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Currency Squabble: The Landlord and Tenant Bill of 2018!

The most controversial provision in the The Landlord -Tenant Bill is that, requiring all rent to be paid in shillings rather than dollars as earlier proposed. Lands minister Betty Amongi has explained why all transactions must be done in shillings” (NTV Uganda, 05.07.2019).

The Members of Parliament and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) continues to insist there are some clauses or parts of the legislation that says there no regulation or stipulation, which says the tenants has to pay in Uganda Shillings and not in US Dollars. Alas, after screening throw it. There is none. Nothing, nada and no proof of UGX or a specific currency in play.

The MPs and the NRM must take people for fools, it is easy to download the bill from the Parliament web-page and browse through. You don’t have to be a legal scholar to understand the texts either.

Like Clause 23: “(1) The rent payable for any premises under a tenancy shall be determined by mutual agreement of the parties to the tenancy”. This here opens up a lot of can of worms. It does not specific say if should be paid in Euros, US Dollars or Shillings.

Some might say the continuation of the clause, which stipulates: “(2) All rent obligations or transactions shall be expressed, recorded and settled in the shilling, unless otherwise provided under any enactment, or is lawfully agreed to between the parties to an agreement under any lawful obligation”. Here it is specified, but there is a major but, the clause opens up for other lawfully agreements made between the parties. Meaning, you don’t have too, if you have a legal obligation between the parties. This is restricting it, but not deeming it unfit to pay in US Dollars.

By the clauses or codes in the law. There is by no clear definition of the tenant agreement needed to have it in shillings. These are the only one specific enough and they are not done properly. If the Members of Parliament and their legal teams had put it together. They would have settled with “shall be expressed, recorded and settled in the shilling and be paid in no other currency” end, stop. However, they made a reasonable suggestion and gave way.

Therefore, whatever the state says, the Minister and the news is broadcasting isn’t true. Unless, they have secret text, an draft, which was put in motion and amended to the bill. Which by my estimate, doesn’t exist, other than in the minds of those who enacted the law. The minister have not established, which provision or clause, which mentions only pay in shilling. Because there is none. It does not act that way.

This is bad work of the state, lazy work of the MPs and embarrassing performance by the Minister Amongi. Who really just thinking that people cannot understand or reads the bill their passing. Because, in the provision in question, there is byline, a loophole giving way to pay the rent in other currencies.

Therefore, the next time you guys make laws or bills. Ensure the provisions are there and has the wording, the intended purpose and crafted in way, which doesn’t put the important change in the law in question. Which this one does. Peace.

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Breaking News: Competition Commission reaches settlement with Citibank N.A. for colluding (20.02.2017)

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Today, the Competition Commission has filed with the Competition Tribunal, a settlement agreement reached with Citibank N.A. for being part of the forex trading cartel.

The Commission found that from at least 2007, Citibank N.A. and its competitors had a general agreement to collude on prices for bids, offers and bid-offer spreads for the spot trades in relation to currency trading involving US Dollar/Rand currency pair. Further, the Commission found that Citibank N.A. and its competitors manipulated the price of bids and offers through agreements to refrain from trading and creating fictitious bids and offers at particular times.

Citibank N.A. will pay an administrative penalty of R69 500 860 (Sixty Nine Million Five Hundred Thousand Eight Hundred and Sixty Rands). This figure does not exceed 10% of Citibank N.A.’s annual turnover in the Republic of South Africa. Citibank N.A. undertook to cooperate with the Commission and avail witnesses to assist the prosecution of the other banks that colluded in this matter.

On 15 February 2017, the Competition Commission referred a collusion case to the Competition Tribunal for prosecution against Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Limited, BNP Paribas, JP Morgan Chase & Co, JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A, Investec Ltd, Standard New York Securities Inc., HSBC Bank Plc, Standard Chartered Bank, Credit Suisse Group; Standard Bank of South Africa Ltd, Commerzbank AG; Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited, Nomura International Plc., Macquarie Bank Limited, Citibank N.A., ABSA Bank Limited (ABSA), Barclays Capital Inc, Barclays Bank plc (Respondents).

