Opinion: Succession when talking about Mzee is nonsense!

“You do not lead by hitting people over the head — that’s assault, not leadership.”

Dwight D. Eisenhower

There is an ancient saying that you cannot teach old dogs new tricks, neither can you do with President who has been running a republic since 1986. Therefore, with this in mind, the new comic relief from the National Resistance Movement (NRM) is hard for me to take serious. Certainly, with the knowledge of all the men and possibly woman who could have become the leader of the party and the Executive of Uganda.

Still, in 2017, we are at the same crossroads, the same junction and nothing has changed. The partners and participants are practically the same, unless some new cronies and sugar-babies of the Movement comes into the mix. Perhaps, the most stunning fact is that old men like Gen. Otafiire steadily sink the world with his endless wisdom.

It is as if Museveni still is the Shepard and the Ugandan people is helpless sheep needing his guidance. The reality is that the belief that he can do something he has not done is pointless. The only card he has left is to destroy more kingdoms with force and kill more his opposition. If he had proved some sort of democratic figments in his in body, it has surely died with age. As his words are now more important than legislation.

The President handpicked elite and cronies, the suiters and the ones trying to eat while can. As they know not what will happen when their master stop breathing. The plans and the succession plans has not been official or even portrayed, there been rumors of Maj. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, those leaks turned into a besieged offices and depleted staff at Daily Monitor, back-in-the-day.

Still, if he is the viable candidate to takeover and the family dynasty that the President tries to create is hard to know. Since none in public can read the mind of the old man with the hat. So that the “news” that NRM Members of Parliament finally planned to talk about the succession seems far-fetched! Should it been done a decade or two ago, if it was a serious attempt?

He is on his unofficially seventh term as President and leader of the NRM. The founder and current leader of it. Not as he has given in without weapons in the past and instead of dialogue, he still sends Special Force Command or the Flying Squad to doze of possible enemies. Not as if it is an open discussion, more like a ruckus of who can get first to the brown envelopes and get the license to blead the state out of more funds.

Therefore, here I am, and not believing one single bit that President Museveni or the NRM NEC or any other parts of the NRM have the slightest care in mind to change him for somebody else. NRM and the NRM elite needs Museveni and his cronies, the crony system is there because of him. No question and no one with a clear mind would not see that. He gives and takes away as he sees fit. When he needs you he pays you and your extended family, but when your aspirations or goals to become bigger than him. Then you securing that you become a fringe candidate.

Museveni and his family, Museveni as his business partners does not need succession. The ones asking for it now will become renegade NRM MPs and could end up independent in the Parliament, as in the past when MPs has taken a stand towards the NRM NEC or the almighty himself. I doubt there will be change of guards, as there have not been for decades upon decades.

What we can be sure of is that President Museveni and President Mugabe are doing the same thing in their nations, holding the power without hesitation of what will happen when they leave and what sort of power vacuum that will be unleashed. What we do know is that the NRM will use all of their tricks and manipulation, all sort of writings and public display to make this sort thing normal. Peace.

Mystery piece: SPLM-IO secret of the General’s death!

Today’s resignation of Col. Nyarji Jermlili Roman, there is revelation of a weakness that can only benefit the rest of the rebels and the government troops itself. As a key sentence from Col. Nyarji Jermlili Roman that said:

“Finally, it is worth mentioning that, over three years, you intentionally failed to supply our forces in Equatoria with arms and the necessary logistical support, an act that endangered many of our men’s lives because their capacity to defend themselves was greatly affected, hence the death of Gen. Elias Lino Jada, and Gen. Martin Kenyi, among others” (Col. Nyarji Jermlili Roman, 11.03.2017).

Even reports in the mid-year last year showed that he was a powerful rebel and an important ally of the SPLM-IO rebellion towards the SPLM/A. This with the Dr. Lam Akol Ajawin with his own outfit National Democratic Movement (NDM) and the newly created by Lt. Gen. Thomas Cirilo Swaka with his National Salvation Front (NSF), who is now co-operating with Gen. Khalid Butros Bora of the South Sudanese Democratic Movement (SSDM).

