On Andrew Mwenda and Corruption – how he has changed his mind over the years

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It’s been a long walk for Andrew Mwenda the former Political Editor of the Daily Monitor of Uganda. The former enemy of the regime, the man who got 15 counts against him in court at a set of time for writing against the NRM regime is today another man. He has changed with quotes leading in Chimp reports sadden me. At some point I had faith in the man as a Nobel journalist who fought a just cause. I will show from today and famous words from before to show and mirror the man and how he has fallen from grace. Here I will go back to the letters which shows his colors in black and white. While taking the stand against in one minute and later being for it. This here is about the reach from today and the past where he said differently.

With the reference to the quotes from today’s Chimp reports it shows how he has fallen from grace:

“With a budget of 24 trillion, I think stealing 500 billion is peanuts (it’s a theft rate of less than 2%) In the wider scheme of things, a 2% theft rate is really small. It means that you are utilizing 98% of the money correctly” (…) “May be the stolen 500B is what ensures a stable political order without which we would have civil war. It is hard to tell. The point is, even if you were right about the loss of 500B; you don’t know the other opportunity cost of not stealing it!”(Waswa, 2015).

That is what he said today, but a few years ago when he went independent from the Daily Monitor. On the departure and resignation on the 16th August 2007 the memorable quotes on the same issues is this:

“The major shareholder is given more investment deals in Uganda. I am a citizen of Uganda, not a mercenary. I therefore cannot betray the future of my country in order to retain the privilege of working or writing for Monitor. The future of Uganda is more than anything that money can buy” (…) “Because Monitor has succumbed to bribes and intimidation from the state, it is no longer the institution I was once proud to serve. It has lost its soul. It has betrayed its readers and listeners. It has betrayed Uganda. It has betrayed Africa. It has betrayed the cause of liberty and freedom. It has betrayed humankind. I cannot be an accomplice to this death of a dream whether because of state intimidation or of sweet heart business deals between the chief of state and the major shareholder. To do so would be identical to the action of Judas Iscariot who betrayed Jesus for 30 pieces of silver” (Mwenda, 2007).

In 2008 letter for late payment for “advertisement” in his publication:

“This is to request you to pay Independence Publication Limited (IPL) US$ 200,000 (two hundred thousand United States dollars) only for adverts in the Independent newsmagazine for the government of Rwanda for the year 2008” (Mwenda, 2008).

In 2010 Mwenda continued the stride against corruption:

“the country needs to implement drastic reforms in order to bring its fiscal house in order and promote development using its own resources—starting with a more efficient and enforced system of taxation” (…) “tax collection by the Uganda Revenue Authority amounts to about 12 percent of GDP—well below the sub-Saharan African average of 18–20 percent and far from the government’s target of 24 percent” (…) “Uganda does not need more foreign aid” (…) “Rather, it needs to improve its tax administration by investing in better staff and motivating them with better pay and better facilities” (Probe International, 2010).

How Mwenda got paid from the Government of Rwanda:

As capital, Mwenda was advanced $1 million from state consolidated fund termed as classified to start this magazine, then to help fight President Museveni’s Government that Kagame was not happy with” (…) “Mwenda who is on a monthly basis paid $200,000 from state coffers, for his rebuts and propaganda against Kagame’s critics and in defence of the dictator has no shame to compare Kigali roads and streets to Dubai, London and New York, forgetting that these roads are not more than 2 years old, compared to those that have stood a lifespan of more than 100 years” (Gasasira, 2013).

In January 2015 he even wrote this at his own leader in the Independent:

“Corruption is debated in mainstream media as a criminal act whose primary objective is to enrich individuals involved in it. Although it manifests itself this way, this is a residual part of the problem. The real issue about corruption in Uganda is that it is the essence of how political power in the country is organised, exercised, allocated, distributed and reproduced. Corruption is actually our system of government” (…) “President Yoweri Museveni’s greatest triumph has been to organise corruption on a broad-based scale. By expanding cabinet, the number of presidential advisors, increasing the number of districts, creating many commissions and autonomous government agencies and by establishing many security outfits, he has created highly diversified centers for corruption. Even the opposition has districts where they can goad themselves. Where in other nations corruption has been explosive, in Uganda it has been integrative” (Mwenda, 2015).

When you look through his quotes and what he has taken a stand for corruption in the past. And how he accepted certain pay-offs from Rwanda in the beginning of the Independent Magazine as early as 2008. While has had issues with barking at the government of Uganda. This is sadly ironic for this public character and writer that all people who knows Uganda, knows about. Therefore when the colors are off, you know see who he really has become.

