South Sudan: A Joint Press Statement – AUMISS, UNMISS, IGAD and RJMEC Appeal for Calm and Urge South Sudanese Leaders to Pursue Dialogue and Complete Implementation of the R-ARCSS (01.04.2022)

South Sudan: Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM-(IO)) – Press Release (30.03.2022)

South Sudan: Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs – Urgent funding needed to address the humanitarian needs of 6.8 million people in South Sudan in 2022 (31.03.2022)

South Sudan: Intelligence Report is blaming Machar for two coup attempts in the past

Just as the tensions are running high in Juba. There Declassified Report from the South Sudan Intelligence is leaked online. What it is stating is significant and speaks volume of how things are working.

Not that the report from the South Sudan was shocking. Neither was the timelines and what was in the leaked report. It was more dropping some more insights and such. That’s why I am only dropping parts of the Conclusions. As the reports itself is digestible and it’s not a hard read.

It is interesting timing of the leak and when it went online. Just as the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – (In Opposition) (SPLM/A-IO) have ceased participation with the NTC and R-JMEC. So, the President and SPLM-IG has addressed it too. Therefore, it has to be some underlying reasons for the leak and revealing this report.

That’s why I am handling the report with caution. Since, the tensions between Kiir and Machar is escalating and they need to sit-down. There is a need to talk and settle the scores. Instead of creating space to compete on the battlefield. These two has fought in a civil war before… and we don’t need to see them order and decree a new war.

However… here is the vital parts of the conclusions of the report.

Conclusion Coup Number 1 – 2013:

In contrast, the opposition made no attempt to return the goodwill or to progress efforts to stabilise South Sudan. At each stage of the peace negotiations, the primary goal of the opposition led by Riek Machar was to undermine the government and to overthrow President Kiir. These efforts were concretely put in motion with military assistance from foreign entities and continuous attempts to delay, stall and compromise peace efforts. Ultimately, Riek Machar’s signature of ARCSS in August 2015 was triggered only by internal factions within SPLM/A-IO and not by a genuine attempt to power share as evidenced by his own words a month before on 8 July 2015 when he declared that should President Kiir not resign then the “citizens have every right to rise up and overthrow his regime”. This imbalance of efforts was overlooked by the international community and the opposition gained significant traction as Riek Machar was provided with extensive powers as First Vice-President in 2016. Yet even then, Riek Machar was still plotting to overthrow President Kiir in furtherance of his own grand ambitions to be President of the Republic of South Sudan. This culminated in the attempted coup on 8 July 2016” (South Sudan Intelligence Report, 2022).

Conclusion Coup Number 2 – 2016:

Following his return to Juba in April 2016, Riek Machar purported to promote peace, unity and solidarity with the government. On 8 May 2016, he called for “forgiveness and reconciliation in South Sudan”.291 On 22 May 2016, Riek Machar attended prayers at a predominantly ethnic Dinka church on Sunday, telling the congregation “that peace and reconciliation will enable national healing and ensure stability.”292 He even took on more responsibility in his role as First Vice-President and on 5 June 2016, he took charge of the file for the implementation of the September 2012 cooperation agreements between South Sudan and Sudan, with consensus from President Kiir. However, the evidence from telephone intercepted communications from the same period reveal that Riek Machar as First Vice President of the Transitional Government of National Unity plotted a coup to seize power on 8 July 2016 to fulfil his ambition to become the President of South Sudan. Whilst he was presenting a unified front for the international community, in the background he was at the same time preparing forces in support of the SPLM/A-IO to carry out the coup and used support from a foreign government, the Republic of the Sudan, to provide his forces with the necessary arms and ammunition. As the coup failed at its first attempt during his meeting with President Salva Kiir and Second Vice President James Wanni Igga in the President’s office, Riek Machar never returned to resume the reconciliation talks that had been taking place between the leaders of the TGoNU. Instead, he continued the conflict that caused great loss of life including the deaths of civilians, knowing from his experience over many years of conflicts in South Sudan and Sudan that such killings were bound to take place” (South Sudan Intelligence Report, 2022).

