Opinion: Afwerki wants to re-write the planned invasion of Tigray

This month the Eritrean President Isias Afwerki had an interview on State-Owned Eri-TV on the 7th February 2021. The broadcast is intended to be a piece to “whitewash” and be “good reasons” for the involvement of Eritrea in the Tigray conflict. As one of the allies of Addis Ababa after the leadership of Mekelle. That is clear that Asmara and Addis had co-operate in time and held meetings to prepare for the warfare in the region. This has been reported on as well.

Afwerki is doing the same bidding as Prime Minister Ahmed Ali Abiy. Who has used same sort of story to validate the attacks. While it has later been proven that the Ethiopian troops suddenly moved across to Eritrean bases. There was also proven reporting from Addis Standard in January 2021 that Amhara regional government and actors was prepared ahead of war. Not like they we’re suddenly ambushed and hadn’t stationed troops ahead of the early November attack by Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Who they are making as the devils here.

Yes, to set the record straight. TPLF have been the tormentor of old, they have been vicious, vindictive and destructive. The TPLF as a government has atrocities and blood on their hands. I been a vocal critic of how they operated as a key part of the Ethiopian Democratic People’s Revolutionary Front (EDPRF) coalition government. However, that does not stop me from attacking the injustice and lies of the present day government (Prosperity Party) and its Eritrean allies. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it. That is how I see the world. So, don’t think I am in favour of TPLF, but I call out lies when I see them.

President Isias Afwerki highlights:

That President Isaias had expressly asked Debretzion, Acting President of the Tigray Region – in the brief meeting in Omhager, why the TPLF was making huge preparations for a senseless war; Against this backdrop, no body imagined that the TPLF would resort to such unprecedented and reckless move to attack the Northern Command of the Ethiopian Defense Forces (EDF) in early November. This was inexplicable and mind boggling but borne out of miscalculation as is often the case with most wars. TPLF plan was to neutralize the 32,000 Contingent – one-third of which were affiliated with the TPLF and topple the Federal Government. Part of this plan was subsequent invasion of Eritrea” (Shabait – ‘Highlights of Interview with President Isaias Afwerki’ 18.02.2021).

We are seeing his playing the same game as the Prosperity Party and PM Abiy have said in the past. They are holding on to the same narrative before the invasion and direct attacks in Tigray. Tigray was already ostracises and been shunned by the Federal Government in the months ahead. They had even called the September election 2020 “unconstitutional”. While the state “suspended” theirs and had started their unconstitutional 6th Year in the House of Federation (HoF). So, it is always rich of them say this.

However, there are more evidence that Afwerki and Abiy is lying about how it started. As these stories doesn’t connect with reporting. Both what Mesfin wrote in December 2020 and what Addis Standard stated in January 2021. That is why I taken passages from there to prove my points.

Eritrean Involvement in Tigray:

Abiy did not disclose to the Ethiopian public and international community that even more federal troops were airlifted into Eritrea following the outbreak of conflict on November 4. In the 48 hours before TPLF’s bombing of Asmara on November 14, local sources counted close to 30 military airplanes flying in thousands of soldiers from Ethiopia. Subsequent flights transported more soldiers into the Eritrean seaports of Massawa and Asseb. The Prime Minister also hid from the world the Eritrean military’s direct involvement in combat along the entire border that Eritrea shares with Tigray regional state as well as inside Tigray. The following information is pieced together from three different sources: first, reliable sources inside the Eritrean Ministry of Defense; second, Eritrean opposition intelligence sources in Sudan and Ethiopia; and finally, anecdotal pieces communicated from friends and relatives, including some academic researchers” (Mesfin Hagos – ‘Eritrea’s Role in Ethiopia’s Conflict and the Fate of Eritrean Refugees in Ethiopia’ 04.12.2020, World Peace Foundation:

Commissioner Abere Adamu said:

Because it is history let me tell you what happened during this time. At the time, Amhara region police and Temesgen [Tiruneh] who was the president of the Amhara Region, already knew that this thing was going to happen, especially TPLF’s preparation, as they were next door to us. Therefore we have already done our homework, and accordingly deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night after we have already completed our preparations” (Addis Standard, 04.01.2021)

