Opinion: When will the grace period of the Chinese loans end? – While, Kenya and Uganda continues to borrow more!

The Government of Kenya and the Government of Uganda, should both worry about their arrangements and their growing debts, as the non-sustainable rates of debt and higher interests. As the unnatural growth of the national budget, where the lack of revenue is covered with more state debt. To cover both salaries and development projects. All of this has happen over the recent years. As more and more of the yearly budget goes to pay interest on old loans, as the old loans also mature and the rates will become more dire. As the strength of the economy isn’t going in the same rates as the loans. This is in the end a debt trap. A debt trap China has used in other countries.

Sri Lanka is the recent example, which has come into a debt trap, where the Chinese loans has become so dire, become so big and not able to recover. That the collateral for the state was to favorable lease the harbor of Hambantota to the Chinese. They had too, since they couldn’t repay the creditor from Peking. That should be realization from all the others who borrows big and think that the Chinese will not get something valuable back for their funding.

This should be a warning for the Kenyan and Ugandan counterparts, this should be a warning for President Kenyatta and President Museveni. That is if they care about the state resources, about their minerals and about the possible extractions from their republics. If they want to be debt-slaves, or lease away the crown jewels to the Chinese, because they promised favorable debt plans, that in the end put them in juxtaposition, that they cannot come out off; unless they trade away something very valuable. If that would be licenses to drill oil in Turkana or in Bunyoro.

Who knows what the end-game of these massive loans are and if the Presidents and their parties plans to repay them. Or hope that the next generation will try to invent new way of generating money. If so, then they are saved by rare luck and not by planning ahead. These loans are big and taking bigger and bigger slices of the GDP. They are going far beyond the levels of revenue and possible future forecast of funds. Therefore, the loans can only at this point benefit the ones giving them. They will get the repayments and the interests. If they don’t get that, they will take collateral and take other state entities to get their values back. The Chinese are doing that in Sri Lanka, they could easily do that with Kenya and Uganda too. They are in for the taking and ready to muscled out.

The Chinese doesn’t play and doesn’t play with money, they will recollect and they will recover the funds spent. As they are not playing games, they are really investing and hoping to get paid-in-full. They are waiting for the numbers to go from red to black. They don’t expect to loose, and if they do. They will figure other ways to collect the lost.

President Kenyatta and President Museveni should know this, but I doubt they are thinking in this direction right now. They are eating and not caring, but their states and their economist should worry. As the growing debts has a backside, not only the interests and the lack of development it creates, as they have to find bigger revenue to cover the debt and the mature loans, as they have to settle old affairs and such. They don’t go away or get deleted over nothing. They got to take charge and find a way to solve it.

The Chinese will take advantage if they start to default, if they struggle to pay, which could come, if the loans and the negative spiral of lack of revenue continues. That is if the state doesn’t find ways to repay. Than, the Chinese might take a port, might take state owned enterprise, but surely they will be paid-in-full. Peace.

Tanzania: Massive military activity ahead of tomorrow’s opposition protest!

Today, there has been something out of the ordinary, today the military and police has taken over the streets of Dar Es Saalam, a day ahead of the planned demonstrations on Union Day. This is a collective effort of the government to shut-down dissidents. This is happening all over the republic. This the answer from the government run by President John Pombe Magufuli, who has had issues with anyone questioning him and critiquing him. Over time he has shown his true color and ways! 

Yesterday arrests of people behind the demonstrations:

At least seven people have been arrested in Arusha for interrogations in connection with their role in possible political demonstrations across the country on 26 April 2018 (Union Day). The acting Regional Police Commander for Arusha, Mr Yusuph Ilembo, told journalists on Tuesday, April 24, 2018 that the arrests follow investigations conducted by the police force” (Juma, 2018).

Therefore, the precautions of the state is already involved, as the state whose now on the streets with guns, battalions of soldiers and such. To really signal, that demonstrations and protests are not allowed by this government.

As further reported:

The Dar Special Zone police chief, Sweethbert Njwele told an association of bodaboda operators on Wednesday that ‘there will be no demonstrations’” (…) ‘‘Everybody should go about their work as they usually do,’‘ Njwele said” (…) “ The city’s deputy police boss, Yusuph Ilembo, told journalists that the “government will not allow an illegal protest being planned by a few people to destabilise the country”(Mumbere, 2018).

