
Today, I went through the “Interim report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan submitted pursuant to resolution 2471 (2019)”, which was interesting to say the least. Especially, considering the United States is backing away. They are dispatching their ambassador and dropping out of the picture. While the Troika partners haven’t supported the US nor shown any significant interest in the sudden moves. Neither has there been any big-talks about the new US sanctions on South Sudanese officials and such. Therefore, this report sets the standard, as we are seeing the hundred days of delay to implement the revitalized peace agreement of 2018. Which has been postponed twice and surely, will need more time. Even if the supposed allies are determined to push it through without any consideration on the affects on the ground.
This is why the UN Experts Panel Report is important. As it shows what they are considering the issues at this very moment. It is compelling and telling. This is not the biggest report, neither the most shocking one either. This is a straight forward UN report with very little left to imagination.
I’m just leaving down here a few figments of the UN Report. To show to what extent that the UN experts see as the issues and the unresolved matters in South Sudan.
“The Panel assesses that Mr. Kiir is unwilling to alter the current situation of states and boundaries because changes would displease various sectors of his ethnic Dinka power base and also limit the allotment of local administration posts to government loyalists. Meanwhile, Mr. Machar is aware that entering the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity with no government concessions on this issue risks alienating significant portions of his constituency. In particular, these include supporters outside the core Nuer base of SPLM/A-IO, such as the Shilluk under the leadership of General Johnson Olony, Fertit communities and most of the forces still loyal to SPLM/A-IO in the former Eastern Equatoria, Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria States. In this case, SPLM/A-IO has already lost many supporters to one of the non-signatory armed groups, NAS, which is led by General Thomas Cirillo Swaka” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).
“On the basis of conversations with political and military representatives of the various signatories to the Agreement, including the Government, the Panel assesses that some of the outstanding issues will take months to resolve. For example, the creation of the 83,000 strong necessary unified forces is far behind schedule. By 7 October 2019, only 7,474 SSPDF personnel had been registered, compared with about 32,000 opposition fighters“ (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).
“Mr. Kiir has exhibited no intention of relinquishing key security powers retained by the National Security Service, which continues to operate unchecked. As the Panel has previously reported, the Director General of the Internal Security Bureau, Lieutenant General Akol Koor Kuc, has continued to suppress dissenting voices with no regard for legal due process (see sect. IV)” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).
“Uganda has inconsistently engaged in the South Sudan mediation process. When it does, the Panel notes that it has emboldened the hard-line positions of the incumbent Government. Furthermore, the Panel has also corroborated information that the Uganda People’s Defence Forces are inside the territory of South Sudan, further complicating the Ugandan role in pushing for the implementation of the Agreement (see sect. III)” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).
These few figments shows a dire reality, which only scratches the surface of what is ahead of the Republic. There is no short-cuts and no easy way out. Even as the stakeholders, the mediators and everyone involved got to see this. Even as the US is bailing out like a spoiled brat for not getting their way. Like they don’t know what has happen over the years, like they haven’t followed the decades of liberation battle, than after liberation the prolonged civil war. It’s like they think can fix that in year. Which is dangerous thinking, but shows how bad they are at diplomacy and negotiations at the moment.
However, the UN Report is really saying some things, which is vital. That the President Kiir haven’t held his bargain and given away powers. Tried to give way or shown the needed steps for progressing the implementation of the revitalized agreement. Machar of SPLM/A-IO has also shown reluctant movements of his forces and his team, as he is afraid of losing foothold in his strongholds of the Republic. Therefore, the half-baked approach of both parties are undermining the process of implementation.
What was more striking is that the supposed mediator of Entebbe and Uganda are still having forces within the Republic. His also backing one party, which is favourable for the neighbour. This is yet another time, the Ugandans are violations of the sovereignty and a peace agreement. While the government has no issues of silencing dissidents and not following up on requests of human rights violations nor getting steps of helping the refugees elsewhere. All of these are warning signs, but the stakeholders, the leaders themselves and the ones who wants to be statesmen has to step up and make the plate. So, that they can serve the public what it need, a meal and safety, not more war-games and looting. That will not be easy for former war-lords, but if they will be favourable remembered, this is the best time as ever to do that.
Conclusion:
“By focusing on elite-level compromise and a deadline for the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity, this approach has favoured the absence of war over building the conditions for durable, inclusive and genuine peace for the millions of exhausted civilians. Regional and international mediators should focus on facilitating a return to constructive and inclusive dialogue and to the letter of the Agreement, which is the only agreed framework for peace” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).
This conclusion says it all and what has been the point of it all. Instead of making something genuine, the leaders have bought time. They have tried to buy time to re-up, instead laying the groundwork for something sustainable. To build that will take time and effort, this will not be built in a 100 days. Even if one part of the Troika believes that, which is foolish at best.
The South Sudanese needs time, they need time to continue their pursuit and finds ways to lay down their arms. That will not be easy, it will cost, but if we are just bargaining for cease-fires over sustainable peace. We will not end anywhere else, than a new cycle of warlords and a never ending story of endless suffering in the hands of haste. A haste that we could have been avoided. Because, some gentlemen wanted to eat all the spoils. Peace.
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