In 1990 Yoweri Museveni gave the Millitary Academy in Bombo a document explaining how to fight counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni 2000, S: 132). Why I am pointing this out today. It’s because of the tragic events in Kasese and Bundibugyo(Bagala, 2014) where its reported now 90 dead. The document was in a book published in 2000 called ‘What’s Is Africa’s Problem?’ Then I will address this document and this with the state it is in today. With doing so, I will there after discuss short history of ADF, LRA, ADM and UMLA whom all interconnected. After that show how the ADF has reacted to recent events and how we come to the news of recent of the tragic deaths in Kasese and Bundibugyo. This will be long post, but hopefully this will give you some new knowledge on the matter.
Museveni had four points to fight counterrevolutionary insurgency:
First Point: Fight illiteracy and make government policy on land for the population (Museveni, 2000, S: 132). In 2014 there new reports of bad schools and its sorry state, Margret Nakitto the Mukono Muncipal Education officer explains to Red Pepper: “We as a municipal, we always carry out village meetings with communities where the locals identify their basic necessities then we handle them over to the district that in most cases has positively responded to our requests”, she continues:” Active learning is in government schools unlike private schools that hire mercenary who force pupils to cram what they do not understand”(Red Pepper, 2014). Second part of first point is to rebuild infrastructure (Museveni. 2000, S: 133). Museveni himself said for the budget in 2014/2015: “Uganda is now connected from corner to corner. You can now drive on tarmac road to all corners of Uganda. As a result of this shift in resources, Uganda has achieved connectivity across the country” (State House, 2014). So we have to see if that is true. The weakness of the national economy can lead to counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni 2000, S: 133). World Bank reports that since 1986 to 2014 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has gone from around 4.80 Billion USD to 21.48 billion USD (World Bank, 2014). There would be issues with ideology, political and general conceptual underdevelopment (Museveni, 2000, S: 133). Reasons for underdevelopment in Uganda stemmed from the colonial administration into the new independence policies of manufacturing. The government continued with the new policies of to the agricultural sector. In agricultural sector has the focus is on the traditional foods and also the non-traditional for export like coffee. Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) has liberated the economy and also opened for more unemployment. SAP was abounded in 2009 where the focus turned into a principal marcoeconomics element such as economic growth to trickledown economy, inflation control, and export of raw materials, and also to focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Kashumbashi writes: “Uganda is now defined as a failed state vulnerable to domestic and external shocks including inability and /or unwillingness to control borders against the influx of illegal immigrants that have heightened political tensions as competition for services and resources particularly land ownership intensifies. Thus, notwithstanding its huge resource endowment and strategic location, Uganda remains mired in under-development and extreme poverty because of unfavourable economic policies and political instability, civil wars and violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms”(Kashumbashi, 2014).
Second Point: The cause of the government must be for a just one (Museveni, 2000, S: 134). Where the focus was on correct building of the army and graduation of the military (Museveni, 2000, S: 134). Museveni says: “Military training is not easy. It is tough but builds your stamina, body and character”(…)”This emphasis you have done, of political education and discipline is very welcome and I want to thank you very much for that”(UGO.co.ug, 2014).
Third Point: Politicizing a Confused Population (Museveni, 2000, S: 136). That the manipulation of the population and peasantry ignorance and bandits taking advantages previous political mobilization. There could also be tribal intoxicants with the issues between the “south” and the “north” (Museveni, 2000, S: 137). With the basis of the discipline of the army would give security to the population. Good prompt management and utilization of intelligence information for the government (Museveni, 2000, S: 137-138). Col Felix Kulayigye said “the truth telling process could turn chaotic since most of the conflicts in the country were tribal” (…) ”while many people keep accusing government of wrong doing yet there are many civilians and religious leaders who protected insurgents especially during the Lord’s Resistance Army rebel conflict” (Red Pepper (2), 2014). So there must be done something wrong by the government and the plans that Museveni had in the 1990 unto 2014.
Fourth Point: Diplomatic Weapons (Museveni, 2000, S: 139).