So today, they put up the anti, they pulled the guns. Not only arresting fellow people involved in arranging the protest, but also telling motorcycle taxis and the public in general. To stay away, while ordering the police and army to intervene.

There should be understanding from the government behind this arrests, as the window for free speech, freedom of expression and even dissident voices are oppressed. If a paper write negatively or against the president. It will be suspended, if someone write a song that has certain illegal messages in it, it will be banned from being broadcast on the radio. If an opposition MP says the truth about the President’s behavior. He will be detained and taken hostage by the government, before being served with new jail time. That is the state of affairs under Magufuli. This has been happening over time.

Magufuli went from being praise for his goodness and his acts against corruption. However, he control-freak and lack of integrity, real leadership skills and understanding of his role has President. Is evident in the actions against the ones planning to protest, also against the media, singers and opposition MPs, that has all tasted: “What Would Magufuli do?”. Well the answer is: “He would punish you!”.

It is with warning, the demonstrations and nationwide demonstrations, as the evident soldiers in the street and the Police warning the public. The truth of the dictatorial actions are already there, with how the government has pursuit people in the past year. Therefore, not expect a comfortable result tomorrow.

What we are seeing now, is a man that thinks he understand his role, but he doesn’t, instead of leading, he is ordering. Instead of delegating and working with consensus. Instead, everyone is supposed to sing his tune, dance to his steps and praise the glory of all the United Republic of Tanzania, President Magufuli. Peace.

Reference:

Juma, Mussa – ‘Tanzania: Seven Arrested Over Union Day Protests’ (24.04.2018) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201804240687.html

Mumbere, Daniel – ‘’No protests tomorrow’: Tanzania police tells citizens to keep calm’ (25.04.2018) link: http://www.africanews.com/2018/04/25/no-protests-tomorrow-tanzania-police-tells-citizens-to-keep-calm/

Communique of the Double Troika Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) – (24.04.2018)

The Paternalistic Tanzanian State wants to control all Content Online!

There are some leaders who has the need to control the media, to the levels of stupidity, some leaders cannot manage critics or even questions about their actions. That they continue to supress and silence the opposition. They get suspended the broadcasting licence, they get suspending from publishing their newspapers and even fellow politicians who comes with rhetorical questions can end behind bars. That is the truth of Tanzania under President Dr. John Pombe Magufuli.

He has now taken it further, he is now charging fees for people for signing up content online, if you’re a blogger, it will cost 930 United States dollars any given year to do it. They have to be registered and on file to be able to write online. That would have costed me and I have been doing this for years. Clearly, Magufuli doesn’t like free spirits, unless they are all praising his narrow mind.

If the blog even causes “annoyances”, meaning if it insults the presumed intelligence of Magufuli, then the blog page will be suspended and taken down. The blogger/writer will not allowed to be published. This is a way of the state to sanction and control all written word. Also all content online and seek the ones who can afford to think on their own!

That is high price for a service, that if you have the basic packages of blogs, it doesn’t cost, unless you are paying for address and other extra services on the blog itself. Therefore, this is to secure that the ones with lack of funds cannot write online. This is to know exactly who writes and operates within the state and make sure publishers follows government guidelines. Just like they forcefully does to other media.

The Tanzanian Government under Magufuli has been relentless and ruthless to the media. Therefore, this is just the next step; they have banned songs from famous pop-stars already. Therefore, this is just the next move, to alter the media and alter the freedom of oppression. Now, the state can also have oversight and total control of the blogs, just as if they do with radio, TV and Newspapers. This will likely make it harder for people to start writing and question the government. Since, it is a big hurdle to have 930 US Dollars to pay the government to do so.

The free mind, the thinking minds and the ones questioning authorities online, will now you have to be registered there and they have an oversight role over you. The state will decide and grant you the permission to blog, podcast, and whatnot online. The paternal state is there and they are not subtle about it.

