Somalia: Juba Land State of Somalia – Office of Garbaharrey District Commisioner – Press Release (18.02.2022)

Somalia: Elections must be finalized amid worsening drought, Security Council hears (16.02.2022)

James Swan, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, briefed ambassadors on recent political developments.

NEW YORK, United States of America, February 16, 2022 – Somalia’s leaders must put aside their differences and urgently conclude a credible election process, the UN’s senior official in the country told the Security Council on Tuesday, noting that national elections are now more than a year behind schedule and women’s representation remains significantly off-track.

James Swan, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), briefed ambassadors on recent political developments – including the conclusion of Upper House of Parliament elections, and the ongoing House of the People election – as well as increasing attacks by the Al-Shabaab militant group and a deepening humanitarian crisis triggered by one of the region’s worst droughts in decades.

Critical election

The Special Representative said that, since his last briefing in November 2021, election plans – first agreed earlier that year – have progressed considerably.

“While this is a welcome development, this pace needs to be further accelerated,” he said, noting that only 130 of 275 seats of the House of the People have been filled to date.

Pointing out that 23 of those seats have so far gone to women, about 22 per cent of the total, he said that number fell well short of the 30 per cent agreed women’s quota for the country’s political leaders, and urged all actors to redouble their efforts to meet that target.

While political tensions among some Somali leaders continue to flare up sporadically – largely the result of “posturing and brinkmanship” – he reported that they have so far been quickly contained.

“Yet, a real risk remains that a miscalculation could lead these tensions to spill over into conflict,” he warned.

Militant attacks 

In the security arena, the Al-Shabaab militant group continues to pose a major security threat to Somalia, with Banadir region and South West states, serving as its centre of operations.

Recent months have also seen an increase in the use of improvised explosive devices and rising numbers of attacks in the capital, Mogadishu, with civilian casualties.

Noting that the future configuration of the African Union Mission in Somalia, known as AMISOM, is currently under review, Mr. Swan said the UN is engaged in discussions with the Federal Government of Somalia, the African Union and key donors, on various technical aspects of its future mandate and configuration.

Progress has also been registered in implementing the Somali Transition Plan, which is key both for the Mission’s reconfiguration and for determining how quickly it will transfer responsibilities to the Somali security forces.

‘Extremely dire’ humanitarian outlook

Meanwhile, Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa region is facing one of the most severe droughts in decades.

Mr. Swan warned the Council that some 7.7 million Somalis require humanitarian assistance this year, with 4.3 million impacted by drought and more than 270,000 displaced.

According to the recently released Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Assessment, published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), more than 1.4 million children in Somalia – nearly half of the country’s under-five population – are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition due to the ongoing drought.

A critical shortage of water has forced families to migrate to urban and peri-urban centres, adding to the 2.9 million people who were already displaced by conflict and climate change.  Since November 2021, water prices in some of the worst-affected areas have risen by as much as 72 per cent.

Warning the Council that the UN Humanitarian Response Plan for Somalia currently stands at only 2 per cent funded, the Special Representative reiterated his call on donors to increase their support.

Somalia: Federal Government of Somalia and African Union – Joint Statement (09.02.2022)

Somalia: Jubbaland State of Somalia – Press Release – Notice, Warning and Declaration (06.02.2022)

Somaliland: Somaliland Non-State Actors Forum (SONSAF) – Press Release (30.01.2022)

Somaliland: Somaliland Non-State Actors Forum (SONSAF) – Press-Release (17.01.2022)

Somalia: Puntland Government of Somalia – Press Statement (14.01.2022)

Somalia: Ministry of Internal Security – Press Statement (01.01.2021)

Somalia: Council of Presidential Candidates (C.P.C) – Statement (28.12.2021)

Mogadishu Tensions: It is now Roble Vs. Farmaajo

“We will storm the presidential palace and capture him alive” – Pro-Opposition Forces (Keyd Media, 27.12.2021)

Just as things where moving slowly in concerns to the postponed elections in Somalia. The “interim” and “transitional” President Farmaajo have today suspended Prime Minister Roble. They have squabbled earlier in the year, but today Farmaajo upped up the ante. While it is reported that the “interim” President ordered security forces to the house of Roble and wanted to take him away from his office.

Therefore, the tensions has gotten worse. Earlier in the day, there was reports of troop movement in Mogadishu. There is now reports that the pro-opposition forces of Mogadishu will encircle and take Farmaajo now. They want to prevent the “interim” President from holding a press conference today.

As Prime Minister Roble came out with his concern and there been change in leadership within the cabinet. The PM has appointed Abdukadir Mohamed Nur as the new Defence Minister. There is reports of beefed up security at the Presidential Palace and such. That is clear and evident, as the tensions are now running high.

Some reports are saying that the Villa Somalia is sealed off now. The pro-opposition forces are reported to block roads leading to Villa Somalia and the Presidential Palace. However, it is hard to know. As there haven’t been new reports the last few hours.

Nevertheless, this is spiralling out quick and we can wonder where this will go. The Somali National Security Forces (SNSF) have threatened to arrest the “interim” President at a Press Conference today. Therefore, we know that the bloodless coup d’etat that Farmaajo tried himself to pull off earlier today has backfired.

The latest news are that the pro-opposition forces has taken over the Dabka junction and the nearby neighbourhoods. This is a clear indication of where things are going. These moves aren’t making things better, but becoming a stalemate of which we don’t know. As both parties are armed and assessing their strengths. We can wonder when the “interim” President uses “Gorgor” to attack his enemies, as they have been donated to keep him in power. As the specialized unit of 5000 soldiers who listens to Farmaajo’s command. That should be worrying and we can possibly see new skirmished in Mogadishu. Just like we saw in April 2021.

This here is worrying and tragic, as the men in office and in power uses military means to their own benefit. To settle their private grievances and all for personal gains. What we seeing now isn’t a sign of strength, but also what sort of state Farmaajo is leaving behind. After all these years in power … Farmaajo should have left things more stable and secure. However, it is more fragile and even more insecure. That’s the legacy he leaves behind, as his willing to risk anything to be “re-elected” again.

That’s why we are seeing in December 2021, the same we saw in April 2021. This is tragic, but also the state of affairs. When political changes are occurring, the weapons have to be used and the use of military means is on the table. Instead of having talks and proper dialogue. The “interim” President rather use guns and ammunition. Therefore, not strange that the pro-opposition are answering with same means. However, that also makes the situation more dire and causes concern for what is to come.

Farmaajo is clearly playing a dangerous game and you can wonder how many times he can pull this one off. Before he used Kheire to do it for him. Now he thought he could get rid of a second PM. That’s the sort of fella he is and the world can see it. Peace.