As Adamu continues:

““What we have talked about was, because it is now in the past, let me make it clear for you today: what we discussed was that we had communication with those from within; with whom we had close relations, especially with those members of the Mechanized Forces stationed near Humera; we had relations with them and we have already studied how to retrieve the force to come to us if something happened. So when I and Assistant commissioner Biset say “according to what we discussed” we understand what we were saying. So he told me “things are going as we discussed.” What it meant was to make members of the steel-clad mechanized Special Forces to come to us under the protection of our Special Forces, and after they reached us, to commander them to turn back to face the enemy. So he asked me “they are coming, what do I do with them?” so I told him to divert them back face the enemy; he did it. The armored mechanized members that we provided protection and retrieved from there provided protection for our forces and the foot soldiers marched in. You all know what happened next. This is how the war started; this was the day” (Addis Standard, 04.01.2021).

For me as I see it. The reporting on the flights across with troops from Ethiopia into Eritrea tell me it was preplanned ahead of time. You cannot move troops in the blink of an eye and especially not 30 planes in-coordination. Also, the mechanized brigades and soldiers-on-foot in Amhara region as well. Both of these manoeuvrers proves there was underlying intent. Either the TPLF would attack the Northern Command or not. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), Amhara Para-Military (Fano) and Eritrean National Army (ENA) was all prepared ahead of time.

Therefore, the blame-game of TPLF is just a fitting one. Because, to make the previous tenants of power the villains is easy. As they have done so much and caused so much horrific harm in the past. That they can easily be transformed to devious people now too. Even, when the most cunning ones are the one currently in power. That is the reality of it all and Afwerki trying to sell that story. Which the Prosperity Party and Addis has been selling for months. Since that fits them in a glove and gives them a reason. Though, when you look into it. It isn’t that truthful and its a lie. A lie they deserved to be called out for. Especially, when there is such proof of their ways. Peace.

Reference:

Addis Standard – ‘NEWS ANALYSIS: AMHARA REGION POLICE CHIEF REVEALS HOW REGION’S POLICE FORCE GUIDED FEDERAL STEEL-CLAD MECHANIZED FORCES TO JOIN “WAR” IN TIGRAY’ 04.01.2021 link: https://addisstandard.com/news-analysis-amhara-region-police-chief-reveals-how-regions-police-force-guided-federal-steel-clad-mechanized-forces-to-join-war-in-tigray/

Ethiopia: Human Rights League of the Horn of Africa (HRLHA) – HRLHA Strongly Urges the Government of Ethiopia to Resolve the Prisoners’ Demand Soon! (17.02.2021)

Ethiopia: Oromo Political Prisoners Defence Team – Bekele Gerba detained in Torhayloch Hospital (16.02.2021)

After Mr. Bekele Gerba’s lawyers submitted a petition yesterday, the court gave an order for the 2nd time to allow Mr. Bekele to get a medical treatment from a private clinic of his choice. Attached is the court document that shows the court honored his request to get treatment from a private clinic.
Accordingly, Mr. Bekele was supposed to go to Landmark Hospital today in Addis Ababa. The hospital was waiting for Mr. Bekele for more than 2 hours. However, the prison administration said they were given an instruction from a superior order to take Mr. Bekele Gerba to armed forces hospital called Torhayloch.
On their way to the hospital, Mr. Bekele’s private doctors phones were confiscated.
We are getting a report that the Oromo political prisoners private doctors who accompanied Mr. Bekele Gerba to the hospital have been detained in Torhayloch Hospital.
Mr. Bekele’s life is in great danger!

Sudan: Conflict – Flash Update #9 West Darfur As of 16 February 2021 (16.02.2021)

Ethiopia: Ethiopian Multinational Federalists Support Forces (EMFSF) – On the Deteriorating Political Situation in Ethiopia (13.02.2021)

Ethiopa: A “Superior Order” restricts medical and hospital treatment for political prisoners

Today on the 13th February 2021. After my calculation the Oromo Political Prisoners are on their 17th day of hunger strike in Kaliti Prison. There has already been reported of several of the Oromo Political Leaders in critical conditions and very weak as well. That is not shocking, considering how long this hunger strike has lasted and the body can only carry so long before it gives way.

