“When it comes to a political disagreement like we have here (South Sudan), we must have a scientific approach to its resolution, should it be resolved by force or other ways? Force should be reserved for the enemy. A disagreement among brothers should not be resolved by force,” President Museveni said” (…) “Some people have been coming to Uganda. Malong [Paul] and others. They come and talk to our people. They want to start a war because they claim Salva Kiir is being controlled by some elders. But should that be cause for war?” Museveni asked” (Kasasira, 2018).
It is okay, that anyone want all the stakeholders, all the opposition militias, all the war-lords to a sit-down and settle differences. That is cool and that is good, if there was a substantial effort for doing so, but a leader like President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Is not believable in this grace. He is not the kind of man to this himself. He rather get rid of his enemies and settle the score in his favor. That is what he has done in the past and is known for. He peddles a fake-peace, signs agreements and when the opposition, thinks all is golden. He strikes with fierce force and takes it all. That is Machiavellian leader Museveni is. Instead of having a proper sit-down in Kasese, he burned the Royal Palace and killed guards like their where vermin. So, that the Ugandan President said this, is sort of poetic.
But if we go further down into history, into when he was still a warlord himself and not a 32 year long life President, he was still just mere guerrilla leader, which used force for his own benefit. This was the Nairobi Talks accord and agreement, which he first signed and later dropped like a cold stew.
“Mr. Museveni never helped to carry out the peace accord, refusing to take his post as vice chairman of a reconstituted military council or to nominate members to the council” (Rule, 1986). “Mr. Museveni, who signed a peace accord last month in Nairobi with General Okello in an effort to end years of bloodshed, characterized his participation in the peace talks as ”very painful” because he was sitting there ”with the criminals across the table.” He said he agreed to the accord because of pressure from other nations, which he criticized as being more interested in opening roads for trade than in the future of Uganda. He said his followers had made it clear they would not take part in any government in which ”criminals” were involved. The accord was never put into effect, and Mr. Museveni moved on Kampala a month after it was signed” (Rule, 1986).
That is why I have a big trouble with Museveni as a mediator. Not only his army is involved with the SPLA and even has a defense agreement (MoU) with them. Which means he is impartial and is indirectly a trading-partner and weapon-brother of President Salva Mayardit Kiir, which should be a no-no for anyone. However, that is not the worst issue, its a serious breach. But its the knowledge of how he himself was to settle the score and take Kampala in 1986.
In 1985 December, as the Okello Government was finalizing the Cease-Fire’s and putting down arms as the Nairobi Peace Agreement was supposed to do. Museveni armed to his teeth, continued to fight the government army and within a month took Kampala from him. That was the immoral acts and securing his NRA/M the power. Which he haven’t ceased since. So he calls the other parties and the other politicians at the talks in 1985 as criminals, however, he didn’t follow the agreement either. So, he isn’t as noble as he think he is. He used force to get his way, when he needed it. He used force against his brothers to take power and never let it go.
That is why he is the wrong guy to mediate anything. He will kill the ones who steps in his backyard and tries to take his cattle. A man who signed an agreement, but never had plans to follow it. As he wouldn’t be muffled in a coalition, which he couldn’t control. Is a man whose supposed to mediate in a conflict between various parties with different interests and motivations? Nah, you cannot be serious.
President Museveni shouldn’t be the one to trust this with, he will make sure President Kiir gets a head start and gets the weapons he needs to smash the opposition, to smash the rebel outfits and make sure the militias are dying. That is what Museveni does, he doesn’t speak peace. Unless, you leave him in peace in power. Than, you can do whatever you want. Please, remember to him your tax too. Peace.
Kasasira, Ridsel – ‘Why Museveni is urging Kiir, opposition to hold talks’ (06.05.2018) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/SpecialReports/-Museveni-Kiir-opposition-South-Sudan-SPLM-Igad-Machar/688342-4546986-30js91/index.html
Rule, Susan – ‘REBEL SWORN IN AS UGANDA PRESIDENT’ (30.01.1986) link: https://www.nytimes.com/1986/01/30/world/rebel-sworn-in-as-uganda-president.html
Rule, Susan – ‘REBELS IN UGANDA TAKE CONTROL OF CAPITAL, BUT BATTLES CONTINUE’ (26.01.1986) link: https://www.nytimes.com/1986/01/26/world/rebels-in-uganda-take-control-of-capital-but-battles-continue.html
There are something very wrong when an arms supplier of two decades like President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda, are involved in the mediation and peace negotiation in South Sudan. Even if President Salva Kiir Mayardit are wanting him. They have had a longstanding relationship, which is the proof of the arms trade and helping each with armies when needed be. Therefore the impartiality with having Museveni isn’t there. Museveni will secure Kiir and his fraction as that pays him in the long-run and not necessary the best for South Sudan. Just take a look!
