NAIROBI, March 31, 2016—Kenya’s economy is projected to grow at 5.9% in 2016, recording an improvement over the 5.6% estimated for 2015, says a new World Bank Group economic report released today. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to improve further to 6% in 2017.
The Kenya Economic Update (KEU): Kazi ni Kazi: Informality Should Not Be Normal attributes the positive outlook to low oil prices, good agriculture performance, supportive monetary policy, and ongoing infrastructure investments. Kenya experienced strong economic performance in 2015, and has exceeded the average growth for Sub Saharan Africa countries consistently since 2009, the report adds.
The KEU reviews Kenya’s economic performance in the context of three global factors which have been discussed for some time, and are now in full force. These include: industrialized countries’ monetary policy adjustment; the end of the commodity price boom, and the rebalancing of Chinese economy. The report says that the interaction between these global factors with domestic policy and conditions will determine Kenya’s growth in the near term.
“The prevailing global conditions call for a more vigilant policy stance which is supportive of growth,” said Diarietou Gaye, World Bank Country Director for Kenya
According to the report, Kenya’s economy remains vulnerable to domestic risks that could moderate the growth prospects. These include: first, the possibility that investors could defer investment decisions until after the elections; second, that election related expenditure could result to a cut back in infrastructure spending, and third, security remains a threat, not just in Kenya but globally. Finally, changes in monetary policy in industrialized countries could trigger volatility in financial markets putting the currency under pressure.
The KEU, whose special focus is on jobs notes that Kenya is creating more jobs now, but mainly in the informal sector. In the next ten years, nine million youth will enter the labor market, a majority will continue to find jobs in the informal sector, the report adds.
“Kenya is not short of jobs; it is short of high productivity jobs,” said Jane Kiringai, the Bank’s Senior Country Economist for Kenya and the lead author of the report. “To increase productivity of jobs in the informal sector, policy interventions could be geared towards increasing access to broad skills beyond formal education, creating linkages between formal and informal firms, and helping small scale firms enter local and global value chains.”
To create more and better jobs, it is also imperative to reduce the cost of doing business which is necessary for a robust private sector, the report adds.
Rainfall across Kenya has been light and erratic, but it is expected the March to May long rains will be fully established by early April and an ontime harvest is still likely. The long rains are forecast to be near average in cumulative amount, partially influenced by the ongoing El Niño.
Household food security is expected to improve slightly in most pastoral areas, starting in April, as the long rains restore pasture and water resources. Households are migrating their livestock back to homesteads at this time, resulting in increased household milk consumption and providing income from the sale of livestock products. Despite slight improvements in food security conditions, the majority of pastoral households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Household food security in marginal agricultural areas is likely to remain stable, supported by the previous aboveaverage short rains harvest. Agricultural wage labor is available at typical levels, with land preparation ongoing and dry planting in some areas. Most households will remain in None (IPC Phase 1) through at least June when the green harvest will be available.
Today the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission of Kenya (IEBC) answered the Opposition Party of Coalition of Reforms and Democracy (CORD), that has since January 2016 worked for an amendments of laws to sufficiently make the Electoral Reform and the Electoral Commission to become better and more righteous; as the amendments would set more standards and specify the laws as for instance only have one voters registers and so on. That seems legitimate concern for any political party, as that would set precedence for how you can count the actual voters and hereby have certainty of the amount of voters for each polling station. That is just one example of the amendments in the constitutional amendment that the CORD had facilitated and signatures. Here is the latest statement from CORD of the 26 March of 2016 and also today’s statement from the IEBC.
CORD Statement on the 26.03.2016:
“The allegations set out in the said statement are as bizarre as they could get. It is a clear manifestation that IEBC is a joke of a commission that does not comprehend the enormity of the constitutional responsibility bestowed on it. The cavalier manner in which IEBC continues to treat the critical manner of the Okoa Kenya popular initiative to amend the constitution goes a long way to confirm our long held views that we will not go into another election with IEBC as currently constituted” (…)”At the core of this dispute, IEBC has not disclosed to anyone what register they used to verify the Okoa Kenya signatures. During the Supreme court petition in 2013, the commission had a characture of five different sets of registers which were ingnonimously endorsed by the supreme court” (…)”There is no way a collection of 1.7 million signatures from all over the county can lack a few jokers and you can’t tear out those pages without affecting the integrity of the whole collection” (…)”It is interesting that in the week preceding the announcement by IEBC some of its commissioners called the leadership of Okoa Kenya to communicate that the initiative had met the threshold and they were in the process of preparing the transmission to county assemblies. Similarly senior commission officials made a similar announcement in an engagement with county leaders at a forum in Naivasha. This was a until their favorite Siamese twin that is Jubilee knocked on their door that they started shifting goal posts” (Magaya, 2016).