So when you see how that money is making him blind on Rwanda and their issues. It is understandable why he will be a strong supporter of the third term in Rwanda. I am sure we will see more of that in the near future. But this here is about corruption and shows how he is not committed to it when it comes to Republic of Rwanda.

Secondly he has from the times of 2007 to 2015, shows the changes and how he has become something else then the man he wanted to be in 2007. If he really wanted to be that man with integrity and honor. He has now lost his marbles in the recent year or tired of being a true renegade against injustice in Uganda. Since he all of a sudden is fan of corruption and believes that generate actual growth. This in a country that has more and more debt, more and more local counties and ministers which cost more money, while it isn’t generating more tax money. That does not make sense Mr. Mwenda? Does it? Your supposed to an enlighten man, but your arguments today beats by your own old words. I am not sure if he is now positive since he claim that the government of Uganda is integrated with Corruption (which he said in January this year) then now in August he claims that it’s okay steal 500bn shillings when the budget is as much as 25 trillion shillings. Because it’s peanuts, it’s a saying that he now can think about: Respect is hard to earn and easy to lose. Something he has done now. With actually proclaiming for the world it’s okay to take 500bn from the state-coffers to their own gain then actually making something decent for their country.

Mr. Mwenda I am sorry whatever reason you can say that thieving is a good thing is wrong. It’s like tomorrow you will claim killing and the plague is great like Malthus is famous for saying: “Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague. In the country we should build our villages near stagnant pools, and particularly encourage settlements in all marshy and unwholesome situations. But above all, we should reprobate specific remedies for ravaging diseases: and those benevolent, but much mistaken men, who have thought they were doing a service to mankind by projecting schemes for the total extirpation of particular disorders. If by these and similar means the annual mortality were increased … we might probably every one of us marry at the age of puberty and yet few be absolutely starved” (Marjie, 2009).

I am waiting for Mr. Mwenda to turn a blind eye to other issues in society. But today’s stupid comments on corruption are as mad as population control from the late Thomas Robert Malthus who lived 1766 – 1834. And Mr. Mwenda want to be seen as enlighten and educated TED talk’s kind of editor. With this kind of reasoning he is losing it. And I don’t know why, I am not sure if he knows why. He surely has become something else then the man who went away from a great position in the Daily Monitor to make his own workplace in the Independent Magazine in Uganda. Which is sad see if he has sold out totally, he will not be a crucial voice into the elections, which is coming in the 2016. He is surely not the man who needed a bail out in 12 August 2005 after being too critical on the KFM radio. That made the government angry so they actually turned off the radio transmitters for a week (Article 19, 2005).

So the man who has had issues with the government must has grown tired and wanted a decent day job instead of being a renegade watchdog with his own magazine. This has led to the quotes today which don’t fit the old reasoning of the same man. Mr. Mwenda, where did your mind go? And why did you change your mind? Peace.

Reference:

Article 19 – For Immediate Release – ‘Uganda: Sedition law must be abolished’ (26.09.2005). Link: https://www.article19.org/data/files/pdfs/press/uganda-sedition-law.pdf

Waswa, Sam – ‘Uganda Needs Corruption to Stimulate Economic Growth – Argues Mwenda’ (12.08.2015) link: http://chimpreports.com/uganda-needs-corruption-to-stimulate-economic-growth-argues-mwenda/

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Resignation’ (16.08.2007) – Letter sent to the Managing Director of Monitor Publication.

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Payment for advertisement’- Letter from Independent Publication Ltd to Ministry of Finance, Republic of Rwanda (10.03.2008).

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘the political value of corruption’ (10.01.2015) link: http://independent.co.ug/andrewmwenda/?p=298

Marjie, Bloy – ‘Thomas Malthus’ “Essay on Population”’ (09.08.2009) link: http://www.victorianweb.org/economics/essay.html

Gasasira, Sweden – ‘When Mwenda goofed with $200,000 cheque stolen from poor Rwandans in defence of Kagame dictatorship’ (11.01.2013) link: http://www.umuvugizi.com/?p=7465&lang=en

Probe International – ‘Rewarding corruption: World Bank gives more money to corruption-riddled Uganda’ (14.10.2010) Link: http://journal.probeinternational.org/2010/10/14/rewarding-corruption-world-bank-gives-more-money-to-corruption-riddled-uganda/

Earlier today in Padre, Acholi Sub-Region, the UPF tear-gassed the venue where Dr. Kizza Besigye had the preliminary election rally.

