Amama Mbabazi of the Go-Forward Ticket became the Joint Presidential Candidate in the coalition of TDA. As a lightning strike it’s has had an effect on the parties and candidates.
Instead of bring unity and strength as I and other people hoped the retaliation and movement of the parties has shambled the idea of a strong coalition against the NRM and the Mzee, head of state and long-time ruler.
First the UPC Mr. Jimmy Akena took down the UPC flag at the compound of the TDA. Olara Otunnu said the party where in the spirit and taking down the flag wouldn’t make a difference. As Akena has also denounced the Amama Mbabazi and make even the UPC camps go against each other.
Secondly the FDC has pulled their Flag-Bearer and leader Dr. Kizza Besigye after the decision to pick the other leader after a long wait for the stalemate in the coalition.
The main issue is that UFA, DP, PPP and UPC in general are following the picked candidate though that some of the parties have issues. Norbert Mao of the DP is following and supporting the candidature, the same with Gilbert Bukenya. Gilbert Bukenya while still go on his own independent candidature instead of being a part of the TDA. DP will follow Amama Mbabazi and hope to regain a bigger crowd with loyalty to the coalition.
FDC is big and biggest party except for the NRM. Mugisha Muntu and Dr. Kizza Besigye got big crowds and support in the land. Also a loyal staff and a hardworking party, that has run campaign for a long while on their own. So that Dr. Kizza Besigye has send in again his own nomination form to the Electoral Commission and standing with his party shouldn’t be seen as strange move after being snubbed by the TDA.
Though this makes a lot of the wishes and makes the opposition a bit fractioned instead of a strong unity. With the movement in the UPC which also shows to faces after the recognition and placing the bets on Amama Mbabazi. This have now showed frictions and weakness in the strength of it all. It could be for seen that Amama Mbabazi had gone out of the TDA if he wasn’t picked as the leader and Joint Candidate for coalition. So that the FDC does the same shouldn’t be seen as a wrong move. It’s right for them! But it gives the opposition less strength into the 2016 election against the Mzee. It has now two fractions with different programs and even if they both work for getting NRM regime out of power.
Amama Mbabazi deflection from NRM and into independent candidate turned TDA has really made the coalition weaker in some ways. Especially losing the FDC and also making the UPC’s own issues to the surface. That he can bring more issues up from is if the DP will struggle with Norbert Mao after taking over from Paul Ssemogerere. And that JEEMA Asuman Basalirwa hasn’t made any noise! Jaberi Bidandi Ssali of the PPP has also been silent. Ken Lukyamuzi of the CP hasn’t said a word either. Beti Kamya of UFA has not been anywhere worth mentioning more than seeing she is somewhere and maybe in recent days signed a paper.
Now that the decision has been made and FDC has pulled their power move. Amama Mbabazi has made a coup in the opposition and gotten a prize of rising as a head of the rest against Dr. Kizza Besigye and Mzee. There are now three horses running for the Head of State. The ruling party and Mzee must enjoy this fraction instead of hearing of strengthen the unity toward NRM regime!
So if Gilbert Bukenya goes a single unit as well then it will be four people race for the Presidential Candidate, with three big men in the driving seat for the election in 2016. The NRM ticket, the Go-Forward/TDA Ticket and FDC ticket! Which is three swords with different edges into each other during the campaign while supposable being able to show power against the reigning power which seems a losing battle. With two pieces going against one big-man will be battle of noise instead of the unity that they could have been.
We could see something different and a positive note into the campaigning of the presidential election in 2016.
Instead we have now the same old instead a weak unit, FDC party with its own strength and the NRM party with the Mzee who use every tool in the book to keep his position in place and let everybody else scatter. Destroy and conquer is working its magic wand without pulling the string. He has pushed Amama Mbabazi out of the NRM and used him as pawn in the opposition that he could never achieve himself. Because his actions could bring the opposition could bring them back together, but the question if the FDC see the legitimacy of Joint Presidential Candidate who is not from their party. This is a slap in the face of those who trust in the Go-Forward ticket as the main ones of the rest of the opposition who is a part of the coalition!