So the SPLM/A has enough rebel outfits with military experience on their hands as the Japanese peacekeepers are leaving, but the greed of foreign workers paying $10,000 United States Dollars (USD) for visa in the South Sudan. That must be to get enough revenue to pay for the military operations and to battle the rebellions.

Certainly the SPLM-IO earns on the many more rebellions as the government forces has troubles to contain them alone, still the defeats of respected rebels like General Matin Kenyi, the General Staff of Training and seen as the leader of the Equatorians. Even in 2016 he was the ones who raided in Yumbe district in Uganda. So, the rebel was known also outside of South Sudan.

So this leader and rebel were important to the struggle of Dr. Riek Machar and SPLM-IO. The only proof of his death before was a little tweet by The Bell South Sudan, who wrote on the 14th August 2016 that he died in a battle in Lobonok and he died together with 14 more persons. Therefore, this today is the second message of his death, but since it is the Deputy Spokesperson of SPLM-IO.

The proof that SPLM-IO wanted it buried and not told is evident. As if died in August 2016 and it is now revealed, the SPLM-IO we’re afraid if more people wanted to leave and if the Equatorial states. Certainly the SPLA and the government can be proud of this moment, as the important generals and training officers is dying. Therefore, there is weakness in the SPLM-IO when they keeps silent of the death of central command.

The accountability by the rebels is not a good sign if they we’re to rule, they would just be other former warlords to rule the republic. As they cannot excel with information of the losses and then you cannot trust if they are really winning. Since their reports will be biased and less sincere as the withheld information is vital to their leadership, like the fall of the leader of Kenyi.

We can only wonder what sort of brigades that has been lost or vital positions, as the SPLM-IO want to seem stronger and wiser than they actually seem to be. SPLM/A are the winner in this one, even as the amount of rebels are rising on all fronts, and the wish for another less greedy and less corrupt Central Government. President Salva Kiir Mayardiit seen like a lost soul with the resignations and deflections, but with this he seems a bit stronger; since the SPLM-IO and Dr. Riek Machar cannot tell of their losses. It gets released with more people deserting from him as well, as SPLM/A has people creating their own outfits. The whole picture becomes more scattered as the famine and more issues approach.

Certainly, SPLM-IO has lost a vital and important General in Martin Kenyi, another reason for not telling about it and spelling out to the world about his fall. As his important position both locally and for training of soldiers must been seen as giant beating from SPLA. Therefore, President Kiir knows that his army has done something big in the late 2016 to weaken the rebels. Peace.

RI Report: The South Sudanese refugee influx on Northern Uganda and the strain of resources!

There is a massive surge of Refugees from South Sudan, as the crisis is prolonged, the influx of rebellion from the SPLM/A, and SPLM/A-IO, therefore the villagers and farmers will flee the war-torn republic. However, the Ugandan hospitality to these fleeing foreign citizens is more than what happens in the Western Hemisphere and Europe. Uganda has on average taken in 2,400 South Sudanese refugees. This has even created the largest refugee site in the world in Bidibidi on the borders to the Republic.

What this report show’s isn’t just the numbers of South Sudanese that has had to flee the republic, but also the challenges both the Ugandan Authorities, the UN Organizations together with NGOs are meeting. These isn’t small fries, this is the big bank and needed funds to secure the safety of these refugees. Even though the NGOs are struggling with the interference and authorities for their controlling efforts from the Office of Prime Minister and the Prime Minister Dr. Ruhakana Ruganda who has to be informed and accept the works from them.

Just take look!

The amount of Refugees in Uganda:

“Uganda currently faces the fastest-growing refugee crisis in the world. From July 2016 through January 2017, more than 512,000 South Sudanese refugees arrived in the country – an average of roughly 2,400 per day. This staggering rate of influx into one country, sustained over such a long period, has few precedents in recent years. As a consequence, Uganda has now become the top-ranking refugee- hosting country in Africa, with more than a million refugees in total. It also hosts what is likely the world’s largest refugee site, Bidibidi, with more than 270,000 residents” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 4, 2017).