If you handle diplomacy in the right way and manner then will you get the weapons you need, and when you need them. So that continuance of weapons needed to combat counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni, 2000, S: 139-140). If the numbers from NationMaster can be used as a guideline, approximant number of UPDF forces (exact number of forces in 2000) it was 50.000 Armed Combat Forces. Battle-related deaths were in 2007 up to 91. The price of the army per capita was 6, 13 USD. Use of GDP was 2, 9% was in 2006, in 2013 down to 1, 8 % of GDP. Personnel for the army were up 47.000 in 2005. The amount of Weapons Holdings the UPDF had in 2001 was 286.000 (NationMaster, 2014). So if this numbers are somewhere near the truth of today’s picture, Museveni sure has made a well spent with Diplomatic Weapons.
This was how Museveni himself in 1990 commented on how the Ugandan government should succeed in beating the issue of counterrevolutionary insurgency. This week we saw the second guerilla group in 20 years attacking northern parts of Uganda. The most famous one is LRA (Lord Resistance Army). LRA now is on the run between Central African Republic (C.A.R), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan; they are on the run from UPDF who is going after them there. This has led to clashes with ‘Seleka’ in C.A.R which wasn’t intended in general, but rumors are out that ‘Seleka’ is supporting LRA (Ronan, 2014).
Short history of ADF:
It started first of in Uganda as Ugandan Muslim Liberation Army (UMLA) this after they accused NRA (NRM) killing Muslims in 1979 at Nyamitaga in Mbabara and also the killings of Muslims at Butambala near Mpigi (Prunier, 2009, S: 84). UMLA was founded in January in 1995 (Prunier, 2009, S: 84). Monarchist of the Baganda Kingdom of Uganda wasn’t happy with the restoration of the Kabaka Mutesa II that happened in 1993 and became only a cultural institution with no power. Allied Democratic Movement (ADM) was founded in London later in January 1995 (Prunier, 2009, S: 85). The UMLA had it firsts attacks were in February at Buseruka, near Lake Albert in Bunyoro. This was on 20-28 February 1995 and went bad for the UMLA. So they fled the area and settled down in Bunia in DRC. Through the met of Tabliq a Khartoum supported group who worked together with Sudanese Army Security Service who controlled at the time Bunia Airbase and Khartoum was hostile to Uganda and NRM (Prunier, 2009, S: 86). This sponsored relationship from Khartoum led to the alliance of the ADM and the UMLA, whom became in the DRC the ADF (Prunier, 2009, S: 87).
ADF made a mark 13. November 1996. Museveni called Mobutu and told he would enter DRC to attack the ADF guerillas at their bases in Kasindi, DRC and Mobutu was surprised. Then leader of ADF Ssentamatu Kayiira said “to reintroduce multi party politics in Uganda, stop Museveni’s nepotism giving all the juicy jobs to Westerns (meaning people from Ankoli and Kigenzi) and re-establish cordial relations with Uganda’s neighbor” (Prunier, 2009, S: 120.121). This made Museveni enters the conflict at the time in DRC and fight ADF in Bunia and Kasindi (Prunier, 2009, S: 121). By mid-October in 1998 Museveni went into Sudan to fight to both strike back at LRA and also ADF since they got air support from Juba, the numbers was up to 50.000 IDPs in January 1998 and by July 70.000. Amama Mbabazi was commenting on this at the time: “Khartoum’s plan is to destabilize the region to prepare the ground for the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and Arabism”(Prunier, 2009, S: 196).
MONUC (UN Peacekeeping Force in DRC) hunted down with FARDC the ADF in late December 2005 where they ended up killing 86 ADF combatants (Prunier, 2009, S: 208).
Later the ADF still exists, but not only as guerrilla force on the footholds of Ruwenzori to a rogue mining company. They are not seeing in Kampala as a threat anymore, but something of the past (Prunier, 2009, S: 321,322).
Recently suggest that ADF-NALU has 800 to 1.400 combatants in the DRC-Uganda. The funding of the organization is off Illegal logging and gold-mining, this money is being handled with a network of cars and motorcycles, this then being transferred to and from London, Kenya and Uganda. There has been attempts crush the guerrilla army in 2005 and 2010 (IRIN, 2014).
