Kenya: Monetary Policy Committee Meeting (29.05.2017)

Kenya: Monetary Policy Committee Meeting (27.03.2017)

Press Release: EY states that African Economies are staying the Course, Despite a Relative Economic Slow Down (25.07.2016)

US remains the leading investor into Africa.

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, July 25, 2016/APO/ —

• Africa one of the only two regions in the world achieving growth in FDI project numbers over 2015
• Seven percent rise in FDI projects for Africa
• East Africa the biggest gainer, while other key economies recover ground
• US remains the leading investor into Africa

According to EY’s (EY.com) 2016 Africa attractiveness program 2016, Staying the course, despite a relative slow down, Sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the fastest growing regions in the world. This is reflected in the foreign direct investment (FDI) levels in 2015, where FDI project numbers increased by seven percent. Although, the capital value of projects was down year-on-year — from US$88.5b in 2014 to US$71.3b in 2015 — this was still higher than the 2010–2014 average of US$68b. Similarly, jobs created were down year-on-year, but, again ahead of the average for 2010–2014.

Ajen Sita, Africa Chief Executive Officer at EY, comments, “Over the past year, global markets have experienced unprecedented volatility. We’ve witnessed the collapse of commodity prices and a number of currencies across Africa, and with reference to the two largest markets, starting with South Africa, we saw GDP growth decline sharply to below one percent and the country averting a credit ratings downgrade; in Nigeria, the slowdown in that economy was impacted further by the decline in the oil price and currency devaluation pressure.”

Sita adds, “The reality is that economic growth across the region is likely to remain slower in coming years than it has been over the past 10 to 15 years, and the main reasons for a relative slowdown are not unique to Africa. In fact, Africa was one of the only two regions in the world in which there was growth in FDI project levels over the past year.”

East Africa closes the FDI gap, with Kenya a big gainer

In 2015, East Africa recorded its highest share of FDI across Africa, achieving 26.3% of total projects. Southern Africa remained the largest investment region on the continent, although projects were down 11.6% from 2014 levels. The West Africa region saw a rebound in FDI projects by 16.2%, and interestingly in 2015, the region became the leading recipient of capital investment on the continent, outpacing Southern Africa.

North Africa experienced 8.5% year-on-year growth in FDI projects. Furthermore, while projects are increasing in North Africa, they are increasing at a much faster rate in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Michael Lalor, EY’s Africa Business Center Leader, adds, “In a context of heightened concerns about economic and political risk across the continent, FDI flows remain robust, and in line with levels we have seen over the past five years. A key factor here is the structural shift in FDI — from a high concentration of source countries and destination markets and sectors, to a far more diverse FDI landscape. As a result, risks and opportunities are being spread much wider, and there is no longer an overdependence on a limited group of investors or sectors to drive FDI performance.”

Historical investors gain strength, new investors emerge

The US retained its position in 2015, as the largest investor in the continent, with 96 investment projects valued at US$6.9b. During 2015, traditional investors such as the UK and France, as well as the UAE and India, also showed renewed interest in Africa.

Investors diversify focus across sectors

Over the past decade, there has been a shift in sector focus in FDI from extractive to consumer-facing industries. Mining and metals, coal, oil and natural gas, which were previously the key sectors attracting major FDI flows, have given way to consumer products and retail (CPR), financial services and technology, media and telecommunications (TMT), accounting for 44.7% of FDI projects in 2015. In 2015, further evidence of sector diversification came through, with business services, automotive, cleantech and life sciences all rising in significance and becoming the likely “next wave” for investors.

Striking a balance between growth, profitability and managing risk

Sita concludes, “Given the growth potential in and relative underdevelopment of many African markets, the primary focus for many companies over the past few years has been on entering new markets, capturing market share and driving revenue growth. A combination of factors — including tightening economic conditions, increasingly well-informed consumers and citizens, intensifying competition, a heightened sense of global geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting priorities from global or regional HQ — is now driving a change in focus toward striking a greater balance between growth, profitability and risk management.”

Opinion: Mzee sounding like a drunken uncle proclaiming peace for Palestine while the PM Netanyahu laughed and grinned while listening to him at Entebbe! (transcripted major parts of it)

There isn’t every day the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commemorates fallen soldiers and hostages abroad. So, when he does President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni who is the host and the man honoring his fellow Executive, should by all means not embarrass himself or anybody else. Though certain quotes from this speech is to nice not to be told to the world; they need to be addressed. Something to honor the words from the long-serving President Museveni, who must have taken a few Nile Brews before jumping on stage after PM Netanyahu.

