Ethiopia: Tigrai Universities Scholars Association (TUSA) – A communique on the occasion of the half-length Ashenda celebration (21.08.2023)

Ethiopia: Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS) – Call to UN HRC and Member States to Extend and Expand the ICHREE Mandate (16.08.2023)

Ethiopia: Expect a “State of Emergency” and “Command Posts” decree for the Amhara Regional State

A command post is a committee of military personnel that actually holds power in an area under a state of emergency. In addition to command posts, the army also controls areas on many interregional borders” (Netherlands – ‘Country of Origin Information Report Ethiopia’ February 2021).

The Amhara National Regional Government requested the federal government to implement the necessary legal framework as it was difficult to control the security breach in the Amhara region through the regular law enforcement system” (Ethiopian Press Agency, 03.08.2023).

When the Amhara Regional President Yilkal Kefale has sent this request to the Federal Government of Ethiopia. Then you have to anticipate some reactions. The Federal Government will push through and also issue orders. If we can learn anything from history and the past.

We should anticipate a decree of “State of Emergency” with provisions of “Command Posts”. This means the Law Enforcement and Army will have practical guidelines to shrink movements, block assembly and also use vile force against civilians. This is what has been done in the Oromia and Ogaden (Somali) regions and with massive repercussions for the general public. Therefore, the people of Amhara region should be aware of it.

The idea of giving the Federal Government this opportunity isn’t only to quell the “Fano” or the Amhara Popular Front (APF). No, it is to totally silence its critics and dissent. There will be a blackout, a disconnect from society and violent oppressive behaviour from law enforcement.

Just as the Fano-APF is winning territories and becoming more powerful. The reasons for a “State of Emergency” is there and there will be violent answers from the state. The state which is supposed to have the “monopoly” of violence and the ones that defend the borders from invaders. Alas, this is internal conflict that is going out of control. The Amhara regional state must feel powerless as former allies, trained military personnel and others are joining the rebelling Fano-APF, which are able to overrun and takeover strategic areas of the regional state.

No one should be shocked when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali will decree this and enforce it too. He will order not only troops but everyone who he can muster to end this insurgency. That is just a fact. The PM has done this before and had plenty of offensives in both Tigray region and Amhara region. Therefore, we shouldn’t be surprised that this war-effort will be similar in fashion.

Time will tell, but I’m not hopeful. This is a battle of former allies and state trained military personnel turned against the federal government. That is the sad reality here. The ones who was brothers in arms are now bitter enemies. Peace.

Ethiopia: Fano-(APF) is the para-military group that comes to haunt Abiy…

With the invasion in November 2020, there was a tripartite alliance, which consisted of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) and Amhara Para-military Group “Fano”. That para-military group is now haunting the Federal Government and everyone else.

Fano should have been a worry from the onset, as the Amhara regional state was getting militarised and getting heavily invested in the destruction, looting and genocidal affairs in Tigray region. That should have been a red-flag and a warning to Addis Ababa. However, Abiy and Afewerki was happy to see the actions and the mischief of Fano in Tigray. They even cheered them on and supported their endeavour.

Now in 2023 things has changed. The power-dynamics are shifting and the pendulum is swinging against Amhara. They are already prepared and have been supported by the state. The Amhara regional state has boosted the Fano para-military group extensively and certainly ensured it with much recruits. The nationalism and extremist leaders who promotes the Amhara’s chauvinism will not stop either. They are willing to do die for the land they have annexed in Tigray and they have no issues going to war against its own federal government doing so.

That’s the proof these days. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali only creates more conflict and bloodshed. If there isn’t plight or suffering, somehow the PM will deliver it to your doorstep. A warlord who thrives in war. He already has the Amhara Popular Front (APF) to fight there as well. Now the Fano is totally rebelling against the state, which they used to serve diligently.

The ENDF has a massive load and it’s across the spectrum. They are not silencing the guns but having several of internal conflicts at once. While they haven’t been able to honour or trying to follow up on the Pretoria Agreement in concern to leaving the territories of Tigray. That’s what is also triggering the Fano and APF. They are willing to fight over these and will also undermine own regional state doing so. Meaning the war will persist and it will cost more lives.

Abiy is now having an outright civil-war with a former ally. He has to use his army and all allies to ensure the end of Fano or the APF. There are elements of Fano within the APF and also former Regional Special Forces, which was disbanded recently. Therefore, there is well trained soldiers and militia men who is fighting against the state. They are doing so on their own turf and neighbourhoods. That’s why it won’t be easy. The APF and Fano could possibly do this all for their “independence” and sovereignty, as they feel violated by the consolidation of power from Abiy. Which was the reason for the war in Tigray in the first place. So, it took some time for Amhara to catch up with Abiy’s endgame.

