SPLM-IO: On the Khartoum Face-to-Face Peace Process (26.06.2018)

Opinion: Did Al-Bashir win today? – Seems like the Nasir Rebellion worked out in his favor!

Today, the release of the Points of Framework Agreement of 25th June 2018 was released. Key sentences from the agreement between Transitional Government of National Unity(TGoNU)/Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army(SPLM/A) of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) of Dr. Riek Machar with oversight of agreement of the Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir. The sentence between these gentlemen that can be put in question is this:

To delegate the government of Sudan to take the necessary steps towards securing oil fields in South Sudan in coordination with the Government of South Sudan, and to work on the rehabilitation of the oil fields with the view to restore previous levels of the oil production. In this context, the outstanding issues between the two sisterly countries of Sudan and South Sudan related to oil sector shall be resolved” (Points of Framework Agreement, 25.06.2018).

Did the Nasir rebellion against Dr. John Garang win did this week? Since the years has gone since Dr. Riek Machar rebelled against Garang with support of Khartoum. Now the Khartoum government clearly has one over the New Sudan and the vision of independent South Sudan. Especially if they are taking more control of the oil sector in both Republics. This is a solid victory for the Warlord of Khartoum. He has solidified his balance and his terms, without doing much of late. His partner and friend Machar has served him a victory. The Nasir Fraction has given way and made sure that support of SPLM/A-IO, the rebellion that started in Nasir in 28th August 1991. That means the battle and support of Al-Bashir was worth it for Machar.

That Kiir and SPLM/A should feel fooled, they should as they we’re battling for independence and control of the oil reserves, but if the agreement is ratified. Than the Khartoum still will have control and the issues of the past will resurface. This is like the past has hit Juba again. The New Sudan has been outsmarted and the plans of interference and using proxy militias has worked for Al-Bashir. The Kiir government are really tarnishing the ideas the of Dr. Garang if he follows these provisions and honors these words. Then the New Sudan is slowing dying, as they are still noble creatures being told what to earn and how much to get by the Khartoum regime.

That this wasn’t what South Sudan fought for, when they fought for secession from Khartoum. They didn’t sign agreements of separation to give securities and the valuable oil be controlled by Al-Bashir. He is getting his will and the Nasir Rebellion has succeeded today.

Especially if the partners are following this or even thinking of implementing this. Certainly, this is disrespectful to long battle for freedom from Khartoum. That the Warlords has possibly traded away the thing of the most value, the oil. The revenue will again be in control from afar.

This is a victory for Khartoum and a loss for Juba. Certainly looks like it to me. The South Sudanese might gotten a cease-fire, but with these provisions. It is surely costly and loss of independence after all. Peace.

South Sudan: Points of Framework Agreement (25.06.2018)

Communique of the 32nd Extra-ordinary Summit of IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government on South Sudan (21.06.2018)

South Sudan: The War-Lords wasn’t ready to speak about Peace!

In South Sudan the prolonged civil war is continuing and with the fresh dialogue between the parties didn’t help. Some had hope that the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – In Government (SPLM-IG) or the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) under the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. He has been ruling and with an iron fist. While the main opposition leader and rebel Dr. Riek Machar are running the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). There is also a coalition of other rebels and opposition, who is the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) of 8 political parties/militias, some of them are run by big men like Dr. Lam Akol (National Democratic Movement – NDM) and Gen. Thomas C. Swaka (National Salvation Front – NAS).

Therefore, the knowledge of delegations from SSOA, TGoNU and SPLM/A-IO in the IGAD High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) that has failed as even the house-arrested Machar couldn’t mend the fences or the idea of peaceful progress. That means the army and militias will continue to fight until they got supremacy.

Some people had hope as Ethiopian Government hosted this 32nd Extra-Ordinary Session in Addis Ababa and the shared arrangement to work on the “Revised Bridging Proposal” for all the stakeholders in the conflict as IGAD prepared for the dialogue this week. Still, that did not make it easier. They have the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) &Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism (CTSAMM). All of these are interfering and monitoring the Republic. This combined with all the NGOs and Bilateral Organizations who support as well. Therefore, the international community is involved in the process. They are bookkeeping and securing needed services in the midst of the civil war, even footing the bills for it all. So the TGoNU can continue their fighting against their opposition.

This combined with various agreements that has not been kept, cease fire violations and such. These War-Lords really has no plan of quitting. They are preoccupied with the continued conflict and the looting of the Republic. There major resources being squandered away, not only seen by the Sentry in their reports, but the Kenyan bloggers are looking into the money laundering and estates owned by the War-Lords from South Sudan. Clearly, they are preoccupied with earning money on the toils and tears created by the conflict. That is why they are afraid of their future if the conflict ends. The guns are speaking their language. Even as the people are still lingering in refugee camps abroad and the Republic has no solution. The leadership isn’t hungry for peace, it is hungry to overcome its advisory.

At this point as the years lingers and the leaders continue to eat of the poverty, the famine and civil-wars, even as the state is bankrupt, creating higher bank-notes and the international community is footing the bills for development and needed supplies in refugee camps. This is clearly not the intention. But that is the sad reality as the innocent are dying and is afraid. The own leadership are holding this on. They are violating agreements or stifling it. If they are not getting their way, they are picking up guns or sending tanks to their yards. That is what happen in 2016, when the 2015 Agreement was starting to be established. However, that only lasted months before the new fresh conflict we are seeing today. Since then, there has been more deflections and more creations of new outfits who wants both Machar and Kiir to step down. However, none of them seems to fit the bill.

The state of affairs is sad. The people deserve peace, but War-Lords are busy finding ways to outsmart the enemies. Instead of dialogue and building real bridges, they are instead blowing them up hoping no-one finds out.

The people of South Sudan deserves better, but the leadership is busy killing each other and trying only to use ammunition to do so. They are not interested in talking. They know the trigger and is ready to aim. Peace.

SPLM/A-IO: On the Reckless Statement of Juba Spokesman – Michael Makuel Lueth (22.06.2018)

SPLM/A-IO: On the Face-to-Face Between President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar Teny-dhuorangun (21.06.2018)

SSOA delegation Meets Dr. Riek Machar in Addis Ababa (20.06.2018)

South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) Press Statement on Dr. Riek Machar attending Peace Talks in Addis Ababa (20.06.2018)

IGAD: A Revised Bridging Proposal On the Outstanding Issues Pertaining to Governance and Security Arrangements in the High Level Revitalization Forum of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (12.06.2018)