Brexit: A “No Deal” will have significant impact for the UK!

We cannot trample upon the humanity of others without devaluing our own. The Igbo, always practical, put it concretely in their proverb Onye ji onye n’ani ji onwe ya: “He who will hold another down in the mud must stay in the mud to keep him down.” Chinua Achebe

Today, the Tories dropped an short assessment of the implications of the “No Deal” Brexit. Which for many has been seen as a damaging affair. This is sort of report, that is dropped today. Isn’t scaremongering, but more a reality check to the ones whose thinking the “No Deal” is good idea.

I will quote significant parts of the report, like this: “Despite the Government’s efforts to prepare for a no deal, a no deal scenario would have a range of significant impacts for the UK”. I will come more to the significant impacts, as they are issued in the report, even as sleek as it is. Only 15 pages, but still has enough meat to hurt your hopes.

Like this: “This estimates that the UK economy would be 6.3-9% smaller in the long term in a no deal scenario (after around 15 years) than it otherwise would have been when compared with today’s arrangements, assuming no action is taken”. That is all a major hit on the economy, as you are shrinking nearly one tenth of the economy, if the worst estimates are hitting the economy.

Another part of hard hitting new realities is this: “In a no deal scenario, both the UK and EU would need to apply customs and excise rules and VAT to goods moving between the UK and EU, as they are currently applied to goods traded in the rest of the world. Every consignment would require a customs declaration, and so around 240,000 UK businesses that currently only trade with the EU would need to interact with customs processes for the first time, should they continue to trade with the EU”. This has been forewarned by plenty, even the likes of me, but not that it has mattered. Maybe, the buck has to get this close only a few days and weeks away. For many businesses and people struggling with movement. To recognize the costs and lack of protocol to deal with so.

Here is the impact on the food import: “One of the most visible ways in which the UK would be affected by delays in goods crossing the Channel is our food supply, 30% of which comes from the EU. Although our food supply is diverse, resilient, and sourced from a wide variety of countries, the potential disruption to trade across the Short Channel Crossings would lead to reduced availability and choice of products”. This means that vital parts of the imports and needed food are stopped, because the availability will go down. There might be shortages and even withheld, because the proper documentation and such is lacking. This should be a worry and show how this is hitting home. To make matters worse: “ In the absence of other action from Government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour could exacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario. As of February 2019, many businesses in the food supply industry are unprepared for a no deal scenario”. This doesn’t make it better. Only shows that the government haven’t done their job, preparing the industry or the importers who could have made sufficient preparation, as the government could have ensured this. Instead, the public is hit with higher prices and lack of certain food products.

For instance, the issues of Northern Ireland comes returning with fire and fury: “the cumulative impact from a ‘no deal’ scenario is expected to be more severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer. This is because of Northern Ireland’s unique circumstances, including in particular its geographical position as the only part of the UK with a land border with the EU, and the current lack of an Executive in Northern Ireland. The Government has been clear that it is committed to avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland in any scenario”. This shows, that the NI problem, the whole Good Friday Agreement would be played around with, as the Brexit will hit Northern Ireland. They are making hardships not only there, but for the ones across in the Irish Republic. That is what seems to be happening with the No Deal Brexit. Not only hit the economy of NI, but in general not following the promises made to that part of United Kingdom.

Seemingly done this silently: “Government has been accelerating its preparations for a no deal scenario since September, with a particular emphasis since December 2018. However, the short time remaining before 29 March 2019 does not allow Government to unilaterally mitigate the effects of no deal. Even where it can take unilateral action, the lack of preparation by businesses and individuals is likely to add to the disruption experienced in a no deal scenario”. Seems like they haven’t done enough or kept it low-key. The preparedness haven’t been there, if it had been, than the businesses would have been more prepared. They have clearly not kept everyone informed about their accelerating plans or assessment of a no deal.

For the ones saying the Brexit wouldn’t matter, wouldn’t cost or wouldn’t change things in a negative perspective. You were wrong. The realities of possible losses of fortunes should frighten anyone. The possible troubles of imports of foods and other vital items should also be a sign of what sort of self-created nightmare the UK have made for themselves.

The government are trying to say they are not having mud on themselves, while pushing the public into the mud. To repeat from the beginning, like the Igbo says: “He who will hold another down in the mud must stay in the mud to keep him down”.

Enough of the mud of a No Deal. Peace.

Reference:

HM Government – ‘Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019’ Published: 26.02.2019

Brexit: Luke Pollard MP letter to Plymouth – Breaking the Brexit Deadlock (25.02.2019)

UK finally lost the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius!

Sir Paul Gore-Booth, senior official at the Foreign Office, wrote to a diplomat in 1966: “We must surely be very tough about this. The object of the exercise is to get some rocks which will remain ours… There will be no indigenous population except seagulls…”” (BBC – ‘The Chagos Islands: A sordid tale’ 03.11.2000)

The Neo-Colonial Relic, the islands that departed unfairly in the 1960s, which the United Kingdom and its allies has made into a strategic military is now deemed illegal by the International Court of Justice.