I have described much of the speech, until the ending when it was nonsense on unprecedented levels, the vanish of wise words together with the mixing of certain aspects of Israeli culture and scripture, the running of Palestine and the negotiations between Palestinian and Jewish people, where obvious, even I won’t discuss or try to comply with a valid argument for either groups for their arguments for their historical claim to set-area or set-space as the unbalanced and grand scale of the long-term conflict between the two parties are too hectic to touch. But please enjoy the madness from President Museveni. Certainly Don Wanyama must be shaking his hand in the State House, wondering if he needs to order a teleprompter for President Museveni.

Here is what I cared for transcript of the speech:      

First: “wanted to thanks for making this sad story 40 years ago, into yet another instrument of bonding the holy land Israel-Palestine with the heartland of Uganda. In particular, Africa in general”

Secondly: “The sad event 40 years ago turned into another bond linking Palestine to Africa” (…) “I say this is yet another bond between Africa and Palestine, because there we’re earlier bonding events. The Story of Joseph and Moses between 1886 B.C. and 1446 B.C. You remember that story? The Story of Joseph, it was also a sad story, but it also get the bond. Just like this one here. At the end of the story of baby Jesus, being hidden in Egypt, I don’t know which year. Because they say: He was hidden there, in the book of Matthew chapter two verses 13-23. He was hidden there from Herrod, Herrod, Herrod was a bad gentleman or something like that. Not my people here wrote 4 AD, but I got reluctant to read it, because how could it be 4 AD, when you are just being born; there must be something wrong, I need to do more research on this here, but the story and the book of Matthew says: say that baby Jesus was hidden in Egypt from Herrod, so that is another bond, another bond between Africa and Palestine, but born out of sad circumstances”

Third: “Then there is the famous story Queen of Sheeba, which is found in the book of Kings Chapter 10 Verses 1-13, the Entebbe rescue operation of 1976 is therefore, yet another bond between the two areas growing out of adversity”.

Fourth: “As you all know, our movement is a liberation movement, liberation movement only fight only, for just causes and never use terrorist methods. Therefore for us when it comes to which war to fight, it is both about the cause and the method. We must fight for a just cause, but also use civilized methods in fighting, even if a fighter has a just cause to fight for, he or she should distil his or her methods. In discriminate use in use of violence is criminal, why target civilians and non-combatants. Even soldiers when they are not armed should not be attacked, that’s our, our doctrine. Even if our enemy are not armed, we never attack him. That’s our doctrine. We are a liberation movement, we use violence to fight for the cause of Africa, but it is disciplined and purposeful violence not in discriminate violence. It is cowardice and criminal to do so. Targeting non-combatants, some people tried to confuse freedom fighters fighting with terrorism. No, you can be a freedom fighter without being a terrorist. Targeting non-combatants max the boundary between freedom fighters and terrorist. Even when the cause is justified”

Fifth: “In the broader matter of the Israel-Palestine area, we in Uganda are guided by the bible. In Chapter 11 of the book of Genesis Verse 31: Abraham came from Uri, don’t know how to pronounce it, it is written U R, I don’t know how to pronounce it, but I pronounce it in our language URI, Mesopotamia and settled in Harrang, Canaan, this is estimated for being in the year of 2081 B.C. There we’re other tribes in that area, such as the Caanites, Ca-na, Canasites, Cardemonites, what is not mention there in the bible”.

Sixth: “Besides the story of the stories of two wives of Abraham, than I pronounced him in our language, Shara and Hagara, I don’t know how you pronounce it the name in your language, but I am pronounce it in my language. When it is called Shara, in my language and the other one is called Hagara. Therefore we in Uganda cannot accept the bigotry that holds, that either of you does not belong to that area. When I meet my friend the Arabs, our the Iranians, this is what I tell them. The other time I, I went to Iran, then there was the, the man who was president of the that time, the one who was the president before this one. The one who is there now, Huh? Bokanamoto? Whaaat?” – ‘People answer, he says loud’ “Ahmadinejad”. Ahmadinejad, and I, I told him about this story, I said because he was saying that the Jews don’t belong to the Middle East, that they came from Europe. That what he was telling me, I said no, but a, I read the bible and here they are, the Jews are here, I showed it to you. I showed him where to, where it was talked about. I also asked him something, which he didn’t know at all, in the bible its talks about the Persians and the Mediants. So I asked him, Ahmadinejad where are the Medians, ‘we now know the Persians are you, are yourselves, but where are the Medians?’ He didn’t know, he didn’t know, he didn’t know the, nobody there knew. So they started asking each other: ‘who? Bodian? Bodian?’ They went on and got a very old man from the university. He the one who came and said: ‘oh, the Medians something something’, I could see that in some of the some of the situations there is a lot of ignorance. A lot of ignorance, and a so I normally tell my Arab friends and a our Iranian friends, that you are all you are all mentioned in the bible”.