If you would be wise, would be to use VPN and register in whatever republic, nation or dominion, where the state cannot control you, but then again. You have to remember to use that trick to not be caught with IP Address and whatnot. That is if you are a free thinker and defiant in the mode of an over-controlling state. Peace.

Trump’s Trade-War is now hitting East Africa: Because of possible lost trade with Second-Hand Clothes!

Museveni buying shoes in Wandegeya, 02.06.2017.

United States of America is really just cherry-picking the world right now, they are evolving into a beast and not an Uncle Sam. President Donald J. Trump don’t like to have friends, unless they are related or Roger Stone. That is now seen with his recent activity, not that he knows of these countries or these market. That I say, because he has no hotel or haven’t laundered money from there. The countries being hurt by his new policies are Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania. Places he would never travel to or have consideration about. That is because in his mind, they are shitholes, but as long as they serve as vassal states for the United States. Everything is fine and dandy.

What we are talking about is this:

(A) THE PRESIDENT IS AUTHORIZED TO DESIGNATE A SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRY AS AN ELIGIBLE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRY IF THE PRESIDENT DETERMINES THAT THE COUNTRY (SEE NOTE*)

(1) (A country that) has established, or is making continual progress toward establishing–

(A) a market-based economy that protects private property rights, incorporates an open rules-based trading system, and minimises government interference in the economy through measures such as price controls, subsidies, and government ownership of economic assets” (AGOA – ‘AGOA Country Eligibility’).

It is special that the US President is using this against these three states on the imports of used-clothes and shoes. That these three republics trying to develop their own textile and clothes industry, to create work and also revamp the economies. That would mean, that people would also earn more money and spend more money. In the end buying foreign produced clothes on the fashion-lines, that usually are branding American and European brands. Therefore, I don’t understand why Trump suddenly acts like this, when Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania wants to secure their industries.

Because, it is not many days ago, since the President himself used rules and provisions to secure the Steel and Aluminum industry on his own soil. So, that the giant United States can control it, but their trading with other can be spoiled, because it doesn’t favor the President. Seems like double-standard to be. It is easy to muffle the poor and the ones with lack budgets, that are in need of donors. They need to stifle the demands of the powerful, but the ones with power can just use the same means themselves. Still, that doesn’t make it right.

That the United States are trying to force their used-clothes on Rwanda. Like they don’t deserve their own clothes industry and to secure better products, local designs and local textiles is insane. Why shouldn’t they strive for that? Why shouldn’t Uganda strive for their own Bata’s? What is wrong with Tanzanian made shoes? Nothing really, that should be supported, especially if the United States wants to think long-term and create better exports. They would earn even more on ordinary trade of clothes, not second-hand that sold bulk and through other channels. But I am sure that Trump has no knowledge of this or even could imagine it.

This is clearly a step of imperialism from United States, since they cannot stomach, that the partners and the ones getting donations through USAID. Isn’t accepting to be a bazaar for their used stuff. The products that is B-Level and already had their day in the sunshine.

Knowingly, how he is America First, the man himself should understand how others wants to build to their own industries, but thinking Trump has that capacity of thinking is overstepping and thinking that he could actually calculate, that others are sovereign too and not only his state. The East African Republic’s shouldn’t be punished for acting in their own interests over second-hand clothes. Neither second hand shoes. That is insulting and infuriating. If it was just charity and done out direct needs. It would make sense, but if your forcing bad products, because of own will for quick-profits and at the same time destroying local industries. I understand why Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda is trying to ban it and stop it. I respect that and stand behind it. Who wants a old T-Shirt, when you can buy a local-made?

If you buy a local-made, it would create a job for the one making it, the one designing it and the one selling, plus the distribution within the state. That is good business and create lots of job. These jobs create other jobs and funnel money in the system. So some of them will buy foreign design and clothes, that might even be American. That is how the United States should think, if they cared about a free-market narrative, but they are now planning to punish Rwanda and others, because they want to build-up own industry.

Trump is creating a trade-war over Second Hand Clothes.

Second Hand Clothes to East Africa!