The Fano-APF is a danger that the ENDF has to commit too. The militia is now outright taking over strategic places in the Amhara region. That must hurt the pride of both the leadership of Bahir Dar and Addis Ababa. They are losing control of zones and woredas, which makes it harder for the regional state to hold control over. Meaning these are upright areas where Fano-APF resides now and the ENDF has to return.

What is striking is how an ally has turned into an enemy so quickly. It didn’t take long and now the former ally is upright the worst enemy he can have. The Fano-APF isn’t just a theoretical threat, but one acting openly and they are welcomed in the places they conquer too. That should be of great concern to Addis Ababa. As they are not as favoured, as they think they are and within the Amhara Regional State. There are several who supports and believes in the gospel of these para-military groups. They believe and have faith in them. That is what is extremely dangerous here and that’s what the Prosperity Party allowed to happen. As they not only supported, but defended the Fano. They used the services of Fano and now it comes back to bite them. Peace.

Ethiopa: Amhara Association of America (AAA) – Amhara Representatives Forced to Walk Out of Ethiopian Diaspora Peace Conference Meeting (01.08.2023)

Ethiopia: United Nations (UN) experts urge Ethiopia to halt mass deportation of Eritreans (13.07.2023)

The Ethiopian Refugee and Returnee Service (RSS) stated that those deported were not refugees or asylum seekers.

GENEVA, Switzerland, July 13, 2023 – UN experts today* condemned Ethiopia’s summary expulsion of hundreds of Eritreans at the end of June. They called on the authorities to immediately halt any further deportations and put an end to the continuing reports of arbitrary detention of Eritrean refugees, asylum-seekers and migrants.

“Collective expulsions are prohibited under international law,” the experts said. “Deporting migrants, refugees and asylum-seekers without conducting an individual and objective risk assessment of their exposure to human rights violations, including torture and enforced disappearance, upon return is refoulement.”

The non-refoulement principle, enshrined in the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment and other international human rights treaties and legal instruments, applies to all forms of expulsion, regardless of nationality or migration status, they said.

“Several cases of family separation have been reported following the mass deportations, with parents forced back to Eritrea and children left behind in Ethiopia,” the experts said.

Patterns of human rights violations against forcibly returned Eritreans, including torture, ill-treatment, enforced disappearance, trafficking and arbitrary detention, have been well documented in previous reports by the UN Commission of Inquiry on Eritrea and the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea. “There is no information on the fate or whereabouts of those deported since their return to Eritrea,” the experts said. “We urge the Eritrean authorities to provide information on their fate and whereabouts and to ensure that they can have access to their relatives, lawyers or anyone of their choice.”

The Ethiopian Refugee and Returnee Service (RSS) stated that those deported were not refugees or asylum seekers. However, according to several credible sources, the group included both registered and unregistered refugees and asylum-seekers. The RSS stopped registering newly arrived asylum-seekers in March 2020, preventing them from accessing the asylum process and from applying for protection under international human rights and refugee law.

“The lack of registration and accompanying documentation places refugees and asylum-seekers in a situation of heightened vulnerability and hinders their access to their human rights in Ethiopia,” the experts said. “We urge organisations with refugee protection mandates, including UNHCR, to mobilise and engage proactively with the Ethiopian authorities to address the lack of access to the asylum system and relevant documentation for asylum-seekers and refugees.”

The UN experts expressed grave concern about the ongoing situation of Eritreans in Ethiopia, noting the reports of continued arrests and prolonged arbitrary detention of Eritreans for alleged violations of immigration law, without charge, without access to a lawyer and without judicial process.

“Immigration detention should be an exceptional measure of last resort, used only for adults, for the shortest period of time and for a legitimate purpose,” the experts said. “It also appears that the authorities are specifically targeting Eritreans, a practice that constitutes discrimination.”