That was about time, as the Republic of Mauritius is getting their territories back. This because the Her Majesties Government back in 1968 didn’t decolonize Mauritius properly. They clearly overstepped their boundaries and took the administrative role. As they ensured control and also made both Mauritius Nationals and Chagossian people into refugees and migrants. As they had to resettle elsewhere, because the United Kingdom took over the land.

Therefore, today’s legal judgement in the International Court Justice, have voted in favour of Mauritius and their claims to the islands, this means the United States and United Kingdom have to vacate or make arrangements directly with Mauritius, as they took the Archipelago without justification.

As it has stated today:

Is of the opinion that, having regard to international law, the process of decolonization of Mauritius was not lawfully completed when that country acceded to independence in 1968, following the separation of the Chagos Archipelago; Is of the opinion that the United Kingdom is under an obligation to bring to an end its administration of the Chagos Archipelago as rapidly as possible; Is of the opinion that all Member States are under an obligation to co-operate with the United Nations in order to complete the decolonization of Mauritius” (International Court Justice, 25.02.2019).

This shouldn’t be shock, as this have been written about a decade ago: “Two chapters in particular are world-class journalism, reaching the heights of Pilger’s old friend and mentor Martha Gellhorn. “Stealing a Nation” tells the shamefully under-reported story of how the British government ethnically cleansed thousands of its own citizens – a “crime against humanity”, according to the International Criminal Court. In secrecy, during the late 1960s and early 1970s, British governments “tricked, coerced and finally expelled the entire population” of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean, to give the principal island, Diego Garcia, a paradise, to the Americans for a military base”” (Johann Harri – ‘Freedom Next Time, by John Pilger’ 09.07.2006, Independent).

So, today, this wrong is hopefully ending. That the theft of the islands in favour of a military base is soon undone. As the International Community should care for what it takes away. The sins of the past, which has hurt the Mauritius Nationals and Chagossians there. They should be relieved and also patch their hurt. Since, the United Kingdom and United States of America has held the islands without rights.

Their imperialistic and neo-colonial behaviour has been the pre-text for these actions. Seemingly, done it without any fuzz. Now, they should move on and even back-pay for the damages done to archipelago there. Mauritius and their population deserves so. Peace.

Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May letter to the MPs: Soubry, Allen and Wollastone (21.02.2019)

Brexit: Joan Ryan MP resignation letter from Labour to join the Independent Group (19.02.2019)

Brexit: Joint statement on behalf of President Juncker and Prime Minister May (20.02.2019)

Brexit: Three Tories MPs Resignation letter to PM Theresa May to join the Independent Group (20.02.2019)

Opinion: Sketchy things about the Independent Group!

Well, the Brexit has new victims, they might be stars for today, as they were all pulling out of the Labour Party. As the 7 Members of Parliament. These are the MPs: Angela Smith, Chris Leslie, Chuka Umunna, Gavin Shuker, Luciana Berger, Mike Gapes and Ann Coffey. They are suddenly the TIG or Tigger.

What is very special about today, they are not a Political Party, they are registered company, which ensures them to shield their donors. They don’t have to publically reveal whose behind them. The website of the TIG is registered in Panama. The final straw is that the name Independent Group (IG) was already registered in August 2018. To top it off, the Headquarters of the group is registered in Manchester at the company address of Gemini A Limited, which accidentally registered to Gavin Shuker.

With this being said, this clearly a shift, as the 7 MPs has made a statement by pulling out of the Labour Party. They are now independents at the Parliament. Some Labour voters are calling for By-Elections, because they voted at Party lines and not just these figures. Who has decided to represent their constituents differently. They are doing it mere days ahead of the D-Day concerning Brexit.

This is clearly a staged and planned manoeuvrer. As they had the registration and was prepared to launch. Who knows for what reason, they waited to do so for months, but surely their backers or the ones behind the scenes. Gave them a GO sign and out into the wilderness they went.

This has put a dent in the strength of the Opposition, as this is another dent in the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. Who in the midst of many storms, have been able to pull through. However, now, there are even more people bailing on him. However, these people might loose steam fast. As the revelations of the TIG isn’t that positive in itself.

These people will be lonely in the sea soon. They don’t have the machinery, they will be questioned and not be as vital as they were. They were part of a big opposition party and now they are part of a independent group, which has marginal vote in Parliament and in general. They have to build and renew themselves. While also proving their worth and be transparent. As the sketchy details of the registration, as it is combined is really weird. It is not trustworthy.

It seems like a leaf in the wind, without any clear direction or even measures of what they want to achieve. Unless, it was only to humiliate the Labour Party for a hot minute. That they achieved, but was it worth it. Risking your career for doing that? Then, you could have just asked for a vote of confidence internally and fixed the issues after. However, that was not enough for these MPs.

They have to be knights in shining armour, ready to go to battle and made legends about. The TIG seemingly seems like half-baked at best. Even their statement was proof of that.

If Chuca Umunna thinks he is becoming King this way. His wrong, he is the leader of the rebellion, but certainly not a victor. Just a man who has risked it all and will now answer more directly, as Umunna and the rest has to stand up on their own.

Let’s see how that goes. Cheerio. Peace.

Brexit: The Independent Group – Statement of Independence (18.02.2019)

Brexit: PM Theresa May letter to Tories MPs (16.02.2019)