
“A command post is a committee of military personnel that actually holds power in an area under a state of emergency. In addition to command posts, the army also controls areas on many interregional borders” (Netherlands – ‘Country of Origin Information Report Ethiopia’ February 2021).
“The Amhara National Regional Government requested the federal government to implement the necessary legal framework as it was difficult to control the security breach in the Amhara region through the regular law enforcement system” (Ethiopian Press Agency, 03.08.2023).
When the Amhara Regional President Yilkal Kefale has sent this request to the Federal Government of Ethiopia. Then you have to anticipate some reactions. The Federal Government will push through and also issue orders. If we can learn anything from history and the past.
We should anticipate a decree of “State of Emergency” with provisions of “Command Posts”. This means the Law Enforcement and Army will have practical guidelines to shrink movements, block assembly and also use vile force against civilians. This is what has been done in the Oromia and Ogaden (Somali) regions and with massive repercussions for the general public. Therefore, the people of Amhara region should be aware of it.
The idea of giving the Federal Government this opportunity isn’t only to quell the “Fano” or the Amhara Popular Front (APF). No, it is to totally silence its critics and dissent. There will be a blackout, a disconnect from society and violent oppressive behaviour from law enforcement.
Just as the Fano-APF is winning territories and becoming more powerful. The reasons for a “State of Emergency” is there and there will be violent answers from the state. The state which is supposed to have the “monopoly” of violence and the ones that defend the borders from invaders. Alas, this is internal conflict that is going out of control. The Amhara regional state must feel powerless as former allies, trained military personnel and others are joining the rebelling Fano-APF, which are able to overrun and takeover strategic areas of the regional state.
No one should be shocked when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali will decree this and enforce it too. He will order not only troops but everyone who he can muster to end this insurgency. That is just a fact. The PM has done this before and had plenty of offensives in both Tigray region and Amhara region. Therefore, we shouldn’t be surprised that this war-effort will be similar in fashion.
Time will tell, but I’m not hopeful. This is a battle of former allies and state trained military personnel turned against the federal government. That is the sad reality here. The ones who was brothers in arms are now bitter enemies. Peace.