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There been reports of teargas and beating from the Police after the planned rally for the Dr. Kizza Besigye was supposed to happen today in Pader in Northern Uganda. It was reported that DPC Amuriat that took the microphone from the venue of the rally and after that the beatings and teargas starting to appear.

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Reports from the official FDC sources:

“Dr. Col. Kizza Besigye has been sprayed with poisonous pepper spray in Pader. Some of his supporter have been beaten, arrested and forced to leave the place where he was supposed to organize a rally for his presidential bid”.

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Power eats our big-men – The reason for why we need Presidential Term limits

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There is for some strange reason a big discussion on the matter. Since some countries have them, some don’t. It is not like every constitution should be written the same with the same accords. In my homeland for instance there is no limit on how long the Prime Minister can sit in power, but that that depends if the people of my country get tired of the PM or the party affiliated with the PM. In bigger countries like the US there is a limit of two terms and only once a President who has broken that rule, was during Second World War and that was Franklin D. Roosevelt. Who had three terms and is the only one well known.

I am sure that Greece would have seemed happy with more often change of leadership. So if they hadn’t sunk that deep with loans and debt. Then it wouldn’t matter how long a regime is in power, if it essentially good, but if it’s not. Then it would be healthy with changes, so that the government recharge and fix the issues of old.  That is for check and balance, also to stop cogging the machine with nepotism and local graft from local councils and smaller government entities.

Now that Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda and Burundi is following Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, Zimbabwe and Uganda. They have big-men who have been sitting for ages and continue to break a certain switch of leaders. Burundi has just been through a farce of a election that brought their President Pierre Nkurunziza to his third term. Paul Kagame in Rwanda is thinking the same. Paul Biya the President of Cameroon has ruled since 1982 and is still sitting comfortable. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has been the president of Equatorial Guinea has been in charge since 1979. Omar Al-Bashir in President of Sudan has been the chief since 1993. Robert Mugabe is the President of Zimbabawe is the big-men of the country since 1987. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni the President of Uganda has been the head honcho since 1986.

Have in mind Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Muammar Gadaffi in Libya. All of them had a hard fall during the Arab Spring. So during a short period of time these long times serving rulers was ousted by the public or militias in their countries. And those people mentioned that has been sitting since 1979 to now should have them in mind. They could be next.

Its reasons like this big-men why countries and constitutions, law and rule of laws should fix the longevity for the leaders of the countries. Even if some countries has benefited from leaders sitting long. There have been many who show other tales. That their starting and dealing with matters. Making sure that the countries are progressing, but the issue with all men, power can eat you and when it’s at your grasp you don’t want to leave it. The power corrupt and make sure your family eats and friends to. An leave the matters and supposed people your supposed to serve. That makes the basic issue of leaders who becomes the proof of states where there is “taxation without representation”. They goes from being heroes and big-men with legacy into Machiavellian and Orwellian monsters that swallows the governments, states and organizations. That evaporates and follows the pinpoints from the leaders, but not actual procedures or democratic values. Transparency does matters, checks and balance of information from the regimes dies down especially if it pokes at the government. Ethics of codes of conduct matters for the ruling party, but for the opposition is otherwise since they will be thrown into shackles and dungeons for standing up against the regimes.

There is a reason why media has to be strong against this leaders and big-men. Why term limits is a good thing? It’s because power corrupt and eat men. When you first get a spoon of the sweets they want the champagne and cocktails in the statehouses. While many of the big-men don’t strengthen the basic institutions and ministries of the countries they are in charge of. Instead they put more money into the security and armies, but not too strong because then they are worried that their general’s would make a coup d’etat, especially since some of them took power by the gun themselves. So they usually promise grand changes and grace periods where the institutions left soiling by former leaders. While they does certain things and necessary by them, if so only what needed and supported through aid or donor money they might do something more with this.

While these leaders also often toiled with multilateral organization that put strains on the economic freedoms and loans that funds the countries. The forced moves of liberate institutions instead of strengthen the powers of the nations. Free market thinking that has weakened the economies then making them stronger. So that they import more then they export. Produce simple raw material or farm products and import finished sophisticated products that give the budgets negatives for the countries and also a reason why the countries end up with loaning more money from the multilateral organization. Because of this the big-men make shady deals with international donor countries and producers that lead to more corruption. Their zealous and loyalist under-leaders get cuts and that happens as long as they follow the party lines. The sellers from abroad couldn’t care less because usually they get overpaid for the product and there wasn’t a fair process of the sale. So if there is a transparent overlook of the sale and ordering of the products to the country it wouldn’t have gotten a green light.