Seventh: “The Story of Shara and Hagara, the book of Genesis, the two woman, in the book of Genesis Chapter 1 and Verse 9-13. Incidentally, you need to know, these Ugandans, doesn’t know that you are not Christians. Haha. They don’t know. They think you are Christian. Hahaha, but let them know that you are the grandchildren of Ibrahim and all that, so they that, they assume you are Christian. They don’t even know the Christian are here, I think the Priests are here, the Priest must be fully, the always talking about you, but they think you are Christians. They don’t know that you are, you are not Christian”.

Eight: “That Jews came from Shara and Arabs came from Hagara, therefore, we in Uganda cannot accept the bigotry that told the either of you as I have already said, that does not belong to that area. The Romans upset the equilibrium by dispassing the Jews in the year 66 AD. There after the Jews suffered endless privations, endless sufferings being victims, all sorts of hoodlums, such as Hitler and until they founding of the state of Israel 1948. That was what the Prime Minister was saying here. The Jewish leaders, why is it the avoiding the British nonsense, the British friends are for, sometimes are for, all nonsensical actions, the Jewish leaders, why is there avoiding the British nonsense? Proposing to bring you to Uganda because you have no historical claim here! This was just nonsense, there was this character called Balfour, Balfour something like that, there was a character called Balfour. I don’t know how they pronounce his name, but that gentleman 2000s something creation something that, and they fellow was talking about Uganda. As the home of the Jews, you can see how these fellows are really not serious. Now, fortunately the Jewish leaders rejected that nonsense, that rubbish! We have no historical claim on Uganda, we came from Palestine and want to go back! Those Jewish leaders where very very clever, otherwise we would be fighting you now. This man was called Balfour, that gentleman, that he was foreign minister, when you are so ignorant? Eh? You went to where you had a historical claim, Palestine, therefore rationally, historically and legitimately, the two of you belong to that area, the only way for you and for the world is for the two of you to agree. To live side by side, in two states, one Jewish state and the another one Arab in Peace and with recognized borders. I know there are some people who try to, you know western, waste a lot of time, these international committees, that is why sometimes when I go there I sleep, cause it helps me to survive. The meetings are a lot of energy expended on saying that Palestine is like South Africa. Palestine’s is not like South Africa. South Africa are now trying to say Mandela, the Whites, the South Africa, eeh! Non-Racial state, South Africa, but that is a difference story, cannot be equated, well I have never mediated in the issue of the Palestine. But if you invited me, there be very clear ideas and short time. Because the issues are very clear, a lot of times has been lost, a lot of trouble have been picket up, but I don’t think or do not see any other way. Because they spend some time on the right of the return of the refugees and all that other, but this is a not a, one day if they invite me, I would give them my views, by the time they Israel’s arrested the hostages, in 1976, we had been fighting Idi Amin for Six Years, we had no pause to Amin, right from the beginning, because as the issues, we knew that Amin would head in the wrong direction. It is actually some of the Western countries that we’re supporting the Idi Amin. Therefore Amin’s hobnobbing with the terrorist was a crime in itself. Fortunately his illiterate army had no discipline to deploy properly. Otherwise it would been impossible for the light armed rescue force successfully extracting the hostages. Amin was wrong keep the hostages and the Israelis we’re right to use the incapacity of the army rescue the innocent hostages. Terrorist methods are wrong and necessary complicating factor, even when the cause is just. I salute the moment of the memory of those who died on that occasion on the account, the cascade of mistakes by the different actors, I praise the Lord for the lives those that we’re rescued. Forty Years from the sad events of the 1976 that brought the bonding and adversity, should be time into opportunity”.

Nineth: The Constant hostility by neighbors, Israel has developed high technology center the huge and increasing populace continent of 1.25 billion people today, 980 million who live in Sub-Sahara Africa through new futurairy arrangements can take advantage of those that difficult achievement for rapid growth. Is why Israelis should come and invest in Africa, trade between Israel and Africa, and third party markets is also potentially beneficial”.

Today is not a day to readdress the speech and transcript, as just transcription of it is enough of honor for this speech. The ones that are shocked of this forgets that President Museveni is getting older and think he is the wise-man, the elder with advice not only the funny that even Arsen Ostrovsky wonder where he could pick it up?

The issues is the ways he is rising the issues through his mind, the way the ability of the arguments, the simplistic and character of the whole memorial. As the historical facts and fiction is mended together without any consideration, the bible are mixed into the stew of Entebbe raid of 1976, the establishment of the state, the Balfour agenda of early 1900s when he proposed to give way for the Jewish people to settle in Uganda. Even Hitler who was a hoodlum today, apparently, even had at one point ideas to send them to Madagascar, which was the only African point missing from this speech. But, that is a minor flaw in the other dismay of village attitude and elderly wisdom, while he cannot see the difference between Israel and Palestine, when he has the Prime Minister of Israel, where the Israel Defense Force sent a little group to free hostages in 1976. The other fractions of ages, dates and even tribes in Canaan proves that it was good he became a rebel and a politician and not Pastor, as he has claimed he had at one point to be.