“This settlement was done to encourage speedy settlement and full disclosure to strengthen the evidence for prosecution of the other banks,” said the Commissioner, Tembinkosi Bonakele.

Ends.

For more information or for media enquiries, please contact:
Sipho Ngwema, Head of Communications
012 394 3493/ 078 048 1213/ SiphoN@compcom.co.za

Black First Land First march to the South African Reserve Bank (19.02.2017)

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Public Protector’s preliminary report found that ABSA illegally benefited from apartheid cash injections from the South African Reserve Bank.

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, February 19, 2017 – On Friday, the Black First Land First (BLF) movement marched to the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) (APO.af/JsJaEi) to demand that the institution act on the Public Protector’s preliminary report which found that ABSA illegally benefited from apartheid cash injections from the SARB.

BLF joined the ANC Youth League (ANCYL) recently in a march to ABSA headquarters (APO.af/Y21xVq) to demand that #ABSAmustPay. The Public Protector, Adv Busisiwe Mkhwebane, found that ABSA should pay R3.2 billion.

BLF said they wanted the SARB to take seriously and act on findings of the CIEX report, which investigated money stolen during the late stages of institutionalised apartheid. The report found that R26 billion could be immediately recoverable.

The aim of the march was to also implore the SARB to punish corrupt banks, ABSA, Standard Bank and Investec, which the Competition Commission found (APO.af/VsZ1A9) had manipulated and fixed the rand/dollar price.

South Africa National Treasury statement on Competition Commission finding on the Banks (16.02.2017)

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The South African Banks under review for having price-fixed their currency exchange in secret inside deals!

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In the nation under President Jacob Zuma and African National Congress (ANC) there been done some shady dealings between government and private industry, this has been happening over years. Now the Financial Market and Banks have internally been agreeing on values and exchange rates on the South African Rands (ZAR), this is a luxury where the banks have set fixed prices and values. That in the end has given profits and sold the Rand on the open market. This in mind with the fixing and securing more profits for the banks as they we’re trading the currency on the open market. Also, to foreign investors and currency traders that try to make a profit on exchange and selling currency back again at a later date.

So this sort of financial manipulation has made sure for the 17 banks that have made agreements between the banks and communication that most likely paid more for the rand or more used more dollars for getting the South African currency. As proven with the statements of the Competition Commission and the South African Reserve Bank, however, the trial and the review will continue to shed light on the possible internal-trade in the financial business of the Republic.

The opening of review of Forex exchange of the Rand:

“The Competition Commission has today referred a collusion case to the Tribunal for prosecution against Bank of America Merrill Lynch International Limited, BNP Paribas, JP Morgan Chase & Co, JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A, Investec Ltd, Standard New York Securities Inc., HSBC Bank Plc, Standard Chartered Bank, Credit Suisse Group; Standard Bank of South Africa Ltd, Commerzbank AG; Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited, Nomura International Plc., Macquarie Bank Limited, ABSA Bank Limited (ABSA), Barclays Capital Inc, Barclays Bank plc (Respondents). The Commission has been investigating a case of price fixing and market allocation in the trading of foreign currency pairs involving the Rand since April 2015. It has now referred the case to the Tribunal for prosecution. The Commission found that from at least 2007, the respondents had a general agreement to collude on prices for bids, offers and bid-offer spreads for the spot trades in relation to currency trading involving US Dollar / Rand currency pair. Further, the Commission found that the respondents manipulated the price of bids and offers through agreements to refrain from trading and creating fictitious bids and offers at particular times. Traders of the respondents primarily used trading platforms such as the Reuters currency trading platform to carry out their collusive activities. They also used Bloomberg instant messaging system (chatroom), telephone conversation and had meetings to coordinate their bilateral and multilateral collusive trading activities. They assisted each other to reach the desired prices by coordinating trading times. They reached agreements to refrain from trading, taking turns in transacting and by either pulling or holding trading activities on the Reuters currency trading platform. They also created fictitious bids and offers, distorting demand and supply in order to achieve their profit motives” (CompCom, 2017).