Continued crisis in South Sudan:

“In short, there is no reason to believe that South Sudanese will be able to return home anytime soon, or that the influx of new arrivals will dissipate. Indeed, UNHCR currently projects that the number of South Sudanese refugees will increase from just over 600,000 today to 925,000 by the end of 2017” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 6, 2017).

Lacking shelter for the refugees:

“Humanitarians told RI that, per Ugandan refugee policy, refugees are expected to build their own shelters. This has the benefit of allowing refugees to design shelters that they want to live in, but it creates challenges when the shelter materials they need (such as lumber and grass) are in short supply, or when refugees physically cannot build their shelters or do not know how. Shelter kits and construction assistance for vulnerable refugees are insufficient and leave refugees – especially women and girls – at risk. For example, in Palorinya settlement, RI met an 18-year-old woman from Yei who came to Uganda alone after her grandmother went missing. RI accompanied her as she collected what she could of her shelter kit and transported it to her plot of land, where she had no instruction or assistance in assembling the shelter as dusk approached. She lamented to RI that she was likely to sleep in the open for an unforeseeable amount of time until she secured assistance” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 8, 2017).

Lacking funds and materials:

“Aid agencies reported that when core relief items were distributed, they nearly always included materials specific to women and girls’ needs – among them, dignity and maternity kits and hand-held solar lamps. Women interviewed did lament shortages of these materials but appreciated that such items were somewhat available, including at reception centers where refugees sometimes have to spend the night prior to transport to a settlement. In other words, it appears that funding shortages in Uganda did not lead to the prioritization of other relief materials at the expense of women’s dignity kits, as RI has unfortunately seen in many emergency situations. This recognition that women’s needs are as important as all others is fundamental to the Safe from the Start approach” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 11, 2017).

Ugandan Government:

“Another humanitarian explained that while Ugandan officials have not discussed “capping” arrivals from South Sudan, refugee fatigue remains a possibility, particularly at the local level. “In the beginning, as one district got an economic boost from the refugees, competition arose between the districts over who could receive more refugees,” the humanitarian said. “But the money for aid now is not what it was, and district governments are noticing this. Expectations are very high and may not be met. That could turn the tide.” This highlights the need for development support in refugee-hosting areas, which can be targeted at host populations in a way that refugee aid cannot” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 16, 2017). “According to multiple senior humanitarians with whom the RI team spoke, OPM exercises tight control over where NGOs can intervene and in which sectors they can work. NGOs are obliged to obtain permission from OPM in order to operate in refugee settlements. Further, OPM is a signatory to all partnership agreements between NGOs and UN agencies. Such measures are not unusual in refugee situations; however, humanitarians told RI that OPM personnel had used these measures as a means to interfere in decisions about partnerships and contracting. RI was told of multiple cases in which OPM personnel had requested that UN agencies or NGOs establish partnerships with specific national NGOs or contract with specific companies. Some humanitarians said that they had accepted this arrangement with resignation. “We do not have full control over our implementing partners, and there are some that we would not have picked otherwise,” one humanitarian said. “When the government disagrees with us, we lose … Everything becomes difficult at the institutional level if we put our foot down and try to say no to a partner.” Another humanitarian recounted that their aid agency had hired a private contractor after “so much pressure” from OPM staff, and that the contractor’s subsequent work was delayed and of poor quality, forcing the aid agency to take a loss. When humanitarians have resisted OPM’s entreaties, the government’s reaction has sometimes been unhelpful: RI was told of cases in which aid organizations were allegedly denied access to settlements after rejecting a contractor that OPM suggested, and of cases where OPM allegedly delayed approving projects for months because of disagreements over the choice of a contractor” (Boyce & Viguad-Walsh, P: 17-18, 2017).

Important recommendations:

“The Ugandan government should:

**Respect the competitive and transparent nature of partnership selection and contracting, and fully abide by ethical standards, including the provisions of Uganda’s Leadership Code Act;

  • • Ensure that any complaints pertaining to the management of the refugee response are fully investigated by the Inspectorate of Government and that any informers and witnesses are provided with appropriate protection; and
  • • Finalize the acceptance of the World Bank’s financing package in support of refugee-hosting areas.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and Uganda’s Office of the Prime Minister should:

  • • Prioritize partnership applications from specialized trauma counseling agencies; and
  • • Review procedures for identifying people with specific needs at border points to determine if they are in compliance with UNHCR’s Emergency Handbook guidance, and conduct refresher trainings for all personnel responsible for such identification” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 3, 2017).

