
The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) of 2018 and Khartoum Declaration of Agreement Between the Parties of South Sudan of 2018. Later the parties involved also signed another agreement in the Rome Declaration of 2020. While we cannot deny the importance of the Entebbe Declaration on the Operationalization of the Arusha Agreement on the Reunification of the SPLM, which was signed and agreed upon in 2017.
We are now in 2022 and the R-ACRSS haven’t been fulfilled or implemented within the boundaries of time. The R-JMEC and stakeholders are seeing the possibilities of extending the transitional period. Which seems to make sense at this point. As the stipulations in the R-ARCSS for a free and fair election isn’t there. Neither, is all the parties or involved all in agreement on how to move forward at this point.
The SPLM/A-IG, SPLM/A-IO, R-SPLM, SSOMA, NDM and NAS. There are plenty more, but it shows the reality on the ground. The Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU). This government haven’t succeeded or been able to ensure the articles being meet in time. There been push-back and lack of concern, as the importance of holding on to power seems more important than actually implementing the R-ARCSS.
We are seeing leaders, war-lords and whatnot is moving between the main parties within the R-TGoNU as it is preparing for an election. However, I have doubts that it will even happen. If it will happen, it will be a pre-selected game-plan, where the ones involved will ensure longevity and secured victory without any shadow of a doubt. The ones who has negotiated and secured offices with perks and salaries will not back-down now. They took these offices with guns and ammo. These folks will not give way to the public will. I cannot see it now, as there is only a chosen few who might retire or give way to others. They are the noble ones and the ones who has integrity, but don’t expect a huge portion of the R-TGoNU to willingly do that now.
President Salva Kiir Mayardit seems not interested in losing power. He has run the nation by decree and orders. He decides who to appoint and who to promote. It is all within his ranks and power to do so. I cannot see him stepping down or retire as a head of state. No, he will prolong his terms and ensure “legitimacy” for his time there. If it means postponing elections and use the slowly implementation of the R-ARCSS. It is just favouring him and his allies.
The other parties also have stakes in this. They might risk losing out and they have now safe offices because of the agreements. This being SPLM/A-(IO) or SSOMA who could have valid concerns and ability in a possible election. The sentiments will spark and they have to sell policies. As they are now part of the same project and has position to regain. That might be sold, if they are running an election. That is something Kiir can trade-off, as the leverage of up-keep and retaining positions is more viable in the current regime. However, that still make it seem far-fetched to have a representative and civilian government. Since, this is the war-lords, militia leaders and former rebels who are in power now.
That’s why I doubt Kiir will offer an election very soon. He can use the R-ARCSS and hold talks with stakeholders. He can issue an extension and ensure his passing legacy as a President for Life in South Sudan. It is not like he will risk losing power or waste this opportunity. If he is in doubt or fears the loss control. Kiir will call Museveni and get help from the UPDF to cease the opposition usage of skirmishes within the Republic. That’s the sort of thing he does and it wouldn’t shock anyone.
I have doubt that Kiir will issue an election now. Unless, he will re-issue a possible selection and ensure total control of the Transitional National Assembly and Cabinet. Where he will not loose a thing and crowned King yet again. Peace.











