Opinion: Sorry POA, but your not cutting it…

It is official, the Presidential Flag-Bearer of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is the Party President, Patrick Amuriat Oboi (POA). I have nothing against the man. He can stand on his own and on his own merit. However, the harsh reality needs to be told.

POA cannot galvanize or energize the masses. The man isn’t that great. The FDC has the wrong sort of Presidential Flag-Bearer now. Yes, the FDC has now another leader and candidate than Besigye. That shows the party is mature and isn’t a sole candidate enterprise. Which is all good in itself. However, that is not enough at this point.

POA has less of a presence than what Amama Mbabazi had before the 2016 elections. This man is as inspiring as a serious Elton Joseph Mabirizi. One that should feel hurt and feel betrayed is Mugisha Muntu. Who had to leave the party and create his own to do this. If Mugisha just had waited a few months. He could have run as a Presidential Contender in a party he has invested so much time in. Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) has actually a better Flag-Bearer, than the FDC. Who knew that would be the deal in 2020?

The FDC sending and nominating Amuriat Oboi is a sign of weakness. A sign that the FDC is now internally locked and not looking out for a broader candidate for the highest office. Yes, the FDC is free to pick whoever they deem fit. To go after Dr. Kizza Besigye will trying for anyone. POA has to achieve the likeability and popularity of the stratosphere. That is something he will never reach. Yes, he was able beat Muntu and Birigwa, but be up against the other Flag-Bearers. I doubt he has the character to do so.

Seemingly, POA doesn’t have the flair, the flex or the public persona, which is needed to get there. Unless, he wants to be the educated guess like Professor Venansius Baryamureeba, but with defiance in his veins.

POA really have to prove his worth. The man has to walk to the mountains and get Ten Commandments before returning back to the public. The FDC needs to reassure, needs to back him, but also build him as public figure. Because, the man has the ability to bottle it or make things worse. POA can be self-inflicting pain, instead of boosting confidence.

This is why this is a loosing game. POA now has to battle Muntu again. To prove his worth not only against him, but Museveni and Bobi Wine. The FDC Flag-Bearer now has to rise to the occasion and prove his worth. I doubt he has it in him. He has to create a trustworthy character and be sell-able across the vast public. In a manner, which this man never been sold. People have to buy his ideas and believe that he can carry it.

POA doesn’t ooze greatness. That is not his fault, but his handling of things post-Muntu haven’t been great. Neither, has the party made him look to great either. That is because of the deflections and the struggles to find a space post-Besigye too. This seems to make it harder for POA.

POA needs to navigate the folks following Besigye and the ones following the party. The FDC needs to make more than Facebook posts and posters. They need to re-think his methods and his mannerisms. POA might mean well and has honest intentions behind his drive as a Party President. However, it isn’t always coming across.

He needs a team behind him. The FDC needs to rejuvenate Amuriat Oboi candidacy, unless they want him to fall flat. I don’t see him as big-man or viable Flag-Bearer outside the internal party of the FDC. That is just what I see, but maybe others has another perspective.

Wish him well, but his road ahead is not easy. POA will struggle and feel the struggle. Just like has done as Party President. The FDC knows this and has to support him now. Also, make him viable and accessible outside the FDC. That is the first component the party has to fix and then make him ooze confidence with a plan for a peaceful transition of power. Peace.

Opinion: FDC has no ammunition [now that Besigye is on the sideline]

We can easily see that the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is challenged by National Unity Platform (NUP). That is why the FDC is attacking the means and the ways the NUP operates. The FDC without Dr. Kizza Besigye is lacking its edge. It is a blessing for the NUP.

Yes, using Besigye for the firth time as a Presidential Candidate would make him a automatically a “sole candidate” and make him no different then the President himself. If he he did stand, he would be in the same light and have same sort of actions. Therefore, him bowing to the side showed maturity and I admire that.