There we’re many more things to take from this, but there are just enough one man can focus from a hard-hitting report like this. Like all actors and people has to change as these challenges isn’t something that comes easy, the levels of refugees and their experiences needs treatment, food and water, they need a fresh start and peace. That doesn’t come easy, as many of them wants to go home, but the civil war and uncertainty leaves them in a limbo in Uganda. The United Nations Organizations and Office of Prime Minister of Uganda can only go so far. What is also worrying is that the locals and Ugandans expected to earn trade on refugees, instead of seeing the volatile situation the refugees are in and the hostile environment they left. As the Ugandan Authorities sent their army before the last peace-agreement between SPLM/A and SPLM-IO.

The Refugee crisis in Northern Uganda is serious and shouldn’t be forgotten, the donations and spending from international society should be a priority as the expected amount of refugees might be up to as high as 1 million South Sudanese by the end of 2017. No country or state has the economy to facilitate that; even the United States cannot afford refugees right now. If you interpret their bans of Syrian refugees right now! While the Ugandan republic has the ability and capacity to host this massive amounts of refugees, with the hesitation of getting knowledge of all activity from the UN Organizations and NGOs in the Refugee camps and fields. Peace.

Reference:

Boyce, Michael & Vigaud-Walsh, Francisca – ‘GETTING IT RIGHT: PROTECTION OF SOUTH SUDANESE REFUGEES IN UGANDA’ (March 2017), Refugees International – Field Report

Opinion: Does Dr. Abed Bwanika, Maj. Gen. Benon Biraaro or Elton John Mabirizi have a voice after the election?

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I have just wondered and continue to wonder if these three brothers really have standing and place of political platform to gain momentum at all after the General Election of 2016. These both are veterans and people who have tried more times to be elected as the President of Uganda, without succeeding for that matter. Not because of their words or anything, because like for the rest of the candidates the Electoral Commission has been rigged for President Museveni, to be re-elected for another yet again!

Dr. Abed Bwanika, is a character and a man of words, a man who doesn’t fear to speak his mind and opinion. That is what it seems. The man of the People Development Party (PDP), an opposition politician who has been claimed by Tamale Mirundi of being a NRM diehard; so the man who has lost land in Lwengo are still in cahoots with the ruling regime if the AK-Mouth Mirundi is true to his words. Bwanika usually only appears like every blue moon, but after the recent election has been more visible, tried to talk of dialogue between FDC and NRM. Still, the evident wish of concluding that seems far-fetched. A person can wonder why he cares and what are his motives?

Than you have Maj. Gen. Benon Biraaro, the Farmers Party Presidential Candidate who was a man of reason within the general election and campaign. That even after the house arrest of Dr. Kizza Besigye tried to visit and talk about possible dialogue with the Movement or the NRM. Still, he has not been that visible after the election. So he is like a ghost inside some buildings and venues in Uganda.

Than you have the youthful and funny character Elton Joseph Mabirizi who ran as independent candidate in the recent election in the The Independent Coalition (TIC), who I remember even meet up with Dr. Kizza Besigye while he was house-arrested as well, they had a decent talks there. Seems like a decent fellow, has even had a few TV spots after the election. His businesses keep him occupied and busy, his private schools for instance. So it is not like he needs politics. Even as he addressed the public like this on the 15th February: “Museveni lied again about providing sanitary pads to school going children during the last elections which he rigged!” This he said after the Monitor article that the schools wouldn’t give away sanitary pads to female students as promised during the general election of 2016.