This thing grows and grows until it hit either the moon or the sun. The terms are what people looking at. Then you could have discussed and talked more directly about the countries that don’t have it. There isn’t like universal rules to how the constitutions should be and what countries should have in it. There is other ways around that countries has to follow the international agreements, resolutions, charters and convents they have to follow and make amendments to their existing laws. But that is whole other matter. The term limit question is more about the ethical place and trust in the big-men that is either elected or taken power on their own. And if you have issues with leaders taking power on their own, there is a slim chance of them actually caring about rule of law. Instead even if they say something they will turn against close to date of the final period of terms. Just like Yoweri Museveni did in Uganda, Pierre Nkurunziza did in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda and Joseph Kabila in Democratic Republic in Congo (DRC). They all did a turn-around in limited time right before the end of the official second term. So they could fix the laws and get an official third term.

We the people and the citizens care about our big-men and nations, about the institutions that are made to be around us and supposed to support us. As we want good leaders that actually lead and make changes, and structures to secure their people. Instead when their reign for so long that their stealing of wealth, lands and positions for loyalist can be vial and hurting the country, instead of reaching and making the place better. This could be less of a viable possibility if there were structures and codes into place that pushed leaders to leave behind a legacy and go off in grace instead of sitting into the man with a scythe coming and taking their souls to eternal rest.

If society fears that leaders will lead into nepotism, graft, corruption and other evils of long term stand still of leaders and philosophy. The journey that the political climate needs is sufficient tools to stand in rainy days and in glorious ones. Also proper training to lead the next generations into a secure place and leave a foundation that can bring something positive for the people and the nations as whole.

And it isn’t pure and true leadership if they aren’t coping with the ability of leaving the power. They know that and we the people know this. When that happens we see the issues translate into situations that nobody really wants to see. Like the failed Coup d’etat in Burundi in 2015 and the violence that has surged since. Then the failings of the ‘Walk to Work’ protest after the 2011 elections in Uganda. That only led to few fallen activists for the cause, but lead to now initial change. Also the reactions in the DRC after lawfully allowing it’s president a third term, this made people react and the #Telema uprising happened as a aftermath. This because the leaders don’t accept their reach and doesn’t step down in time, instead tries to sit until the chair is breaking. And in due time they will fall out of the chair, it’s just about how they will land and which legacy they want to leave behind.

I am Sure Honorable Mister Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe could have been a real gentleman and been in the league of freedom fighters who fought a just cause against oppression of a foreign power. He could have been seen as that if he stepped down in proper time and given security to the country. Instead he has let the economy run loose, people fleeing the country, rigging elections, letting special army and police trained by North Koreans go into villages before elections and spread fear amongst the citizens. If he had stopped before turning into a villain, he could have been seen as hero. Something that would been worthy actually of how he fought with the comrades against a far-away rulers to secure peaceful nationhood to Zimbabwe together with Joshua Nkomo. Today he will not only be remembered only for the Lancaster House Agreement! But for all of the other madness that has happen after.

The same will happen with these other leaders who might have done great things. And they have made a difference. They have made some kind of changes and progress in their countries. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda has made progress in Uganda. Even by sitting very-very long in the chair of power. After uncertainties of the 80s he has with the Movement system made the land peaceful and that has made gains in the aspect of food productions. Even with help of neighbors and the U.S. sent LRA on the run to C.A.R. where he is trying to get them again. Though with lingering into power it’s now taking a toll on the budgets, inflation levels, value of the currency and the enormous level of spending to local councils since there is new district every 5 years or so.

I could go on about every leader I have mentioned and what has happen because of their steadiness of power. How that effects and what that has led to in the countries that their leading, still. Similarities are still that the countries don’t earn much on having the same leaders reigning for many terms. Because the countries getting sucked into the system and patrons of the big-man instead of build functioning institutions and ministries to really developing the countries.

And let this be clear, I don’t want the systems of the West unto these countries that is not what I am implying. The simple thing I am pounding on is how it will be healthy for a nation to have leaders and their big-men for too long. I doubt if it is healthy. The same with MPS and Ministers, they all will eat too much and become fat, instead of serving the people. The same happens with the grand big-man; therefore the change of leadership is an essential feature to society and government.

