A quick update of the problematic launch of the supposed verified Sim-Cards in Uganda!

Angry Pre-Registered Costumers outside the Airtel Office in Kampala

Today, as its been hours since the deadline of Sim-Card registrations in Uganda, there been reports than many who has registered and had followed the procedure of the Telecom Companies and the State, still got disconnected. The Republic and the Uganda Communication Commission and their employees is clearly overstepping their mandate. As their illegally disconnecting civilians of their communications outlet.

The cellphones that are registered and has done the following registrations should by all means, work like normal and just be in the registry. Since that, alas is not the case. The Ugandans should now march to the UCC building and also flog Minister Frank Tumwebaze who are in-charge of this mess. They are clearly been taken hostage of the exercise. Even the likes of Inspector General of Police Edward Kale Kayihura and his two phone lines is shut, also General Henry Tumukunde has lost his phone. This is clearly evidence that the UCC and Hon. Tumwebaze are incompetent in their works. Also, Lord Mayor of Kampala Erias Lukwago has gotten a silenced phone line.

If your MTN SIM card has been de-activated, please dial *197*3# and enter your National ID Number, followed by Given Name and Surname as they appear on your National ID. For Foreigners, please visit the nearest MTN service centre with your Passport or Refugee ID (issued by the Office of the Prime Minister) Please note: Your SIM card will only be re-activated after NIRA verification” (MTN, 20.05.2017).

There are news that some of the ones who are cut off, as mentioned yesterday the Mobile Money services would still temporarily work. There the subscribers are sending messages together with the money they still have left. As way of sending needed communications between each other. Still, there are millions of numbers and subscribers who wasn’t verified in time, neither had the capacity to be registered. Every Ugandan couldn’t travel to central offices of the NIRA or the Telecom Companies. Therefore, the loss of airtime and the phones. Show’s that the system wasn’t ready for it. Especially, when even central men in the NRM Regime we’re cut off. Opposition leaders was expected, as they are already heavy monitored and just luky for the government who wants to punish the ones not following the program.

There are many who got their NIN and got their verification of their numbers and registered on them. Still, the numbers has been switched off. This shows that the technology and the employees inside the UCC isn’t capable of the services they now has started. People are also worried about their data-bundles and airtime, that they haven’t been able to use before the deadlines even. There are so much money at stake and which has been invested into the Telecom Communication.

This exercise are really in the hand of NIRA, UCC and Hon. Frank Tumwebaze! They really have a lot to do and this tale is not yet over. There will be many subplot and the reasoning could be for getting more money into the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA), as the economy is in distress. Peace.

Hon. Tumwebaze clearly ‘beeping’ the citizens on the #Simregistration!

Hon Jacob Markson Oboth: “My wife has been trying to register for weeks but it is not successful. now having a wife who is not registered…” (In the Parliament of Uganda 18th May 2017).

There been two exercises done by the Ugandan authorities that has been hectic, it isn’t any by-election or polling. That is even worse than this, because the will of President Museveni has to honored and not the will of the ones throwing the ballots. Therefore, today’s proof of the ruthlessness of National Resistance Movement and their government. Are the decision to get the Sim-Cards of the citizens registered on the owners. So that the government can control and have oversight of who owns what number. Certainly for a government who already has the methods and known history of violating the privacy of the citizens with their interception technology. This has been done to the opposition leaders and their parties through the Chief of Military Intelligence at Mbuya hill, Kampala.

Well, this isn’t about how they have used FinFisher to track and monitor individuals that the state wants to control and get detained. This is about the general population and their cellphones suddenly has to not only get National Identification Card and Number (NIN) by National Identification and Registration Authority (NIRA) and follow the orders of Uganda Communication Commission (UCC). Therefore, when the Honorable Frank Tumwebaze has continued to push the registration, even as the first delay was to today, but the remarkable step was yesterday, the Parliament voted for a motion. That motion was to give up-to a year, but the Minister Tumwebaze had already made his mind. Take a look!

Yesterday’s Parliament’s Motion on the Registration:

The deadline was due to expire today. Winnie Kiiza, the Leader of Opposition, moved the motion to urge the government extend the validation exercise. The shadow attorney general, Wilfred Niwagaba, seconded the motion, pointing out that some Ugandans have yet to get their national IDs due to the inefficiency of the National Identification and Registration Authority (NIRA). Speaker Rebecca Kadaga concurred, ruling that the extension should take not more than a year. NIRA had earlier revealed that 15 million Sim cards have so far been validated, while more than one million have been rejected for submitting inconsistent data. Speaking to The Observer at their offices in Kololo yesterday, Michael Muganga, the NIRA assistant public relations officer, said Sim cards that were not verified either had wrong national identification numbers (NIN) or the names didn’t correspond with the NINs” (…) “However, according to NIRA’s Muganga, while telecommunication companies have submitted 18 million SIM cards for validation, the actual number of those validated is only 15 million. “We have issued around 15 million ID cards; so, if they have said 18 million, may be there are people who have multiple SIM cards,” Muganga said. According to UCC records, Uganda has got 22.8 million SIM cards, and many subscribers have got multiple SIM cards” (Lule, 2017).