That he had to explain at the Memorial of the Terrorist action had to explain the difference between terrorism and liberation, proves that he have at any point to legitimize his own position and the rule of the Movement. As that was at one point a cornerstone of the speech. I was thinking at one point he would pin the difference between a British Enclave and todays Ugandan Republic, because of the foolish British people and their interests; but that did not pop-up in his mind today.

The speech was to little power and fitted the function, the age is really bearing on Museveni, people we’re smirking and laughing, while he was serious and looked rattled, most of unprepared and unsecure about the subject of the day. The tone and the placement of the ‘facts’ and opinions we’re not making much sense. The ability of keeping the crowd and being interesting is something have had, but now the age have captured the man, even some was sleeping and other murmuring. The best news was that a Israeli radio turned off the broadcast after a while as the speech was such nonsense they rather send something else then what a foreign president we’re speaking about the Israeli mission and respecting the Jewish historical claim to the ‘Palestine’.

This one is the Mugabe-Moment of President Museveni, I am soon seeing him falling in Parliament and also struggling in public. That is to come, as this shows his weakness, as the age is coming and visible. Get the man a teleprompter; teach him the words he is unsure of, isn’t that why he has a 100 Presidential Advisors. Where they can also has their own press-team under the Prime Minster and the State House. Peace.

Press Release: Kenya’s Economy Strong in a Challenging Global Environment, says World Bank (31.03.2016)

NAIROBI, March 31, 2016—Kenya’s economy is projected to grow at 5.9% in 2016, recording an improvement over the 5.6% estimated for 2015, says a new World Bank Group economic report released today. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to improve further to 6% in 2017.

The Kenya Economic Update (KEU): Kazi ni Kazi: Informality Should Not Be Normal attributes the positive outlook to low oil prices, good agriculture performance, supportive monetary policy, and ongoing infrastructure investments. Kenya experienced strong economic performance in 2015, and has exceeded the average growth for Sub Saharan Africa countries consistently since 2009, the report adds.

The KEU reviews Kenya’s economic performance in the context of three global factors which have been discussed for some time, and are now in full force. These include: industrialized countries’ monetary policy adjustment; the end of the commodity price boom, and the rebalancing of Chinese economy. The report says that the interaction between these global factors with domestic policy and conditions will determine Kenya’s growth in the near term.

“The prevailing global conditions call for a more vigilant policy stance which is supportive of growth,” said Diarietou Gaye, World Bank Country Director for Kenya

According to the report, Kenya’s economy remains vulnerable to domestic risks that could moderate the growth prospects. These include: first, the possibility that investors could defer investment decisions until after the elections; second, that election related expenditure could result to a cut back in infrastructure spending, and third, security remains a threat, not just in Kenya but globally. Finally, changes in monetary policy in industrialized countries could trigger volatility in financial markets putting the currency under pressure.

The KEU, whose special focus is on jobs notes that Kenya is creating more jobs now, but mainly in the informal sector. In the next ten years, nine million youth will enter the labor market, a majority will continue to find jobs in the informal sector, the report adds.

“Kenya is not short of jobs; it is short of high productivity jobs,” said Jane Kiringai, the Bank’s Senior Country Economist for Kenya and the lead author of the report. “To increase productivity of jobs in the informal sector, policy interventions could be geared towards increasing access to broad skills beyond formal education, creating linkages between formal and informal firms, and helping small scale firms enter local and global value chains.”

To create more and better jobs, it is also imperative to reduce the cost of doing business which is necessary for a robust private sector, the report adds.

2016/169/AFR: World Bank Group unveils $16 Billion Africa Climate Business Plan to Tackle Urgent Climate Challenges (24.11.2015)

One third of funds expected to come from Bank’s fund for the poorest countries

WASHINGTON, November 24, 2015—The World Bank Group today unveiled a new plan that calls for $16 billion in funding to help African people and countries adapt to climate change and build up the continent’s resilience to climate shocks.

Titled Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development, the Africa Climate Business Plan will be presented at COP21, the global climate talks in Paris, on November 30. It lays out measures to boost the resilience of the continent’s assets – its people, land, water, and cities – as well as other moves including boosting renewable energy and strengthening early warning systems.

“Sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate shocks, and our research shows that could have far-ranging impact — on everything from child stunting and malaria to food price increases and droughts,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.  “This plan identifies concrete steps that African governments can take to ensure that their countries will not lose hard-won gains in economic growth and poverty reduction, and they can offer some protection from climate change.”

Per current estimates, the plan says that the region requires $5-10 billion per year to adapt to global warming of 2°C.

The World Bank and the United Nations Environment Programme estimate that the cost of managing climate resilience will continue to rise to $20-50 billion by mid-century, and closer to $100 billion in the event of a 4°C warming.