On the 26th May at the State House:
“Chaired a meeting of three different South Sudanese factions, seeking to reunite the South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. The meeting at State House, Entebbe was attended by representatives of the SPLM in government, SPLM in opposition and former detainees. This followed a request by His Excellency Salva Kiir that I help in the mediation process. The meeting agreed to establish a working committee that will develop a workplan on implementation of the Arusha Accord, end the war and plan for peace. The meeting tasked as me as mediator, and new chair of the East African Community to determine time and venue for the next meeting, which I will do” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 26.05.2017).
The relationship between Museveni and the conflict in South Sudan, can go back in to old libraries like the report from the Independent paper in the United Kingdom:
“The Nigerian-owned Boeing cargo plane was forced to land at Larnaca on Tuesday during a flight from from Tel Aviv to Entebbe in Uganda. According to the Cypriot civil aviation authorities, it was carrying weapons to Uganda. A senior Ugandan official said yesterday it was the first his government knew of the consignment, and there is speculation that the weapons may be destined for the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, struggling for survival in southern Sudan” (…) “The Sudanese government seems to regard Uganda as a supplier of the SPLA. Reliable sources in the area say Khartoum has been supplying dissidents elements in Uganda who have mounted random attacks near Sudanese refugee camps in northern Uganda” (Dowden, 1994). So Museveni has supplied the SPLA weapons for over 20 years and the recent reports show similar activity with Ukraine plane and pilot, instead of being a Nigerian one like the old report. Therefore, with the history of supplying weapons and ammunition to the SPLA. There isn’t like Museveni has chosen side in the conflict. The National Dialogue, which isn’t allowing Dr. Riek Machar and therefore excluding the real SPLM-IO, as well as the newly forged rebel-groups. Which is either dissidents of the SPLM-IO or the SPLM/A in the recent year.
So with the sanctions of who is taking part of the National Dialogue, it will not be sincere, since all of the parties are not involved. The rebels and their leaders are not in communication with the government. Therefore, President Kiir has an ally in the negotiation instead of mediator without any inside agreements. That means that President Museveni will be on the side of Kiir and not on a genuine peace-talks.
Like the interview of SMC in mid-May:
“Q. What about IGAD efforts now in South Sudan?
A. For the South Sudan crisis the IGAD was also supported by the international community. In fact the agreement is ‘IGAD-plus agreement’. The IGAD on the one hand and on the other hand, the members of the international community including the TROIKA and a number of other countries were involved in bringing the government of South Sudan and the SPLA together in agreement. So on the ground there is an extensive understanding and cooperation between the IGAD and the international community” (SMC, 2017).
So even if it is a ceasefire now, the attacks and skirmishes still happens in different states. The situation is still dire and my faith in the National Dialogue isn’t there. As the IGAD-Plus Agreement haven’t been respected, by neither party. As the turmoil and crisis is in the matter of the current leadership. Both from the rebels and also from the central government.
With all this in mind, what will be President Museveni motives to make a work-plan for the mediation and implementation of the Arusha Accord. Will it be to generate a real peace or for the help of his friend in troubling time. With the knowledge of the connection between Ugandan Army and the SPLA, Museveni is more important to keep Kiir as an ally, than generate a real peace. The National Dialogue is flawed and it doesn’t help that you have a partial motivated leader like Museveni helping out. It is not to give the mediation any credibility. Since the weapon-brother and the ammunition supplier of the SPLA would not be sincere in wishing peace. He has made sure that President Kiir could battle his enemies and had enough bullets to silence them.
I never had faith in Museveni to deal with this, might the rest of the world do, but then they are naive and not thinking of the implications of selling guns and than discussing peace afterwards. It doesn’t seem to be real and fit. Like a beer producers are promoting careful drinking is insincere as they are in the business of trading the brew and not safety. Peace.
Dowden, Richard – ‘Israeli weapons ‘bound for rebels’ in southern Sudan: Arms may be destined for SPLA fight against Khartoum’ (19.03.2017) link: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/israeli-weapons-bound-for-rebels-in-southern-sudan-arms-may-be-destined-for-spla-fight-against-1430077.html
The Sudanese Media Center (SMC) – ‘Interview: IGAD Special Envoy in Khartoum Lissane Yohannes’ (15.05.2017) link: http://smc.sd/en/interview-igad-special-envoy-khartoum-lissane-yohannes/
Dear Sir, His Excellency (H.E.) President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni!