Washington, DC – The President determined today the eligibility of Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda for trade preference benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). In response to a petition filed by the U.S. used clothing industry in March 2017, the Administration initiated an out-of-cycle review of Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda’s AGOA eligibility regarding their decisions to phase in a ban on imports of used clothing and footwear. The review found that this import ban harms the U.S. used clothing industry and is inconsistent with AGOA beneficiary criteria for countries to eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment. Based on the results of the review, the President determined that Rwanda is not making sufficient progress toward the elimination of barriers to U.S. trade and investment, and therefore is out of compliance with eligibility requirements of AGOA. Consequently, the President notified Congress and the Government of Rwanda of his intent to suspend duty-free treatment for all AGOA-eligible apparel products from Rwanda in 60 days” (AGOA – ‘ President Trump Determines Trade Preference Program Eligibility For Rwanda, Tanzania, And Uganda’ 30.03.2018).

This is infuriating and not cool. AGOA should be used as a method to not destroy industry in the developing countries, but add revenue both ways. Now the United States is just using imperialism. Trade-War with East African Countries.

Trump is foolish and also, this is not gaining sympathy and the reasons for this. This isn’t adding and just show how belittling and narrow-minded he is. But that we knew, we just have to see who spanks him. Peace.

Tanzania: Police Bans the Political Party ACT Chama Cha Wazalendo from having all kinds of internal party work!

On the 8th March 2018, the Police sent an order to the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT) Chama Cha Wazalendo. This order is directly banning and making it illegal for the party to organize itself. The Tanzanian Police has ordered that meeting people in their houses and have town hall meetings is illegal. They are also banning all internal meetings within the ACT Chama Cha Wazalendo party.

Meaning the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the party of the President is consolidating his power even more, as his attacks on the media and certain individuals was the start. Now he is directly banning other party from working within their party organization. In general the ACT Chama Cha Wazalendo is directly illegal, because they cannot gather, not have internal meetings and not meet in people’s houses. They are banned from moving, having gatherings and even do party internal work. President John Magufuli must be so proud of his actions.

We know that Magufuli is afraid, that he is weak and cannot stomach criticism, that is proven during his term. That is why radios lost their license, papers sanctioned and opposition political leaders detained. That is the reason why he now orders the Police to silence ACT Chama Cha Wazalendo. He cannot manage that they are questioning his authority. The only way to prove it is by banning, detaining and control it with force. Magufuli doesn’t have the heart or the understanding of using his position to address the opposition with rhetoric and political papers. Instead, he detains and bans.

That is why the ACT Chama Cha Wazalendo is the latest victim of the weak President. Who cannot muster force to stand up against the people who disagree with him. A President who doesn’t have the character to understand the opposition. Because he is the almighty, the head honcho and the man with all the answers. If Hitchhikers Guide To Galaxy was written today, Douglas Adams would have written that Deep Thought and Magufuli is the same character. If you have any questions, anything you need understood, you go to Magufuli and not traveling around the galaxy to Deep Thought like Ford Perfect did. Because Magufuli would have the answer even “42” and all the others you might need.

We have seen this over time. Again Magufuli proves it. Peace.

Opinion: President Magufuli is weak and sensitive, since he cannot manage criticism!

I don’t know anyone who is more sensitive, I don’t know how little criticism this leader can handle. It is shocking and sinister how little this can handle. I can write what I like, because I don’t have to fear for that man. I don’t have to hide, because he won’t shut down my radio, my newspaper or my online page. The man cannot stop my explicit tune playing the radio. My office will not be raided by the police, my home will be war-zone as they pull me out and detain me. I will not be charged and be in prison for 5 months.

Some would think I would write about their specific leader, since these sort of individuals are on the rise. But this is dedicated to the Tanzanian President John Pombe Joseph Magufuli, who with his ruling party has arrested people of the opposition on Zanzibar, has taken control over the broadcasting licenses and orders everyone around. President Magufuli cannot manage criticism. Critics and Opposition is venom to him. It kills his thoughts, his ideas and his vision, no matter how small or big. It just destroys him. He become bitter and instead of answer back with facts and arguments. He send the police and uses his authority to silence them.

