MinBane

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Archive for the tag “United Nations Mission in South Sudan”

Museveni talks peace in South Sudan, but trains snipers for them simultaneously!

As a guarantor to the agreement, it is my hope that this is the last pact we are signing and that the respective parties are serious and they don’t use the ceasefire as a tactical instrument of preparing for war” Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (06.08.2016, Khartoum).

We know with time that President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has invested his army and sent battalions to help out the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) of South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF). This has been done in the past and also close to present day. This is a longstanding friendship between President Salva Kiir Mayardit, who has used the help from Uganda, when in need. Museveni have helped the South Sudanese rebels all the way back to Dr. John Garang, therefore, his involvement in the conflict there is ancient.

So, yesterdays leak of more involvement as the ceasefire and peace agreement made last week. There is also indication of specialized training of soldiers. They are training a thousand in Warrap state, also training snipers in Buliisa. This is happening as the peace agreement is signed. Not a sign of peace, but using the cease-fire as a tactical instrument, just as Museveni warned, but he accept that his weapon-brother Kiir does that.

Uganda’s former intelligence operative, James Moises, known for exposing some Uganda’s secret dealings in South Sudan’s conflict says his country is now deeply involved in a covert sniper training project in South Sudan and Uganda, claiming the project is designed to withstand any future military confrontation with rebel forces in Juba. “There is peace being conducted in Sudan while Uganda is training at least 1300 SPLA snipers to wage a war when Riek Machar return to Juba,” James explains. “Museveni sent his military men to Warrap State. They are now training 1000 snipers there,” he asserted. The former Ugandan spy further claims that more than 300 South Sudan’s government soldiers are also being trained as snipers in Western Uganda district of Buliisa. “There are at least 300 South Sudanese soldiers being trained as snipers here in Uganda. These soldiers are being trained in Buliisa district.” James said” (South Sudan News Agency – ‘Uganda trains South Sudan snipers as peace continues in Khartoum’ 08.08.2018, link: http://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2018/08/08/uganda-trains-south-sudan-snipers-as-peace-continues-in-khartoum/).

I was skeptical of the agreement and the lasting effect, as these people are war-lords, rebels and people who runs to their guns. They don’t really negotiate or even try to forge relationship. There been positive signs, but this sorts of reports.

On May 28th 2017 I wrote this and I stand by it:

With the knowledge of the connection between Ugandan Army and the SPLA, Museveni is more important to keep Kiir as an ally, than generate a real peace. The National Dialogue is flawed and it doesn’t help that you have a partial motivated leader like Museveni helping out. It is not to give the mediation any credibility. Since the weapon-brother and the ammunition supplier of the SPLA would not be sincere in wishing peace. He has made sure that President Kiir could battle his enemies and had enough bullets to silence them” (Minbane – ‘[The Arms supplier to SPLA] President Museveni are involved in developing a work-plan for peace in South Sudan!’ 28.05.2017, link: https://minbane.wordpress.com/2017/05/28/httpwp-mep1xtjg-4of-2/).

Therefore, what I wrote back then, is as right today. President Museveni is not only supplying possibly weapons to the SPLA/SSDF, but also delivering training for snipers. This shows how partial he is.

If someone is Kiir’s weapons brother, than Museveni is the first in-line. He continues to speak of peace, but waging war in private. Peace.

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South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) – Press Statement (06.08.2018)

Statement of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission on the Agreement on Outstanding issues of Governance in South Sudan (07.08.2018)

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – On the Signing of the Chapter I and II and Outstanding Issues of the Revitalized ARCISS in Khartoum (06.08.2018)

South Sudan: Will this Peace Agreement last?

A diplomat who says “yes” means “maybe”, a diplomat who says “maybe” means “no”, and a diplomat who says “no” is no diplomat.” Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

There been such a long road to this Peace Agreement in Khartoum today. Not like there haven’t been deals, drafts and negotiations, even postponed because the President Salva Kiir Mayardit found it more important to watch the World Cup in football. Therefore, this road to today wasn’t easy and the future will not easy either. Maybe, I am a bit of skeptical, but that is because the Opposition, the government and the rebel outfits haven’t been able to hold the latest agreements and cease-fires. There been lots of violations and continued skirmishes between the parties. Nevertheless, people are allowed to have hope. Because this civil-war need to stop, but wondering when and if this is the final agreement that fit all parties.

August 5, 2018 (KHARTOUM) – President Salva Kiir and key South Sudanese opposition leaders without exception have appended their signature on the agreements on governance on Sunday putting aside their concerns over the power-sharing and number of states. The South Sudan Opposition Alliance and the FDs surprisingly were among the signatories of the agreement on the outstanding issues on governance without reservations” (…) “In his speech at the signing ceremony, the Kenyan President Kenyatta praised the efforts done by President Omer al-Bashir to achieve the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2015 and now to facilitate and mediate talks to end the nearly five-year conflict in South Sudan. Further said he agreed with al-Bashir to keep the talks in Khartoum in order finalize the remaining issues which are mainly the implementation matrix of the peace agreement and the timetable for the return of the opposition leaders as well as the troops’ redeployment” (Sudan Tribune – ‘President Kiir, all opposition leaders sign governance agreement’ 05.08.2018).

What was really key in the agreement, is that the mechanisms and timetable for actually getting it in order, isn’t in this agreement. If this feels like the ARCISS of 17th August 2015, maybe because this gives everyone a slice of power and puts the levels of governance in. There is more hope. However, even as the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) was put into force and the SPLM/A-IO becoming parts of the Parliament and the Government, there was still people who willingly tried to get rid of them. Therefore, the levels of trust in that the SPLM/A-IG will act without interfering or trying to get rid of enemies. Is a hard bargain to believe in now.

The added South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – Former Detainees (SPLM-FDs), how they will play along with SPLM/A-IG and SPLM/A-IO wont be an easy treat. As the TGoNU will still be controlled by the President and have the majority. This is a President whose used of working and decreeing the orders. He will not be the man who humiliate himself.

I am not ready to celebrate this deal, as this deal is just securing a bloated government of many more public officials, more Members of Parliament and even more Cabinet Members. This is not the gift of peace, but making sure the rebels and government are getting along. That is something we have to see, as the pressers and the staged signings of agreements have been done dozens of times before, while when reality hits the republic. These people have quickly ordered their soldiers and armed personnel to attack each other. To get the upper-hand when the enemy is following the guidelines of the previous deals and agreements, even the newly minted cease-fire.

I will celebrate, when all the stakeholders are honoring the deals, when the CTSAMM and JMEC can report of violations in the coming days from either of the parties. That is why I am skeptical. Lets hope for difference this time, but if history has learned us anything. We people like to repeat ourselves and also go in circles, instead of moving forward. Peace.

South Sudan: Joint Press Statement by SSOA and SPLM-FDs (04.08.2018)

South Sudan: National Salvation Front Press Release (04.08.2018)

South Sudan: Intimidation of SSOA members by Sudan Security Personnel (04.08.2018)

South Sudan: Joint Press Statement by SSOA and SPLM-FDs (03.08.2018)

South Sudan Human Rights Commission (SHRC): Press Statement on Arbitrary Detention of Peter Biar Ajak and other Detainees (03.08.2018)

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