The Oromo Political Prisoners Defence Team have followed the conditions and the treatment the Oromo political prisoners have gotten. They are working on their release, but the state is keeping them behind bars.

They stated this yesterday: “Jails and prisons are full of Oromos, more than any other group in the country. Currently there are more than 50,000 Oromo political prisoners in Ethiopia. In Kaliti alone there are more than 5,000 Oromo political prisoners, constituting 90% of the nation’s entire prisoners” (Oromo Political Prisoners Defence Team, 12.02.2021).

These numbers should shock anyone and be a warning about what the state does to dissidents in the region. When they can arrest and detain such vast numbers. At this scale there is injustice and impunity towards the political active who is not part of the Prosperity Party. These are the ones challenging PP in Oromia and therefore behind bars.

What is even worse is the “Superior Orders” which is blocking their freedom, liberty and ability assemble. The state is also now restricting medical treatment… that should send shock-waves and outrage, as that is a dire need after days of hunger strike.

Medical Update From Kaliti Prison:

Jawar Mohammed et al. doctors have announced today on Oromia Media Network (OMN) that they have halted providing health services to the political prisoners. They explained their decision was because they were not able to treat the prisoners at a private hospital as needed. Per court order, they were given permission to see their private doctor and hospital, yet the prison administration has not honored the court order. The prison administration said a superior order has restricted Mr. Bekele Gerba today from receiving urgent treatment at the hospital of his option. Since the prison administration is not complying with the court order, Jawar Mohammed et al. told their doctors not to come anymore. Dr. Ilili Jemal, one of the private doctors of the prisoners told OMN that from today onwards they are obliged to stop rendering health services to the political prisoners” (Oromo Political Prisoners Defence Team, 12.02.2021).

This shows how far the Federal Government goes. They don’t value the lives of the political prisoners. The enemies of the state. The ones charged and behind bars. Just because they are dissidents and in opposition to the central government in Addis Ababa. That is all it takes and your rights as a citizen is revoked over night. This is why these ones are suffering and not getting the health care they need.

The state even uses a “superior order” to restrict and block doctors from helping the prisoners. That is breaches of human rights and its inhumane. This shouldn’t happen to anyone, but the Prosperity Party clearly have no issues to violate people for their political gains. Peace.

Ethiopia: UNICEF – Children in Tigray in acute need of protection and assistance (12.02.2021)

Home to about 170,000 residents, Shire now hosts at least 52,000 internally displaced people (IDPs), and more arrived on each day of the mission.

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, February 12, 2021 – As more supplies and emergency personnel reach crisis-affected people in Tigray, an incomplete but troubling picture is emerging of severe and ongoing harm to children.

Between February 4 and 7, a UNICEF team accompanied by the Regional Health Bureau Head traveled from Mekelle to the town of Shire in Central Tigray, with six trucks filled with 122 tons of emergency supplies. This was the first UN mission to Shire since the conflict erupted on 4 November 2020.

Home to about 170,000 residents, Shire now hosts at least 52,000 internally displaced people (IDPs), and more arrived on each day of the mission. There was no drinking water, as the town’s water treatment plant is not functioning, so UNICEF and ICRC are trucking water to residents and IDPs. Many IDPs are sheltering at schools, none of which are operational. Conditions at the displacement sites are dire – the few toilets are broken, there are no showers, and there is very little safe water. Many families were separated as they fled, and there were many unaccompanied or separated children among the IDPs.

Many families reported deep psychosocial distress and said they did not feel it was safe to return home, speaking of a persistent and pervasive fear of present and future harm.

