“When the sun has set, no candle can replace it.” – George R.R. Martin
How can you say it, but 24th November 2018 has been a shocking day for many. The concessions done by the HM Government, shows again how favorable and lack of leverage the Tories have when it meets the European Union counterparts. They are now on the rise of losing big. The biggest loss without an armed conflict.
Even the ones against the European Union, should soon start fighting to stay there, as even the territories on the outside of British Isles are now in question. The lack of control and shambles of negotiations are proven, as the HM Government of Gibraltar evening statement shows the dire consequences of what happen today.
That Prime Minister Theresa May are making the Withdrawal Agreement less feasible by the minute. She has a own gift of making the general idea more toxic. It was already red-flags on the backstop, the temporary special treatment on Northern Ireland, nothing mentioned for Scotland and Wales. While the fisheries and their needs was not taken care of and also the Political Declaration, where all mobility and immigration rights are suddenly stopped.
Therefore, this week has been terrible and a nightmare. It just don’t stop. The Brexit, the British are really making their lives worse by the minute. The PM are clearly not winning hearts at home, neither is she in Europe. As they are making it harder back-home. The DUP are against it, the ERG part of the Tories are against it, massive parts of Labour is against it. The Lib-Dems are too, the SNP and so on. There are so little part who is in favor of the deal. And the latest concessions are not making it a stronger case.
This being the partition of Northern Ireland, the loss of Gibraltar and also the possible problems with fishing quotas too. Nevertheless, they are becoming totally sovereign, but has to follow certain temporary restrains, while the UK are working to find their new role as a Third Country to the EU. Clearly, this Withdrawal Agreement are giving the British a headache.
I cannot understand how they can prolong this one. As it has gone two years since the Referendum. They were promised GOLD and everything that GLIMMERS if they left the EU. However, the visions of the last two weeks have been brutal. Showing the truth, which the Tories didn’t want to tell.
The ones that was Brexiteers should know this. They should feel this and see the damage it does. That the EU are clearly playing high stakes, but getting much more, than the HM Government is. They are leaving, but getting very little for doing so. While the Remainers are proven right to stay and not leave at all. Even if that means two years of spoiled promise and pledges, as the current state of leaving are not doing any good. Neither following the Withdrawal Agreement and a ‘No Deal’ are not serving the interest of the people.
I don’t think the Brexiteers in the House or the Lords will act in good faith. They want to save face, but at the same time. They will lose their honor and their role as representatives of the public. They are trading the future, without securities of tomorrow. Which is a rare moment, where the elites and representatives are trading away what they have to get less. They do it deliberately and doing it stay in power. But for how long will the public accept, that they are getting less?
Whatever, the sun is set, the Empire where there is only one sunset. The British are losing more and becoming more cornered. They are at the penalty box and trying to shot on the goal, but not even hitting the post. They are curving it into the supporters. That is how bad they are playing. If they were a Premier League team, they would be in the relegation zone and could if they made wise decisions save the team this season. But what they are doing right now, is continuing to lose without any possible salvation. Peace.
“Man is an animal that makes bargains: no other animal does this – no dog exchanges bones with another.” – Adam Smith
There is something amazing and curious about this whole situation, no matter what sort of bargain the Tories are doing in Brussels. The deals becomes more shady and more dire. The deals are so special and uniquely bad. That this is the second coming of illuminati steering the wheel, because who are they thinking they are fooling. The whole process has been flawed and the spin-control out of proportion. Still, the paperwork of the Draft Withdrawal Agreement and now the Political Declaration are telling, what so many new questions, but the final steering point is now the movement of people, but like always there are also some other issues.
“The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms. It must also ensure the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the protection of its internal market, while respecting the result of the 2016 referendum including with regard to the development of its independent trade policy and the ending of free movement of people between the Union and the United Kingdom” (Political Declaration, 22.11.2018).
Backstop in Northern Ireland:
“The Parties recall their determination to replace the backstop solution on Northern Ireland by a subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing” (Political Declaration, 22.11.2018)
“Noting that both Parties will have equivalence frameworks in place that allow them to declare a third country’s regulatory and supervisory regimes equivalent for relevant purposes, the Parties should start assessing equivalence with respect to each other under these frameworks as soon as possible after the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the Union, endeavouring to conclude these assessments before the end of June 2020. The Parties will keep their respective equivalence frameworks under review” (Political Declaration, 22.11.2018).
