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Archive for the tag “Standard Gauge Railway Development”

Uganda: Civil Society Position on Tax Revenue Measures for FY 2017/18 (21.04.2017)

Report from the MoFPED shows the growing Ugandan debt by June 2016!

Again, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) dropped another report on the fiscal policies and the fiscal health of the economy in Uganda. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) have created this environment as the growing debt and growing interest payment comes with their planned debt rise. Still, the PriceWaterhouseCoopers spelled gloom earlier in the year, as this report was dropped on the MoFPED web page today. Even if the Report was spelled out in December 2016. It is if like the NRM didn’t want this to spelled out early. Since the numbers aren’t compelling of an arts piece, more issues… just take a look!

The stock of total public debt grew from US$ 7.2 billion at the end of June 2015 to US$ 8.4 billion in June 2016. This represents an increase from 30.6% of GDP to 33.8% over the two periods. The increase was largely on account of external debt, which grew from US$ 4.4 billion to US$ 5.2 billion over the period. Domestic debt increased from US$ 2.8 billion to US$ 3.2 billion” (MoFPED, P:V, 2016).

That the debt are growing quick, as the public debt grew with US$ 1.2 billion, that the percentage of GDP went up with 3,2%, the external debt rose with US$ 0.8 billion and the Domestic debt went up US$ 0.4 billion. All of these numbers show the amount of monies that the Government are adding on their debt, as the UNRA and the development projects are suspended by World Bank. So the Infrastructure development can be questioned as the growing debt, as the government must have other uses of the growing and scaled up debt. Since the transparency of the economy isn’t there and that the sanctioned bills comes from the State House. Just look at the growing interest rates as well.

Interest Payment as a percentage of GDP stood at 2.2% as at end June 2016, up from 1.9% as at June 2015. The increase is largely explained by interest payments on domestic debt, which grew from Shs 1,077 billion in FY2014/15 to 1,470 billion in FY2015/16. There was a significant increase in the weighted average interest rate of Government debt; from 5.9% to 6.5% in June 2015/16. This followed increases in the weighted interest rates for both domestic and external debt, from 13.6% to 15.3% for domestic debt and from 0.9% to 1.2% external debt. As interest rates increase, so do the debt service obligations of Government” (MoFPED, P: 4, 2016).

The difference between June 2015 and June 2016 the percentage has grown with 0.3%, the domestic interest rate grew with Shs. 0.393 billion. The Interest rate alone went up by percentage 0.6%, as the weighted interest rates went up 1.7%. The key sentence that the report wrote and I repeat: “As interest rates increase, so do the debt service obligations of Government”.

That idea isn’t only on the interest payment percentages are running higher, but as the debt goes up, the interests goes up. So the Debt Service Obligations are going up for the Government. This is a natural outcome, that the obligations for the state goes up with the amount of debt it rises. So the government can try to portray this is controlled, and to one extent it is under control. Still, the growth in this regard proves that the NRM regime are pilling up debt and increasing their debt, as well as interests. In the end this will make the state worse. Especially knowing that the energy dams have been built poorly and many of the expensive roads haven been fruitful. This is development that the growing debt is being used to…

So the NRM regime and the Ugandan government isn’t believable… the rise of debt and interests show’s the current state of affairs. Even if the percentage is after plan, the government still has to take charge and make sure they can pay back both the debt and interests. Peace.

Reference:

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) – ‘DEBT SUSTAINABILITY

ANALYSIS REPORT 2015/16’

Uganda: UPC Calls for Economic Reforms (05.04.2017)

PwC report spells gloom over rising debt in Uganda!

Ugandan shillings

A report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers limited has delivered this month is clearly seeing what others has seen with the economic situation and the use of funds by the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and their regime. This report by a company which is an international company who works with other businesses and civil society organizations who needs economic advice and advisory services for taxes and such; therefore the report from PwC on economic situation is telling. Their speciality on their outlook will be saying with auditors and financial analyst whose words means a lot. They are professional analysts in this field are writing and saying this on the economic climate. The Economic climate is worrying and that has been visible. The liability of the growing debt in the republic has been a hazard together with the lacking internal revenue for the state as well. Just take a look!