Therefore what I am initially implying is that no matter what kind of society the human soul and body will be eaten by the power. That’s simple reason is that this is a universal issue, the location and countries could be a mayor in my town for the matter or the leader of European Union, the secondly it could be a president in South America or Asia. This is a phenomenon that is everywhere if the big-man has the possibility. Let me take a few more honorable mentions:

  • Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since 1994.
  • Saparmurat Atayevich Niyazov has been the president of Turkmenistan since 1985.
  • Nursultan Nazarbayev has been the president of Kazahstan since 1989.
  • Issas Afweki has been been the president of Eritrea since 1991.
  • Emomali Rahmon has been the president of Tajikistan since 1992.
  • Hun Sen has been the president of Cambodia since 1985.

So thanks for reading. Hope it was worth it and that this wasn’t as long as the tenure of certain big-men. Peace.

Bank of Uganda – Monetary Policy Statement for August 2015 (10.08.2015)

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Press Release (AMISOM): Induction training for new Uganda Police Officers comes to a close (10.08.2015)

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Reports: UPF keeps Lira-town under siege because of Dr. Kizza Besigye rally in town

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Reports from FDC: “The people of Lira have been besieged by the heavy police deployment meant to be used to keep them away from attending Dr. Kizza Besigye’s public rally scheduled for today. The wave is serious and the emperor is scared this time the people are saying we want our people”

According to  Francis Mwijukye:
“The RPC North Kyoga region Aruk Richard Maruk leads police men in all the streets of Lira municipality ahead of todays Dr. Besigyes rally. He is telling people to attend Dr. Besigyes rally on their own risk. That Besigye doesn’t respect the president of Uganda.”

According to Harold Kaija: “Patrols the streets ahead of Today’s rally. This is aimed at scaring away the people. Kigwa Leero”

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Dr. Kizza Besigye detained AGAIN! By the UPF in Kampala today

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3y49ocu4Jk

Is this democracy in action? No sir!  What it is you say? It is bullshit in action. I have written many times and addressed how the NRM regime reacts to their oppisistion. An today again Dr. Kizza Besigye gettting unlawful actions against him. He continues to be strong, while being unjustfully treated by Uganda Police Force. Which serves more as a party police for the NRM! Then doing what their initally supposed to be. Securing peace within the territory of the Government of Uganda. And with the continuation of detaining of oppisistion and the people who isn’t Museveni loyalists. Time to continue to the fight, but you can’t be a man who follows the situation and life of the oppisistion. Without feeling sorry for “the people’s president” Dr. Kizza Besigye! And the world should take notes of it, but seem like they only care when also Amama Mbabazi getting jail-time. Peace.

Uganda – NRM Electoral Commission Roadmap for Internal Party Elections (06.08.2015)

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Uganda’s Medium Term Debt Management Strategy for FY 2015/2015 – FY 2019/2020: What is it all about?

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Here you will see what strategies and plans the Government of Uganda has made for their loans and debts. This is about how the Government will deal with it and how it can be done. The numbers tell what they can expect if they pick the certain ways of dealing with it. It shows what can happen and the shock scenarios are important.

This should be seen as important to follow especially with the growing debt and the rates that come with that. Therefore it will be something that should be monitored. From the sustainability of the ratio according the GDP should be something that also brings fear. Especially since this will have general effect on how the general economy will be hit with the down payments and strain the basic budgets of the government. There its a viable thing that should be well known by people, because this will have big importance until FY 2019/2020

“The Uganda Vision 2040 aspires to transform Uganda into a modern and prosperous society within 30 years through provision of adequate infrastructure, development of agriculture, human resources and services sectors, enlargement of markets, strengthening of the private sector and through industrialization” (…) “Implementation of the Uganda 2040 Vision will require substantial resources that will partly be garnered through the domestic and international borrowing. To ensure that our debt remain sustainable, such borrowing has to be carried out through a properly formulated Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)” (MTDS, P: 4, 2015).

“The key aim for the MTDS2015 is to ascertain the cost and risk trade-off of financing the medium term fiscal deficit through borrowing while remaining mindful of our debt sustainability” (…) “To meet Government’s financing requirements at the minimum cost, subject to a prudent degree of risk; (ii) to ensure that the level of public debt remains sustainable, both in the medium and long term horizon while being mindful of future generations; and (iii) to promote the development of the domestic financial market (MTDS, P: 6, 2015).