However, Besigye on the sideline with his ‘Plan B’ has shown that the FDC lacks certain fire-power. The FDC needs the like him to boost public confidence. Wassawa Birigwa and Patrick Oboi Amuriat doesn’t have the swagger. Neither does Nathan Nandala-Mafabi or Ibrahim Semujju Naganda. They are all honourable gentlemen in their ways, but cannot muster a revolution.

This is why the FDC looks weak. Not that they are missing the ones who has gone to the NUP or Alliance for National Transformation (ANT). Yes, the FDC is firing back at the ones who has left. Just like Winnie Kiiza who went after the FDC herself. Because, it is so easy to go after the former party. Than, seeing what you didn’t yourself to bolster the party you left behind.

The FDC has internal party functions, they have their meetings for the two presidential candidates. Alas, it doesn’t go outside the already admires and members. The FDC doesn’t go to a broader spectrum of the electorate at this point. That is shown by how the campaign is going within the FDC. It is not like they are rocking the boat or making significant change.

Besigye shows why he was vital by stepping aside. The FDC lacks the tenacity and the candidates to excel this time around. FDC have been the place, been the party of opposition and has a unique position in the Republic. Now, they are really challenged. The NUP is taking over the slot. In a manner that Go Forward and others never were able to do.

FDC is showing weakness, which we haven’t seen before. That is not because the ones who left to Muntu’s ANT. No, its because of NUP and their role within the opposition. They are maybe the baby of the Opposition. However, the baby is growing up so fast. That it might be in it’s teenage phase by the polls.

The FDC better reflect on its role and be statesmen like. The way Nandala-Mafabi acted yesterday on NBS TV showed their weakness. Instead of being up and fighting the struggle. They we’re busy flexing on NUP and not configuring ways to expose the NRM. That shows the lack of mentality to actually following the words of Besigye.

The FDC should follow up on the ‘Plan B’ of Besigye. They should work tirelessly to dismantle, destroy and cause issues for the General Election. Instead, it is working to be a blunt opposition party. Besgiye didn’t start Walk to Work and Defiance to be kind, but to challenge the authorities. The current FDC leadership and campaign is just peaceful and to subtle to care about.

The FDC has proven in the past that they had the courage and character to finesse in the midst of adversity. Now, they are going into the 2021 elections with a softball approach. This because, Besigye is on the sideline and not in the scope of the polls.

The FDC needs Besigye more then they would like to show. They need the firebrand personality, they need his flex and his force. Because, he doesn’t care about the repercussions and the costs. He will fire on all cylinders and battle the law enforcement with everything he has. While, I am only seeing mediocre statements and posts.

Yes, the FDC are more than Besigye and its trying to prove itself. However, it shows that they need to learn from him. If they want to create a space and make a difference. At this very moment. They are neither slick nor moving in the right direction. They should go to Kasangati and get advice on how to move forward. This is not cutting it.

FDC had firepower and was feeling powerful ahead of 2016. Now in the 2020, they could just be another DP or UPC. They are bigger and has more known characters nationwide, but they are not frightening for the authorities. That is why the two Presidential Candidates can walk-around. As the President and NRM isn’t afraid of POA.

BTW: Besigye did the right thing not standing and showing true statesmanship. However, he needs to hold some private lessons with the FDC leadership to give them the edge that they are missing at the moment. Peace.

 

Opinion: Birigwa should join Muntu [and if you don’t, opt for ‘Plan B’]

Birigwa stressed the need to continuously engage President Yoweri Museveni in a discourse on the future of the country” (…) “We need a negotiated settlement with the Government, without fighting” – Wassawa Birigwa (Jeff Andrew Lule – ‘FDC’s Birigwa wants dialogue with museveni’

16.09.2020)

I don’t know about you, but it seems like Wassawa Birigwa better leave the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). The man sounds like another edition of Mugisha Muntu. The FDC Presidential Contender should act and have a more hostile stance. His a bit to peaceful.