Sluggish economy with higher debt:

“This bulletin comes at a very crucial time for the Uganda economy when growth is slowing down, private sector credit is on a decline, consumer demand is low, implementation and execution of critical public infrastructure projects is very sluggish, and the public sector debt burden on the economy is at the highest it has ever been” (PwC, P: 3, 2017). “If the domestic revenues collections continue to underperform, the government will be forced to borrow more from the domestic market. The increase in government borrowing may result in a substantial increase in yields on government securities, which may result in an increase in borrowing rates, which may constrain the private sector credit growth even further” (PwC, P: 7, 2017).

Growing debt:

“The Uganda’s public debt burden has risen by 12.7% in the past four years from 25.9% of GDP in FY 2012/13, to 38.6% of GDP in FY 2016/17. The debt burden is projected to continue rising to 45% of GDP by 2020. Debt as a percentage of revenues has risen by 54% since 2012 and is expected to exceed 250% by 2018. The country’s ever increasing debt burden has resulted in a deterioration of the debt affordability situation” (PwC, P: 8, 2017). “Uganda’s capital expenditures are still too reliant on external finance. Currently debt servicing constitutes 11% of the total government expenditure, one of the highest debt burdens in sub-Saharan Africa. This is expected to increase to 16% of the total government expenditure by 2018. Uganda’s debt burden has risen faster than the government’s own resources, resulting in a debt-to-revenue ratio of 236%, one of the highest amongst B-rated countries. This has prompted Moody’s recent down grade of Uganda’s long-term bond rating by one notch to B2 from B1” (PwC, P: 8, 2017).

An Economy with challenges:

“2016 was an economically difficult year for Uganda. The economy faced numerous challenges due to the continued uncertainty surrounding the recovery in global economic growth, weak commodity prices and geopolitical events in our key trading partners. As a result, of these numerous challenges, our export earnings, FDI flows and remittances to Uganda all went down. These developments, together with a slowdown in the execution of public investment projects and weaker than expected private sector demand, had a major effect on the economy” (…) “Other internal risks include delays in the implementation of public infrastructure projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) linking Uganda to its East African neighbours, and the key infrastructure projects critical for the commencement of oil production” (PwC, P: 4-5, 2017).

If you are worried by the Republic and their economy after this, than you haven’t followed the class since this signs have been there for while! The state of the economy is fragile and the debt rise should concern all the ones inside the Republic and also outside. However, this could change, but that has to be done by the government and steer in another direction as today. The greed and the common sense of developing the economy is forgotten, as they are fixated on infrastructure projects and oil developments, while borrowing to fill the losses of donor-aid and internal revenue. This could be done in many ways, but that would not be easy. Peace.

Reference:

PricewaterhouseCoopers Limited (PwC) – ‘Uganda Economic Outlook 2017’ (February 2017)

We thought we seen the worst; but the here comes the 20 Point Programme from Mzee!

Saturday Monitor 02.07.2016

Sometimes I think President Museveni is a bit too smart for himself, that must be it, as he have since start of his reign added and amended more plans than useful laws. That is something the world should know by now. He entered his first term after rebellion with the 10-Point Program that was supposed to reinvent and remake the democratic, accountability and facilitate the development of Uganda. Something that has been stalled for wish to stay in power and also his own nepotism, corruption and cronyism in government and state functions in general; together with no-need to leave the militaristic maneuvers of government.

“The NRM under the leadership of President Y. K. Museveni came up with the ten point programe of action. In 1987, Basing on the ten point program, President Museveni launched a Minimum Economic Recovery Programme followed by a series of reforms aimed at restoring macro-economic stability to provide a favourable environment for economic growth and private sector development. The key reforms were, liberalization, privatization, currency reform, changes in tax and fiscal policy plus restraining expansion in government expenditure while maintaining focus on economic recovery and growth” (Uganda 25 Years of Nation Building and Progress, Jan 1986 – Jan 2011, Printed: May 2011).