It is so weak, it so belittling and show how little imagination Magufuli has, it shows how little of mind he has. That he cannot muster strength and mind to battle his opponents. The President cannot manage to address them like common folk in a conversation. Everyone has that with someone they have a conversation over some time, will weather you like it or not, disagree. That is natural and therefore, you don’t come with hatred and sanctions. But ideas and other perspective, to figure out reasonable result, a consensus if you may. However, in the Tanzania under Magufuli, that is a Noble idea and a quest into oblivion. You will find heroes on the other side of the border somewhere, not inside.

President Magufuli is a lost cause, he is barren and seemingly striking against anyone writing and saying stuff about him. I would have written this in Tanga Port, Arusha or Dodoma. If I was writing this in an internet cafe, I would expect to hampered, questioned by the police and charged for sending out questionable content. I know it is questionable, because I am questioning the ability of Magufuli to be an honest and good leader.

I have doubts that he can ever aspire to greatness, ever become a hero or even be legendary leader. I have doubt he can, he doesn’t have the character or the strength to pull it off. Magufuli is a coward and forgery, he cannot manage to address newspapers, neither radio stations, also opposition politicians. The ones who ask questions and calls him names. That is why he isn’t great, but a weakling. Because he hasn’t got the guts to be under-fire, without striking back, if he had gone after them with words and arguments. It would make sense, as that would further the agenda and prove his mental capacity of leadership. Instead, he is ordering and using force against the ones speaking up. Using the police and courts as political tools to silence dissidents. Like a little bitch, a little whiny weakling who cannot manage to open his mouth, use simple reasoning and facts to address the ones calling him names.

It is vindictive, it is vicious and shows the lack of heart. It lacks the basic instinct of gratitude, it is more of misuse of power and ruthlessness. He cannot manage to control his mind and his visions, he cannot handle people working against him or speaking ill of him. So the best way is to silence them, so he cannot hear them for a while. Magufuli is weak, bitter and desperate. It cannot be easy, not managing questions, not managing people speaking up and not even sexual explicit songs from Diamond Platinums on the radio. Shiish, what a Republic it has become.

Magufuli, you brought so much hope, but your were just a weak man, not able or not having the character to run the Republic. Why I say that, because you cannot stomach people who you disagree with or address you. That is why you cannot manage to be a leader, to be proud and rule. You are not tough, you are soft and an excuse of a man who leads the Republic.

I know you would have detained me for this, because I insult your pride and your honour, however, you have insulted the intelligence of your own people. That they have a President who has no common sense, who cannot manage his temper and be level headed. Instead, your high and mighty on the throne, but cannot manage the people taunting you. Are you a clown or are you a leader? Seemingly your leading people, but ordering them. Because if your not following orders and dissent, you can expect arrests and judgment in favor of the state.

If that how you think you will succeed. You might quell it and they will re-return to prison for speaking against you again. You are creating enemies, you are creating renegades and revolutionaries, because your assaulting the ordinary liberty and their freedoms. All of that happens because the thin-skinned character you are, cannot manage to be touched or insulted. You cannot manage to questioned or humiliated in public. Clearly, you can only manage praise and public support by fellow leaders and people.

President Magufuli do you want to be recognized as weak? Is that who you are? A weak and softhearted man, who cannot manage criticism. Time to step up your game and handle this with sense. I know I am asking much, but someone has to say it. Peace.

Tanzania: Criticism of President Leads to Imprisonment (01.03.2018)

These developments together heighten already significant concerns about Tanzania’s commitment to democratic governance and human rights.

WASHINGTON D.C., United States of America, March 1, 2018 – In response to a court in Tanzania sentencing two opposition political leaders — Joseph Mbiliyini and Emmanuel Masonga – to five months’ imprisonment for using insulting language against President John Magufuli, Freedom House issued the following statement:

“The jailing of opposition politicians for expressing their views on issues of public interest, such as political violence, highlights the Magufuli administration’s growing intolerance of peaceful and legitimate dissent and is aimed at intimidating critics of the government,” said Jon Temin, director of Africa programs. “At the same time, credible reports of the kidnapping, disappearance and murder of several political and human rights activists in recent months point to accelerating political violence. These developments together heighten already significant concerns about Tanzania’s commitment to democratic governance and human rights.”