South African Reserve Bank statement:

“The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has noted today’s announcement by the Competition Commission South Africa (Competition Commission) that it has completed its investigation initiated in April 2015 and has referred to the Competition Tribunal for prosecution a case of price fixing and market allocation in the trading of foreign currency pairs involving the South African Rand (ZAR)” (…) “The rand is a globally traded currency. Some 30.0% of daily turnover in the ZAR takes place in South Africa, and turnover with non-residents accounts for 57.5% of domestic turnover. Figures published by the Bank for International Settlements indicate that for the month of April 2016, the daily average worldwide turnover in the foreign exchange market involving the ZAR was approximately USD49.0 billion. This represented 1% of total turnover in the international foreign exchange markets” (…) “The SARB sees the allegations in a serious light. The SARB will allow the legal processes now initiated to run their course, and will continue to monitor developments closely to inform any action that we may need to embark upon in accordance with our mandate and jurisdiction” (SARB, 2017).

So we can now wait and see what the efforts and effects. If this can hit the currency and its value, if this has been a fix to juice it up or even put in a bubble where the banks has earned profits on illegitimate transactions as the communications between the banks has set standards of the prices and expenses, so the costumers and businesses has overpaid for the currency in trading. This proves that the greed and coins goes together. The banks of South Africa ceased an opportunity and grasped it.

We have to see when the Competition Commission of South Africa releases their report and their conclusions as the review and the findings of colluding will be put in court. However, the world gets to see the internal trading and agreements between the banks to fix the prices of currency, especially the value of the South African Rand (ZAR). Therefore the release of information on how they fixed it and how they speculated on it, will show how banks did this. Trust this, the report and the papers on this financial transactions and agreements will be juicy and show the inner-works of the banks. That is knowledge that the Republic of South Africa deserves, as these people and professionals are the ones making sure the monies are used and taken care off. Peace.

Reference:

South African Reserve Bank – ‘SA Reserve Bank Notes Competition Commission Decision’ (15.02.2017) link: https://www.resbank.co.za/Lists/News%20and%20Publications/Attachments/7681/SARB%20statement%20on%20Competition%20Commission%20announcement.pdf

The Competition Commission South Africa (CompCom) – ‘Breaking News: Competition Commission prosecutes banks (currency traders) for collusion’ (15.02.2017)

Opinion: Zimbabwe’s Government troubles with the West, but easy accessible with the Chinese

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“No, I don’t care about that, the international — what they decide is entirely their own affair — their own affair. I’m concerned about Zimbabwe, and I’m concerned about the lives of the people of Zimbabwe. And don’t forget, it was my party which brought democracy into the country. I fought the British. We had to fight the British for democracy for one man, one person, one vote” – Robert Mugabe (Amanpour. 24.09.2009 interview – CNN).

There are these days that vicious attacks from President Mugabe will be normal, where the words of oppressive colonial attacks on Zimbabwe will be addressed with flowery perfection from the old-timer, the long-running President of the Southern African Nation of Zimbabwe, the country he have had in his hands since the Lancaster Agreement and the release of the Country from the British Colonial.

President Mugabe HBD Harare Herald

At one point he we’re acting more British than African, but with the Age, he has more and more hated the Europeans and Americans, as their respect for the leader have dwindled. The Respect has fallen as much as the respect for a McDonalds Burger has gone down in the West.

He we’re the man at one point, until the Aparteid of South Africa went sour and his gold-star got taken away. After that he must felt betrayed as he was the man of the continent and the man who even we’re knighted by the United Kingdom at one point and even a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. So the rich history of the man and ruler is vast. My words and reasoning will be belittling the histories and the vicious need for power the man have.