With all of this in mind. We just have to follow Juba and what these two decides to do. It becomes like this… when the R-ARCSS is failing. The SPLM/A-IO or SPLM-IG has to figure out their way forward. Hopefully without ordering war and sending the youth to fight their battles.

President Kiir and First Vice President Machar needs to do the right thing. There is stipulations and protocols for them to follow. They need to find the mechanisms and the forums to find the way of solving this. Because, we can worry that this become to hot and fragile. We know these two can order and fix it.

Machar can be the fall guy for the past transgressions, but we don’t know who ordered the attacks on the bases in Upper Nile and Unity State. As well, as putting Machar under house arrest. While his been asking IGAD to intervene and help out with the lack of progress. The SPLM-IG and SPLM/A-IO needs to find ways to resolve this. I am not saying that is easy and the egos have to be humbled. They need to humiliate themselves and carry possible losses. That for the betterment of the Republic and not over pitiful appointments or transgressions of late. Yes, that is painful, but these are men who can usher in peace in South Sudan.

These two men can be the first to ensure peace and stability in Juba. They can be known for finding peace and creating institutions in the Republic. That’s what they can be known for… but decreeing guns and conflict will only cause more pain and suffering. Which these two should avoid like the plague. Peace.

South Sudan: Dr. Riek Machar Teny is put under house-arrest in Juba

South Sudan’s government has deployed security forces around First Vice President Riek Machar’s house in Juba. Government spokesperson Michael Makuei says the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces and national security forces are being deployed for Machar’s own safety. A signatory to the South Sudan 2018 peace agreement says the implementation of the deal has stalled. Rajab Mohandis says the main body monitoring the deal has done very little to report recent attacks by the South Sudan army on opposition bases across the country. And, some SPLM-IO officials and supporters are calling on the brokers of the revitalized peace deal to intervene immediately, arguing that the agreement is on the verge of collapse” (South Sudan In Focus, 28.03.2022).

Things are really hot in Juba, as both parties are addressing it. SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO have both addressed the movements of the weekend. This Monday isn’t getting better and the ramifications of it is dire. As the SPLM-IG is directing blame and SPLM-IO has asked the IGAD to help to mediate. Clearly, things are going sour, as SPLM-IO has reacted to the recent appointments and purge of opposition generals. Therefore, things are not getting better.

This in combination of the attacks on SPLM-IO bases in the Unity State and Upper Nile State. That is all causing alarm. As SPLM-IO renounced their participation in the R-JMEC and the Technical Committee for implementation of the R-ARCSS.

We are seeing movement that reminds us of 2013 and 2016. The same sorts of actions by both parties. They are skirmishes and movements of troops by the South Sudan People’s Defence Force (SSPDF) against the SPLM/A-IO bases. These are orders by the President… who is already acted with Presidential Decree of appointing people in government without consent or dialogue with fellow signatories.

Machar has been in house-arrest before and what is happening to him isn’t anything new. It is just a new direct assault on him and his party. Therefore, no one should be shocked by this. It is a clear violation and escalation of the state. As it is targeting him and his party, which he has purged generals from in recent time.

We have to see how this goes, but the signs are not any good. Last time in 2016 he fled Juba after 48 hours and got a base of his troops within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). He was later for a long time house arrested in South Africa. This is why he know the price of aiming for power and being a leader of SPLM/A-IO.

He and Kiir needs to talks and settle the grievances before they order a new civil war. Because, this is how it has started before and they not keeping Machar safe, but instead infuriating his troops and his commander. This fragile situation is only getting more torn. That’s what should frighten the President and his government. However, it seems like his thriving on it. Peace.

South Sudan: The President – Salva Kiir Mayardit – Press Statement (28.03.2022)

South Sudan: First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar – Press Release (28.03.2022)

South Sudan: FVP Dr. Riek Machar letter to Sudanese President Al-Burhan with the SPLM/SPLA(IO) Position on Recommitment of Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and Permanent Ceasefire and Security Arrangements (26.03.2022)

South Sudan: SSPDF attacks on President Orders SPLM-IO bases in Upper Nile and Unity State [Alarming escalations and a dire need for talks]

There are frightening news from Juba and South Sudan. This week has been showing the dire side of the Republic. There are movements of both the state and other signatories of the R-ARCSS. As there are appointments and also military moves, which implicates two main culprits. These have sadly fought before and they can easily do it again.