Uganda EC Wall

These three are just a few of them, which have gone away in the wind, that isn’t main stay or having a meaningful place on the political map of Uganda. These we’re three persons or individuals we followed and swallowed their words during the general campaign. They showed character and flair. But went away when their time for seeking office went away, certainly themselves wish they more say after the elections. Still, their place and their microphone dwindle away as if they we’re able to build an organization or supporters, which they could use on the next go-around. Maj. Gen. Benon Biraaro has been there before and still doesn’t have a big organization behind; the same can be said with Dr. Abed Bwanika. It’s a different matter for Elton Joseph Mabirizi who went in without anything, but still worked together with another independent candidate Maureen Kyala Waluube who was the The Independent Coalition (TIC). I haven’t mentioned her, because she has stirred lot’s of madness on social media after the general election and continues to stir the pot. Not that she has a dozens of supporters, but she has the Mwenda effect online.

So do you wonder what these people are trying to achieve after the election? Do you wonder if they really want to build political parties or are they needed figures so President Museveni can say the election are democratic since he has enough candidates that there is initial election, even if the result is already fixed. So he can show that he opens the doors for many to show up, but has an electoral commission that closes the door when the ballot is cast.

These individual’s that was in the spotlight is dimming and is less there, their suction and their quotes isn’t there. Their focus is back to life or whatever they did before the election. So you are now a year since the ballot was cast the people who run for the ballots is not really there and you wonder if these will pop-up again when the Movement needs again. Because the Movement, they needs a road-show and candidates to spring up from the elephant grass. Certainly, it can seem so and wouldn’t be wrong to understand it so.

If you understand it differently than please say so, still the voices of these three has lingered and lost their value as they are not steady in the spotlight. They do not have a civil servant position, they are not MPs, and they are not RDCs or any other important level of public elected officials. Therefore, the three doesn’t have a giant say, neither do these ones take part of Capital Gang or NBS Frontline, therefore the voice is not in the midst of the national debate. They do not engage in the newspapers or in public in general. So there are many more reasons than just being out of office, because Norbert Mao isn’t an MP, but a leader of a party and steady on NBS Frontline, that is why his voice still matters because of the steady exposure.

So, will these men change or will they stay in the outskirts and suddenly embrace it when the elections return and the spotlight are on those that engage in that? Because that is when President Museveni needs gullible people and people he knows doesn’t have enough support to really challenge him. Peace.

South Sudan: A look into the President Salva Kiir’s visit to Addis!

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If you wonder what the Central Government of South Sudan is doing the neighbour country of Ethiopia. There are certainly many different answers, as the reports of Egyptian Airplanes have even been verified by Sudanese Regime in Khartoum. The South Sudanese wrote under an agreement with the Ethiopian regime, there might also be another reason as well, as the refugees goes into Gambella region. There are certainly lots of views and intelligence on the travels this time, as the crisis and the battles internally has reactions in Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia. Now it is just lacking UPDF to turn their cards into the SPLM/A battles in South Sudan. Take a look!

Salva Kiir team to Ethiopia seeking for forgiveness from Ethiopia:

“Sudanese President coming from his visit answering the reporters after Egyptians Military took a huge loss in involving in South Sudan civil war. Since the beginning of Feb. 2017, the Egyptian Military participated in bombardment in Unity State Upper Nile and Central Equatoria in Equatoria” (…) “In Unity State the Egyptian air force lodges its bombardment from 8:00 PM-11:00 PM, and that was daily until Feb. 20, 2017, due to the accident that happened with Egyptian air force bomber in Yei that went missing on Feb. 19, 2017, before lodge it’s bombardment” (…) “In Unity State all the captured cities using the Egyptian air force are recaptured and Kiirs terrorist took a big lost after a promising military combat from Egyptians army. Egyptians are using Sudan president to help cover up their loses” (…) “Kiir have no choose, but to take it to Ethiopia for more support diplomatically seeking for acceptance again from Ethiopian military to be mild to his terrorist regime after accepting Egyptian idea off sponsoring Ethiopian rebels. Kiir’s team that went to Ethiopia was to lie to the Ethiopians to them to cool down after Kiir’s aggression against Ethiopia” (SSUDA, 24.02.2017).

Presidential Spokesperson speaks about the talks:

“It will be something good for us, South Sudanese and Ethiopians, should these two leaders put into action what they will agree on. It’s our hope that the two agree on security issues. We don’t want any negative force to use another country’s territory to launch hostile activities on the other. Borders are really important to a country and having a good relationship with the bordering country is always the goal for both countries to progress together,” said Presidential Spokesperson, Ateny Wek Ateny” (…) “South Sudan- Ethiopia borders are not safe and this is what has prompted the two to meet,” Ateny further stressed” (Sudan Tribune, 24.02.2017).