Birigwa sounds like a bargain for Museveni. It seems like Birigwa haven’t learned from dialogue and negotiations with Museveni. In the end, Museveni will win. He will trick you, give you credit and dole out gifts. However, in the end you will loose.

Birigwa is playing a game he will not win. Wassawa is talking so softly and pragmatic that he seems to be in the wrong party. He should maybe switch to the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT). Because, if he believes in a negotiated deal with the NRM. He seems like a brother in arms with Muntu.

The FDC is the ‘Plan B’ and Defiance party. That is why the Mwenda’s and others are directly hostile. They are damaging the calm of the elites and the cronies. The one earning millions of shillings on impunity. They despise the FDC and the whole paradigm shift on weakening the government before a peaceful transition. Using civil disobedience and protest to get rid of the government. That means, no talks, but direct action to hurt the heart of power.

Alas, Birigwa seems to be on a crash course on this one. He is going head-to-head. This man could be the side-kick of Muntu. Especially sound like that. That is giving way to the man of 34 years. The one who duped the Nairobi Talks, tricked others and made a fool of other former heads of state.

Museveni will not be soft, he will sound smooth, but we stab you in your back when your not looking. That is what he does and Birigwa should know this.

That is why the idea alone should be buried and forgotten. It will not happen and will amount to no good. Unless, he wants to get a new deal to be Leader of Opposition in Parliament and get some millions shillings for the service.

Birigwa don’t need to engage Museveni. The FDC and the Presidential Candidates needs to challenge him. They need to aim at his heart, go directly at the things the President treasure and ensure he can loose it all. Not sweet talk and be a sweetheart. That will work in romcoms, but not in reality.

Birigwa this is weak tea. This will not work. Negotiate with Museveni is a lost cause. There is nothing to get there. He will get rid of you and ensure your fate. You will go missing and will not be found. If not end up in exile. There be no safe journey if you tries. Museveni will not give away power. The power he has held all of these years. That’s not happening.

To be clear, better sign up to ‘Plan B’, better start to listen to Besigye, because this is not it. If you believe it? Go to Muntu, his the pragmatic non-starter and the one for the future of the Christmas past. Peace.

Opinion: Besigye’s noble approach to 2021

We are at the crossroads when the junta is organising elections to legitimize themselves. In 2016, I was engaging two gears, one for elections and another for defiance/fighting. That is not very efficient. Election gears are our Plan A, the fighting gears are our plan B. And Plan B is quite wide and involving. It’s my humble decision that I have intensively discussed with my colleagues that we get some body to lead Plan A and you leave Plan B for me. Never ever imagine that I can leave the struggle. Never” – Dr. Kizza Besigye (19.08.2020).

No one can ever say that Dr. Kizza Besigye is predictable or a typical politician. The main opposition candidate in 4 campaigns. A man who has been in the trenches. A man who has a record of amount of arrests, charges and a few treason charges as well.

This man has seen plenty of prisons, days in house-arrest and know the price of standing up against the government. The man who has used all his time since the fall-out. Been principal about the peaceful transition and battling to end the National Resistance Movement and the reign of Museveni.

Today is not different there, but his vouching for two of the candidates for the Presidency in the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). This being Birigwa and Oboi Amuriat. These two are the two official candidates, but Byamugisha should also be counted in. Even as the former Presidential Candidate didn’t mention him today.

Besigye is doing the right thing. His proving his character and his stature. He still wants to achieve them same goal, but not having himself as a price. The freedom fighter and resilient opposition will continue to battle it head-on.

But the ghost of his fifth candidacy vanished today. The ones saying he would copy the President for Life is proven again. He has done that with stepping down as Party President and now not taking the mantle again as the Presidential Flag-Bearer. Now, the party have decide what goals and what it wants to achieve. The character in play is very different and who knows what path they will choose.

Besigye did the right thing. Another honourable act by the man. A man who has fought so tirelessly for this cause. His like Moses going in the desert and never getting the ability to reach Canaan’s land. He just get to see into it, but never live in it. The same seems to be happening with Besigye.

