Opinion: The new arms sanctions on South Sudan will it matter?

I wish I didn’t had to write this piece, because of the constant warfare and civil-war that lasted and lasted. That the Government of South Sudan, Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement In-Government (SPLA/M-IG) with President Salva Kiir Mayardiit and his loyal people around him. There is also the main opposition from Dr. Riek Machar of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement – In Opposition (SPLM-IO) from there more and more people have deflected over the recent times. It is hard to keep count in all the rebellious groups. National Salvation Front (NAS) former SPLM-IO Lieutenant General Thomas Cirillo Swaka. As well as Dr. Lam Akol has founded National Democratic Movement (NDM). This is just the beginning and the list could go on. So the situation as the spark after peace agreement of 2015 is different. Because, there isn’t just two direct partners now. There is a bunch and one main government Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), who kind of lost meaning when the shooting in Juba happen and Machar has fled.

Though now that suddenly after all this time, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) and United Nation’s Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) isn’t creating the levels of trust. This combined with the other monitoring missions like Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (JMEC) is making the situation more fluid. While the politics are still controlled by tight little group around the President Kiir. The ones loyal to him get the perks and write his decree’s. Not like the started Parliament with the TGoNU of the peace-agreement has made any changes. Especially after First Vice-President Gen. Taban Deng Gai took the place in his part of SPLM-IO, therefore, it is two of those and you can wonder how real that organization under Deng Gai is. Since he has been controversial from the get-go.

With all this mine, with armed groups and state sanctioned violence not respecting agreements, are creating a continued insurgency and fleeing civilians. While all of this is destroying possible peace and institutions, as long as it is like this, it is the war-lords leading and not the ones building up state structures.

Therefore, that the European Union sanctions on three persons should be seen as good. These individuals are Gen Paul Malong, who has been thrown out of government and been under house arrest. He has his following, but also his enemies after how he did his affairs. Therefore, weird that they are sanctioning him when he is out of government and not when he was in it and using military force against the ones who stood in the way of Kiir. Then you have one in the government, Michael Makuei Leuth for his role in obstructing IGAD process and violations against human rights. Then the Inspector General of the Army Malek Reuben Riak, who is in-charge of buying weapons. Therefore, that sanction makes sense. But I’m puzzled by the time of sanctioning Malong. That should have been done in 2016 or early 2017. Not now in 2018, when his role is more meaningless, unless they are sanctioning him for his past.

The United States are doing this: “Specifically, the Department of State will amend the International Traffic in Arms Regulations to update the defense trade policy toward South Sudan by application of a policy of denial, with limited exceptions, on the export of defense articles and defense services to South Sudan, including all parties involved in the conflict” (Heather Nauert – ‘U.S. Arms Restrictions on South Sudan’ 02.02.2018).

So the United States are more reacting and promising more amending the previous Executive Order then of 2014. Since, the initial changes is not in the direct statement. We cannot know what sort of changes in the arms trade this will have. Especially since the United States are selling weapons to partner states in the East African Region. One of them is Uganda who has had reports of helping with exporting equipment and arms to South Sudan. So if the United States and European Union wants to be serious. Then, the countries with borders to South Sudan also need to be included.

This has not been shown, but that is also because bilateral security agreements and needs for others contributions on the continent. That is why the US hasn’t broken their peace and arms trade with either Kenya or Uganda. They are both involved in conflicts and parts of Blue Helmet operations in Somalia and Central African Republic. That is also a reason for the special arms trade. We can wonder if this will be persistence.