The hospital in Shire was partly operational. Two out of four health centers were providing outpatient and maternal services, and one health facility has resumed some vaccinations. Staff have received partial payments of their salaries. Outside the town center, only one of seven rural health facilities assessed was functional; the others had been damaged or looted and staff had fled. Immunizations ground to a halt three months ago and the town’s entire stock of vaccines was damaged due to power cuts. Electricity is restored, but the city still experiences frequent power cuts.

The IDPs said their most urgent need was for food. One assessment conducted by partners found the prevalence of severe acute malnutrition – which is potentially life threatening, especially when combined with diseases such as cholera, diarrhea, or measles – at 2.1 per cent. This is above the World Health Organization’s emergency threshold. The very real risk of disease outbreak, coupled with poor access to water, sanitation, hygiene and health services, rising food insecurity and inflation in food prices, poses grave threats for malnourished children.

The mobile network, internet and banking services were still not operational.

UNICEF has dispatched 655MT of supplies including emergency health kits, therapeutic food and high energy biscuits, and personal protective equipment, and more supplies are en route. As of the end of January, other areas of UNICEF’s emergency response in cooperation with government and other partners in Tigray and neighbouring regions included:

  • Screening over 465,000 children below five years old for malnutrition, and providing lifesaving treatment to over 2,750 of children found to be severely malnourished;
  • Reaching over 137,000 people including refugees, displaced persons and host communities with water supplies and services;
  • Providing over 5,400 adolescent girls and women with dignity kits.

The partial picture emerging of the impact the crisis in Tigray has had on children – and the systems and services they rely on – make clear that children are in acute need of protection and assistance. Crucially, the humanitarian community still needs to get beyond major cities and towns into the rural areas, where most of the population live, in order to have a true picture of needs.

Above all, children must be protected from harm.

Ethiopia: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Permanent Mission to the United Nations – Disinformation campaign against Ethiopia Vs the Reality (12.02.2021)

Opinion: Abiy’s dishonest tale of “Toward a Peaceful Order in the Horn of Africa”

Today, Prime Minister Ahmed Ali Abiy published yet another article defending the Law Enforcement Operation. Just to prove his statements and his views on the matter. As his government and his armies are getting critic and lacklustre behaviour in concern to atrocities and human rights violations there. They are willing to use all means to get his way and that is why his so defensive.

PM Abiy have written before about this and is staunchly defending, as he should, because this is his and he sent the army to Tigray in the early of November 2020. Now we are mid-February and the reports from the region is dire. The amount of Internally Displaced Persons are up to over 2 million and over 60,000 civilians have fled to seek refuge in Sudan. There is unverified reports about casualties, but the only number dropped internationally is about 50,000 people. While there is lack of humanitarian support, media black-out and a dire crisis towards the ones living there. This is self-made crisis, which Abiy stands responsible for. No matter how hard he vilify the enemy. As TPLF have a history and that should be challenged. Nevertheless, today’s crime and atrocities is done on his watch.

Today he wrote: No government can tolerate its soldiers and innocent civilians being ambushed and killed in their dozens, as happened at the hands of the TPLF last autumn. My primary duty as prime minister and commander in chief of the national armed forces, after all, is to protect Ethiopia and its people from internal and external enemies” (Abiy, 11.02.2021).

It is very rich of an government who has deliberately killed civilians demonstrating in Oromia over the years. A government who has without mercy acted with fatal force in Ogaden. Is telling that the TPLF was the final straw. When the same party and state has acted like this and let massacres happening on their watch. It seems that he picked an enemy he wants to annihilate and get rid off without proper procedure, but through combat. That is how it seems to outsider like me. As he didn’t use a similar operation elsewhere. Only towards the party that didn’t want to consolidate into the Prosperity Party from the previous coalition. Very striking right?

Now come the puff piece words: “Our operations in Tigray were designed to restore peace and order quickly. In this, we succeeded, but the suffering and deaths that occurred despite our best efforts have caused much distress for me personally as well as for all peace-loving people here and abroad. Ending the suffering in Tigray and around the country is now my highest priority. This is why I am calling for the United Nations and international relief agencies to work with my government so that we can, together, deliver effective relief to all in Tigray who need it” (Abiy, 11.02.2021).