MTN Addresses the Concerns of Costumers yesterday:

MTN added that “numbers that are not fully registered are on a soft suspension, from 8am to mid-day. Apologies for the inconvenience.” Experts said the suspension was one way MTN was driving awareness for registration, and also checking their systems ahead of the deadline which is midnight Friday. But many on twitter were outraged, demanding to know if regulations allowed MTN to do their tests before the deadline” (Uganda CrazyMedias, 2017).

Hon. Tumwebaze statement:

As a national security measure, government embarked on an exercise of ensuring that every SIM card of an individual gets validated and verified for purposes of ensuring secure and safer communications. For that matter, instructions were given to all telecom companies through the regulator, UCC to enforce the exercise. The same way banks embarked on their KYC (Know Your Customer) principle, same should apply to the telecom sector for SIM card holders” (…) “The deadline of 19th May set by government will be enforced at Midnight. This is therefore to confirm that the deadline stands and all unregistered, unverified and un-validated SIM cards will be switched off initially for voice communications. In other words the holders of those cards will not be able to receive or make calls” (…) “Another measure taken by government to ease the registration, verification and validation process for citizens as demanded by Parliament and citizens, is for NIRA to allow new ID applicants whose IDs are still pending processing to use their application form numbers. Once they get their IDs, with the National Identification Number (NINs) then they can re-submit online using the USSD code *197#” (Tumwebaze, 2017).

This here are a proof that there aren’t a synergy between the government, even between Parliamentarians, like the Minister Tumwebaze doesn’t even care or listen to the Motion that was voted in Parliament yesterday, the 18th May 2017. What should make you wonder is that the first deadlines seemed to be in mid-April – around the 20th April 2017. As one of the companies wrote online:

Hello Tangerians, To complete your SIM registration and avoid being disconnected, please WhatsApp your Tangerine number and a copy of your national ID to 0753333666, email registration@tangerine.co.ug or visit our offices before Thursday 20th April 2017” (Tangerine Uganda, April 18 2017).

But on the day 21st April 2017, the day after first deadline, the postpone was to the 19th May 2017. Than on the 18th May 2017, the Parliament passed a motion making it possible to extend up-to a year. Something that the Honorable Tumwebaze didn’t listen to or follow. Therefore, he in his station took the powers and overruled the Parliament, single-handed took charge and pushed through. This with the knowledge that many people will lack their phone coverage, even if only limited.

Minister of ICT and National Guidance Frank Tumwebaze has said the deadline for unverified SIM cards of 19 May will be effected at midnight. The deadline will only affect communication to enable mobile money customers to either withdraw their balances or transfer them to registered SIM cards” (NBS Television, 19.05.2017). So the Government, NIRA, UCC and the Telecom Companies have to silence many millions of Sim-cards. They are the ones who haven’t had the ability to get to NIRA to even get the National Identification Cards and the Numbers, which it contains (NIN). The National Identification Cards hasn’t been a smooth ride either for the Republic. So the need for this, is surely making it harder for villagers and the ones far from central towns. You can expect many in Northern Uganda, who will from tonight have phones that can only transfer mobile monies and not call.

This here isn’t only affecting the ones who has multiple Sim-Cards and hasn’t gotten them verified through the systems, the companies and the agencies who has to systematic it in their registry. If it wasn’t so, than this exercise would be unnecessary. Certainly, the ride has been bumpy and will not stop to be so. As even the wife of the Member of Parliament Oboth has to get registered today, as she wasn’t ready yesterday. There are many more who misses out and that isn’t cared for by Frank.

The State will leave a dozens behind, who has to scratch their monies and either find their ways to NIRA offices or the local government offices to get National Identification Card, even if they have that. They have to get to a Telecom provider who can offer help and from the up-country villages, that is a long ride and expensive one. So the city-life appears in the midst of villages, as they have to fix these issues. The millions missing will need support and will need help that the state should help with and not just use the Telecom to do their dirty works. Peace.