Lt. Col Paddy Ankunda of the UPDF and he comments: “The threat is real. ADF is recruiting, training and opening new camps in eastern DRC. We are alert and very prepared to deal with any attack on our side of the border” (…)”We are sharing intelligence information with the DRC government [and] FARDC [DRC’s national army] about their activities. We hope FARDC will be able to deal with the group” (…)”There is no doubt; ADF has a linkage with Al-Shabab. They collaborate. They have trained ADF on the use of improvised explosive devices” (…)”What is worrying us is that the ADF has been carrying out a series of abductions, recruitment and attacks in DRC without much resistance from FARDC”(IRIN 2, 2013). This is after what he said in 2013 and still nothing said about in international press or any action from them.
Stephen Oola commented also: “The allegations that ADF is regrouping are not new and should not come as a surprise. What should worry us as a country is the apparent collective amnesia of treating our own exported armed insurgencies as other people’s problems” (…)”The LRA [Lord’s Resistance Army] and ADF are Uganda’s problems and will remain so, no matter where they are located at a particular time, until we seek a comprehensive solution to conflicts in this country”(IRIN 2, 2013).
Museveni commented himself to African Report this in August 2013: “I have told President Kabila and the UN that they should deal with these killers” (…)”We can’t have neighbours who are murderers. ADF killers are in Congo, if they dare to if they dare to attack Uganda they will suffer the consequences” (…)”I urge Ugandans to look after our people fleeing the conflict in Congo. These are our people, the boundaries are foreign” (…)”Slowly by slowly we shall bring Africa back together. An elephant always carries the weight of its tasks however heavy” (Olukya, 2013).
Museveni congratulates Kabila on 2. December 2013 said “The DRC army operations overrun the headquarters of the ADF in the Eastern Region. I want to thank President Kabila and congratulate him upon this successful operation of flashing out the ADF” (NewVision.co.ug, 2014).
What Museveni failed with his counterrevolutionary insurgency plans from 1990?
My suggestion would be that he didn’t follow the four points of the 1990 military document given to Bombo Military Academy in Uganda. Museveni and UPDF can’t fight the right wars since they can’t have done that, then this kind of armies wouldn’t exist still after 20 years and making havoc in Kasese and Bundibugyo. The cause for safety of their own citizens should be JUST one, but does this matter at this point for the UPDF? They are used in Somalia, South Sudan, DRC and C.A.R, are there still forces to use in the country? If they are, where are they stationed at and how hungry are they? Since you can’t let the ADF just walk into your territory and start shooting without any warning, then killing both army personnel and also civilians.Politicizing the population is captured in the second point, how can a government and police let a guerrilla just walk over the borders and make hazardous event and tragic outcome. That UPDF isn’t stronger in the area must be a wake-up call for the brigadiers and generals of the Ugandan Army. This must be an answer to the ADF battles in 2013 and now their revenging the UPDF and DRC army. Fourth point is Diplomatic Weapons, I am sure that Museveni and UPDF getting the weapons he need. He has recently been in Russia and become more connected to them, also his ties to USA in the fight against LRA and the Al.Shabab in Somalia. UPDF is sure getting the modern weapons of this time from them and sure it’s part of the aid.
The sad new reports from several sources:
Paddy Akunda: “There was an attack by tribal gunmen on our barracks in Bundibugyo [Western Uganda] and we repulsed them, killing so far 41 of the attackers. The operation is ongoing”(AllAfrica.com, 2014). Ms Namaye says: “he attackers were coordinated by local leader and politicians, who are yet to be interrogated” (…)”Investigations are pointing to area politicians and a witch doctor who hails from Democratic Republic of Congo who helped them attack out stations” (Bagala, 2014). Lt. Ninsiima Rwemijuma has commented: “More than 80 suspected militants are now in custody”. The military is saying ‘it’s not a full blown insurgency’. They suspects it to be: Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu. Who is a part of the Bakonzo tribe and have a long tense relationship with neighboring tribe Bamba. Rwemijuma continues: “It is hard to confirm that this is a rebel group or not” (…)”This is a subject matter that needs investigation” (Muhumuza, 2014).