The only winner of this tale now is the ruling leader. Mzee has yet again a fragmented opposition and not a collected force against his reign. His Excellency can smile wherever he is and know that Amama Mbabazi and Dr. Kizza Besigye will go against him, also each other so he can steal the whole dime and leave scraps for the rest as always. Because like Joseph Stalin said: “it’s not the ones that cast the ballots, but those that count them that matter”, I know I am paraphrasing the quote. Still the meaning is there and we know the Electoral Commission and its track record in the sense of how it pleases the NRM regime.
The now TDA Joint Candidate will have a mountain to climb in the new landscape he is in. He has always been a NRM candidate and lived in the shadow of his master. Now he is alone in the wilderness, but has support of many minor parties so he can say he is not totally alone. The biggest fellow supporting his candidacy in TDA is DP and Norbert Mao. Who would not have grasp or ability to reach in the Uganda! That is something that the TDA parties have recognized. So that it would be late comer Amama Mbabazi or Dr. Kizza Besigye was natural. Gilbert Bukenya couldn’t also have the reach of the two main candidates. This has beaten the opposition into a weird shape instead of strong unity, me and other people wished. So they could have moral and ethical leader to be something else then Mzee. Instead we have three parts rally for the Head of State and beat the NRM regime.
So know the People’s President will still be the man the integrity, but not with the support of all the other parties, though parts of the UPC wanted him as chief of the TDA it seems. Jimmy Akena has already tried to split the UPC so that Olara Otunnu would lose his margin in the party; instead it shows the fractions there.
This all leads weakness of the opposition… and the crater of the FDC are now showing what is left behind. FDC created a real vacuum and should be worry for Amama Mbabazi Go-Forward ticket. As the race against Mzee can they now be seen as a soft teams instead of a having combative strength together. Mzee can smile and relax a bit. The cracks in the TDA might happen even further if Gilbert Bukenya will branch out himself on a later stage. If the UPC continues to struggle with themselves and if they following the words of the Jimmy Akena or Olara Otunnu!
Mzee! Mzee will have a field day after today. The TDA has lost a piece of it integrity and edge as the FDC deflects and the stages of the UPC and other parties place will further imbalance the opposition coalition and we can wonder if the TDA will be totally fragmented into the campaign of the 2016 Presidential elections. Peace.
Recently there been reports that yet again the government of Uganda has decided to split a certain numbers of counties into 39 new counties and in the end make the total amount of Member of Parliament (MPs) to 424 (Kisakye, 2015). This can only been seen as a calculated plan to gain more MPs by the government party to reign over this new counties. I will go through who will have to fight for new constituency and votes in newly created counties that the government wishes. This will be after the list that was on the Observer. I will take district after district. An over time I think you’ll see a pattern.