These two leaders within South Sudan is President Salva Kiir Mayardit and First Vice-President Dr. Riek Machar Teny. Both of them have fought and the latest agreement has ceased this since 2018. There have been skirmishes and usage of military within South Sudan. However, not on a scale of a civil war, which was stopped by the Khartoum Declaration and R-ARCSS. Therefore, the need to adhere and implement it is even more important. Because, that is how to build trust and institutions.

What we are reading and seeing is similar to 2013 and 2016. The world and the Republic has seen these sorts of actions done by both parties then. The SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO has both fought each other. Before the agreement Machar had to flee into exile and was stationed outside of South Sudan for a long time. Therefore, these two knows the costs of war and should avoid that by any means. They have seen the costs and the suffering it has caused. Instead of finding solutions and procedures for the future. It is instead trying to get an upper-hand in a supposed election cycle, which haven’t been scheduled or written road-map about. However, the state haven’t implemented the stipulations or prepared the states for an election.

Here is the recent reports over the weekend:

The SPLM-IO has issued a statement rejecting last week’s decree by President Salva Kiir announcing command of the unified forces. SPLM-IO says the President’s decree left out some positions of command” (Radio Miraya, 27.03.2022).

UBA – A South Sudan army general turned member of Pan African parliament has said that ongoing attacks by South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) are attempts to displace members of constituencies in SPLM-IO-controlled areas and manipulate elections in favor of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. There has been fighting in Upper Nile and Unity state where South Sudan army forces in the two states launched attacks on several bases belonging to the main armed opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) led by First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar Teny” (…) “In a statement, Major-General Mabior Riiny Lual, said the ongoing conflict in Upper Nile state is an indication that the SPLM-IG want to go to elections and that the war is a campaign by the Kiir-led army to displace constituencies in opposition-controlled areas so that elections are manipulated in favor of Kiir.“The war in Upper Nile is an indication that there is a determination by SPLM to go for elections. The war is an attempt to displace constituencies of SPLM-IO to discourage them from voting,” he said in a statement seen by Sudans Post on Friday evening” (South Sudan Uncensored – ‘TOP GENERAL SAYS ATTACKS ON SPLA-IO ”IS AN ATTEMPT TO DISPLACE CONSTITUENCIES TO MANIPULATE ELECTIONS” (26.03.2022).

That this is happening now is a worrying sign. The ending of collaborations and working in connection with R-JMEC and other councils from SPLM/A-IO should be a sign of a stalemate. While the President also appoints and leaves out the FVP out of his Presidential Decrees. That is working without the parts of government, which is needed.

This shows that the communication between the parties has stopped and it is more needed than ever. The two leaders needs to talk and secure peace. Instead of continuing to escalate. Innocent lives will be taken and people will die over their power games. Which these two are only gaining. While the Republic is losing in general.

South Sudan doesn’t need more violence and death. Kiir and Machar has been main culprits of conflict. That’s why these two needs to talk and find ways out of this. While we are seeing things that resemble before the R-ARCSS. In 2022 these needs talks and not weapons. The arms and the solo-runs should be over. Time for institutionalization and state building. However, that is going slow, because that will weaken the President and has power. He wants power and ensure he has that indefinitely.

We have to hope that these two finds a way and a forum to meet. Before the attacks and skirmishes escalates further. The state and the President has to ensure the trust. He is the Head of State and if he finds himself in a new civil war because of his pride. Than his self-importance is destructive to the state. Neither is it any good, if Machar cannot try to reach out and show humility. However, these are both men of war and that what they know the most. It has only been a short window without major conflict.

South Sudan needs peace and not war. Peace.

South Sudan: Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM-(IO)) – Press Release (26.03.2022)