Though there vast amounts of irony from the leader, that is now clear as the sun is setting and rising again. Just as he has blasted the West, had have land-reforms exiting the White farmers and their plantations as they we’re the grand issue of the land. Surely there we’re in-balance between the ‘Africans’ and the ‘Afrikaans’; which is well-known as the British and the Dutch settlers took the best land and let the ‘locals’ become workers and renters. It was natural for anyone who lead to wish for a difference and create a better life for more citizens of Zimbabwe. Though the technic of giving ZANU-PF Elite the best land and evict landowners that have run farms for generations without compensations is just critical; though the colonial powers stole the land, there are ways of punishing the generation for the sins of the for-fathers while still trying to mend on the insufficient systems of the present day. Something that is lost tale and lost option as brutality have become the station of Mugabe, ever since he got his Army and Police trained by the North Koreans. As long as he got rid of his worst opponent in Joshua Nkomo and even raided and massacred the loyalist in the Matabeleland.

With this history and with his reign of power; all of these initial acts of violence and the control of the state; that he has exhausted the state and the economy, while blowing the donor funding from the West and later when they quit funding his oppressive regime. Saying it was colonial acts of belittling African Nation, while he himself was harassing people and detaining opposition of ‘Movement for Democratic Change’. Even at one point accepting the power-sharing agreement made by Thabo Mbeki, though partial and used by Zuma to overpower him in South Africa, the last stain on Mbeki; we’re the weak agreement that gave the Executive back to the loser Mugabe in 2008, while the winner got the VP Tsvangirai. So the tried peaceful transition to another leader was not successful and a reason why the 92 year old man is the king-pin of the Republic Zimbabwe.

Zim Car

“I think in relation to sport, we set out the position many, many times, but nothing that happens in relation to that should take anything away from our total condemnation of the way that Robert Mugabe is making the plight of the people in Zimbabwe terrible. Now whatever issues there are to do with sport, you can put those to one side for a moment, the issue is how do we make sure that we put the maximum pressure on Robert Mugabe’s regime in order that we change the situation in Zimbabwe and change it for the better politically, but also in humanitarian terms as well. And I totally agree with what Prime Minister John Howard was saying just a moment or two ago. There are no grounds, so far as we can see, for saying that there has been any significant progress at all, indeed if anything the situation has got worse, and that means that we have got to keep up maximum international pressure upon the regime” – Prime Minister Tony Blair (Jon Howard Interview at Joint Press Conference with PM Howard of Australia, 07.05.2003).

So that he blames the West and address the West for the shortcomings is natural, but the Economic instability is not all on the Western Sanctions, as that is also because the ZANU-PF, the Benzes bought under the ZANU-PF elite while the schools depleted, the civil servants delayed salaries, the missing of foreign exchange and dollars in the country are run-out. There are reasons as the nepotism, the unstructured business, the export and the agricultural inefficiencies together with draught and all the weak governance that creates deficiencies and devalued the economy. There are reasons for the economy crashed as the empty coffers while the elite was eating elephants and entertaining the Luxury Hotels in the Honor of the President Mugabe latest birthday. So there is money, but they are spent on truffles for the President, instead on citizens and services for the public. That is not the fault of the Western that he claims, together with reforms and not institutions, but instead all centralized in the hands of President.

Zim 2008

That is from the same man who has put his hate on the West, as they are sanctioning the Zanu-PF regime and Mugabe long-term reign of the Nation. The same man who have said anything possible about the Americans and British, the man who has claimed that they are the reason for all the troubles, have no quarrel this year and of recent years traded with the Chinese government and their national companies. Like there 128 development projects from 2000 – 2012 made by the Chinese in Zimbabwe. While the Zimbabwean Government have also planned to go from US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (was planned in 2015) as the official currency as the Mugabe regime is more in the pocket of the Chinese, than everybody else (Archdeacon, 2016).