Agago County MPs:
|John Amos Okot||NRM|
|Judith Franca Akello||FDC|
Amuria County MPs:
|Francis Musa Ecweru||NRM|
Manjiya County MPs:
Bukedea County MPs:
|George Stephen Ekuma||NRM|
|Rose Akol Okullu||NRM|
Bukomansimbi County MPs:
|Deogratius (Deo) Kiyingi||DP|
Bulambuli County MPs:
|Irene Nafuna Muloni||NRM|
Dokolo County MPs:
|Felix Okot Ogong||NRM|
|Cecilla Barbera Atim Ogwal||FDC|
Gomba County MPs:
|Rosemary Muyinda Najjemba||NRM|
|Kyabangi Katusiime Nakato||NRM|
Kilak County MPs:
|Betty Bigombe Atuku||NRM|
Dodoth East – Kaabong County MPs:
Bulamogi County – Kaliro District MPs:
Kibuku County MPs:
|Moses Saleh Wilson Kamba||NRM|
|Sarah Mwebaza Wanene||NRM|
Nyabushozi County MPs:
|Beatrice Rusaniya Namala Barumba||NRM|
Kibanda County MPs:
|Sam Owor Amooti Otada||Independent|
Chua County MPs:
|Henry Okello Oryem||NRM|
|Beatrice Anywar Atim||FDC|
Kole County MPs:
|Joy Ruth Acheng||UPC|
Kumi County MPs:
|Patrick Oboi Amuriat||FDC|
|Christine Hellen Amongin Aporu||NRM|
Kiboga West County MPs:
|Ann Maria Nankabirwa||NRM|
Kyaka County MPs:
|William Ngabu Kwemara||NRM|
|Flavia Kabahenda Rwabuhoro||NRM|
Mwenge North County MPs:
Luuka County MPs:
|John B. Ngobi Bagoole||Independent|
|Evelyn Naome Mpagni N. Kaabule||NRM|
Maracha County MPs:
|Ruth Molly Ondoru Lematia||NRM|
Kashari County MPs:
Ruhinda County MPs:
Matheniko County MPs:
|Dr. John Baptist Lokii||NRM|
Aruu County MPs:
|CD Oketayot Lowila||NRM|
|Samuel Otto Odonga||FDC|
Kooki County MPs:
Mawogola County MPs:
|Sam Kahamba Kutesa||NRM|
|Anifa Kawooya Bangirana||NRM|
Soroti County MPs:
|Michael George Mukula||NRM|
Okoro County MPs:
|Stanley Oribdhogu Omwonya||NRM|
Butebo County MPs:
|Stephen Oscar Malinga||NRM|
Tororo County MPs:
Kibaale County MPs:
|Frank Kagyigyi Tumwebaze||NRM|
Aringa County MPs: (Will be three more districts)
|Achile Manoah Mile||UPC|
|Abason Huda Oleru||NRM|
Bugahya County MPs:
|James Kiiza Rwebembera||NRM|
Koboko County MPs:
|Margreth Diri Bara||NRM|
Kassanda County MPs:
|Thembo George William Nyombi||NRM|
East Moyo County MPs:
In numbers of the MPs that is on the line and getting new districts to get votes for re-elections in the 2016 elections. This here will be decisive for them. AS you can see that even some district has big birds and people who have been in the wind for a long time like Otafiire from Ruhinda County. But now let me show the numbers:
|NRM (National Resistance Movement)||45||69%|
|FDC (Forum for Democratic Change)||8||12%|
|DP (Democratic Party)||2||3%|
|UPC (Uganda People’s Congress)||3||4.6%|
|Total Sum of MPS:||65||100%|
This should be call on how the NRM wish to split the votes in certain areas so that they can eat more of the votes in next election. That they can take more of the independent votes and also from the opposition parties like FDC.
Let me show the areas that are being split not just name of main counties. Since Uganda has been split to smaller and smaller fractions and now is hard to remember where the “original” bigger counties where before they got into the humongous number of 424. So let see here:
|Part of the Country||Total Couties:|
|Buganda||VI – 6|
|Ankole||IIII – 4|
|Kigezi||0 – 0|
|Toro||II – 2|
|Bunyoro||II – 2|
|Acholi||VI – 6|
|West Nile||IIII – 4|
|Lango||II – 2|
|Karamoja||I – 1|
|Teso||III – 3|
|Sebei||0 – 0|
|Bugisha||0 – 0|
|Bukedi||II – 2|
|Busoga||V – 5|
(Aringa County will become three counties – North/South and Yumbe)
If you can quickly see it’s the central regions that have a certain level of changes like in the Ankole, Busoga, Bunyoro and Buganda. The number of counties which is changing in the central/eastern is 17 of 39. Other areas that are also getting a renovation from the government are the Acholi, West Nile and Karamoja which is the Northern parts of Uganda. The total of areas that will be changed is 13 of 39. Those total 30 of the 39. So it’s easily to see where the main changes are happening. Sometimes in the heartland of the opposition parties than in the Movement territory, so if you think otherwise. Look at the numbers and see even if this is going after 69% of the MPs are NRM. We all know that around Mbale and up north has voted for DP more than NRM in history. FDC is also gaining more grown in eastern, central and western areas. Therefore NRM fearing this, FDC candidate even won in Amuru by-election in November 2014. So that the Government is making a change in the districts around isn’t surprising. But let’s look at the other part of this changes that I haven’t touched on yet. Not the number game, but the real election game.