Tanzania is rated Partly Free in Freedom in the World 2018 and Partly Free in Freedom of the Press 2017.

Opinion: The UPM’s Aims and Objectives are grand, but did Museveni deliver them?

During the last few days, don’t remember when, but Moses Byamugisha on Social Media showed two pictures, which is a part of the Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM) Membership Card from 1980. This is the first party of now President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. It might seem as forgotten past, a past that we should just forgot, but I can’t, it is certain proof of important words and ideas, that still should be worked for. UPM and the agenda that Museveni worked for back-then. Is still worth doing today, even if President Museveni is just working for himself and his cronies. Not working for the betterment of society, that part of him is already gone.

I will first list of the ‘Aims and Objectives’ of the UPM Membership Card. Its 16 points, which seems like points, the Republic still needs and should work for.

16 Points:

1. Unity

2. Democracy

3. National Independence

4. Social Progress

5. Clean Leadership

6. Peace, Security and tranquility

7. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of the nation

8. National Common Language

9. Workers and Peasants participation in the decisions making process of the Party and State machinery

10. Building of a proper defence and security systems

11. Encourage and sustain collective leadership

12. Create condition that will make every citizens have a right to education and medical care

13. Follow and adhere to a policy of a viable mixed autonomy for Uganda

14. Follow a policy of non alignment on a basis of mutual benefits and subscribe to OAU and UN Charters

15. Subscribe to the Basic Human Rights as enshrined in the UN Charter

16. Give moral and material support to the orphans and widows and other victims of the Fascist rule and liberation war

All of this was subtle and good ideas, needed ones that hasn’t lost their power or need. The Republic needs first aim Unity, not only hire and develop the Western parts of Uganda. Just like the troubles of just hiring people from the northern of Uganda under Obote and Amin. Therefore, this is still needed, as the Ankoli and areas around has gotten more and become more important, than the rest of the republic. Bunyoro is getting vital because of coming oil industry. Not because Museveni cares about it deeply.

Second aim, Democracy still needs to be worked upon. By all means because of the Life Presidency, enacted by the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The Second Party of the President, all follows his whip and is non-democratic from the choices of Members of Parliament and their votes. If they don’t follow orders, like voting for life presidency, then they will not only be labeled rebels, but also punished through the party organization. The NRM isn’t democratic, neither is the state. There are lacking democratic decision making and the elections are rigged. Its not the will of the people, but the will of Museveni.

The third aim, don’t need comments, but fourth and fifth needs it. The ‘Social Progress’ and ‘Clean Leadership’. Needs to be address, it is better then back in the day, but having three decades to advance. The NRM should have come much longer, than it has. The Social progress has not evolved, its only for a minority group. Biggest part of society is stagnated and falling behind with unemployment and lack of development. Clean leadership is long gone with Presidential Handshake, pay-off of Members of Parliament, misusing opposition parties and trading position because of loyalty and not merit. Therefore, the NRM have failed with perfection here.

Aim six and seven are questionable at best. ‘Peace, Security and Tranquility’. Peace they do have, but the security and tranquility, not so much. The Security Organizations are more criminal than thieves, they are killers and hired goons themselves. Police are investigated by CMI and UPDF. There are lacking lines and trust to the Courts. The Northern Uganda is done with civil war, but the army has still created uncertainty in Kasese and Rwenzori as they are battling their own. Killings are happening and unsolved by the authorities. Even assassinations of big men within the Security Organization themselves.

The aim eight, ‘National Common Language’ have been effective and worked, as English and Luganda is well-known and most can understand either one or both. The NRM has worked smoothly with this. One of the few things, the NRM actually has achieved. The Uglish is fantastic.

Aim nine, peasants and workers are not really a part of making decisions and taking part of the party. The decisions are made in the State House. It is made by the President and not by Party. The Party is a front and its only there so the President can pay-off his loyal allies. Its seemingly so, when the NRM-O and NRM CEC are made for his best interest. Not to create a better republic.