Strategies:

  1. Traditional post debt relief approach of prioritizing concessional financing.
  2. A debut Euro-Bond: The Sovereign Bond Issuance which risks the cost and the trade-off of the International-Market and financing alternative.
  3. Non-Concessional borrowing and meeting with bilateral with commercial creditors negotiations.
  4. Reliance on Domestic-Financing establishing the cost and risk trade-offs, which risk less since it’s from the Domestic-Financial-Market.

(MTDS, P: 6-7, 2015).

Cost & Risk Debt Uganda

External Debt Stock:

From FY2006/2007 it was Domestic Debt and Outstanding(DoD) was US$1.47 billion. And in FY 2013/2014 had risen to US$4.3 billion (MTDS, P: 13, 2015).

External Debt Stock Uganda

Domestic Debt Stock:

Domestic Debt Stock

Refinancing:

External debt maturity for the ATM (Average Time for Maturity) was 18.9 Years. The plan is setting that the in 2.3 years will the ATM be 11.8 years.

Public Debt Maturity Profile under REFINANCING

Currencies:

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Aggregrate Medium Term Debt Strategy:

The outlook for the 5.3% in FY 2014/2015 and is looking to reach 5.8% in FY 2015/2016. The plan forward is to attain an average 6.3% for the fiscal framework (MTDS, P: 17, 2015).

Selected Medium Term P18

Government expenditure is on an average to be 20.9% of the GDP for the FY 2014/2015. In the 2015/2016 it is 21.7% of the GDP. The main expenditure for the budget is the infrastructure projects like the upgrading of Entebbe International Airport, Hydro Power projects and Albertine Regional Airport. The total cost for the projects is US$7.0 Billion. There is set to be 5% target for the inflation rate and the exchange rate is set for 12.1% in FY 2015/2016 and average for 2.4% the rest of the years for the medium term (MTDS P: 17-18).

Stylized Financing Instruments:

Two instruments:

i: International Development Association (IDA) has the interest 0.75% for the maturity of 38 years.

ii: African Development Fund (ADF) has the interest 0.75% with a maturity of 40 years.

iv: The concessional is with fixed rate loans with 23 years maturity and 6 year grace period. These terms comes from IDA-Blend, Kuwait Fund, Abu Dhabi Fund, UK-Export Credit Guarantee.

v: The fixed rate instrument on the Euro Bond which is priced on a ten-years US-Treasury interest rate.

vii: With Pure commercial loans is a instruments with a 7 years of maturity and with a 3 years grace period.

viii: One T-Bills is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 91 days, 181 days,  and 364 days.

ix: Four T-Bonds is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 2, 5, 10 and 15 years.

(MTDS, P: 18-21, 2015).

Stylized Financing Strategy P22

Four scenarios for the Market:

First Scenario: The first thing is possible currency depreciation – is that in the FY 2015/2016 can end up with 30% depreciation and will have to work to sustain that through to 2019/2020.

Second Scenario: A sharp off increase in domestic rates for 2015/2016 and at the Interest Rate will follow the baseline of the Foreign Currency.

Third Scenario: Domestic Interest Rate still set to be baseline assumption that we’re set. And that the denomination on the Foreign Currency following the instruments set for it.

Fourth Scenario: That the Decapitation of the UGX towards the US Dollar in the amount of 15%, that can lead to a shock in the domestic yield a curve for the 2015/2016.

(MTDS, P: 23, 2015).

Analysis of the strategies:

That the total debt-to-GDP from the current level of 28.6% by the end of June 2014, if the end of the time it might end up with 50% level by 2020. This is because of substantial projected increases the fiscal deficit. With the worst strategy the interest rate can go from 1.4% in June 2014 to become 4% in 2020 (MTDS, P: 24, 2015).

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Hope you have found it interesting and learn something of the Government of Uganda planning of dealing with their debt. And how they see the future for their economy. Then what kind of strategies and scenario’s that could appear and how they will appear together. The Financial Years that are ahead and how the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development thinks of their economy. Hope it give you something and also a little feeling about how the economy might progress.

Peace.

Reference:

Republic of Uganda/Directorate of Debt & Cash Management – Ministry of Financing, Planning & Economic Development: ‘Medium Term Debt  Management Strategy’ (MTDS): 2015/2016 -2019/2020 (April 2015).

Press Release: AMISOM takes note of allegations against its troops in Marka and remains committed to Adressing these charges (04.08.2015)

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