IEBC Statement on the 28.03.2016:
“The Independent Electoral and Boundaries (IEBC) would like to make it clear that it did not at any point verify the authenticity of signatures presented in support of the OKOA Kenya initiative. Any mark was admitted as an intention or consent by a petitioner. The Commission did not reject a single signature because of its structure or formation. The records that were rejected were those that were not found in the voters register. Some records had signatures but without ID or passport numbers while others had just names and no other entries. The claim that IEBC could not possibly verify signatures because it did not have a repository of samples is true. It is therefore needless to belabor or fault IEBC on this matter and we could not ridicule ourselves to that extent”.
That CORD has gone the extent of the exercise of Democratic values went along to follow the constitution to get the signatures from a great amount of people that is needed for this to get through to Parliament and then voted by the Members of Parliament there through the significant amount of votes to amend the constitution.
The IEBC would by all means not accept that as that would mean the ones selected to be in the board and leadership of it would be scrutinized and questioned even more by the citizens and political parties. As the institutions who facilitate and organize the elections and secure the tallying of the votes, would surely not accept to reformed when they are ensured to keep that state as long as they have the grace of the ruling regime and ruling party.
The Ruling regime and Ruling Party of Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP) have no interest of changing the constitution as long as that gives them an edge and structure that can secure the next election in 2017. That is the reason alone why they have no interest in this juncture to change it, if so it is to change public perception on the matter and the up-coming election, as the JAP and the President Kenyatta has had enough scandals lately.
The truth of the matter will come at a later point and this is certainly a political game from both angels and the IEBC is the scapegoat either for the JAP and the CORD. The Parties cannot be embedded directly with the Electoral Commission, if so then it’s ipso facto no democratic election to come. Than the IEBC will more directly announcing the result the JAP want or the President Kenyatta wishes, that is not a great look for the ruling regime or the IEBC; except that they are loyal to the regime running the country.
Certainly the reason from the IEBC is disregarding the collection of signatures; they are directly insulting and insinuating cheating of it. And it is with common sense the CORD is saying certain pages will be badly written and conducted as the public will act a fool sometimes. That is something that the IEBC should respect and maybe counter the pages of nonsense. Still not underscore the whole picture from the CORD on the Okoa Kenya and the amendment of the Kenyan Constitution.
The proof and the validity of the IEBC can be questioned by one simple question. Why should the organizer of elections have the power to disqualify the citizen’s questions of the constitution and also disregarding the signatures? Who really think that the commission that controls and instituted elections want to change it? Why would the men and woman who has a comfortable job make it harder? Why want the JAP change the laws when they help them to stay in power?
When you can answer those questions and have the results of them. Then you can see my reasoning for why the referendum on the Constitution of Kenya is not happening. Because the IEBC has no reason to change it, and the ruling regime has the same agenda. Except that the JAP also want to look decent for the citizens and the pundits. IEBC works on accord with the Parliament and the Government, so if the laws changes then they will work differently. The Opposition is right to question the IEBC and their technical and operational work for the elections held. But they should not easy dismiss the wishes to reform the work and electoral laws, as they might be insufficient and missing vital structure to procure viable and trustworthy elections. As long as the can be more than one voters register, you can one which is the one they use and which one is the official. That is something that the IEBC should not have issues with. As long as there are more than one list out, means that there are more possibility to fix the results wished at any given time, as the polling stations can have different amount of total voters depending on which list that the IEBC uses. That gives the them the opportunity to rig the election as they please, instead of having a unified and one single register of voters that can be checked after the announcement and preliminary results from each polling station. You smell me? Peace.