I doubt that the efforts and arms embargo, the sanctions of arms to South Sudan will have much effect. Since the armed groups will get through their channels and cross the borders into Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ugandan and even Kenya to get their supply. That means also if the Sudanese government in Khartoum still opportunity to create havoc, they can support as well. They are already hated in the West and has nothing to lose to trade to some of the newly created military outfits who fights to get rid of Kiir. This should not be shocking, it should be no news. Just like if the Uganda People’s Defense Force suddenly arrived back, even with no agreement with IGAD, UN or AU. Just showed up because Kiir called his friend in Entebbe. That would be plausible and possible, since both parties has done it before. The oil coins given by South Sudan has been positive to the coffers of Museveni. He wouldn’t mind some more. Even if his country is hosting over a million South Sudanese refugees by December 2017. Therefore, the stakes in Uganda is high and should worry that they have contributed not only with peaceful aspects, but also military. They have strengthen the arms and equipment of the SPLA, the government army in South Sudan.

With this knowledge, why are just the sanctions always falling directly on the inner-circle of government, when they are conspiring with neighbors who gladly supply them for a dime and cookie. We should also make sure they couldn’t use merchants of death, use Lord of War sorts of methods to supply the civil war in South Sudan. Even though we do and we just accept it. The EU, US and AU haven’t addressed the third country supply, an important aspect that needs to be scrutinized. Peace.

Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Mark Lowcock: Remarks at the launch of the 2018 South Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan and 2018 South Sudan Regional Refugee Response Plan (01.02.2018)

South Sudan: CEPO – “Allow Media to Cover IGAD-LED South Sudan Peace Revitalization Forum” (30.01.2018)

Local Statement by European Union Resident Member States in Sudan (31.01.2018)

KHARTOUM, Sudan, January 31, 2018 – Local Statement by European Union Resident Member States in Sudan:

“The Ambassadors of the resident EU Embassies in Sudan are very concerned by the prolonged detention without charge or trial of a large number of political leaders, human rights activists and other citizens, and by the repeated seizures of national newspapers.

We call on the Sudanese Government to release all these detainees as soon as possible, to ensure they are not mistreated and to respect the right of Sudanese people to peaceful freedom of expression and association, including freedom of the media. We condemn the violence used against peaceful protest, and continue to encourage those exercising their fundamental rights to do so peacefully.

The European Union and its member states remain committed to a stable, democratic and prosperous future for Sudan, for the benefit of its people.”

South Sudan: SPLM-IO Position Paper for the IGAD Higher Level Revitalization Forum (27.01.2018)

Remarks by the Secretary-General at the Consultative Meeting on South Sudan, With UN, IGAD and the African Union (27.01.2018)

South Sudan: UNMISS committed to protecting safety of displaced people in Protection of Civilians sites (27.01.2018)

South Sudan Human Rights Observatory – “UNMISS’ handling over suspects to authorities taht will torture and violate their rights is very wrong” (27.01.2018)

South Sudan: Communique of the 60th Extra-Ordinary Session of IGAD Council of Ministers on the Situation in South Sudan (27.01.2018)

The IGAD Council of Ministers held its 60TH Extra-Ordinary Session on January 27, 2018 in Addis Ababa under the chairmanship of H.E. Workneh Gebeyehu, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Chairperson of the IGAD Council of Ministers. The session was attended by H.E. Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Djibouti; H.E. Amina Mohamed Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Trade of the Republic Kenya; H.E Ambassador Ahmed Isse Awad, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Federal Republic of Somalia; H.E Dr. Matin Elia Lomuro, Minister of Cabinet Affairs of the Republic of South Sudan; H.E. Professor Ibrahim Ghandour, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Sudan;H.E. Sam Kutesa, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uganda; and; H.E Hirut Zemene, State Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

H.E. Festus Mogae, Chairperson of the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC); H.E. Mahboub Maalim, IGAD Executive Secretary and H.E. Ismail Wais,IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan were also in attendance.

The Special Envoys of the AU, UN, EU and Troika (Norway, UK, US) as well as representatives of China, Co-Chairperson of the IGAD Partners Forum (IPF) were also present at the meeting and made statements at the opening session.