This strategy is amazing. The way you split counties to reassure and get more loyalty from the new LDC then before. Therefore doing this so close to the election makes the 40 new counties and 40 new MPs. Also open up new constituency and voter’s numbers that need to be secure to get the MP for a county in. Thirdly and last point is that the history of voting in an area get diminish because the new counties. This will lead to smaller counties and need less people to vote the MP in the area. That can be either a gift or a curse. That the counties are getting to be smaller populations so that their easier to manipulate since their no current voting history in this counties. So that the loyalist will get more positions during next elections and also getting new LDCs that will supposedly to give the local community more control and also support the governments work in the areas. Like getting supervision over the primary school and police I guess. But we all know that this is more securing the NRM government more control over the areas and getting the loyal supporters of the Mzee becoming MPs and also making new counties to disfranchise the opposition if possible. That this areas are also in places where the Independent MPs are coming from and just a few big shots like Kahinda Otafiire. I look forward to see the results from the Presidential General Election of 2016. Hope you do as well in the new counties and see if the MPs from the 9th Parliament will arrive from the new counties.
Just a by the way – on the information flow:
The irony of it all, I couldn’t find the MPs on the Parliaments own site or government official sites online. I found the best by the sites that are targeted by the government. Like the lists from Uganda at Heart had an awesome and amazing list. Second list was from an anti-corruption NGO from Uganda. So the one that isn’t supposed to be friendly with the government is the one that has organized it the best and that is a rare instance. Because a brother expect to easily see who represent them. Taxation with representation, the parliament page of the Ugandan government isn’t sufficient or a page that is really working. Hope that Hostalite and make them a better page indeed. And the Parliament Watch site was ten times better. Where I could double check the result of the General Election of 2011 was from the elected MPs from the Electoral Commission of Uganda. I am grateful that one supposed to be unbiased governmental institution has certain information to the public so I could verify what I found at Uganda at Heart and also the information from Parliamentary Watch. Thanks! Peace.
Kisakye, Frank – ‘Govt creates 39 new counties, number of MPs rises to 424’ (15.07.2015) Link: http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/38782-govt-creates-39-new-counties-mps-rise-to-424
It’s been movement on the ground. President Museveni has spoken and the Rwenzuru King has also said his piece. First Defence Minister Crispus Kiyonga and then before I tire you, to you sleep. Please continue to read!
Defence Minister Crispus Kiyonga put the actual number of deaths during the siege are now 92(Okello, 2014).
Here is his statement to this Thursday in Parliament:
“The characteristic of the events that unfolded show that some people in our society still hold firm beliefs in witchcraft, can easily be duped into criminality and can be very callous in causing death to their brothers and sisters. The attacks took place on Saturday 5th July between 2 PM and 4 pm in the districts of Bundibugyo, Kasese and Ntoroko. The main targets were police and army positions, wananchi in the case of Kasese, the palace of the Obundingya wa Bwamba and sSanbic bank in Bundibugyo. The attackers were mainly armed with spears, pangas sticks and some guns with the main objectives of getting guns and money. The places attacked in each of the affected districts are; In Bundibugyo the places attacked included; Kanyamirima barracks – 5 kilometers from the town of Bundibugyo, Bundibugyo town where the stanbic bank and the palace of the Omundigyawa Bwamba were key targets. Kirindi shrine,Ntandi and Katumba. In the district of Ntoroko the attacks were at the trading centre of Kibuuku and the police station in Karugutu town council. While in Kasese, the places affected are; a weighbridge opposite KCCL factory on the highway from Kasese to Bushenyi and the villages of Bigando and Ibuga. An estimated total number of 92 people are reported to have lost their lives which include, four police men, three soldiers, three wananchi and 68 attackers in Bundibugyo district, in Ntoroko, one soldier and one wananchi were killed while in Kasese district, 13 people were killed, one police man, one soldier and 11 wananchi lost their lives” (Okello, 2014).