Answer from Foreign Affairs of South Sudan:

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Republic of South Sudan has read with dismay the unfriendly statement alleged to have been made by the Sudanese President Omer Hassan El-Bashir, during the press briefing on his return from Abu Dhabi to Khartoum, on Tuesday 21st Feb. 2017, that the Egyptian Government continues to support South Sudan with arms and ammunitions” (…) “The Republic of South Sudan is disturbed by this unfortunate, unfounded and baseless statement, specially because it came at a time that the two Countries and the whole region have agreed to exert more collective efforts towards the realization of peace and stability in the IGAD region” (…) “The Ministry, therefore, calls on the leadership of the sisterly Country, Sudan, not to forget its responsibility to work with South Sudan in the spirit of the Cooperation agreement and to address any issue that may arise between the two neighboring Countries through dialogue and direct communications at leadership level and diplomatic channels. There is no way Sudan and South Sudan can abandon each other, because both countries share the longest border in the region, which needs special attention from their respective leaders” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs – South Sudan, 24.02.2017).

Signed Agreement:

“The signing ceremony took place in Addis Ababa today, following the bilateral talks held between Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and President Salva Kiir of South Sudan” (…) “The accords inked covered roads and bridges, communication, information and media, and preferential trade agreement as well as border trade protocol” (…) “The two countries have also signed memorandums of understandings on cooperation in the construction of roads, diesel off-take arrangement, health, and energy” (…) “The leaders have agreed to engage each other to implement the agreements and address any matter that may arise in the future” (…) “Acknowledging that free movement of people and goods are pre-requisites for enhancing economic ties and expeditious implementation of these agreements, the two leaders have decided with immediate effect to start the construction road projects” (…) “Noting with satisfaction the existing bilateral ties, they also agreed to continue to hold ministerial commission meetings led by respective foreign affairs ministers twice in a year” (…) “Agreement was also reached to form Joint Border Administrators/Governors Committee (JBAC) to further strengthen cooperation on issues of security, trade, development and infrastructure along the common borders” (ENA, 2017).

Hope that you got wiser as you have seen more of the state visit in Addis Ababa from the President Salva Kiir Mayardiit and his team. There are more to this and more not told, but this is what I could get of views on the matter. Unless, there showing more clear documentation of why the SPLM had to visit Ethiopia in this dire hour, where the famine and the civil-war continues. This is certainly not a visit in the hour of strength for the SPLM/A. There to many pieces of problems to be different. Peace.

Reference:

Ethiopian News Agency – ‘Ethiopia, South Sudan Sign Agreements, MoU that Forge Friendship’ (24.0.2.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/politics/item/2795-ethiopia-south-sudan-sign-agreements-mou-that-forge-friendship

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – The Republic of South Sudan – ‘PRESS RELEASE:  South Sudan Disturbed By Sudan’s Bashir Baseless Statement of Egyptian Support’ (24.02.2016)

Sudan Tribune – ‘South Sudan president in Ethiopia for security talks’ (24.02.2017) link: https://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61727

Opinion: Besigye doesn’t need dialogue with Museveni!

Besigye 23.02.2016 Kasangati

Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) do not need to have dialogue or negotiation with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) or the President himself. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni needs more the dialogue than the FDC and their party needs it. It is the NRM government and NRM regime who needs legitimacy and needs funds. That is proven with Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG) who proves with the 16 trillion shillings funds the for the 2017/2018 budget of the 30 trillion shillings needed. With this in mind there is certainly that the NRM needs more international support to fix missing funds.

That Museveni would need Besigye now a year after the General Election of 2016 shows how dire the situation is, the added debt and the troubling waters on the giant infrastructure projects, as much as the missing funds for the salaries or the other financial expenses that are occurring for the government. So the proof of issues is growing as the direct budget support has dwindled down as well as the elite and the cronies still expect to be fed by the regime.