Though I am surely not so dear to you, I am sure if you we’re ever to read one of my pieces. I would end up in Luzira or even Nalufenya, in a dungeon not seeing daylight before my mind was weaken and my thirst for liberty and justice was all over. That is what would be my ending, if you got your will. As many others who has questioned your rule and your power. They have lost their days and their lives, they have been detained and been tortured. This is something you know and done your orders. That is well-known.
So the last week has boggled me, how you at the time taking the Chairmanship of the East African Community, which goes between the Member States. Therefore, your place there after the Tanzanian President Joseph Pombe Magufuli isn’t shocking. What is more important, is the stages of your concern of the nations around you. How you suddenly want to invest your time and urges to change and give hope the republic’s around you.
That you travel on credit to London to talk on AMISOM and possible peace in Somalia, than later you travel to Tanzania and discuss the sanctions and say the EAC should be able to solve what is in-house, and today you are in South Sudan, giving advice on National Dialogue there. You are certainly occupied with other nations troubles.
In London, United Kingdom on the 12th May you said: “However, our strongly held view is that it is not enough to check Al-Shabaab. Somalia must heal completely and stand on its own feet. In our view, there are a number of bottlenecks that stop the complete healing of Somalia” (Museveni, 12.05.2017). In Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania on the 20th May you said: “Burundi is our member and no action should be taken against it without our input. Our house is our house” (Museveni, 20.05.2017). Today in Juba, South Sudan you said: “Within the party, speak frankly to each other. Reach decisions by voting or consensus. Raise issues by having regular meetings in the party. Insist on having meetings in party organs. Never use force. Violence should be a means of last resort” (Museveni, 22.05.2017).
That you suddenly are the grand peacemaker is weird, the man who done his thing civil-war and coup d’etat in Uganda, you have been involved in two wars inside the Democratic Republic of Congo, you ushered the rebellion and ruling party of Rwanda Patriotic Front/Army in Rwanda. You have sent your army without mandate into South Sudan. The other mandated forces has been operations against Lord Resistance Army in Central African Republic and the African Union Peacekeeping Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Also, being hired security agents without consent of parliament in the Equatorial Guinea. I am sure you have used them differently, like lately the UPDF helping mission for the SPLA in Bieh State in South Sudan in April 2017. So the use of army for your own gain and the foreign exchange is also well-known.
Therefore, that you suddenly speaks of peace, negotiations and of consensus, it must be a lingo you dislike. As you yourself want to get rid of opposition in Uganda and want only the one who agree with you. Therefore, that you advice President Salva Kiir Mayardit to talk consensus, while in Buyengo Sub-County on the 9th May you said: “I am tired of wars. I want you to vote for pro-NRM members of parliament like our party flag-bearer, Mr Moses Walyomu.” (…) “I don’t want to go back to the bush to fight again. Don’t send me people who will disagree with me in parliament. I fought in 1986 and I am tired.”(Kirunda, Nakato & Katabulawo, 2017). So it is not like you believe the words you said in Juba today, aye? It seems more like a ploy and pigment of imagination, since you need to say this to look wise for the world. But we know that this isn’t the real you, you don’t believe in consensus, you believe in your vision and doesn’t trust anyone else, but yourself.
That you speak of violence as last resort, what about all the tear-gas as the opposition? What about all the harassment of them? What about all the ones detained for their political affiliation? Than, I also have to ask, why did all of the innocent had to die in violence in November 2016 in Kasese? There are so many questions, you should also answer for detaining all the kids of suspects in the killing of AIGP Andrew Kaweesi? If you doesn’t want to resolve with violence, why is the Flying Squad and the UPDF so quick to spread fear every-time there is ballots and elections. Why did you send the fighter airplanes to fly over Kampala on the days after the Presidential Election in 2016? I ask these questions since you tell people not to use violence, but speaking frankly; which I am doing to you now.
So with your history of violence, your love of guns and militarized government. I have little or to be honest. No faith in your mediation. Mr. President you have no character of trying to make peace. You have only made war and stifled your opposition. Therefore, very few of your adversaries are still alive. Most of them is gone, as well as the UNLA mates are gone and others who has stood in you way.
President Museveni, a leader and Commander-in-Chief since 1986, what sort of history and guidance can you bring from you experience and reasoning inside the Ugandan Republic, to build bridges in Burundi and South Sudan? Other than, bring the Special Forces Command and blow the possible enemies to pieces, Mr. President is that avoiding violence? Or throw tear-gas at consultation meetings of Opposition parties, is that mediation and consensus, Mr. President?
I am just asking because this is your advice… your own advice to the fellow brother in South Sudan, Somalia and in Burundi. Kinda hard to follow where you reside and run the nation, aye?
The Writer of MinBane!