Reference:

Lule, Baker Battle – ‘Uganda: MPs Block SIM Card Registration Deadline’ (19.05.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201705190314.html

Tumwebaze, Frank – ‘Progress on the SIM card Validation/Verification exercise’ (19.05.2017)

Uganda CrazyMedias – ‘MTN prepares for SIM-Card deadline with ‘soft suspension’ (18.05.2017) link: http://www.uganda.crazymedias.com/uncategorized/mtn-prepares-for-sim-card-deadline-with-soft-suspension/

Opinion: Tired of NRM apologists defending the record of President Museveni!

It is depressing, it is sad and it tormenting to listen and read the defenses of National Resistance Movement. The defense of the 31 years of rule, the rule of the for life President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his cronies. The cronies and their 10th Parliament, the By-Elections that are rigged in favor of the NRM Regime. The government of Uganda is totally controlled by the one in-charge, the President and kingpin.

The Parliament are following orders and making amends to seem to be different. Therefore, the results of elections are more to just show overpower, but not to have real elections. As the NRM sends buses and pays of villages with small-fees and commodities. There aren’t anything fruitful or sincere by the regime. The ones who put dissidents in the Nalufenya prison. Where they will be beaten, tortured and get ill. As well, as in the overcrowded prison in Luzira. The organized silence of opposition, as their rallies are filled with tear-gas and police brutality. If not the ones who are feared by the NRM are put on treason charges and called terrorists.

President Museveni with his patronage, his bloated State House, the massive cabinet and the Presidential Advisors. There certainly enough ghosts, fake bills and misuse of state reserves to write books ten times thicker than the bible. We can know by the lost trillions of the Petroleum monies, as the “Presidential Handshake” is a drop in the ocean. As the UNRA and other agencies has misused the taxpayers monies. This happens with such ease and lacking finesse, but the agencies looking into graft and corruption is compromised, because the ones leading it are loyal Musevenist.

That the government and budgets are bloated. That the financial and economic state is in deep distress, as the state is suffering from lacking provisions and revenue. As well, as they are struggling with the stop of donor friendly relationships. People’s and Foreigners trust in the leadership of Museveni has been dwindling. President Museveni are also already prospecting the revenue of the oil and petroleum, even before it has surfaced. Therefore, the future will also be compromised by the deals done today.

The defenders of the NRM now, does not believe in real democracy, as they defending the rigging and militant Movement. A President who has no trouble with killing and destroying to stay in power. The ones defending him has no trouble to stand by a man who empties the treasury and state reserves with no hesitation. As well, as the men and woman who stays by the regime, are easily taking land and resources, they are eating of the plate and selling it back to the Ugandans. This with impunity and without any consideration of the ones who loses their chances.

It is a nation who has a government, not based on merit, but on loyalty. The loyalty to Museveni and his agenda. The agenda to work for him and his ideas. Not work to develop the nation, but develop the estate of Museveni. The idea of real Movement is ploy from the master himself. He just needs shadows to work for him and for envelopes. Not a real party who deliver policy or working for the future Republic. No the Movement is now a shell used pounce out the empty ideas of greed, nurture of the estates of Museveni and of the staging the power of the old-man with the hat!

President Museveni and his apologists knows all of this, they live by this and has faith that this is ideal and the dream. That someone comes with empty promises and lives by the fake party celebrating the 1986 coup. The coup that overruled the government and the old constitution, that President Museveni couldn’t pigeonhole. That has he done to his own and plans to do it again for his 8th Term.

The apologists can say he created safety, but he also created warfare and civil-war to get to power. Some called it a revolution, other calls it a takeover. But with time it wasn’t for the idea of a people’s government, but more a government and state built around the revolutionary, who didn’t really believe in the words he spoke.

The ones defending him, is defending a lie and that for the sake of eating. Not for the benefit of the Republic or the public. The struggling public is pawns, they are just needed props now and then for the Movement. As they praise their master, as they know if they get to close or too ambitious they are surely losing their place. Therefore, all of them are loyal cadres, elite and patrons who surely basks in the pasture of the President. But really, they should know it is on borrowed time. No-one knows how long the patronage and military can be serviced, how long they can all live on the charade and the misuse of power.

Certainly, the President knows this too, therefore, he uses all ways to make sure and get people on board. Even if that lets people starve, let them cheat on food reliefs and even use refugees as bailing-out card on the struggling economy. That is solely made of the patronage and grand-corruption orchestrated from the seat of the President at the Okello House. He can created all sorts of schemes and manufacture new ways of promoting better agriculture or better yields, but it is all ploys of generating more funds for his own. Not for the public to earn or get better output of the seeds and seedlings. If so, than the agricultural should be booming after 30 years in power.