The tides are turning and the continuation of the matter on who gets the crude-oil pipeline through their countries from Hoima down the coast. The Ugandan delegates to Tanzania were treated as royalties as the delegation could bring tax-money and development for the Tanzanian government. While the Kenyan could take that away and they could see either their advantage or disadvantage towards the Port system of Tanga. That might be why CS Keter lost his passport and travel papers on Wednesday in Port of Tanga.
The only ones earning on this diplomatic matter is Ugandan, but the East African Community is creating a hostile environment between countries over a pipeline and the gaining the monies involved in the deal, the rates and construction of the pipeline.
What was said the day after the Passport and Travel Papers of CS Keter taken at Tanga Port:
“According to a source in the Presidency, Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed has tasked Kenya’s envoy to Tanzania Ali Chirau Mwakwere with getting to the bottom of the matter. “We want them to tell us what wrong they did as per the East African Protocol.” (…)“The two leaders agreed to meet after two weeks in Kampala to allow their technical officials to harmonise their presentations, focusing on: ensuring a least-cost option for a regional integrated pipeline, address constructability issues along all routes – existing and planned infrastructure, terrain and elevations. Assessing and confirming the current proven reserves which will have an impact on the size of the pipeline,” Keter and his Ugandan counterpart Irene Muloni jointly stated on March 21 following the State House meeting” (…)”It is in the process of assessing the, “viability of the Lamu, Mombasa and Tanga ports,” that Keter and the rest of his delegation encountered hostility”.
What is said today on the matter:
“State House Spokesman Manoah Esipisu told reporters in Nairobi that Tanzania was isolated deliberately because it had nothing to do with the issues on the agenda. “Monday meeting was bilateral. As you know we had also invited oil companies but they did not participate in the bilateral meeting,” he told journalists” (…)”Diplomatic sources said Kenya was planning to protest the apparent violation of the East African Community laws on free movement of people, even though Tanzania has argued it had no prior information the officials would be travelling to Tanga” (…)”As Mr Keter and his group were being barred from the Port, the Ugandan delegation led by Irene Muloni, the Energy Minister, were being shown a presentation on the advantages of routing the pipeline through Tanzania” (Mutambo, 2016).
More on the matter today:
“A senior State House official who did not want to be named because the matter was being handled at the Foreign Affairs ministry said the incident was “unfortunate” and that Kenya would protest to the Tanzanian government through its high commissioner in Dar es salaam. “I can confirm to you that the matter will be handled through our Foreign Affairs ministry. The incident was embarrassing,” the official said. He said the Tanzanian government was aware of the planned trip, which was part of an assessment of the three ports of Lamu, Mombasa and Tanga to check the suitability of the ports for Ugandan petroleum” (Kajilwa & Ng’etich, 2016),
It is hard to know what this can lead to, at least the Tanzanian diplomatic sources saying it was embarrassing to them, and to get knowledge of the Port Police actions in the Port of Tanga. When the Tanzanian Government person inside their State House says so, then their suddenly was not maliciously intent towards the Kenyan officials and diplomatic team on their soil. Though it will put a strain to the matter, as the actions speaks louder than words and to what extent certain people goes towards the advisories.
The Kenyan are right to ask for a sincere apology and reasoning for the hold-up, the passport and travel documents from the CS Keter and his team, while letting Ugandan Energy Minister Muloni walk around like proud-cock at the Port of Tanga.
This here is proof of the matter and how the governments are handling the matter and approaching each other. The Tanzanian Government should issue an sincere apology and the Kenyan should comply in a peaceful manner, as that is what they have asked for. Since this a big deal for both countries, as I have described again, and would be a long-term economic development project that would benefit more sectors than just the oil. Therefore we can see the growing rift for getting through their country and down to their port. I hope that Tanzanian government have sense and the same from the CS Keter as he was the victim, and have already gotten leverage, but that does not mean it gives a free-pass to the minister of Kenya. This will be something that will continue, into the final agreement between Uganda and the picked destination and the contracts between the Oil-Companies who will be drilling the oil in Lake Albert and the Albertine Region. Peace.