Besigye has still a forged treason case, as much as Rwenzururu king Charles Wesley Mumbere has as well. The FDC headquarters was attacked and a crime-scene as the FDC Youth and FDC P10 was attacked as the defiance campaign was even banned by the Deputy Court Justice Stephen Kavuma. As well, the Police Force under IGP Kale Kayihura monitored and followed the leadership of FDC like they we’re criminal. There were many detained and house-arrested, there was more people hurt and hospitalized by state security organization. Also, the many inflicted and detained without warrants or court order shows the impunity of the state towards the FDC.

So after this impunity, after the illegal house-arrest of Besigye and the others who has been taken into prison without any justice served, why should the FDC try to sell their soul to the Movement? That is waste of time and waste of energy, it would be like the men who traded their political lives in Nairobi talks: “The NRA and the government signed a peace and power sharing agreement in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital Dec. 17 that called for an immediate cease-fire, the freezing of all troop movements and a half share of the ruling Military Council for the NRA” (…) “The provisions of the accord were largely ignored and both sides used the lull in the fighting to reposition and resupply their forces. The guerrillas claimed the military committed widespread human rights abuses after the accord was signed” (Charles Mitchell – ‘The National Resistance Army of rebel leader Yoweri Museveni…’ 26.01.1986 link: http://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/01/26/The-National-Resistance-Army-of-rebel-leader-Yoweri-Museveni/5549507099600/ ). So the agreement done by NRA in December 1985 wasn’t a big deal, so that Museveni could do a final sting and coup to gain power, which he has never left.

A negotiation with Museveni would only enforce his rule and his longevity in power nothing else. Besigye would not be offered anything substantial; his part in the matter would end in little or nothing. FDC would get the stick, but not get the price. Just like they wouldn’t feel a difference between now and then since the price of going into partnership would benefit Museveni. The Movement would get beneficiary funding and regard internationally since FDC has a higher standing abroad than Museveni.

M7 Guards Inaguration 2016

Museveni is well-known now because of his 7 terms and his position of executive since 1986. The reality of this that a negotiation or dialogue with Museveni at this stage is redundant, unless the President all of sudden turns his own self sideways. That he would go back on all his empty promises and all of his glory. Certainly Museveni could do so, but he knows that he has too many people on his consciences to leave it all behind. The President has eaten too much of the state coffers and cannot leave the bank-accounts behind. The family is too connected and has all the leverage in the state. The movement is built around him and if he fails than the party does as well.

The Movement and Museveni would not co-sign their powers or the authority, not after the rigging and the massive misuse of the state funds, therefore the lacking funds for the current budget. Museveni knows that his loyal friends abroad will not give in to his ways anymore, therefore hoping to play other cards. Use his political brain to suck other donors in. That while waiting for more oil-monies and also trade of other with making the UPDF to mercenary army in Equatorial Guinea or South Sudan if needed. This is because they need to get fresh funding for the State House, which hasn’t paid their payment-arrears to the owners of the Okello House!

So Besigye doesn’t need Museveni at this point, he needs his party and the loyalty of his supporters. That is more than Museveni has who needs to pay for loyalty and to secure funding for the movement itself. Therefore the jobs and funds to come steady, there is always more mouths to feed and more people to silence with brown envelopes. So Museveni needs foreign support and foreign aid as the Uganda Revenue Authority has just enough regulations and taxes to bring in funds that scrape the surface, but not fill the state coffers.

So again I say and I stand by it, Museveni is the only one earning political capital on negotiations and dialogue, nothing is really to be earned by the FDC or Besigye. So with this in mind, Museveni will only gain and Besigye will only lose on it. If you know you would lose, why give way to somebody who comes to take it all and deplete it all? Peace.

NDM Statement on the UNSC Meeting Pertaining to the Situation in South Sudan (24.01.2017)

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South Sudan: Communique on Deteriorating Security Situation in Kajo Keji (25.01.2017)

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South Sudan: CTSAMM Deeply Shocked and Saddend by the Deat of One of its Opposition Liason Officers in Wau (25.01.2017)

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South Sudan: Abduction of the Dong Samuel and Aggrey Idri by Kenyan Authorities (25.01.2017)

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