Of the $16.1 billion that the ambitious plan proposes for fast-tracking climate adaptation, some $5.7 billion is expected from the International Development Association (IDA), the arm of the World Bank Group that supports the poorest countries. About $2.2 billion is expected from various climate finance instruments, $2.0 billion from others in the development community, $3.5 billion from the private sector, and $0.7 billion from domestic sources, with an additional $2.0 billion needed to deliver on the plan.

“The Africa Climate Business Plan spells out a clear path to invest in the continent’s urgent climate needs and to fast-track the required climate finance to ensure millions of people are protected from sliding into extreme poverty,” explains Makhtar Diop, World Bank Group Vice President for Africa. “While adapting to climate change and mobilizing the necessary resources remain an enormous challenge, the plan represents a critical opportunity to support a priority set of climate-resilient initiatives in Africa.”

The plan will boost the region’s ability to adapt to a changing climate while reducing greenhouse emissions, focusing on a number of concrete actions. It identifies a dozen priority areas for action that will enhance Africa’s capacity to adapt to the adverse consequences of climate variation and change.

The first area for action aims to boost the resilience of the continent’s assets. These comprise natural capital (landscapes, forests, agricultural land, inland water bodies, oceans); physical capital (cities, transport infrastructure, physical assets in coastal areas); and human and social capital (where efforts should include improving social protection for the people most vulnerable to climate shocks, and addressing climate-related drivers of migration).

The second area for action focuses on powering resilience, including opportunities for scaling up low-carbon energy sources. In addition to helping mitigate climate change, these activities offer considerable resilience benefits, as societies with inadequate access to energy are also more vulnerable to climate shocks.

And the third area for action will enable resilience by providing essential data, information and decision-making tools for climate-resilient development across sectors. This includes strengthening hydro-met systems at the regional and country levels, and building capacity to plan and design climate-resilient investments.

“The plan is a ‘win-win’ for all especially the people in Africa who have to adapt to climate change and work to mitigate its impacts,” said Jamal Saghir, the World Bank’s Senior Regional Adviser for Africa. “We look forward to working with African governments and development partners, including the private sector, to move this plan forward and deliver climate smart development.”

The Africa Climate Business Plan reflects contributions and inputs from a wide variety of partners with whom the Bank is already collaborating on the ground, in a coordinated effort to increase Africa’s resilience to climate variability and change. The plan aims to help raise awareness and accelerate resource mobilization for the region’s critical climate-resilience and low-carbon initiatives.

The plan warns that unless decisive action is taken, climate variability and change could seriously jeopardize the region’s hard-won development gains and its aspirations for further growth and poverty reduction. And it comes in the wake of Bank analysis which indicates climate change could push up to 43 million more Africans into poverty by 2030.

Press Release: Africa Faces the Challenge of Sustaining Growth amid Weak Global Conditions (05.10.2015)

WASHINGTON, October 5, 2015— Sub-Saharan Africa countries are continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace, due to a more challenging economic environment. Growth will slow in 2015 to 3.7 percent from 4.6 percent in 2014, reaching the lowest growth rate since 2009, according to new World Bank projections.

These latest figures are outlined in the World Bank’s new Africa’s Pulse, the twice-yearly analysis of economic trends and the latest data on the continent. The 2015 forecast remains below the robust 6.5 percent growth in GDP which the region sustained in 2003-2008, and drags below the 4.5 percent growth following the global financial crisis in 2009-2014. Overall, growth in the region is projected to pick up to 4.4 percent in 2016, and further strengthen to 4.8 percent in 2017.

Sharp drops in the price of oil and other commodities have brought on the recent weakness in growth. Other external factors such as China’s economic slowdown and tightening global financial conditions weigh on Africa’s economic performance, according to Africa’s Pulse. Compounding these factors, bottlenecks in supplying electricity in many African countries hampered economic growth in 2015.

“The end of the commodity super-cycle poses an opportunity for African countries to reinvigorate their reform efforts and thereby transform their economies and diversify sources of growth. Implementing the right policies to boost agricultural productivity, and reduce electricity costs while expanding access, will improve competitiveness and support the growth of light manufacturing,” says Makhtar Diop, World Bank Vice President for Africa.

According to Africa’s Pulse, several countries are continuing to post robust growth. Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Rwanda and Tanzania are expected to sustain growth at around 7 percent or more per year in 2015-17, spurred by investments in energy and transport, consumer spending and investment in the natural resources sector.

Gains in Poverty Reduction

Africa’s Pulse found that progress in reducing income poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa has been occurring faster than previously thought. According to World Bank estimates poverty in Africa declined from 56 percent in 1990 to 43 percent in 2012. At the same time, Africa’s population saw progress in all dimensions of well-being, particularly in health (maternal mortality, under-5 mortality) and primary school enrollment, where the gender gap shrank.