This is like out of a spy-novel. A novel that clearly is full of twists and turns as agreements and officials move back-and-fourth. Here is the first statement on the matter that has moved further from talks between the Kenyan and Ugandan Officials. Here it is:
“Tanzania authorities confiscated the passports of top Kenyan officials, including Energy CS Charles Keter, and denied them access to the port of Tanga but allowed a Ugandan delegation to proceed with the tour unmolested. The trip was part of their mission to unlock a deadlock between Kenya and Uganda over whether a proposed oil pipeline to export Uganda’s oil would pass through Kenya or Tanzania” (The Kericho Renaissance Network, 2016).
As one wrote:
“The Kenyan team had travelled to Tanga together with a Ugandan delegation involved in the crude oil pipeline discussions. The Ugandans were received very well while the Kenyan team was mistreated by the Tanzanian authorities” (Pauline Njorge, 2016).
This here is certainly a reaction to the proposed deal that was supposed to already be set between the Ugandan and Tanzanian during the 2015. Here is all of sudden reactions from the Tanzanian over the sudden change of guards and that the Ugandan Government does not fully turn to them. As the Agreement of last October was to be done and soon resume building in between the nations.
This here is certainly a blow on diplomatic matters and the distrust between Kenyan and Tanzanian diplomats, also the way “foreign” nationals seen as trespassing and henceforth detained, even prematurely and without “charge” is an insult between the Tanzanian Government and Police towards the Kenyan counterparts. It would been an insult if the Kenyan National Police was to detain a Tanzanian minister or official crossing over to Mombasa or any other port to look at the different scenario. Instead of honoring the fellow brother from another country in peaceful times; as the Kenyan and Tanzanian government does not have grudges or ill-feeling towards each other!
If this is the start of diplomatic struggles between Tanzania and Kenya, that might be true as this is visible attack on movement of foreign diplomatic officials and high-government officials, something the Police of Tanga Port have had to know since they released them quickly.
But the economic implications of a crude-oil pipeline is big for any country, first the economic benefit of jobs as it was estimated in Tanzania to employ 100k during the year to build the pipeline, also the rates for transporting the oil to the sea will bring steady revenue, something Tanzania is not wanting to miss out, neither does Kenya who wants the same, and both Kenya and Tanzania wants to be the economic and the powerhouse of East Africa. The deal of the crude-oil pipeline can generate lots of income and be a gentle push for more steady revenue, as tourism and exports are not crystal clear and always giving steady cash to the countries, as the coffee and tea prices are going up-and-down.
The matters remain and is in the hand of the Ugandans, as they are trying to find the suitors who fit their price and timelines, so they can benefit the most and will use all the tools and diplomatic leverage to gain the best contract and facilitation and neither Tanzania or Kenya want to be the one left behind. Peace.
There is the time and day where the President Museveni walks into Tanzania speaks to the new President Magefuli and promise more money for sustainable pipeline through Tanzania down to the coast. Later in the month he travels to Nairobi and meet President Kenyatta, and promises to ship the oil in pipelines through Kenya down to the Coast.
As both Big-Men do their bidding and promises quality lines in safe pastures with clean operations and good relationship between the countries and their businesses. While Tanzania was first in this time around, the Kenyan counterparts would not be worse.
The Ugandan Government have gone back-and-fourth promised Kenyan government before and made plans fitting the Kenyan perspective, so early in March after the general Election, the President met with President Magufuli seemed to be a grand deal, as the Tanzanian said they could start with building as early as August 2016 if the Ugandan Gov. was ready for it.
Now today it seemed as the Ugandan government have gone away from the Tanzanian agreement from early in month. As the Bunyoro oil fields will build pipelines from there down to Kenyan coast. A gentleman’s agreement between Uhuru and Yoweri, as they have worked together during election time, with funds and that President Museveni wants to give something back and show loyalty to the Kenyan President.
Tanzania and Uganda had even signed a framework agreement for the crude pipeline on the 12th of October in 2015. That seemed just to be a plan and not official document as the President of Uganda, seem now to be keen to repay his fellow mate in Kenya.