However, the defense of this will be in the patronage and by the spokespersons appointed by the President. These ones will make a fuzz and say the Opposition never was a viable option and never had the leadership to overturn the Movement. The Movement has always been the only option, they say and use new ways of saying so. But that doesn’t make it true, as the rigging and the intimidation is used to forge this facade. The flawless untouched ballots doesn’t exists, there has been all sorts of play to get the will of the President.

President Museveni, even detain opposition, he uses safe-houses and some like Sam Mugumya are detained in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with no plan of getting him home. Him and others are lingering abroad as the political prisoner lingers in uncertainty. This is the legacy of the revolutionary, who became the draconian and the militarized government who uses all means to stay. He uses all methods on earth, Machiavellian and Orwellian blended in a Yellow Color with no fear of repression… no fear that the Movement can be touched, but when the moment appear. Than the Ugandans shouldn’t lose it, because they have already lost so much in the name of Museveni. Museveni has stolen the past and the present. His men has rewritten the history and tried to become the grand hero, and the generations from the rebellion is dwindling away. The young generation only knows the folklore and should beware, it is not all what it seems. The ghosts are not only in the budgets, but they are haunting the President from the past. They are the ones he stole to gain power and to silence the opposition. These souls will ask in the after-life, why he did what he did to them and also why he punished their grand-kids. Since they all lead the same faith. They all got to feel the pain, with no mercy from the leadership controlled by the President.

That is why there are no defending a man like Museveni. He has used all tricks, even was able to deceive the west for decades to pay for his decadence. Certainly, he must laugh about the dumb-white men and their agendas. His grin must be wide thinking of all the sorts of cars, airplanes and ranch expansions that are paid by the friends of direct-state aid. They have kept his roof and his ammunition, to oppress and to relief his patronage. Therefore, if someone is defending this man. Think of his track-record and all the souls he has left behind. Peace.

State House Supplementary Budget for FY 2017/2018 is practically a watered-down cocktail!

The original budget for the State House in Uganda in the budget year of 2017/2018 was the stunning Shs. 245.567 billion shillings. That should have been more than sufficient, even should cover for more than utilities and all the Presidential Advisors hired by the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Still, this week, they needed to add the bill and use more monies in the State House. The 245 billion shillings was not enough for one-year, they need more!

So in Parliament yesterday:

“Parliament’s budget committee has raised concern over the Shs 23.1 billion supplementary budget request from State House – less than two months to the end of 2016/2017” (Radiocity 97FM, 18.05.2017). That means that the State House plans to use Shs. 268,667 billion shillings. This now is for other than usual staff and for the bloated arrogance of a state organization like the Entebbe State House. Certainly, Presidential Spokesperson Don Wanyama and Director of Uganda Media Centre Ofwono Opondo will defend this. Since they are eating their envelopes from these budget posts.

However, the use of the supplementary budget should get under question, as the levels of futile spending should be under the loop and not just accepted. Just as the NBS Television reported: “State House asks for supplementary budget of UGX23bn; UGX365m for water bills i.e. at least UGX1m is spent on water bills day” (NBS Television, 17.05.2017).

That a county and a republic where most struggle to feed themselves, the President and his court has the audacity to spend Shs. 1 million a day! The ordinary Ugandans cannot nearly afford sugar that has hit the skyrocketed prices of Shs. 7,500 shillings; t. As their misuse of funds goes into the insane.

That the 30 years of ruling and the National Resistance Movement (NRM), proves that the old man with the hat, is too used to sponge of the state reserves and use it as his own pocket. The clear evident is in the budget and supplementary budget for the State House. Which entails all sort of ministerial works, which is ironic, in the sense that bloated cabinet should have ministries and agencies to fix the other outlaying issues and government work. Instead, it all is spend to through the roof of Entebbe State and the Okello House.

It surely must be genuine and special water in the faucets of the State House. Since the prices and the budget proves the massive spending on it. It must be the clearest and most luxurious water installation in the whole republic. Surely, the water is not bleak; it is like party coming into the taps. It must be so clean, that the WASH agents in other parts of Uganda, so they could wish they had it for the ones in need.

President Museveni, hope you enjoy your expensive water and do not buy any brew. Since the shs. 1 million water per day must really be the best! The smartest would be to tap, bottled and sold nationwide as Okello House water; therefore, you could spread the news about the fantastic State House water. This is why it cost so much. That is just one part of the puzzle, which is the meagre Shs. 365 million, the rest is Shs. 268 billion shillings. This is spend on all the other parts of the State House! That shows the disregard for state institutions, as one of the key beneficiary budget posts, are the State House, where the services comes directly from. Peace.

