)”With timely support from USAID’s Office of Transition Initiatives, we will expand our support for Parliament” (…)”The bolstering of USAID’s democracy and governance funds is enabling us to expand support for grassroots reconciliation efforts, particularly in hard hit Rift Valley Province” (…)”We are continuing to provide humanitarian assistance on an urgent basis, including upgrades to IDP camps in preparation for the impending rainy season” (…)”Once the coalition government is in place, we plan to brief PM Odinga and relevant ministers on the U.S.-Kenyan partnership, and to lay out key priorities for action (including legislative priorities like anti-money-laundering). We will provide similar briefings to Members of Parliament” (…)”We are working with relevant government ministries and the private sector (including the American Chamber of Commerce) to encourage the return of tourism and to intensify support for U.S. investment” (…)”We are working with Peace Corps to begin the return of volunteers during April and May” (…)”Other steps to demonstrate engagement with the new coalition government may include a U.S. naval ship visit to Mombasa in early May” (…)”This strong U.S. leadership will be further bolstered as we influence donors and international financial institutions (IFIs) to provide appropriate support for Kenya” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2009).

Uhuru Kenyatta Presidental Ambition:

“Uhuru Kenyatta appears to be working towards a presidential run in 2012. While many have pointed out that replacing President Kibaki, a Kikuyu, by another Kikuyu, would be unlikely due to anti-Kikuyu sentiments prevalent across much of Kenyan society, Kenyatta may be encouraged to attempt a presidential run due to shifting political dynamics that make potential challengers seem weak” (…)”Kenyatta is taking steps that are clearly intended to bolster his political standing and mobilize support. His appointment as Finance Minister was seen by many as an implicit endorsement by Kibaki; it provides a powerful platform for Kenyatta to pursue presidential ambitions” (…)”Kenyatta also increases the support he is likely to receive in working behind the scenes to ensure that parliamentarians never approve an independent special tribunal to hold accountable those involved in post-election violence” (…)”Ex-President Moi,s son Gideon could compete for control, but at the end of the day an accommodation could be worked out.(Kenyatta was Moi,s designated successor and ran in 2002 on the KANU ticket.) Gideon Moi and other KANU stalwarts have been pressing Kenyatta to focus his energies on rebuilding KANU” (…)”Kikuyu political dynamics seem to be favoring Kenyatta” (…)”A number of sources report close contacts between Kibaki and Kenyatta, and between those two and William Ruto, a potential ally” (…)”Kenyatta and Ruto is focused on a deal whereby Ruto uses his influence among Kalenjins to facilitate the reintegration of the Kikuyu internally displaced persons in Rift Valley; in return, Ruto would get a significant share of important economic positions for his Kalenjin political allies” (…)”The reason that Kenyatta is assumed to be on the Waki Commission list of suspected perpetrators of post-election violence is his fund-raising to support Mungiki violent actions against Kalenjins during the post-election violence. Some reports indicate that Kenyatta has tried to distance himself from the Mungiki” (…)”Kenyatta may see shifting political dynamics as opening the way for a presidential run. Odinga is increasingly perceived as feckless, unable or unwilling to govern effectively and move forward the reform agenda” (…)” (WikiLeaks, 26.06.2009).

Thanks for reading and hope you got enlighten and new information.

Peace!

 

Links:

WikiLeaks – ‘KENYA ELECTIONS: MAIN OPPOSITION CANDIDATE ODINGA LOOKING PRESIDENTIAL’ (09.10.2007), Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07NAIROBI3991_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘RESOLVING KENYA’S CABINET IMBROGLIO’ (09.04.2008), Link:https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08NAIROBI960_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘CORRECTED COPY: KENYA’S POLITICAL PROCESS AND U.S. ENGAGEMENT’ (20.04.2008), Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08NAIROBI798_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UHURU KENYATTA – PRESIDENTIAL AMBITIONS AND THE’ (26.06.2009), Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09NAIROBI1296_a.html