Yet African countries continue to face a stubbornly high birth rate, which has limited the impact of the past two decades of sustained economic growth on reducing the overall number of poor. Countries still lag behind those in other regions in making progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). For example, Africa will not meet the MDG of halving the share of population living in poverty between 1990 and 2015.

Weaker Commodity Prices

Sub-Saharan Africa’s rich natural resources have made it a net exporter of fuel, minerals and metals, and agricultural commodities. These commodities account for nearly three-fourths of the region’s goods exports. Robust supplies and lower global demand have accounted for the decline of commodity prices across the board. For instance, the drop in the prices of natural gas, iron ore, and coffee exceeded 25 percent since June 2014, according to the report.

Africa’s Pulse notes that overall decline in growth in the region is nuanced and the factors hampering growth vary among countries. In the region’s commodity exporters—especially oil-producers such as Angola, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria, as well as producers of minerals and metals such as Botswana and Mauritania, the drop in prices is negatively affecting growth. In Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia, domestic factors such as electricity supply constraints are further stemming growth. In Burundi and South Sudan threats from political instability and social tensions are taking an economic and social toll.

Fiscal deficits across the region are now larger than they were at the onset of the global financial crisis, the report finds. Rising wage bills and lower revenues, especially among oil-producers, led to a widening of fiscal deficits. In some countries, the deficit was driven by large infrastructure expenditures. Reflecting the widening fiscal deficits in the region, government debt continued to rise in many countries. While debt-to-GDP ratios appear to be manageable in most countries, a few countries are seeing a worrisome jump in this ratio.

“The dramatic, ongoing drop in commodity prices has put pressure on rising fiscal deficits, adding to the challenge in countries with depleted policy buffers,” says Punam Chuhan-Pole, Acting Chief Economist, World Bank Africa and the report’s author. “To withstand new shocks, governments in the region should improve the efficiency of public expenditures, such as prioritizing key investments, and strengthen tax administration to create fiscal space in their budgets.”

Moving Forward

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will be repeatedly tested as new shocks occur in the global economic environment, underscoring the need for Governments to embark on structural reforms to alleviate domestic impediments to growth, the report notes. Investments in new energy capacity, attention to drought and its effects on hydropower, reform of state-owned distribution companies, and renewed focus on encouraging private investment will help build resiliency in the power sector. Governments can boost revenues through taxes and improved tax compliance. Complementing these efforts, governments can improve the efficiency of public expenditures to create fiscal space in their budget.

Statement By H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni President of Uganda as the Co-Chair of the Summit for the Adoption of the Post-2015 Development Agenda at the U.N. (25.09.2015)

At UN Summit for the Adoption of the Post-2015 Development Agenda

New York 25 September, 2015

Your Excellencies Heads of State and Government,
Your Excellency Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Prime Minister of Denmark and co-chair of the Summit,
Mr. Secretary-General,
President of the General Assembly,
Honourable Ministers,
Distinguished participants,
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I am pleased to co-chair this important Summit as we gather as a community of nations to adopt a new development agenda that will guide our development efforts for the next 15 years.

This historic Summit is the culmination of months of tireless efforts and unprecedented commitment by Member States and stakeholders to formulate a universal, inclusive and transformative development agenda.

I would like to pay tribute to H.E. Sam Kutesa for his leadership and accomplishments as President of the 69th Session of the General Assembly and thank all of you for supporting Uganda in that responsibility.
I also congratulate and convey appreciation to the President of the 70th Session, H.E. Mogens Lykketoft and the Secretary-General, H.E. Ban Ki-moon for their leadership.
Today heralds the dawn of a new era in our collective efforts towards eradicating poverty, improving livelihoods of people everywhere, transforming economies and protecting our planet.

Together, we are sending a powerful message to people in every village, every city and every nation worldwide ─ that we are committed to taking bold steps to change their lives, for the better.

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which we will adopt today, is ambitious in its scope and breadth. In the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development are addressed in an integrated way. The agenda also carries forward the unfinished business of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Over the last fifteen years, we have attained significant achievements through implementing the MDGs. Globally, more than one billion people have been lifted from extreme poverty and improvements have been made in access to education, health, water and sanitation, advancing gender equality and women’s empowerment.

In Uganda, we have been able to reduce the percentage of people living in extreme poverty from 56% in 2000 to 19% currently. We have also attained universal primary education, promoted gender equality and empowerment of women and continue to reduce child and maternal mortality. From our experience, it has been clear that to sustainably achieve the MDGs we must have socio-economic transformation.

It is, therefore, refreshing that in the successor framework, the SDGs, key drivers of economic growth, have been duly prioritized. These include infrastructure development especially energy, transport and ICT; industrialization and value-addition; human resource development; improving market access and greater participation of the private sector.

While the SDGs will be universally applicable, we also recognize national circumstances, different levels of development and the needs of countries in special situations, particularly the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and African countries.