Parliamentary Report spells out that the Operation Wealth Creation (OWC) is a totally flawed initiative!

As the 10th Parliament and one of their committee has written a report on the Operation Wealth Creation (OWC), this one lead by the man who is named General Salim Selah. There has been seen to see fruitful results to the government sponsored projects, that is for the cash-crops and other agricultural outputs. But the report that is made today in Parliament isn’t really saying much positive about the initiatives. As this OWC that are part of the Office of Prime Minister Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, he surely will looked failed together with Gen. Selah.

It is clearly stating the OWC as failed initiative, as the delivery is flawed, it is done without information sharing, without local knowledge or input into how they want it. The leadership from the top has decided and gives the seeds and seedlings when they feel like it. Without any concern of the districts and their OWC administration, as they do not have facilities for the deliveries done by the OWC. Certainly, there are decisions made by OPM and the General without clear leadership, neither listening to the farmers they are supposed to help to enrich. Instead, they are more delivering sub-standard services and not working for others than the ones on the top. Just take a look!

OWC is coordinated by the Senior Presidential Advisor on Defense and Security. He heads the team of directors at the headquarters in charge of inputs, low cost housing, value addition, pensions among others, They coordinate all activities of the operation such as planning, evaluation, supervision, monitoring and evaluation” (Republic of Uganda, P: 2, 2017).

Operation Wealth Creation distributes inputs late. Because of this, people do not pick them especially seedlings and they go to waste. For example when the Committee undertook the field visit to Agago, Oyam and Nebbi, it was informed that the inputs had been delivered late in September/October and were also planted late. The crops planted could not withstand the long dry spell that run from late November till late March and ended up dying” (Republic of Uganda, P: 3, 2017).

Most of the suppliers of seeds and seedlings do not own nurseries. They buy from uncertified nursery operators and end up compromising the quality to meet demand” (Republic of Ugandan, P: 6, 2017).

Some people complained that OWC “dumps” agricultural inputs that are not required by the beneficiaries for example the people of Nakaseke complained that they are given too many mangoes and oranges yet they would prefer food crops like maize and beans instead” (Republic of Uganda, P: 7, 2017). “OWC uses the top bottom approach. People are not consulted before supplying therefore people are sometimes given what they do need for example people in Kubuku district complained that they were given the variety of mangoes that they not need” (Republic of Uganda, P: 7, 2017).

OWC supplies inputs without informing the district leadership making it difficult for them to plan how to store and distribute the inputs” (Republic of Uganda, P: 7, 2017). OWC does not monitor the performance of the inputs distributed. This leaves the programme without data on which it can base the supply of inputs in the future” (Republic of Uganda, P: 8, 2017).

If these quotes are not proving that the OWC is totally flawed, it is heavily run by the General Salim Selah and under the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, who are in-direct charge of the OWC. The OWC seems more like a fine slogan and signs, but the secretariat are not controlling or informing as it should. Neither is it listening to the ones that are supposed to benefit from it. Secondly, the programme doesn’t even monitor the results. Therefore, the results and the evidence of the having it is more on the feelings of Gen. Selah and the President Museveni. Not on the farmers who could instead have district boards on Co-Ops on Inputs. Instead of a centralized Museveni family controlled organization, that is clearly not doing what is supposed to do. It seems futile and not to be there for anyone else, then the ones appointed by the President and the companies they buy the seeds and seedlings from!

OWC isn’t for the farmers and for growing better yields, right now it is a non-transparent, top bottom leadership without any care for the districts who needs help and need government subsidized seeds and seedlings. If it doesn’t change… than the government can just pocket the monies, instead of just spending monies at the wrong time, for the wrong farmers and for the late season for growing the seeds. Peace.

Reference:

Republic of Uganda – ‘Report on the Sectoral Commission on Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries of the Implementation of the Operation Wealth Creation Programme in Uganda’ (May 2017)

IMF statement on Uganda’s current Economic framework has a “grey” list, but a steady core inflation!

The International Monetary funds have concluded yet another visit to Uganda. As todays statement and insights to the economy is dim. There is not much prospects or much goodness to take out of it. Unless, you are thinking to invest while the inflations are rising and hoping it does not stop. Even though the needless to say, it has been like this before after General Elections in Uganda. That the economy has suffered a blow and a shock, which has hurt the economy and food prices. Therefore, sparked demonstrations and uprisings, like that last big one in Walk to Work and Activist for Change in 2011. It is clearly on the same path, but just in 2017 instead. President Yoweri Museveni likes to repeat himself!