After listening to the Progress Report of the IGAD Special Envoy on the steps taken to date on the Implementation of the outcomes of the first phase of the High Level revitalization Forum (HLRF)of the ARCSS, preparations to convene the second phase of the High-Level Revitalization Forum of the ARCSS and following exchange of views on the matter;

The Council;

Takes note with appreciation the reports by the Chairperson of JMEC, H.E Festus Mogae and the report of the IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan and endorses the recommendations therein.

Welcomes the progress made so far in the implementation of the High Level Revitalization of the ARCSS and in particular the signing of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement on December 21, 2017.

Notes the achievements gained so far and the preparations put in place to convene the second phase of the High-Level Revitalization Forum and commends the IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan and his task force for a job well done and while affirming the Council’s full support and commitment, encourages the Special Envoy to continue with his efforts, in collaboration with the partners until the process of the revitalization is completed in the shortest time possible.

Expresses its profound appreciation for the solidarity and firm commitment manifested by the AU, UN, Troika (Norway, UK, US) IPF, EU, and China to the process initiated by the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government in June 2017 to Revitalize the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS), and calls upon the partners to continue and enhance their political support, financialand otherassistance to the IGAD initiative.

Express its full support for the commendable task that CTSAMM has embarked upon based on its renewed mandate under the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and fully endorses the reports of violation incidents that CTSAMM has submitted to the IGAD Council of Ministers.

Condemns in the strongest terms the violators of the Agreement on the CoH of December last year and similar prior agreements, and holds them accountable for the loss of lives and human rights violations that they continue to cause in many parts of South Sudan and calls upon CTSAMM to proceed with urgency and carryout further investigations, identify individual violators and parties of the CoH Agreement based on which Council will take all necessary measure including targeted sanctions against individual violators and spoilerssuch as travel ban, asset freeze and recommend to the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) to carry out further targeted sanctions and other punitive measureson parties and individuals as appropriate.

Expresses its concern at the pronouncements made by high level government officials of the Transitional Government of the National UnitySouth Sudan and SPLM-IO (RM) against the letter and spirit of the CoH agreement and issued unwarranted attacks againstCTSAMM only because it issued reports on violations as per its mandate. Further reminded that CTSAMM was created by IGADto assist the implementation of the ARCSS. Council expresses its resolve that such acts shall not continue with impunity and individuals and groups shall bear consequences for their action of violation of the CoH Agreement Encourages the parties to cooperate with CTSAMM.

Notes with deep regret that in spite of the continuing efforts by IGAD, AU, and UN as well as the international partners, the people of South Sudan continue to suffer mainly because of the on-going violence and insecurity that has causedlarge scale famine and displacement of millions of the South Sudanese. In this connection Council welcomes the decision reached at the trilateral consultation convened the same day between the Chairperson of the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government, the Chairperson of the AUC, and the Secretary General of the UN that has affirmed the determination of the three organizations to work closely together to inter-alia support punitive measures against any South Sudanese party that fails to perform its obligation and violates the political settlement that emerges from the HLRF.

Approves that the second phase of the HLRF convenes on February 5 to 16, 2018 in Addis Ababa between the parties to the ARCSS, delegates representing the government, political parties and oppositions including estranged groups and Civil Society organizations to engage in good faith in the spirit of compromise, putting the interest of their people and the nation first, discuss concrete measures to restore permanent ceasefire; full and inclusive implementation of the ARCSS; and develop a revised and realistic timeline and implementation schedule towards a democratic election at the end of the transition period.

Affirms its resolve to speak with one voice and render all necessary support

to the people of South Sudan in their effort to restore peace in South Sudan through full and timely implementation of a revitalized ARCSS and in this connection underlines its conviction that the ARCSS remains the only viable option to attain peace in South Sudan.

Decides to remain fully seized of the situation in South Sudan and will redouble its effort towards the success of the High-Level Revitalization Forum.

Done in Addis Ababa, on January 27, 2018

AU, IGAD and UN Consultative meeting on the Republic of South Sudan – Joint Statement (27.01.2018)