This is also a way of Chinese to grade their power and take more control on the African Continent, as the Zimbabwean have such a monetary fiscal issues that anybody who will clear debt and will drop fresh coins to the regime is friend, especially when there only optional to let the Chinese work and build there; as a way of renting the country away, while the Elite eats the money. Something the country wished the IMF would let them do, but since they are Western, French and even US Dollar fueled they are not as willing as Beijing, therefore Mugabe will easily play kind Uncle Bob, while blasting the West, which is a good luck for the Zimbabwean Government. Though we know and they know, they would easily said ‘YES’ to the loans from the International Monetary Fund.

Zim Money Billion

So the hatred towards the once who was the allies and friends, like he was once so proud of English culture and being knighted, the man who once was their ally and turned into a villain, the question if he was a needed villain for the British, as he fought their colonial rule under Smith Government in Rhodesia and made the new state Zimbabwe. Which was a feat and was something that people could look up-to, when he surged the power he consoled it by all means and even ended lives to keep it; this what happen to Nkomo and to the once that he used the military on, as they we’re not loyal to him; instead to the Opposition that wasn’t him. That is why it is ZANU-PF, as they we’re two parties to take control over and even consolidated with all ways. The same he has done with the state and therefore the disarray and the economic instability, therefore the stop of using own currency and American Dollar together with the newly planned transition towards the Chinese Yuan.

There are an issue and aggression from Mugabe towards the West, he has fought them all his life, but also had a an admiration for it, as he would easily wear Western clothes and import expensive westernized products, as his wife spends the government funds there and not in Beijing, even if the government gets the funds there and development projects from there now, as the IMF and other does not offer the sanctions nation with fiscal financial subsidizes and loans. Peace.

Reference:

Archdeacon, Olivia – ‘China buys its first African colony for a meagre $40 million’ (15.01.2016) link: http://capx.co/china-buys-its-first-african-colony-for-a-meagre-40million/

Press Release: China donates USD 1.2 Million to support the AU Mission in Somalia (08.09.2015)

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Uganda’s Medium Term Debt Management Strategy for FY 2015/2015 – FY 2019/2020: What is it all about?

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Here you will see what strategies and plans the Government of Uganda has made for their loans and debts. This is about how the Government will deal with it and how it can be done. The numbers tell what they can expect if they pick the certain ways of dealing with it. It shows what can happen and the shock scenarios are important.

This should be seen as important to follow especially with the growing debt and the rates that come with that. Therefore it will be something that should be monitored. From the sustainability of the ratio according the GDP should be something that also brings fear. Especially since this will have general effect on how the general economy will be hit with the down payments and strain the basic budgets of the government. There its a viable thing that should be well known by people, because this will have big importance until FY 2019/2020

“The Uganda Vision 2040 aspires to transform Uganda into a modern and prosperous society within 30 years through provision of adequate infrastructure, development of agriculture, human resources and services sectors, enlargement of markets, strengthening of the private sector and through industrialization” (…) “Implementation of the Uganda 2040 Vision will require substantial resources that will partly be garnered through the domestic and international borrowing. To ensure that our debt remain sustainable, such borrowing has to be carried out through a properly formulated Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)” (MTDS, P: 4, 2015).

“The key aim for the MTDS2015 is to ascertain the cost and risk trade-off of financing the medium term fiscal deficit through borrowing while remaining mindful of our debt sustainability” (…) “To meet Government’s financing requirements at the minimum cost, subject to a prudent degree of risk; (ii) to ensure that the level of public debt remains sustainable, both in the medium and long term horizon while being mindful of future generations; and (iii) to promote the development of the domestic financial market (MTDS, P: 6, 2015).

Strategies:

  1. Traditional post debt relief approach of prioritizing concessional financing.
  2. A debut Euro-Bond: The Sovereign Bond Issuance which risks the cost and the trade-off of the International-Market and financing alternative.
  3. Non-Concessional borrowing and meeting with bilateral with commercial creditors negotiations.
  4. Reliance on Domestic-Financing establishing the cost and risk trade-offs, which risk less since it’s from the Domestic-Financial-Market.