“Inflation has edged up, mainly reflecting the effects of the drought. Food price inflation rose from 5 percent year-on-year in September 2016 to 22 percent in April 2017. With this, headline inflation recorded 6.8 in April 2017. Core inflation stood at 4.9 percent, in line with the Bank of Uganda’s (BoU’s) 5 percent target” (IMF, 2017). These numbers are showing the decline and increase of common commodities, even if the Core Inflation is around the estimated level; the food prices are showing the problems in the economy in general.

“The authorities have made some progress on structural reforms. Two structural benchmarks have been met on time, three with delay, and the remaining five are pending. Most notably, the authorities moved forward the legislative agenda that will support Uganda’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force “grey” list—the laws now await President Museveni’s assent. The Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development published reconciled reports on the stock of outstanding arrears at end-June 2016 (3.2 percent of GDP). Pending reforms include sending the BoU Act Amendments to Parliament, publishing the report on end-December unpaid bills, and sending to cabinet a policy for regulating mobile money” (IMF, 2017). The GoU and President Museveni have not complied totally and made laws objectively transparent. Therefore, there are laws awaiting the approval and be requested to Parliament, as the state reserves and budgets are still enforced with the will of the President. In addition, a proof of the maladministration is the amount of budget arrears that was in last budget year, which will hit the economy, as the bills have to be paid this year.

“Uganda’s external position is broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies in 2016. The current account deficit is projected to temporarily increase over the next 5 years as infrastructure and oil sector investment ramp up further. Achieving the envisaged growth dividend of these investments is essential to maintaining external stability—just as for public debt sustainability. International reserves at end-December 2016 stood at US$3 billion (5¼ months of next year’s imports), above the adequacy level suggested by the IMF’s metric for credit-constrained economies. Going forward, the BoU can purchase reserves opportunistically and would meet the EAC convergence criterion of 4½ months of imports. The flexible exchange rate regime is serving Uganda well” (IMF, 2017). Therefore, the government and IMF envisions that the future prospects of oil monies will be sustainable for the current loans into infrastructure projects. It even envision it and with that will ensure external stability and trust into the economic climate of Uganda, that shows that the trust in future gains is the ones; that makes people have faith in the Ugandan economy.

This is all here proof in stated language that the IMF are looking through the budgets and their laws. Nevertheless, is not addressing the trillions shillings suddenly disappearing, neither the Presidential Handshake, as these are just figment of imagination for the foreign economic advisors. They just do not see it or does not want to see it. Peace.

Reference:

IMF – ‘Uganda: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2017 Article IV Consultation Mission and Discussions for the 8th Review under the Policy Support Instrument’ (16.05.2017) link: http://www.imf-fmi.africa-newsroom.com/press/uganda-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2017-article-iv-consultation-mission-and-discussions-for-the-8th-review-under-the-policy-support-instrument?lang=en

Opinion: President Museveni said “I am tired” and want to indirectly reinstate the Movement System!

It is just one of these days when the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni reveals that he wasn’t in favor of the Multi-Party Democracy, even if he claims to be elected and have credible elections abroad. It is always his vision and his perspective that matters, the others should just follow and listen to the high and mighty Musveni. No-one else has a vision like him and his party, which bow their knees, gets Presidential Handshakes and also kisses ring when they have too. That is something the Opposition MP’s doesn’t do, except for the “Good DPs” and the level-headed UPC MP’s. Still, he has something obvious to say today!

President Museveni addressing Bulago Primary School in Buyengo Sub-County in Jinja District:

I am tired of wars. I want you to vote for pro-NRM members of parliament like our party flag-bearer, Mr Moses Walyomu.” (…) “I don’t want to go back to the bush to fight again. Don’t send me people who will disagree with me in parliament. I fought in 1986 and I am tired.” (…) “He said people who are not of his party fear to discuss with him matters that are pertinent to the development of the country. And for that to be avoided, he will need Members of Parliament who share his ideals and vision for the country” (…) “He threatened that should Kagoma voters vote for an opposition candidate, their wish for good roads and other crucial utilities such as power will be no more”(Kirunda, Nakato & Katabulawo, 2017)

He is clear, if you disagree, that means war, not negotiations or discussions to find a level middle-ground. Since it is only one-man with a vision in Uganda, and that is the President. The Wonderful Dictator who is on his 7th Term, not 5th, even if he is rigged in 5 times in row. There was still a decade that gets shaved off in the calculation. I will write that until my ending. Since he deserves to count all years from 1986 and not only from 1995. While we are on that. Under President Museveni, there wasn’t always Multi-Party Democracy.