“Noting that the United Kingdom has decided that the principle of free movement of persons between the Union and the United Kingdom will no longer apply, the Parties should establish mobility arrangements, as set out below” (Political Declaration, 22.11.2018).
Therefore, we can now see the signs of closed borders for people and movement from the EU to the UK. That is the meagre resolution here, as the Free Movement will be gone. What is also striking, is still the evident of Northern Ireland and Irish question. That is mentioned in passages all over the Declaration. However, the Welsh and Scottish are not mentioned. Neither is the Gibraltar, which certainly will get the Spanish fuming in Brussels. As they have been vocal about the wording in the Withdrawal Agreement earlier this month.
Now, there are not all questions fixed, and the lack of progress is evident. What is rare to is that Goods, Financial Services might go on like today, but the Free Movement is taken away. So the economic interests comes before the people. Which isn’t striking in the world of the Tories, but in general it is evident of what values that matters.
We have to see if this sort of arrangement get through and even if the Parliament are accepting the Withdrawal Agreement as it is or this Political Declaration too. Which shows the dire consequences of the bargain done now. City of London might not for instance will be hit before the 2020. However, the free movement of people will be. Meaning a possible brain-drain for the United Kingdom might appear more obvious. Since the public and educated might have to get work and visas abroad. Peace.
The European Research Group (ERG) dropped a paper today, a 7 pages slice of paper, which is as thick as many of the prequel documents of Her Majesty’s Government before the Draft Withdrawal Agreement that was published last week.
The last week has been terrible for the Prime Minister Theresa May and her Cabinet. The resignations, the added no-confidence letters and the whole chaos from within. As the United Kingdom are supposed to vote for this Draft Agreement next week. While that is happening, the ERG, which is between 70 or 80 Conservative MPs. They dropped their document. Showing what they are thinking about the agreement. What the “Your Right to Know: The Case against Chequers and the Draft Withdrawal Agreement in plain English” says are “We would hand over £39 billion of taxpayer’s money with nothing guaranteed in return” (…) “The UK will remain a ‘rule taker’ over large areas of EU law. The UK will continue to be bound by EU laws in vital areas such as social policy, environmental policy and employment policy, i.e will obey EU laws, but have no further influence over how they are drafted” (…) “No exit from a ‘backstop’ Customs Union. The agreement establishes a ‘joint committee’ which will oversee the UK’s ability to proceed to a future trade relationship” (…) “The Agreement creates internal borders within the UK. Northern Ireland would become a ‘rule taker’ in further areas such as goods, agricultural products and VAT compared to the rest of the UK” (…) “The European Court of Justice (ECJ) will remain in control of the agreement and large areas of EU law directly effective in the UK” (ERG, P: 2, 2018).
All of this has been said by many others and was expected to key arguments by the ERG. They are wanting full sovereign United Kingdom outside the European Union. However, they are not coming with solutions and how it will pan out. They complain that the Withdrawal Agreement and its content. But the ERG Notes are not specific in where the Brexiteers will solve the matter with the EU or within the UK itself. They have one way, but that doesn’t measures the reality of leaving the Union.
The ERG are saying this: “In essence, Super Canada would involve taking an existing EU Canada trade agreement, which was signed in 2016 and updating this framework by adding on some additional elements, such as a security protocol and a protocol on data. The EU Canada agreement took several years to negotiate but this means that most of the ‘heavy lifting’ has already been done and many of the key issues have previously been thrashed out in a manner the EU has already agreed to. A Super Canada trade agreement would not involve being in the Single Market or Customs Union and would not leave the UK subject to the authority of the European Court of Justice” (ERG, P: 5, 2018).
The ERG are proposing something that took years for Canada to do. Canada was never a member and neither had responsibilities toward the EU. That did the UK and they have benefited from the EU and its membership with the single-market and customs-union, even if they have to lose other sovereign control to be a part of that. However, now that they are leaving.
The EU will not accepted being a partner tricked by UK. The UK doesn’t want to be tricked by EU. The EU wants to follow protocol and also be correct within their laws. That is why the Withdrawal Agreement is like it is, but also because the Brexiteers and their negotiators didn’t do their job. They we’re busy promising easy leaving, without thinking consequences of the agreements done.