Taking urgent action to combat climate change and its severe impacts is also prioritised in the new agenda. We should redouble efforts towards reaching an ambitious legally-binding agreement on climate change in Paris in December that promotes the achievement of sustainable development, while protecting the planet.

The new agenda also rightly underscores the important linkages between development, peace and security and human rights. We have to intensify efforts to combat transnational crime, terrorism and the rise of radicalization and violent extremism around the world.

We should reject pseudo ─ ideologies that manipulate identity (by promoting sectarianism of religion and communities) and eclipse the legitimate interests of peoples through investment and trade. Where identity issues are legitimate, they should be expeditiously handled.

Excellencies,

We should all be proud of what has been accomplished so far as we usher in this new development agenda. However, the critical next step will be to ensure its successful implementation on the ground.

In this context, integrating the SDGs into our respective national and regional development plans, mobilizing adequate financial resources, technology development and transfer as well as capacity building will be critical.

We have to ensure full implementation of the comprehensive framework for financing sustainable development, which we adopted in the Addis Ababa Action Agenda to support achievement of the goals and targets of Agenda 2030.
One of the major challenges many developing countries continue to face is accessing affordable long-term financing for critical infrastructure projects.

In this regard, it will be vital to promptly establish and operationalize the proposed new forum to bridge the infrastructure gap and complement existing initiatives and multilateral mechanisms to facilitate access to long-term financing at concessional and affordable rates.

The efforts of developing countries to improve domestic resource mobilization, boost economic growth and address major challenges such as unemployment should be supported by development partners as well as international financial institutions and regional development banks. We also need to do more to promote Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), support entrepreneurship especially for women and youth and enhance the contribution of the private sector and other stakeholders to sustainable development. Through prioritization, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) themselves can also contribute to their own infrastructure development.

In order to build effective, inclusive and accountable institutions at all levels, we have to ensure that the voices of developing countries and regions are heard and that they are treated as equal partners in multilateral decision-making. At the international level, we need urgent reform of the United Nations ─ particularly the Security Council ─ and other multilateral institutions to reflect the current geo-political realities.

We need a renewed global partnership for development in which all the commitments made, including on Overseas Development Assistance (ODA), trade and investment are fulfilled.

While the Agenda represents the collective aspirations of all peoples, its success will hinge on its ability to reduce inequalities and improve the lives of the most vulnerable among us, including women, children, the elderly and persons with disabilities.

After months of intense negotiations and steadfast commitment, we have before us an Agenda that represents our best opportunity to transform our world.

We have heard the voices of people spanning the globe; from eager children asking for access to a quality education to young women seeking better maternal health; from rural villagers whose farmlands have been ravaged by droughts to the coastal fishermen on Small Island States who fear their entire existence will soon be swallowed up by rising sea levels.

We continue to witness the influx of refugees and migrants into Europe from Africa and the Middle East, which is partly caused by conflict and lack of economic opportunities.

These voices may speak many language and dialects, but in the end their message is the same ─ please help us to live happier, more prosperous lives, while also protecting the planet for our children and grandchildren.

After adoption of this Agenda, it is incumbent upon us all to take the development aspirations laid out in this document and turn them into reality on the ground; for our people, our communities and our nations. This agenda will create global prosperity different from the past arrangements of prosperity for some through parasitism and misery and under-development for others.

I thank you for your attention.

Press Release: 30 Million Euros in the Health Sector commited today from Germany to the EAC

Ranking of Peace in the East Africa Countries in 2015

First and foremost I will address what the trending and ranking means. What kind of things that the Global Peace Index does and what kind of attributes and recent history means for individual countries. All of this makes violence, homicides, social security, militarization which is part of the evaluation of the scores which makes the Index. The countries that will take on is Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. Which have different histories, though they are close to each other? Why are the numbers so far apart? What makes this? We can wonder. But look through what been said in the report and the numbers.

Last years trend:

“Over the past eight years the average country score deteriorated 2.4 percent, highlighting that on average the world has become slightly less peaceful. However, this decrease in peacefulness has not been evenly spread, with 86 counties deteriorating while 76 improved. MENA has suffered the largest decline of any region in the world, deteriorating 11 per cent over the past eight years (GPI, P: 2).

Economic price of violence:

“The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2014 was substantial and is estimated at US$14.3 trillion or 13.4 per cent of world GDP. This is equivalent to the combined economies of Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. Since 2008, the total economic impact on global GDP has increased by 15.3 per cent, from US$12.4 trillion to US$14.3 trillion” (GPI, P: 3).

“Societal safety and security:

This section analyses the effects of urbanisation on violence, and finds that peace generally increases with higher levels of urbanisation. This is a by-product of higher levels of development. However, countries that have weak rule of law, high levels of intergroup grievances and high levels of inequality are more likely to experience deteriorations in peace as urbanisation increases” (GPI, P: 3).