Three years after the Coup d’etat:

As already noted, the 1989 elections were held under strict anti-party rules since the NRM government had suspended all political party activities. Indeed, the Resistance Councils and Committees Elections Regulations, 1989, forbade all use of party symbols, sectarian appeals, and threats of force, the offer of food or drinks and the display of candidates’ posters. The absence of open campaigning made it impossible to discuss policies” (Bwana, 2009).

So as President Museveni forbade other parties and their political parties after taking power. He created together with the NRM/A a Movement System to control the local party politics and have structures that he could have oversight of from the State House. This was not a Multi-Party System. A special system that are now overturned into the Local Government system, still it is inherited by the RC system, that the party unleashed in the end of 1980s and tried for a long while. Explained by this Scottish student in 1993!

Importance of Movement System:

Two statutes, the Resistance Councils and Committees Statutes 9 (1987) and the Resistance Committees’ Judicial Power Statute 1 (1988), codified and expanded the system of local Resistance Committees that had sustained the NRA in its war against the second Obote regime. The genesis of the Resistance Committee system can be traced to the Mayumba Kumi (or ‘Ten Houses’) experiment of the UNLF in the early 1980s, which in turn was linked with the Tanzanian Ujamaa philosophy (Oloka-Onyango, 1989; Baringo, n.d.).” (…) “The RC statutes divided each of Uganda’s 34 (now 38) districts into 5 administrative zones; village (or ward in towns and cities), parish, sub-county, county and districts” (…) “The extent to which the RC system offers the levels of popular participation claimed by the NRM/A also requires consideration. The RC Electoral system operated in 1987, 1989 and 1992 of direct elections only at RC1 level means that the population is excluded at every stage from choosing candidates for higher office. This limitation on direct popular participation in the RC system recurs at a higher level where the links between RC4/RC5 and the NRC and government ministries become rather uncertain. By 1992, there existed no power of recall for members of the NRC beyond elections day itself” (Smith, 1993).

With all this in mind, the tiredness of having opposition. It seems that the President is ready to control the Parliament, the Local Government and have only local cadres that are his. The ones that he knows he can bribe and have under his structure. That means he wants to back to late 1980s and early 1990s when the Movement System and Resistance Councils were the thing. Where the Ministry of Local Government could fire a Resistance Councilor or others, if they didn’t follow the direct orders of the President and his State House. This seems real now.

This seems like the thing, as he wants to take away development and public service if they doesn’t follow his orders in the By-Election in the Jinja District. That proves the lack of democratic values and wish to honor the ballot. But hey, he has for 30 years rigged himself in and made sure his cadres has gotten positions, why else would Gen. Kahinda Otafiire still be a Minister? Not because of his brilliant intellect, but for his loyal assets and following orders of the President.

That President Museveni wants to have men and woman who listens to him and doesn’t challenge him. Therefore, he is telling in Jinja District, that he didn’t go to war in 1986 to have people questioning his rule. His legacy now will not be that he re-released the Multi-Party System, neither that he Constitution delivered a fresh start, as his lingering time in power. Proves that he has gone backwards and become alike the men he overthrew. There isn’t anything different between Dr. Milton Obote distrust in Institutions and Political Affiliations, the only difference is the names and the times. The misuse of army and police to harass the opposition is not different either. The use of government resource in elections are also facilitated for the Movement to counter the opposition. Therefore, the wonderful dictator is alike predecessors, only difference is his ability to overstay!

President Museveni is tired, because he cannot understand that people still question him. That people still doesn’t believe in his vision. That is because he forgot to deliver, he didn’t care to deliver and wanted all along to control it all from the Okello House. There wasn’t with prompt and glory that the Multi-Party Democracy became law, it was two elections and amendment of the constitution that the President didn’t want to deliver. President Museveni wanted it all inside the Movement and the Resistance Councils, which he could assess and control. So now he had to allow other people create their own parties, where they have their own guidelines and programs, not his! They doesn’t have his vision. That is so tiring for him. Therefore, he now want to return back in time, to the Movement System and the Resistance Councils.

He wants total control and he says it, because he is tired of men and woman who doesn’t accept his vision. The vision of looting, dismantling and disorienting the citizens for the wealth of the Museveni family. The rest is history, as the value of currency, the added state debt, the lacking of transparency and patronage is extensive. Therefore, he doesn’t want it question of his state and his system. It is all what he created and made over the decades as the supreme executive. Certainly, the glory days and the days of hope is gone. Just like the days stalwart Besigye would help the old-man creating the Resistance Councils as well. Peace.