The tenth aim which is ‘build a proper defence and security systems’. The Military is at its strongest and used as hired mercenaries in Equatorial Guinea and doing United Nations missions in both Somalia and Central African Republic. Its also the main reason for still the current president. He uses the military, because he doesn’t have the popularity. The Security Systems are fragmented and used against each other. Using military intelligence against the police. There is nothing that is certain and you are boggled at how and when something strike. When a crime will be solved and by who.

The eleventh aim to ‘encourage and sustain collective leadership’ is at best questionable at this day and age. The NRM have clearly forgotten this one. They have maybe never worked for this after 1986. That he has talked against sectarian and tribal leadership is well-known, but his achievement is questionable. Since he hasn’t promoted collective leadership, he has promoted his own leadership and the ones loyalty to him without ambition. It is reason why Vice-President Ssekandi are still there and Prime Minister Rugunda are there. They don’t want to get at the king, but if they get ambition to succeed him. Then they get demoted. Check history and you’ll see this.

The twelfth aim for ‘universal education and public health care’. There many more schools under the NRM. Though they are not well-kept or the up-keep is worth mentioning. The literacy rate has been rising in the three decades of rule, but the school system is far from perfect. Since teachers in the districts has side jobs because of lacking salaries, girls skip schools over lacking pads. That was even promised in the General Election of 2016. Still, the NRM haven’t delivered. They promised UPE, but never totally delivered on that promise.

Health care is a place where people are left to die. That is why MPs are getting treatment abroad, the daughters of the President giving birth in Europe. The Health Care is abysmal, lacking medicine, copy medics, X-Rays not working and awaiting between 2013 to 2018 before buying and putting up a new Cancer-Treatment machine. Only one for the millions of citizens of the Republic. There been a blood-drive, because of lacking blood for treatments in the hospitals. The air-machines has gone empty like in Jinja. The NMS hasn’t been able to buy in needed equipment. The Health Care is something the NRM really haven’t delivered anything to be proud of. They have build some buildings called hospitals, but they cannot treat people’s illness there.

The thirteen aim is about autonomy, but that is delivered from the State House. There has been growing amount of districts 118 if my calculation is right. So there has been changes, but it hasn’t given service delivery. Neither or anything visible changes. It is more district centre and more cronies paid-off making the civil service bloated, but not delivering services to the public. So the NRM has delivered dozens of new district and local government entities, but not that they matter. They only matters to the ones who get a paycheck and who is “running” them. But not for the public.

The fourteenth aim is about taking part of African Union and United Nations, the fifteenth aim was also about following their international standards and laws. In the beginning of the NRM rule, as long as he was a part of the new breed of leadership. It was seemingly important to respect international laws and enact those standards. With time this has withered, as he wants to rule on own accord and not let anyone question his reasoning. Therefore, he has become hostile to foreign interference, the ICC and all other who can question his acts and his use of military in foreign countries. Because of the fear of the repression from foreign entities, the former love-affair has become hatred and that has been shown over time.

The sixteenth aim has been done in some instances, that someone has gotten land and gotten measly awards. The State haven’t made functional programs, but more public givings and sudden awards as part of public display together with honors at liberation celebrations. Not really trying to give funds and such. NRM Historicals of all kinds, NRA soldiers and familes, haven’t been compensated, neither has the losers. They have gotten retaliation. So there are many families in disarray and lost of promises.

The whole republic has seen all the empty promises and the prospects of the Museveni era. He has had 32 years to create a state in his vision. The UPM isn’t that far from the 10 Point Program, that I have also dismantled, actually twice.

This here is another proof of how he promise big, but doesn’t deliver. Don’t be surprised, he is all talking big game, but never showing it on the touchline. He might be in the box, but never score. Peace.

Opinion: Now that the World Bank has new priorities, they will most likely not loan to the pipelines in East Africa!

 

There is certain movements that will strike as more expensive for the East African Community (EAC). This being for the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Government of Kenya (GoK), who has big plans of petroleum pipelines from their oil-fields and to the coast. That being from Turkana to Lamu Port. While the Ugandan oil goes from Hoima to Tanga Port in Tanzania. Both development and industrial projects will have issues with the funding. The World Bank has supported massive infrastructure projects in both countries.