“Militarisation:

Since 1990, there has been a slow and steady decrease in measures of global militarisation, with large changes in militarisation occurring rarely and usually associated with larger, globally driven geopolitical and economic shifts” (GPI, P: 3).

Important evaluation that makes the GPI:

• Ongoing domestic and international conflict
• Societal safety and security
• Millitarisation
• Indirect cost of violence: Accounts for costs that are not directly related to an act of violence and accrue over the long run. This can include losses of income due to injury or pain or grievance of others who were not directly involved in the crime.
• Internal Peace: A set of indicators that measures how peaceful a country is inside its
• national borders
• Negative Peace: The absence of violence or fear of violence.
• Positive Peace: The attitudes, institutions and structures which create and sustain peaceful societies. These same factors also lead to many other positive outcomes that support the optimum environment for human potential to flourish.
• Positive Peace Index (PPI): A composite measurement of Positive Peace based on 24 indicators grouped into eight domains.
• Resilience: The ability of a country to absorb and recover from shocks, for example natural disasters or fluctuations in commodity prices.
• Violence containment: Economic activity related to the consequences or prevention of violence where the violence is directed against people or property.

(GPI, P: 4).

Listings of Peaceful ratings:

World Rank:	Country:	Score:	State of the Peace:	Change in Score:	Regional Rank:
130	Burundi	2,323	Low	+,0,009	34
155	Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)	3,085	Very Low	-0,033	41
119	Ethiopia	2,234	Low	-0,143	27
133	Kenya	2,323	Low	-0,086	35
139	Rwanda	2,420	Low	-0,027	38
157	Somalia	3,307	Very Low	-0,079	42
159	South Sudan	3,383	Very Low	+0,107	44
64	Tanzania	1,903	Medium	-0,024	10
111	Uganda	2,197	Medium	+0,013	24

(GPI P: 8-9, P: 13)

The Regional Rank is set for the region of Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore the regional rank is different from the World Rank. In the World rank it goes from 64 of Tanzania and 159 of South Sudan. That is 100 countries in between in the World, when we talk about peaceful environment and the fear should be one South Sudan (159), Somalia (157) and DRC (155).  Tanzania which is on top is the 64. Next place is for Uganda was ranked on 111, the third and fourth country in the region which was near each other was Kenya (133) and Rwanda (139). And the fifth place is Burundi (130) – which I am certain will fall on the rank after the elections in 2015. But for the GPI 2015 there is still high level for the region.

On Armed Conflicts and War in Sub-Saharan Africa: “Although sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of conflicts, these conflicts tend not to last as long as in other regions. There were only three conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 which started more than three years ago, two of which are long-standing conflicts in Ethiopia” (GPI, P: 51).

On Peacefulness in the region: “In 2008, MENA had the same level of peacefulness as sub-Saharan Africa, and was the 6th most peaceful region in the world. By 2015 it has become the least peaceful region in the world, deteriorating by 11 per cent over the period” (GPI, P: 55).

On South Sudan: “South Sudan’s ranking declined by only three places, but this was on top of by far the sharpest fall in the 2014 GPI. It remains embroiled in the civil conflict that broke out in December 2013, and which has thus far proved immune to numerous peace efforts” (…) “South Sudan also fell for its third consecutive year, slipping a further 3 places to 159. (GPI, P: 13, 16).

On Somalia: Somalia is on the highest cost of violence percentage of GDP which was 22%. “The majority of” (…) “Somalia’s costs stem from IDPs and refugees and homicides” (…) “The same category represents 54 per cent of Somalia’s total costs. (GPI, P: 77).

The difference is staggering from Somalia and South Sudan to the best state of peace in Tanzania. The other countries in between is ranked so close and with scores that could easily point them further down for next year if the militarization and violence inside the countries continue. Like I have a grand feeling that Burundi will fall on the ranking next year, also Uganda with the recent attacks and continuously going against opposition to the Presidential elections in 2016. Rwanda will sure shut down anybody who goes against the third term of Paul Kagame. There are also issues that are meeting Joseph Kabila’s planed third term in Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia is in a stalemate of totalitarian regime that keeps the borders clear and with the resistance that comes from Somalia or the Omoro Liberation Front (OLF). Kenya has issues with building the border to Somalia where they has also taken districts in Somalia. And Kenya has the fear of Al-Shabab after the terrorist attack in Nairobi (2013) and that has happen also in Kampala (2010) in Uganda.

Therefore these rankings are important to look at because you can see what the state of ease is at, this is about the peace and impact of the authoritarian and totalitarian regimes in these countries. And will be good to follow and see how it really turns out in the next year rankings from the same place the Institute for Economic and Peace.

Hope it’s been a drop of enlightenment for you as well. Peace.

Reference:

Institute for Economics and Peace: “Global Peace Index – 2015 – Measuring Peace, its causes and its economic value”