(MTDS, P: 6-7, 2015).

Cost & Risk Debt Uganda

External Debt Stock:

From FY2006/2007 it was Domestic Debt and Outstanding(DoD) was US$1.47 billion. And in FY 2013/2014 had risen to US$4.3 billion (MTDS, P: 13, 2015).

External Debt Stock Uganda

Domestic Debt Stock:

Domestic Debt Stock

Refinancing:

External debt maturity for the ATM (Average Time for Maturity) was 18.9 Years. The plan is setting that the in 2.3 years will the ATM be 11.8 years.

Public Debt Maturity Profile under REFINANCING

Currencies:

Currency Distribution P17

Aggregrate Medium Term Debt Strategy:

The outlook for the 5.3% in FY 2014/2015 and is looking to reach 5.8% in FY 2015/2016. The plan forward is to attain an average 6.3% for the fiscal framework (MTDS, P: 17, 2015).

Selected Medium Term P18

Government expenditure is on an average to be 20.9% of the GDP for the FY 2014/2015. In the 2015/2016 it is 21.7% of the GDP. The main expenditure for the budget is the infrastructure projects like the upgrading of Entebbe International Airport, Hydro Power projects and Albertine Regional Airport. The total cost for the projects is US$7.0 Billion. There is set to be 5% target for the inflation rate and the exchange rate is set for 12.1% in FY 2015/2016 and average for 2.4% the rest of the years for the medium term (MTDS P: 17-18).

Stylized Financing Instruments:

Two instruments:

i: International Development Association (IDA) has the interest 0.75% for the maturity of 38 years.

ii: African Development Fund (ADF) has the interest 0.75% with a maturity of 40 years.

iv: The concessional is with fixed rate loans with 23 years maturity and 6 year grace period. These terms comes from IDA-Blend, Kuwait Fund, Abu Dhabi Fund, UK-Export Credit Guarantee.

v: The fixed rate instrument on the Euro Bond which is priced on a ten-years US-Treasury interest rate.

vii: With Pure commercial loans is a instruments with a 7 years of maturity and with a 3 years grace period.

viii: One T-Bills is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 91 days, 181 days,  and 364 days.

ix: Four T-Bonds is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 2, 5, 10 and 15 years.

(MTDS, P: 18-21, 2015).

Stylized Financing Strategy P22

Four scenarios for the Market:

First Scenario: The first thing is possible currency depreciation – is that in the FY 2015/2016 can end up with 30% depreciation and will have to work to sustain that through to 2019/2020.

Second Scenario: A sharp off increase in domestic rates for 2015/2016 and at the Interest Rate will follow the baseline of the Foreign Currency.

Third Scenario: Domestic Interest Rate still set to be baseline assumption that we’re set. And that the denomination on the Foreign Currency following the instruments set for it.

Fourth Scenario: That the Decapitation of the UGX towards the US Dollar in the amount of 15%, that can lead to a shock in the domestic yield a curve for the 2015/2016.

(MTDS, P: 23, 2015).

Analysis of the strategies:

That the total debt-to-GDP from the current level of 28.6% by the end of June 2014, if the end of the time it might end up with 50% level by 2020. This is because of substantial projected increases the fiscal deficit. With the worst strategy the interest rate can go from 1.4% in June 2014 to become 4% in 2020 (MTDS, P: 24, 2015).

MTDS P25

 

MTDS P29

 

MTDS P30

Hope you have found it interesting and learn something of the Government of Uganda planning of dealing with their debt. And how they see the future for their economy. Then what kind of strategies and scenario’s that could appear and how they will appear together. The Financial Years that are ahead and how the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development thinks of their economy. Hope it give you something and also a little feeling about how the economy might progress.

Peace.

Reference:

Republic of Uganda/Directorate of Debt & Cash Management – Ministry of Financing, Planning & Economic Development: ‘Medium Term Debt  Management Strategy’ (MTDS): 2015/2016 -2019/2020 (April 2015).

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