You bring in and prepare mechanical forces ahead of it. You order forces into Eritrean soil to attack on two sides of the regions. While claiming the TPLF was first to start the war. Also, the promise of quick and swift action is clearly not being served. As the conflict is continuing and there is persistent battles across the Region. The use of Eritrean Army and Amhara Para-Military (Fano) also shows are more dire need to revenge and avenge the fallen of the past. Not only restore “law and order” as it seems more like a policing operation. While this has been open warfare 4 months and the Prime Minister proclaimed victory already on the 29th November 2020. So, his three months later and not yet finalized it. As his troops and allies are still there violating the peace.

Just yesterday the International Red Cross said 80% of the public or population in Tigray wasn’t getting their needs met and humanitarian operations are not still working. There been a few small signs of progress, while there been destruction of two refugee camps and huge amount of devastation in the region. Which we cannot assess or understand the total damage done by the conflict. So, his wording is nice, but the reality is so much more brutal.

He continues: “My government is also prepared to assist community leaders in Tigray who are dedicated to peace. Indeed, we are already reaching out to them. The international community understood what the TPLF was. Many had condemned its ethnic-based violence. Sadly, some were ready to turn a blind eye to TPLF torture, disappearances, and extrajudicial killings. Without the TPLF, it was said, Ethiopia risked fragmenting along ethnic lines, like Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Ethiopia’s collapse, the argument went, would usher in chaos across the Horn of Africa. Common sense tells us that a regime based on ethnic division cannot last; but, as the saying goes, common sense is not always common. Fortunately, human societies can tolerate racial, ethnic, and religious violence for only so long” (Abiy, 11.02.2021).

When he says this… we are supposed to forget how he and the House of Federation made the September 2020 election deemed illegal. How the Federal Government ceased funding to it and also stopped also movement and aid towards Tigray before the warfare last year. So, it is unique that he wants to work with community leaders. When the elected ones are deemed unfit and gone to war at. Also, installed his own interim local regional government in its stead. It seems like it is cool with the violence he supporters and orders, but all the TPLF was directly bad. Yes, the ills of the past that TPLF should be answered for, but this isn’t the way out. Not if you want legitimacy over it as well.

What is also striking, we are supposed to forget the violence, extra-judicial killings of his government in other regions, which is prevalent in Benishangul-Gumuz, Ogadaen, Oromia and in the Afar region. It is not like Tigray is a lonely incident and the only place it is happening. So, his sense isn’t that common, when all those other deaths are water under he bridge. He accepts that and thrives on the bloodshed elsewhere, but only went to war in Tigray. That seems insincere here and that there is most likely alternative motives to do so.

He also states: The 2018 vote moved the country in a new and inclusive direction. The political party I now lead is the first in Ethiopia that is not based on race, religion, or ethnicity” (Abiy, 11.02.2021). Well, here the Prime Minister is lying, as we are supposed to forget the CUD who became the Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ), which was formed in 2008. This political party had members from Oromos, Amharas, Tigrayans, Somalis, and Afaris. So, UDJ was before the PP and this PM. His a decade late to this party and his coalition EPRDF have arrested and been targeted. Therefore, him speaking of inclusivity. Maybe, he should allow this Party to co-exists if he believes in this? They didn’t allow their leaders to be candidate in the previous election in 2015? Will that change or is all the political prisoners of Oromia a sign of what’s ahead of the Elections in 2021?

That’s why its arrogant that you are saying this: “An Ethiopia free of the TPLF will champion peace and inclusive development. Internally, our “New Ethiopia” will be based on equality among all of our constituent groups, including the suffering people of Tigray. Externally, we will act in a way that recognises that our national interests are inseparably linked to those of our neighbours” (Abiy, 11.02.2021).

I do not believe this statement from the Prime Minister. There is enough lacking development and freedom in the Republic. If there was more peace and justice in Oromia. We could maybe differ, but when people are going-on hunger-strike for close two weeks to get free from prompt-up charges. So, the “New Ethiopia” is more of the “old Ethiopia” with a new public relations team and a warlord as head of state.