The ERG are continuing that, as this paper are saying the sad truths about the Agreement. However, they are wanting to go back to start and negotiate like Canada. To get a Super-Canada deal. That has never been done before and that would mean, that the EU would forgive and give-in all their demands. As the UK still have to in the imminent future pay for certain institutions and pledges given as a member. That is normal when people are leaving a Union and formerly being a Member.
The ERG just want to flea and expect to be able to get a favorable deal. They expect to have a say and still be on the outside. Like the EU is going to be humiliated and played like that. The UK will feel the pain and that is part of the plan there. To show the members the price of leaving. That is why the EU is prepared for a “no-deal”. Which is really devastating and costly for the UK. As the hard-borders, tariffs, and all sorts of measures happens over night.
However, the ERG are nothing considering that, as they are dreaming of a possible approach. Where two years of negotiations are down the drain and they can start all-over. Like it wasn’t anything and can be changed for the betterment of the UK. Because, everyone just want to be the loyal servants of the British Empire and the Giants of London. However, the world doesn’t look first London anymore. Even if London thinks so.
The ERG should consider themselves, humble themselves and wonder what the EU has planned. Because the ERG is just weakening the Tories, weakening the own Union. As the ERG just like the Withdrawal Agreement didn’t mention any remedies for the Scottish or Welsh. They are the forgotten siblings in the custody battle. The Good Friday Agreement and the Irish question is always major.
Still, the ERG thinks that the flawed Agreement can be rewritten into a Super-Canada. Do they think Brussels is that foolish? That forgiving and that they don’t have leverage? Seriously?
The ERG should consider to a unilateral approach so the HM Government or the Tories could be able to have a deal, where the votes are unanimously for one way with the EU. However, it is more knives and less finding ways to solve the Brexit. More dreams and less of a reality. Which has been a problem for the British for two whole years. An it doesn’t stop. Peace.
Today, the Third Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union was appointed, this was Steve Barclay, the Conservative Party Member of Parliament from North East Cambridgeshire. The first Secretary for the position was David Davis who served from July 2016 to July 2018. The Second Secretary Dominic Raab was it from July 2018 until 15th November 2018.
Now, the third in line and unknown Barclay MP comes in after the Big Brexiteer Davis and Boris Johnson has left the building. The Conservative Party are really looking around for loyal subjects to finalize whatever this Brexit is.
Brexit is a chaos, it is a mess, it is a nightmare and there is no possible way of winning. It is a reason why the hardliners and the ERG MPs aren’t pushing for Cabinet positions. They know it is merely impossible to win at this stage. The background and the facilitation of the Withdrawal Agreement from the DExEU have already sucked and been done properly. It has been a farce and lack of due diligence. As well, as none of the concern of the Secretaries. As they have fled the ship, when they understood they couldn’t stomach the realities.
The Tories have really not won a good bargain. That is why even Prime Minister David Cameron fled the scene. He knew this would be loose-lose game. It wouldn’t be fruitful.
No matter what roads these are going, it is going to be rocky. It is not going to easy or be anything that the UK will earn upon. Unless, they are trying to find a way to still be a Member State within the EU. Even for some, that sound better, than any of the alternatives of how the UK are leaving the Union. Which is all ironic.
The Brexiteers are losing, the Remainers are losing. The United Kingdom are losing. The EU is losing, but not as much as the UK is. In the midst of that Barclay wants the job to end this and be the last remaing Secretary until the UK has left the Union. I don’t know what his motivation is, but he must be really desperate for a vital role in the cabinet.
Because Raab and Davis left a hell-hole and a hell-bound result. No matter what sort of magic trick he can, he cannot be able to satisfy or even ensure everyone good graces. There will only be blood. There will be more MPs resigning and more erratic behavior. As there are already mutiny and lack of trust to the PM. It is in the midst of this, Barclay is coming in.
Unless he is the savior of Brexit, which I doubt. Because by every minute there less and less to save, even to salve the skeletons and bones. The truth of what the UK is getting of a Withdrawal and the consequences of leaving is all there. It isn’t mere speculations. The Draft Agreement is specific and the new Secretary will not alter that much. Unless, he has other motive.
Barclay will work against the machine. A machine that has been running since the Referendum in June 2016. Which none of his predecessors was succeeding at doing. Both of them failed. So, most likely he will fail too.
Therefore, I don’t understand why he wants to go on this quest. A road not taken, but a road which is only filled with traps and no certainties.
Steve, good luck and have a safe journey! Peace.