More interesting reports are armed men went into the barracks of Kasese and took ammunition from the place. Also fears of civil war sparking off in Kampala. Even UPDF Officer has reported that tanks has vanished and soldiers. Muzhoozi is reported also to hold a dozen meetings over the political unrest (Welinformers.com, 2014).
I mean it today:
AllAfrica.com: ‘Uganda: Dozens Killed in Clash With Ugandan Police’ (06.07.2014), Links:http://allafrica.com/stories/201407070244.html?aa_source=mf-hdlns
Bagala, Andrew (Monitor.co.ug), – Death toll in Kasese, Bundibugyo attacks rises to 90, (Updated: 07.07.2014). Links:http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Death-toll-in-Kasese–Bundibugyo-attacks–rises-to-90/-/688334/2374884/-/cewe5b/-/index.html
IRIN – ReliefWeb: ‘Briefing: ADF-NALU militia in DRC’ (27.01.2014), Links:http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/briefing-adf-nalu-militia-drc
IRIN 2 – ‘DRC-based Ugandan rebel group “recruiting, training”’ (11.07.2013), Links:http://www.irinnews.org/report/98400/drc-based-ugandan-rebel-group-recruiting-training
Kashambuzi, Eric (the London Evening Post) – Why Uganda has failed to develop and eradicate poverty (Updated: 05.07.2014), Links: http://www.thelondoneveningpost.com/features/why-uganda-has-failed-to-develop-and-eradicate-poverty/2/
Muhumuza, Rodney (AP) – ‘Fears of rebellion as Uganda’s army battles gunmen’, Stripes.com, (07.07.2014), Links: http://www.stripes.com/news/africa/fears-of-rebellion-as-uganda-s-army-battles-gunmen-1.292272
Museveni, Yoweri K. – What Is Africa’s Problem? (2000), University Of Minnesota Press, USA.
NewVision Reporter – ‘Museveni hails Kabila for flashing out ADF rebels’, (10.02.2014), Links:http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/652370-museveni-hails-kabila-for-flashing-out-adf-rebels.html
NationMaster.com: Uganda Military Stats (Read 07.07.2014), NationMaster (Updated I don’t know), Links:http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/profiles/Uganda/Military
Olukya, Godfrey – ‘Uganda: Museveni warns DRC rebels’, African Report, (06.08.2013), Links: http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/uganda-museveni-warns-drc-rebels.html
Red Pepper: ‘State Of The Gov’t Schools In Uganda’ (Updated: 02.07.2014), Links: http://www.redpepper.co.ug/state-of-the-govt-schools-in-uganda/
Red Pepper (2): ‘Kulayigye: Uganda Not Ready for Truth Telling’ (29.05.2014), Links:http://www.redpepper.co.ug/kulaigye-uganda-not-ready-for-truth-telling/
Ronan, Paul: Behind the headlines: ‘UPDF clashes with Seleka in eastern CAR’ (02.07.2014), Links: http://www.theresolve.org/2014/07/behind-the-headlines-updf-clashes-with-seleka-in-the-car/
Prunier, Gerard: Africa’s World War (2009), Oxford University Press. UK
The State House of Uganda: 2014/2015 budget poised to boost infrastructure sector (02.06.2014) Links: http://www.statehouse.go.ug/media/news/2014/06/12/20142015-budget-poised-boost-infrastructure-sector
UGO.Co.Ug: UPDF Officers Demonstrate Skills Acquired In Intense Training (02.07.2014), Links: http://news.ugo.co.ug/updf-officers-demonstrate-skills-acquired-intense-training/
WelInformers.com: ‘Senior UPDF officers vanish with military hardware, Museveni, Muhoozi hold meetings’ (07.07.2014, Links:http://www.weinformers.net/2014/07/07/senior-updf-officers-vanish-with-military-hardware-museveni-muhoozi-hold-meetings/
World Bank: Uganda GDP – (Updated 2014), Links: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/uganda/gdp