He finish with: “Only an Ethiopia at peace, with a government bound by humane norms of conduct, can play a constructive role across the Horn of Africa and beyond. We are determined to work with our neighbours and the international community to deliver on this promise” (Abiy, 11.02.2021).

Yes, everyone in their right mind wishes that Ethiopia is at peace. However, as long as the government is violating citizen’s rights, blocking them from assembling and participating freely. There will be no true peace in the Republic. It will be a fake peace, as the opposition are targeted and behind bars. If not they are blocked from participating in an election. So, that the Prosperity Party can reign supreme Post-2021.

I know that Abiy will work with Asmara, Djibouti, Nairobi and Mogadishu, but creating enemies in Khartoum and Mekelle. That is because of the actions of the government of Abiy. He is using force and armed invasions there. This is why it will not be peace, but war. A war that he has started and his prolonging.

Abiy isn’t a man of peace, but of war. His word may be of peace, but his actions is of war. That is why his a warlord. Peace.

Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions: Continued clashes on Sudanese territory

It started with new skirmishes in December 2020. When there was two times skirmishes between the Sudanese and Ethiopian troops. There was even Amhara Para-Military (Fano) involved in attacks on Sudanese soil. Therefore, it seemed deliberate from the Ethiopian side to attack border-points and venture into the Al-Fashaqa region.

Now, the last 48 hours there been reported of two more incidents. First yesterday on the 9th February 2021 one more Ethiopian Soldier died inside Sudanese territory. Today on the 10th February 2021 there been reports of 5 Ethiopian Soldiers killed and one Sudanese Soldiers on Sudanese territory. It seems more like a steady planned attacks from the Ethiopian side. As the Sudanese has re-established and sent brigades to control this border towards the Tigray Region.

They have now been doing this since the 13th December 2020. It isn’t one rare incident where one soldier went astray and got lost on a adventure close to the Sudanese border. No, this has happened on a steady occurrence since then. That should strike a warning. It should also make you wonder why they are trespassing and using violent means across the borders. If the Ethiopian state have plan or even a military operation to be extended from the Law Enforcement Operation, which it started on the 4th November 2020. Since they already moved several of forces to the Northern Ethiopia for that reason alone.

That is why you can start to imagine that the leaders, the commanders-in-chief had the idea of taking more land to be greater and more powerful by doing it to someone who wasn’t prepared for the invasion. The Sudanese in transition after Al-Bashir and having erratic protests would be a fitting target for a foreign invasion. That is maybe why Prime Minister Abiy saw a reason to get back the Al-Fashaqa Region from Sudan. So, that he could access and annex a valuable farmland.

We should wonder why they are doing this and ordering such skirmishes. You can also ask yourself what it is to gain to do this. The Ethiopian government already asked to calm down and stop their operation in Tigray. While they are escalating here, which is creating a bigger international crisis. As they making enemies of their neighbours, which they are so supposed to be negotiating agreements in concern of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Yes, Ethiopia is a sovereign, but needs allies to get best deal as possible in concern to share the Nile water. Therefore, making neighbours in combat-mode. They are most likely not friendly or sharing of things with mutual interests. As they are remembering who shot at them last and it just happened to Ethiopian army.

If Abiy and his Prosperity Party thinks this is the way to get more friends. I hate to say, but you make more enemies. As you attack and try to invade other people’s land. That will end hostile and will be fatal. Just like the recent two days has proven. This sort of play will end up in no good and there is no positive silver lining. There is only death. Just like all wars, but that is what a war-lord is promoting.

A warlord that is happy to create more havoc and political crisis. Maybe he will invite Prime Minister Hamdok for another short meeting in Addis Ababa before sending him packing without any solution. Also, order a new group to attack Sudan after that meeting. Because that happened in December and could easily happened again.

It seems like this will not be over soon. The Republic’s have already started and the war-drums are hit. However, we still have to hope that peace will conquer this. Nevertheless, the warlord of Addis seems to be striking the drums, again and again. Peace.