Museveni Cool Poster

That is why that when I read that President Museveni had the genius idea of a 20-Point Program, I was latterly laughing and crying in sadness of this so-called leader. Who supposed to lead and make change; after thirty years in power with a 81 Cabinet and created astonishing amounts of districts and sub-counties, that every town and nearly all villages have either one or two central LCV and other councilors to be bribed by the central-government. And in his genius attempt to spoilt the trade, he comes with another plan to cover over the atrocities and pledges that we’re recycled under campaigning in 2015 and 2016.

This comes from the leader who of late has already these wonderful plans to hold onto and supposed to finish in his lifetime, as he wants to promise the Ugandans the middle-Income position and also economic progress in the levels of South Korea and Singapore. Though, the corrupt and donor-friendly behavior is still necessary since the Petroleum money, is still not certain as it is still needed more development and investment before the profits from the black-oil drilled in the Lake Albert basin and Albertine region.

The first plan that was supposed to take over the failed 10-Point Program from the Economic and Development of the Republic, where the magical and all-covering; the Second plan the famous ‘Vision2040’, where all pieces of government and private sector we’re interconnected as the NRM-Regime had plans to reconfigure and also establish what they had did between 1986 and 2013. The plan that we’re released in 2013 said this: “a transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years”; I do not feel the need to say how much further they have come in the last three years.

Hon. Francis Mwijukye said: "Today I visited Karungu government secondary in Karungu subcounty- Buhweju district where I found students studying under very disturbing circumstances" (Mwijukye, 25.06.2016)

Hon. Francis Mwijukye said: “Today I visited Karungu government secondary in Karungu subcounty- Buhweju district where I found students studying under very disturbing circumstances” (Mwijukye, 25.06.2016)

The third plan that comes to mind was the National Development Plan II (NDPII) who we’re drafted and surely released during the 2015, and we’re written March 3, 2015. This was a plan for the infrastructure projects and the defining projects that we’re interconnected with railroads and also the major road projects of the UNRA, which is certain a magnifying economic prospect as the investments in infrastructure as the unfolding economic problems, that recently was reported from UNRA. So the President has issues with this alone, before releasing the 20-Points Program of 2016.

So with the hearing of a new plan from the grand National Resistance Movement and the Presidency of 30 years, if he had finished or wished to finish the first plan, the 10-Point Program. But, that wouldn’t make the political battlefield and the regression of progress so obvious; if anybody believes he will ever finish a program or even sufficiently have due-diligence behind a new program, you should dream on or reconsider you thought pattern.

With the newly released 20-Program Plan of 2016, is a rehash of old-ideas into a new format with the mix of the Vision2040, 10-Point Program and the National Development Plan II. That is a combined of these visions, as the 10-Point program is totally out of whack, the 2040 is in the midst of it and been in the works for three years without any real progress on the matter. The NDPII is a framework for basic transport and infrastructure that are parts of all the three other plans. So, this is far from finish and with the UNRA troubles, the World Bank suspension and the others issues with financing the grand infrastructure projects of late, while the Standard Gauge Railway and the Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP), which is a collective planning of infrastructure between the East African nations we’re it need cooperative effort from the countries.

issues clinton uganda

So with all of this in mind, when reading the progressive, the revolutionary, the rebels new plan like the monstrosity levels of belief that he can sell yet another amazing plan to the public and donors. The reassessment the donors should do is that this in the mass of affairs and tricks the NRM-Regime have come with for three decades and was supposed to be new-found governance; instead it has been more of the same, just in another name, another package and another head-honcho who been able to smile with Bill Clinton, Gadaffi and all the dignitaries that wanted spend money on his government and newly created institutions under his leadership. This has all happen, while the Western countries have accepted the atrocities and brutality against civilians for the peace and assurance of progression of democratic values that over time have been proven as fool’s gold.