Ethiopia: Enat Party, All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP), Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP), Amhara Ghinoians Movement and One Ethiopia Democratic Party – Joint statemet on the current situation of Ethiopia – Rescuing our country Ethiopia from looming existential threat demands bold and immediate action! (12.07.2023)

Ethiopia: A damning report on the progress of CoHA…

“Large areas of Tigray (defined in this monitoring by its pre-war boundaries) remain off limits to independent Civil Society Organizations’ (CSO) monitors and journalists, which means that the protection concerns and fate of civilians in those regions cannot be fully assessed. Some geographical zones are particularly difficult to gather data on in real time, including the contested region of Western Tigray*, as well as southern areas bordering Amhara, and northern regions bordering Eritrea. Even the AU monitoring team has been prevented from accessing certain areas” (ETHIOPIA WATCH: CIVIL SOCIETY MONITOR OF THE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT, 10.07.2023).

The truth shall set you free. The newest report from Africans For the Horn of Africa (Af4HA) and the Ethiopia Watch is a horrific tale of events. The Cessation of Hostilities Agreement should have settled things for good. It should be the goodwill and an agreement, which could be implemented for the common good after a prolonged war. Alas, that isn’t the case.

The FDRE and the Tripartite Alliance is still negating the agreement and disobeying it in favour of their own. That’s why the revelations of it is telling a story, which we know the Prime Minister Abiy and the Prosperity Party don’t want to tell.

These paragraphs needs to be circulated, because it proves what sort of activities that goes on and what transpires. Even if there is a peace, it isn’t following the accords of the agreement and neither is it settling the annexations; which several of the Tripartite Alliance members have committed in Tigray region. That is hurting the agreement and the implementation. While the guns aren’t totally silenced and neither is things back to normal after the “Law Enforcement Operation” was announced…

“The ‘Declaration of executive plan of the Pretoria peace agreement’, a set of operational modalities signed by military commanders of the parties shortly following the CoHA, states that the ‘disarmament of heavy weapons will be done concurrently with the withdrawal of foreign and non-ENDF forces from the region’ [Addis Standard]. Understanding non-ENDF to mean Eritrean as well as Amhara forces, there is currently no official report from the Federal Government on the status of their withdrawal. By contrast, Tigrayan figures have not been silent on the continued presence of and attacks by Eritrean forces in Tigray [Addis Standard]” (ETHIOPIA WATCH: CIVIL SOCIETY MONITOR OF THE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT, 10.07.2023).

“Although the Afar and Amhara regional leadership were not formal signatories to the CoHA, as key parties to the conflict their stake in the CoHA and its implementation for durable peace in the country is an important factor that is not considered under the CoHA. In addition to serious concerns about humanitarian impacts and the protection of civilians, there is also a risk that dynamics in these regions could undermine the CoHA process. Active armed conflict continues, particularly in the Amhara region, between armed groups and Ethiopian federal forces over issues and grievances not necessarily linked to the conflict in Tigray, but which could hinder progress made by the CoHA” (ETHIOPIA WATCH: CIVIL SOCIETY MONITOR OF THE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT, 10.07.2023).

“The exclusion of a number of relevant regional conflict actors from the CoHA process is a challenge to its legitimacy and is fostering further tensions across the country. A more comprehensive peace deal is needed for Ethiopia. The CoHA between the Federal Government and the TPLF can serve as an example for ongoing and further negotiations, and can be built on, both in terms of its positive aspects and learning from its shortcomings. The Federal Government can learn from the shortcomings of the CoHA that negotiations should be as inclusive as possible, and that a CoHA should include a roadmap for discussion of politically divisive issues so that civilians do not continue to pay the price for a fragile peace” (ETHIOPIA WATCH: CIVIL SOCIETY MONITOR OF THE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT, 10.07.2023).

These paragraphs should be worrying. This is concerning for Ethiopia and the regions surrounding Tigray. Not only is Tigray still hurting, but Amhara and Afar is also a victim in this. While the Regional State of Amhara has enlarged itself and continues to violently oppress and annex parts of the Tigray region.

This should worry people and the fragile state of the CoHA. The agreement is built on goodwill and implementation. When the parties are not talking or following the accords. You can question the sincerity of it. While the signatories are also lacking, as the Tripartite Alliance wasn’t a part of it. This shatters the ideals and the possible moral grandstanding. The FDRE should enforce the Amhara region and be in shuttle diplomacy with Asmara. Alas, we haven’t seen that, and the silence is deafening.

This report tells a story, which needs to be amplified. Because this shows the true nature of how the FDRE, and its allies are acting in Tigray region. Even as the CoHA is supposed to be enacted and followed. Peace.

Ethiopia: Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS) – Open Letter – Not Resuming Humanitarian Operations is Double Injustice to Victims of Man-made Famine, War Crimes, Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide in Tigray (04.07.2023)

Ethiopia: National Congress of Great Tigray – Open Letter (03.07.2023)