Therefore, for the two counties big development and oil industry, this is giant set-back, since they have to find funding and loans for the pipelines on the open market. Even with higher interests and making the profits of it lesser, than it would have been with a World Bank loan. It would not hurt the pocket as much as it does on the open market. The banks wants more profits themselves and also make sure they are paid-in-full.

With all this in mind. There are speculations, but first. Parts of the self-answering service. Before we look at the reactions in Kenya and Uganda. All of are important, as the state is involved in the licensing and building the pipelines. They are directly into the development and procurement of the pipelines. That is why this is big blow for the administrations and their possible tax-profits on it.

Word Bank Q&A:

Q. How is “upstream” oil and gas defined?

Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas” (World Bank, 2017).

Current projects in our portfolio would continue as planned. However, no new investments in upstream oil and gas would be undertaken after 2019, unless under exceptional circumstances as noted in the decision” (World Bank, 2017).

Kenya Pipeline:

The announcement by the bank, which has significant interests in Kenya’s oil prospecting sector, does not bode well for the country’s anticipated entry into the club of oil producing nations beginning next year. Analysts said they do not expect an immediate reaction to the announcement even as they acknowledged that it takes the shine from oil in the long term” (…) “Locally, the World Bank is offering technical support to the Kenyan government, through the Kenya Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, to prime all stakeholders for commercial oil production and sale. The six-year programme is scheduled to run until February 2021 and involves the World Bank managing a Sh5.2 billion fund set up by investors from Germany, Norway and Britain. The World Bank’s private lending arm, International Finance Corporation, is however directly involved in Kenya’s oil fields, having a 6.83 per cent stake in Africa Oil, the Canadian exploration firm with interests in northern Kenya oil blocks” (Mutegi, 2017)

Uganda Pipeline:

The pipeline, is expected to be completed by the year 2020, when the country is scheduled to start oil production. In fact, Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni and his Tanzanian counterpart recently commissioned the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The two leaders laid mark stones for the crude oil pipeline in Mutukula, Kyotera district and Kabaale in Hoima district. Total E&P Uganda, a subsidiary of French oil giant, Total S.A, is spearheading the construction of the crude oil pipeline on behalf of the joint venture partners. Adewale Fayemi, the general manager, Total E&P Uganda says discussions are ongoing to discuss on the formalities of how the pipeline will be run. Already, an agreement has been reached that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will be run and managed by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) – private pipeline company. This means that a private company will be incorporated with joint venture partners – Tullow Uganda, Cnooc Uganda Ltd and Total E&P Uganda, and the governments of Uganda and Tanzania as shareholders in the company” (Ssekika, 2017)

Certainly, this will put a strain on the projects. They have to deliver another type of arrangement to make sure they get funding and have the funds to pay the added interests the banks wants. The added points on the dollar and the interest-rates will hit state-owned firms and the state itself. Since the pipelines most likely becomes more expensive and will be less profitable.

That the World Bank is pulling out of these projects is all within line of the Paris Accord, as they have professed is the reason. Still, this will make these projects more expensive and make sure they are earning less on it. Unless, the crude-oil prices are going up to a level that makes these investments even more profitable. That is only for time to tell. Since it is costly projects and also sophisticated to build. There is needed lots of expertise combined state planning to achieve the development plans.

This is just the beginning, but the pipelines and these investments are vital for both Kenya and Uganda. As the governments are already borrowing state funds on the possible earnings from the oil reserves in their basins. Therefore, they need to drill and need the petrodollar as quickly as possible. Peace.

Reference:

Mutegi, Mugambi – ‘World Bank dims Turkana oil hopes’ (14.12.2017) link: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-dims-Turkana-oil-hopes/996-4227848-u02v8n/index.html

Ssekika, Edward – ‘East African Crude Oil Pipeline: The Inside Story’ (11.12.2017) link: http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/economy/east-african-crude-oil-pipeline-the-inside-story-details-emerge-of-how-the-crude-oil-pipeline-will-be-financed-managed.html

World Bank – ‘Q&A: The World Bank Group and Upstream Oil and Gas’ (12.12.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/qa-the-world-bank-group-and-upstream-oil-and-gas