We never know is if this an reaction the EAC Inter-Burundian Dialogue of Peace between the Burundian stakeholders where President Museveni has lost his position as the opposition in Burundi claimed he was biased towards President Nkurunziza and wanted somebody else, as the African Union and EAC let former Tanzanian President Mpaka take the key role, as the mediation will be led by him, not the Ugandan President. That must sting a bit to man who wants to be the grand King of East Africa and overrule all estates and areas at all cost. That might be why they scrapped the agreement with Tanzania when it comes to the Pipeline.
This here will be proof of who wants to be the cadre for the monies that Ugandan President could bring and how far they will go to eat from his hands. As the President plays the field on both home-grounds and hope to gain the most for himself for as little as possible, while serving loyalty to the ones he picks. The partly agreement that was written during last quarter of 2015 seems too premature, as the joint statement today assume that the Kenyan government takes the last straw. Especially with the knowledge of the funding of President Museveni campaign parts of those funds to his war-chest came from the mountains of Kenya and not from Tanzania.
Because a man like President Museveni is more about his own will than the best for the oil or the best for the companies involved, because he want to be sure that the decision is benefitting him and his loyal cadres. Not anybody else, therefore he plays with Tanzanian and Kenyan officials until he gets the best deal for him, even if that strands the already made agreement with Tanzania, as the Kenyan suitors want to make sure that he gets the sugar and the tea he needs to sign a joint deal with them, even keep the Migingo island, as the money from pipeline can bring wealth and create jobs in Kenya, more than a few fishes and stones in the middle of lake. Peace.
This happens in the same time period that Gado the cartoonist at Daily Nation has been under fire for his cartoons of Kenyatta and later was finally sacked for a cartoon mocking President Museveni. So there were already issues between editorial freedom and the government control of media in Kenya under President Kenyatta, as this story will show.
Denis Galava the former editor Daily Nation who got fired for speaking up towards the President of Kenya Uhuru Kenyatta. This here is outtakes from his affidavit and is interesting as he was fired or sacked in the end of January 2016. The gaging of Kenyan Media comes to the surface and makes an impression!
Problems of November 2015:
“Earlier in November, the Editor-In-Chief called me to his office for what I presumed was a routine discussion on the investigation docket. We had lined up stories on Eurobond, Jubilie’s Mega Scandal, the death of the manufacturing sector and the collapse of the coffee sector. While not disagreeing with the merit of the stories, he said timing was tricky. For that the Aga Khan was scheduled to visit Kenya in December 2015 as a State guest and the presidency accused the Nation of malice for interesting scandals in government” (…)”Mr. Mshindi also asked me to ask popular Saturday Nation columnist David Ndii to stop writing about Eurobond and NYS Scandal because of his provocative analyses had angered the government and cost the company business. I out rejected the proposal, saying the columnist had struck in the letter and spirit contract of his contract and the reputational damage of us gauging him was not worth the risk” (…)”And the Editor-In-Chief, instead of defending our editorial independence, had chosen to gag us” (…)”My experience with the senior editors and we concluded that the Editor-In-Chief had privilege political sensitivities and personal biases over good journalism”.
How it all started:
“Completed the Editorial at 05:30pm and alerted the acting editor of Saturday Nation to revise it. He told me it was hard-hitting, but truthful. Since the paper was in the midst of a staffing crisis, I also took on a few other tasks that evening – editing the special reports section and ‘Page one’. I left shortly thereafter for the night” (…)”Woke up on Saturday morning to a social media fest over the editorial” (…)”Around midday, the Group Managing Editor (GME) Weekend editions called saying the editorial was hard hitting but objective. He received many calls, most compelling the Nation for finally speaking truth of power and a few from State House officials saying that the editorial was a declaration of war against the president”.
This continued with reactions from the State house:
“It also learnt that there had been a call from a senior State House official later that afternoon which was to be the first rumble the thunder in the brewing storm. The official asked why the Nation was ambushing the President in the New Year. He said the President was angered by the Editorial and intended to take it up with the Nation’s founder, the Aga Khan, who had been a state guest at the 12. December 2015, Jamhuri Day celebrations”.