Reference:

Bwana, Charles – ‘Voting Patterns in Uganda’s Elections: Could it be the end of the National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) domination in Uganda’s politics?’ (2009) – LES CAHIERS D’AFRIQUE DE L’ N° 41

Kirunda, Abubaker; Nakato, Tausi & Katabulawo, Andrew – ‘I don’t want opposition in parliament, says President Museveni’ (09.05.2017) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/I-don-t-want-opposition-in-parliament–says-President-Museveni/688334-3919496-71atniz/index.html

Smith, Justin McKenzi – ‘Breaking with the Past – A Consideration of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s National Resistance Movement, and of social and Political action in Uganda during its government’ (1993) University of Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom.

Ugandan economy could get Oil-Shocks due to external factors, recent BoU report claims!

Surprise, surprise the Bank of Uganda (BoU) has made a working paper on the possible consequences of the oil price, the oil exports and the oil imports on the Ugandan economy. This didn’t exceed my expectation of a report or paper, but said enough to clearly anticipate changes in the economy with the coming export. Even as the BoU called the domestic oil production in embryonic stages, which means the real impact will come when it is closer petroleum production the GDP and CPI feel more impact of the oil prices and the volumes exported from the Lake Albert Basin.

That the Ugandan State and the Republic of Uganda, should know that the fresh foreign exchange and currency into the economy, as the domestic parts of petroleum is not having big impact on the economy! Still, the export can change it as the oil prices and change the consumer price index for instance. Take a look!

One such shock that is a source of major concern and risks to monetary policy-making in Uganda is the oil shock. To our knowledge, the effects of oil shocks in Uganda, to date, have not yet been analyzed. The objective of this paper therefore, is to analyze the nature and importance of oil shocks to Uganda’s economy in a dynamic framework” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 4, 2017).

According to the Uganda’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (2012), oil provides about 10 percent of Uganda’s energy requirements – the rest is sourced from the small and underdeveloped and unreliable electricity sub-sector and the cheap biomass energy. The oil sector was also deregulated in 1994, under the broad structural reforms implemented by the Government of Uganda, which effectively eliminated oil prices subsidies. Uganda is endowed with commercially-viable oil reserves, but domestic oil production is in embryonic stages. Consequently, all of the oil-energy needs of the country are satisfied by imports” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 8, 2017).

The results of the variance decomposition in regard to oil shock are not entirely unexpected, given the structure of Uganda’s economy. Oil and its products constitute 8 percent of total intermediate consumption and 10 percent of energy requirements. In addition, oil is crucial to electricity supply in Uganda because hydro-electricity is unreliable and insufficient. This implies little or no substitutability of oil with hydro-electric energy in production in case of adverse oil shock, which could justify the long-run 20 percent variance in output due to oil shocks. Regarding consumer prices, the small percentage of variance in consumer prices due to oil shocks is justified by the small weight of oil in the CPI basket. Oil constitutes about 1 percent in the 2009/10 rebased CPI basket, of which 0.8 percent is oil for personal transportation and 0.2 percent a source of liquefied energy at home. These numbers are not surprising given that over 75 percent of the population live in rural areas and depend mainly on wood and charcoal as a source of energy, and that rates of car ownership are generally low. Moreover, the main source of short-run volatility in the Uganda CPI is weather-related factors affecting food prices. This leaves the bulk of fluctuations in the core consumer prices (Comprising over 80 percent) explained by demand” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 18, 2017).

Oil shocks are transmitted through the supply channel, as a shock that increases the international price of oil leads to opposite movements in real output and consumer prices in Uganda” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 19, 2017).

It is hard to say how it could impact and how the petroleum production and exports will change the economy, how the prices and the inflation, as the measure of how much the price of the crude-oil will be at the given time. That the government has secret agreements with oil companies and also agreements with other to build the crude-oil pipeline that goes to Tanzania. Therefore, the reaction in the economy is not yet known, but with the background and knowledge of the how it is now. Most likely a real output and change in consumer prices in Uganda.

That will be an oil-shock no-one can be prepared for. Unless the Government and Parliament created legislation and policies who might soften the change of the economy. Therefore, with this in mind, the National Resistance Movement, the State House and the President Museveni have work to do. That is if they consider the implication the petroleum production and exports will have on inflation, currency value and consumer prices index as well. This report should open some eyes into it, but it should not be surprising. Peace.

Reference:

Nyanzi, Sulaiman & Bwire, Thomas – ‘Working Paper No. 04/2017 – The Macroeconomic responses to Petro Shocks for Uganda’ (May, 2017)

Uganda: Circular No. 7/2017 – Donation by H.E. the President of Books Titled “Sowing the Mustard Seed” (02.05.2017)

Uganda: Executive Order on Dott Services and General Nile Company (21.04.2017)