At this point, Besigye is not ending. He will still have influence and his voice will matter. His maybe not on the campaign trail as a Flag-Bearer. However, his will and determination in combination with his coordinated plans to undermine the government. Who knows what sort of plans to usher in. Now, that he doesn’t have to beg venues, travel across the republic and give speeches in every district across the Republic.

Besigye has shown his wise ways by backing down. However, his not giving up, but tooling up another way. Don’t underestimate this, but his proving this again. That the cause isn’t about Besigye, but its about the cause. That is the sort of man Besigye is and that why he deserves credit.

If he wasn’t a threat and wasn’t someone the government feared. Then they wouldn’t limit this man’s movement and this man’s opportunity to do his party works. That’s the proof of how far reaching this man is. Peace.

A look into three of the Presidential Nominees from the FDC…

Wasswa Birigwa, Patrick Oboi Amuriat and Moses Byamugisha is people within the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) who are vying for the highest position in the Republic. They are picking nomination forms and running for the Presidency.

Ambassador Wasswa Birigwa, the Party Chairman only turned to the FDC in 2015. So, its not like the man his been a long term ally of the party. He has been close to the President and his team. That’s why his appointed and had roles in the National Resistance Movement (NRM). It is not like the man has a been there long to show his credentials as a man for the FDC.

Patrick Oboi Amuriat (POA) has been the Party President since late 2017. Before that been the MP between 2001 to 2016. Been the part of the National Campaign Team in 2016 and believed in the Defiance campaign. A man of loyalty to Besigye and the cause of FDC.

Moses Byamugisha have been a Besigye aide and youth mobilizers in the party. His been consistent with his views and perspectives. The one that aimed first of the three. The others have waited to the last minute. Moses is clear about his vision and is using his youth teams to build a campaign ahead. It seems like his thinking ahead, as he is even going after the signatures to stand as “independent”.

We can also wonder if Nathan Nandala-Mafabi would stand as well? He would also be a man for the job. The experience in Parliament and knows how to express his vision to the public. Mafabi has it in him, but wonder if the party would take a man like that.

The FDC men of these are POA, Byamugisha and Mafabi. Birigwa haven’t been there that logn and should rest with his role as a Chairman. Harold Kaija would have more of a standing in comparison to Birigwa. Therefore, for me his a non-starter and someone who isn’t it in for the cause.

POA could become the Presidential Candidate. However, that will marginalize the party. The man has wishes and outbursts, that isn’t always that candid or calculated. He knows how to gain attention, but not always in the positive manner.

Byamugisha have another sort of way. His more of a young Muntu. Still, his defiant and a man for the cause. His not a softie, but a slow builder. Very direct and knows how to push. His the man whose been on the front-line and taken care of the ones arrested. Been a voice for the youths and the activists. A man who knows the party and support party objectives. That is why his a hopeful and a man who shouldn’t be neglected.

Mafabi haven’t taken the nomination forms. He hasn’t even said he wants it. Even as there been voices for him and his candidacy. His a man of the party. Mafabi is vocal and can conduct his affairs. There is really nothing ill to say about him. However, hard to know if he can be easily a man for full front mobilization. As his a sort of moderate, but still shows his capacities with all the years in politics.

The FDC has people who has abilities and capacities to be a Presidential nominee. They have the characters and the ones who knows the cost of doing so. They have also followed on the trial of Beisgye and know how things goes. They have been in the trenches and seen the reality of the battleground ahead of the polls. These people knows this…

I rather want to see Moses than POA. Rather see Mafabi than POA. POA can gain attention, but his personality would be harsh for plenty. POA has the right mind, but his way of expressing it is so unpolished. You need some filters before speaking. That does the other fellas have. Though I don’t trust Birigwa at all. That is however how I look at it. Maybe, someone else would look differently and maybe he would even prove it too me.

Nevertheless, want to wish the all the best. A luta continua. Peac.e