Rwenzuru king Charles Wesley Mumbere statement:
First the Rwenzuru Prime Minister Noah Nzaghale and Minister of Tourism Erisa Mwincubere were taken by the Police at 9 AM at the Office of the Kingdom in Kasese.
The Kings statement: “that the people who attacked on Saturday should be part of his Kingdom’s enemies who did not want him recognized and that they may be looking for means of having the government abolish the institution”(…)”warned government from being biased in handling cultural issues in the Rwenzori region but rather take the task of leading or mediating the reconciliation process”(…)”the decision to arrest the Prime Minister and other officials was hash because no one in the Kingdom including himself is willing to be interviewed at peace as police continue hunting for the wrong elements”(…)”He does not recall agreeing with the president over the matter because his subjects are across the region” (Red Pepper, 2014).
Kings friend Tom Stancy comments: “the United Nations had granted the Bakonzo a state called the Yira Republic. Yira is another name for Bakonzo. On this Mumbere said that document was authored by some of the people who have for a long time opposed the Rwenzururu Kingdom” (Red Pepper, 2014).
Minority Rights Group Africa (MRGA) responds to the attacks:
“Condemns the weekend attacks in Ntoroko, Kasese and Bundibugyo districts in Rwenzori region in Western Uganda which claimed the lives of at least 72 people, including numerous civilians, two soldiers and three police officers”(Matovu, 2014).
Jolly Kemigabo MRGA Office Manager says: “We all know there are historical injustices suffered by some ethnic groups like the Basongora who lost land, but the government has failed to resolve their issues”(…)”The government, with the involvement of all stakeholders, has to push for peaceful co-existence while addressing deep-seated inequality and discrimination leading to the political and social exclusion of minority ethnic groups”(…)” Such steps should include resettlement or compensation for evicted communities, and the economic empowerment of marginalized groups” (Matovu, 2014).
President Yoweri Museveni blames security agencies:
“Fortunately, today Uganda has got a capable State that is able to deal decisively and expeditiously with such schemes although, of course, there was a failure of intelligence. How did these people weave such a scheme without being pre-empted? What were the GISOs doing?” (Kasasira, 2014). Veteran Security Chief David Pukol commented: “What had become of our intelligence agencies? May be everybody is looking at Kyankwanzi resolution, President Museveni’s fifth term and they have forgotten about Al-Shabaab? This intelligence failure has baffled us. It sends a wrong message” (Kasasira, 2014).
I will keep you more updated when I see more news or reports on the matter that fits.
Kasasira, Risdel (10.07.2014) – ‘Rwenzori attacks: Museveni blames intelligence organ’ (the Citizen.co.tz) Link: http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Rwenzori-attacks–Museveni-blames-intelligence-organ/-/1840340/2378786/-/qvgdu8/-/index.html
Matovu, Mohammed (10.07.2014) – ‘To calm ethnic tensions in Rwenzori region, government has to address specific needs of ethnic minorities’ (Minority Rights Group)
Okello, Dickens Honeywell (10.07.2014) – ‘Kiyonga: Why Rwenzori Militants Attacked Defence Installations’ (Chimpreports.com)
Red Pepper (10.07.2014) – ‘Rwenzururu King Speaks Out On Rwenzori Attacks’ (Redpepper.co.ug)