Kirunda, Abubaker; Nakato, Tausi & Katabulawo, Andrew – ‘I don’t want opposition in parliament, says President Museveni’ (09.05.2017) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/I-don-t-want-opposition-in-parliament–says-President-Museveni/688334-3919496-71atniz/index.html
“I have been allowed by President Salva Kiir to mediate the warring factions in South Sudan. I will use the IGAD monitoring report and work with the IGAD chairman, Ethiopias’ Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn to see that those who abuse the ceasefire are talked to,” the President said in a one to one meeting with Mr. Guterres at the sidelines of the International Conference on Somalia at Lancaster House in London” (Okello, 2017)
There are no possible good ending, even as the hyper-inflation marked with the Kenyan Central Bank (KCB) leaving South Sudan. The longstanding conflict and the ruin it has created, the million refugees, hundred thousands in refugee settlements and land in Northern Uganda. Therefore, the Ugandan Republic and the National Resistance Movement are involved in the conflict, even if they doesn’t have brigades on the ground.
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has sent in the past Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF) to sort out the issues of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army (SPLM/A). These was known and done without any international acceptance and made sure to stop the rebels under the leadership of Dr. Riek Machar and the Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army In-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO).
There been reports during this year that the UPDF have helped out with arms export to the SPLA and also helping with operations in Aboko and Bieh State to get technical assistance and also made sure they could use chemical warfare in state. This happen in mid-April 2017, not so long ago. The UPDF involvement is in clear violation and also supporting the government in war-crimes. This have been again paid secret agreements between President Kiir and President Museveni.
That these too men knows each other and has traded is well-known. President Museveni has been helping the cause of SPLM/A for so long, therefore, for some of us it was special when President Omar Al-Bashir showed up last May 2016 at his inauguration. Because President Bashir knows that Museveni helped the SPLM/A and has done for long while. This because President Museveni wants influence and also earn on arms export to the Republic.
With this knowledge, that he is partial and collaborating closely with the Kiir Government and SPLM/A. How will he impartial and be able to fix the amends, try to mediate and understand all the rebellions in South Sudan? The biggest is still SPLM/A-IO, but the others National Salvation Front (NSF) and National Democratic Movement (NDM) has been established during the recent year. There are others as well, both leaders leaving the SPLM/A-IO and SPLM/A. Therefore, the status and complex context are evident.
There illicit crimes appearing as civilians are fleeing, the man-made famine and loss of lives. The lacking structures and trust in the central government, combined with more guns and bullets, than healthy chickens. Therefore, this is land of warlords and not of peacemakers. The land where it easier to pick up the rifle, than discussing the issues and negotiations. The latest deal went down the drain in a massive attack on Juba and a fleeing Dr. Riek Machar to Democratic Republic of Congo, and later in exile in South Africa. There is also a base and important station of SPLM/A-IO in Nairobi, Kenya. As the Kenyan are also involved in the UNMISS mission in South Sudan.
This complex and condition of the state are not only fragile, but hold in the hands of Kiir. President Kiir who is known for getting help and buying support by President Museveni and his UPDF. So why should someone who hands over guns and technical arms to SPLM/A try to negotiate with all of the partners in the crisis? The supplier of the government and trading partner suddenly become friendly to all of the actors inside South Sudan?
I don’t have faith in the motives or initiative from President Museveni, he will together with President Kiir. Find ways of getting the rebels inside corridors or inside valleys where he can blast them into oblivion. He will find the weakness of the enemies of the President Kiir and then use the tools to deceive and try to seem peaceful, but that will back-fire with golden attack that will destroy them. That is what Museveni has done in the past. He first talks, than finds it and than uses the positions to gain more control.
If the bilateral talks between United Nations Security General Antonio Guterres will certify President Museveni to do the peace talk. Than he is naive or trying to forge relations so he looks wise. Neither, has others, if they want Museveni to really help out. Museveni only helps out if he can earn, get money and huge profits on the crisis. He will also use the South Sudanese refugees as pawns to get more donor money to the government. Not really help them out, they are needed pawns for the failing economy in Uganda.
President Museveni shouldn’t be considered or play parts of the negotiation and peace-talks in South Sudan. He is already invested and has been invested in the SPLM/A agenda as he wants the loyalty of President Kiir. In the regard, the international community should look for someone like Kofi Annan or even Thabo Mbeki, to try their magic wand to fix the crisis. President Museveni isn’t fit or the right man. He is only the right man if we want President Salva Kiir Mayardit to be armed to his teeth and annihilate the rebels. Peace.
Okello, Dickens H. – ‘Museveni to Mediate South Sudan Conflict; Mobilises $2bn for Refugees’ (12.05.2017) link: https://www.chimpreports.com/museveni-to-mediate-south-sudan-conflict-mobilises-2bn-for-refugees/