State House Kenya
Calls on Sunday:
“the calls had become more frantic in tone. I learned from the GME Weekend Eric Obino that the Editor-in-Chief Tom Mshindi had called him from India saying the government had threatened serious sanctions over the editorial. That NGM board chairman Wilfred Kiboro and called and also written to the CEO Joe Muganda and Mr. Mshindi demanding immediate action to appease the government. Matters were complicated by the fact that for three years, the Nation board and the local Aga Khan network had been trying to reach out to State House in vain”.
On Monday:
“The Acting Saturday Nation editor Kariuki Waihenya and GME Weekend informants told me they had received emails from the editor in chief asking them to show cause why disciplinary action should not be taken against them over the publication of the editorial”
On Thursday – 5th January
“That morning, the HR director returned from leave for a conference call with the Editor-in-Chief, who was in India, and two Group Managing Editors for Weekend and daily editions (Mr. Obino and Mutuma Mathiu, respectively). After the discussion, the acting editor for Sunday Nation was given a first warning letter over the editorial, while his Sunday counterpart was also cautioned over the cartoon published on the January 3 that infuriated State House”
Later on the same day after picking up and taking his niece to school he got a call:
“the GME Weekend editions called asking me to join him at the responding to mounting fury, added to the prevailing bewilderment. According to his statement expressing the official position of the paper, I had not been suspended but rather advised to stay away for a few days”
On Friday – 6th January:
“the BBC interviewed Mr. Muganda over my suspension. Mr. Muganda said I been suspended for not following procedure in writing the editorial and went ahead to compare me to a bank teller who steal cash”.
On Thursday – 14th January:
“the HR Manager in charge of editorial Ms Jane Mkituri(Not sure) called me to invite me for a disciplinary hearing at 2pm on January 18. She also invited me to respond in writing to the issues raised in my suspension letter”.
On 18th January:
“In my response letter dated January 18, I protested that the procedures and guidelines referred to in the suspension letter were communicated to me for the first time in the suspension letter” (…)”While I had in the past either written or authorized editorials based on my judgement, the issue of procedure had never come up”.
Reaction to the letter:
“I was surprised to learn that two hours after submitting my response stating from there were no written procedures for editorial writing, the Editor-in-Chief issued – for the first time – comprehensive guidelines and timelines for writing editorials”.
On the disciplinary hearing:
“I was surprised that I had to defend myself to the very people who has accused me and suspended me unheard – the Editor-in-Chief, GME Weekend, HR Director and Company Secretary (Mr. Joseph Kinyua). I had expected a different, independent panel compromising at least one peer and individuals unrelated to the suspension the law states” (…)”The hearing turned out to be more of a dialogue of the deaf than even my initial cynicism anticipated” (…)”Every question started and ended with the word procedure, with an occasional dose of “disrespecting the presidency and endangering company business”. In 58 minutes, the duration of the hearing, I repeated 17 times that I not flouted procedure since, in actuality, there was no procedure to flout”.
The answer on the matter at the hearing:
“A panelist offered that he would be more cautious if he were in my shoes. Here I stood, he added, both having upset Kenya’s President and the Aga Khan, and risked the business of the paper, and yet here I also stood seeking justification rather than groveling for mercy”.
Continued part of the hearing:
“I explained that this section spoke of content and not procedure. None of the panelists cared to listen to me” (…)”Pushing the file I had given him aside, the Editor-In-Chief said I had hurt him, the tone of the editorial was disrespectful and it was risked the company business. The Company Secretary weighted in with similar comments, adding that this was the most disrespectful article on the presidency he had ever read and that I should be apologizing instead of defending the indefensible”.
Later on the 20th January:
“About 10am on Wednesday, January 20, the HR Director called and asked me to see him in the office at 4pm. He gave me the termination letter for “willful disobedience of the covenants and laid down process and procedures”. I protested this was unfair because in whole of my career at Nation”.
Together with the Gado sacking and this story of how the Editor-In-Chief dedicated the stories and silenced the newspaper and their columnist to fit the State House,is a worrying sign when we think about the up-coming elections in 2017.
That the media have to worry about writing articles to step on their toes and not be able to make stories that they can cover, as the President and his advisor will call the Nations Editor-In-Chief or CEO. As the State House want the investment from the Aga Khan and the State House want to look decent, and not have the story of corruption or scandals out! Peace.