The reality of this new Plan is to repackage the same of promises and the so-called progression of the government institutions and the civil service delivery as hospitals, schools and roads. Through the neo-liberal structural adjustment plan that we’re accepted to get more World Bank loans in the 1980s, while now because of less donor-funding adding more loans into the bloated government budgets together with bigger government spending on growing parliament, growing districts and sub-counties, while the added expenditure on the projects as the rising prices on roads with little due-diligence, higher interests on the fallen loans and the expenses on military equipment. This all with the steady level of inflation and proved little will to change the service delivery from the NRM-Regime, as the international community have let most of it go without any impunity or real care.

Old Stats Uganda

As even the European Union proudly did this recently after the fraudulent election they discredit in their own report, still they we’re so giddy to do this:

“Goverment of Uganda to hold political dialogue with European Union as mandated in Art 8 of Cotonou Agreement” (Emma Were Tinka, 28.06.2016). So the true ethics of the European Union and democratic values can be traded of with a decent agreement and when the NRM-Regime can even be validated by EU, this talk and consider, even sign the agreement, but they might not implement it; as the due-diligence have never been a thing for Museveni, so after all this year? Why should it all of a sudden matter?

This new plan is another one of his schemes and plot to get donor-aid and get funding for his nepotism, his cars and airplanes as the direct budget and the over-priced infrastructure projects have silenced his critics as that have been used on tear-gas, Russian fighter-jets and other needed procurement, not on fixing schools and buying school-books for the students. That is no-need and not proved added value. This 20-Program plan is just non-sense and the ones that buys into it, are long lost causes like Ofwono Opondo and Andrew Mwenda. Peace.

IGAD signs LAPSSET corridor development MoU (19.05.2016)

LAPSSET-600x300

The IGAD Executive Secretary Amb (Eng.) Mahboub Maalim on 13th May 2016 in Nairobi signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Kenya’s LAPSSET Corridor Development Authority (LCDA) Director General Mr. Silvester Kasuku.

The MoU details cooperation by the two authorities towards development of the Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET). The overall goal of the LAPSSET Corridor Program is to interconnect the Republics of Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan among others. Once implemented the Program will link the landlocked regions of South Sudan and Ethiopia to Lamu Port in Kenya promoting regional integration in the Horn of Africa, and providing trade opportunities. The LAPSSET Corridor is also part of Africa’s Presidential Infrastructure Champion Initiative (PICI).

According to the signed MoU, IGAD and LCDA will work together in mobilising funds towards detailed engineering design studies of the LAPSSET Railway component of the Corridor (Lamu-Isiolo-Moyale-Addis Ababa/Isiolo-Nadapal-Juba, approx. 2,900 km). The design studies of the standard gauge railway will be spearheaded by IGAD Secretariat.

13th Summit of the Northern Corridor Integration Projects – Joint Communique (23.04.2016)

13 NCIP Joint Communique P1 201613 NCIP Joint Communique P2 201613 NCIP Joint Communique P3 201613 NCIP Joint Communique P4 201613 NCIP Joint Communique P5 2016

11th Northern Corridor Integration Projects Summit – Joint Communique (17.10.2015)

11th NCIP P111th NCIP P211th NCIP P311th NCIP P411th NCIP P5

MoU between the Partner States of the Northern Corridor Intregation Projects (NCIP) – Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya and South Sudan – March 2015

NCIPMOUP1NCIPMOUP2NCIPMOUP3NCIPMOUP4NCIPMOUP5NCIPMOUP6NCIPMOUP7NCIPMOUP8NCIPMOUP9

CSO Press Statement on the Uganda FY 2015/2016 National Budget Framework – Our Monster Budget: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (07.06.2015)

CSOFY2915P1CSOFY2915P2CSOFY2915P3CSOFY2915P4CSOFY2915P5

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