South Sudan: Where there is smoke, there is fire…

I am receiving concrete information that the #South_Sudan People’s Defense Forces and NSS denials are a lie. Heavy army deployment in and around Juba since Friday night is indeed intended to prevent a coup (probably planned by Akol Koor). More than 20 officers have been arrested” (Patrick Heinisch, 12.11.2023).

Well, everything isn’t well in Juba, South Sudan. The President for Life, Salva Kiir Mayardit isn’t as beloved or popular as he makes himself out to be. The militarism of politics and usage of force to get ahead has caused all of this. While the “Transitional” period and lack of implementation of R-ARCSS is haunting the ruling elite. A ruling elite, which is living on a premiss and a belief that they are beholden to stay in power indefinitely.

A President ruling on decree and without a popular vote is bound to fall eventually. Sooner or later some up-start and wise-guy within the armed ranks will cause a mutiny and get enough commanders on his side. As they are tired, hungry and reckless about the future. In the belief of a new order and a new leadership. Because, the current one isn’t serving anyone, but itself… and using past heroics to defend its existence.

Here is how they described what happened over the weekend:

Although the general security situation was normal in the capital Juba, security forces could be seen early morning deployed around checkpoints, Juba Airport and the president’s residence, causing tensions among residents of Juba. Lul described the reports of a coup attempt as unfounded allegations. “Those who came up with claims of an attempted coup in Juba are terrible liars, and those are enemies of peace who want to cause panic among the population. If there had been an attempted coup, things could not have become normal like they are now in Juba. Who are the coup plotters, if I may ask them?” Lul said. “Things are now normal in Juba and this is not how things work after an attempt coup. I want to reassure the public that those are lies. The correct version of the story is that we have observed an increased cases of robberies at night. So what we did was a show of force to stop criminals from committing crimes in different residential areas,” he added” (Radio Tamazuj – ‘South Sudan army debunks reports of coup attempt’ 11.11.2023).

We can wonder what happened here over the weekend. Because, something isn’t adding up. Especially, if the reports of arrests and a possible culprit. Then there might have been a mutiny and a failed coup d’etat attempt, as the President was away on a Summit in the Middle East. That would seem possible, because others has tried to do this while the Head of State is abroad. It is known tactic and isn’t a new one.

The culprits are thinking the waters are silent and weakened, as the Head is gone and they can easier access and takeover the vital institutions. They can swiftly take control of checkpoints, military barracks and government institutions within a few hours. Because, the Presidential Guards and others are on duty abroad with the President.

We shouldn’t be shocked if someone wanted to pull this off. As the President has imposed himself for over a decade and yet to give any succession or plan to leave office. He even plans for the election and to legitimize his further reign. That’s why you know there will be disgruntled officers, army commanders and soldiers within the ranks. As they only see a chosen elite and no one else is able to get a better life.

That’s what should worry Kiir and his allies. The prolonged agony will only galvanize others further. If there was a failed coup this weekend. That should be a memo that the SPLM-IG and the other stakeholders in the R-ARCSS and R-TGoNU needs to work fast. They need to reform and show service delivery to the public. If not… they can easily be here again and next time someone could succeed. Peace.

South Sudan: Embassy of the Republic of South Sudan – New Delhi-India – Public notification to South Sudanese residing in India (06.11.2023)

South Sudan: Joint Command Council (JCC) – Nimule’s Civilians Evacuation Order (15.10.2023)

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – Press Statement on the Violation of the R-ARCSS by the SPLM-IG and its Allies in the passing of the National Election Act, 2012 (Amendment) Bill, 2023 (18.09.2023)

South Sudan: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation – Press Release (15.08.2023)

South Sudan: Transitional National Legislative Assembly – First Deputy Speaker Nathaniel Oyet Pierino – Press Release (12.08.2023)

South Sudan: President Salva Kiir Mayardit – Statement on Martyrs Day (30.07.2023)

South Sudan: Increased Food Insecurity in South Sudan Exacerbates Threats to the Lives of 3.1 Million Children in Urgent Need of Protection (27.07.2023)

South Sudan: R-JMEC Report states that the Republic isn’t ready for elections…

The Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (R-JMEC) released yesterday their Quarterly Report on the progress and implementation of the R-ARCSS in South Sudan. This is how the Government of South Sudan and the stakeholders are ensuring the implementation of the peace agreement. That has already been stalled, delayed and moving super slow, which has resorted in several push-backs and new deadlines.

Now in July 2023, as the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU) and their signatories are preparing for elections. There are several of bottlenecks and key issues left unresolved. Matters which should have been not only addressed, but agreed upon. To force an election without this is only meriting an illegitimate exercise made for incumbents. That’s how you can interpret things, as there are no codes, laws or boundaries of mandates, which cannot be broken by the appointed high ranking officials of the Republic.

Just read these two paragraphs from the R-JMEC Report of yesterday!

According to the Roadmap schedule, the reconstitution of the NCRC should have been completed by 30 August 2022; the establishment of the Constitutional Drafting Committee (CDC), by 30 October 2022; the conduct by NCRC of its first phase of civic education and collection of data on public views on the constitution-making process by 30 January 2023; the preparation of the first report by NCRC of the civic education and public consultation data for validation by the Public by March 2023; recruitment of members to form the National Constitutional Conference (NCC) by 30 December 2022; and the establishment of the Preparatory Sub-Committee (PSC) by 30 January 2023. Almost six months later, none of these tasks have been completed” (R-JMEC – ‘ON THE STATUS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE REVITALISED AGREEMENT ON THE RESOLUTION OF THE CONFLICT IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN, 22.07.2023).

In terms of the preparation for elections as per the Roadmap, no progress has been made in the reconstitution of the Political Parties Council despite the law having been enacted over one year ago. The reconstitution of the Council is critical to paving the way for the registration of political parties. Also, the enactment of the National Elections (Amendment) Bill, which is before the TNL, and its operationalization is way behind schedule. As a result of these delays, all the elections-related tasks including the establishment and functioning of institutions that drive the elections process, are behind schedule” (R-JMEC – ‘ON THE STATUS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE REVITALISED AGREEMENT ON THE RESOLUTION OF THE CONFLICT IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN, 22.07.2023).

This just shows how deliberate the government, the SPLM-IG and others are acting indifference. It is inaction and lack of concern with the implications of not implementing or coding vital matters. Because, if the stakeholders did so. They had to comply and follow the law. That’s why we know why this hasn’t happened.

President Salva Kiir Mayardit prefers the decrees and that his word is final. He don’t want to altar that now after all these years in office. No, he wants prolong his time in office and has no plans of retiring. That’s why a Constitution and a proper election frightens him. He would have to be statesman and a seasoned politician fighting for the crowds. It is easier when he owns the system, is the personification of the state and can rule supreme. That’s what he wants and he cannot jeopardize that by coding needed laws and making them active. Because, if he does that… it means he has to comply and looses his control of the Republic.

The R-JMEC report is a depressing read. Just by these few words. The R-JMEC is just observing and describing the current affairs. However, it just shows how the R-TGoNU and the ones in office doesn’t mind the lack of institutionalism. They rather prefer the decrees of the President. Peace.

South Sudan: SPLM/A-IO – Parliamentary Caucus – Resolutions of the SPLM(IO) Parliamentary Caucus on the FY 2023/2024 Budget (22.07.2023)