MinBane

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Archive for the tag “SPLA/M”

Opinion: Appointing Museveni to mediate anywhere, was bound to go nowhere!

The situation in Burundi, just like the one in the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan can’t be dealt with overnight. Anybody expecting a quick fix is dreaming” – Dr. Okello Oryem

Recently during this week, the Minister of State for International Affairs Okello Oryem has said this. It is very revealing of the arrogance and the stature of the talks, the dialogue and the works done by the Ugandans in the conflicts where the East African Community (EAC) has appointed President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni to be the mediator. I never had faith in Museveni and to this day, I haven’t been wrong about that. Nothing has changed in South Sudan or Burundi, where Museveni is suppose to help changing it and get into a peaceful process. Instead it is more and more volatile.

What the grandest problem with having Museveni as mediator in South Sudan, is that his army is delivering weapons and ammunitions to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, the SPLA and the SPLM/A-IG. They are serving the government with weapons and the technical training, while they are supposed to be there and secure the negotiations to a peaceful place. That is playing with fire and expecting to have the ability to drown it too. Your providing the opportunity for the government to continue to battle the opposition, while being a party at the table negotiating the possible peace agreement. That sounds like a bad mix of sources and interests at play. Museveni should clearly, just be a weapon brother and not a mediator. Someone who isn’t involved in delivering weapons to South Sudan, should mediate and not someone who serves guns to President Salva Kiir Mayardit. That is just wrong and has self interests in prolonging the conflict. He get to trade more weapons and ammo to the government there.

While in Burundi, the Inter-Burundian Dialogue has been directed by the President. A President that helped his fellow President to return in 2015 after a tried Coup d’etat and demonstrations against his third term. That led into bloodshed and also continued oppression of the dissidents inside Burundi. Where the dialogue haven’t materialized into anything, while the ruling regime has held a new referendum and now secured legality of Pierre Nkurunziza to to rule into 2034. Which is insane, when he entered into power, he was only allowed to have two terms, but he has changed the laws just like Museveni.

President Museveni hasn’t stopped the Burundian President and his control of the dialogue, deciding who could participate and when it could happen. Nkurunziza and his administration has totally muffled the Tanzanian chief talker Mpaka. Therefore, now that he has been part of this since 2015, as the African Union, United Nations and East African Commission have all said Museveni should do this. But they never gave him a proper mandate or done anything if Nkurunziza didn’t listen. They sent some police officers and observers at some point after 2015, but nothing has materialized.

Therefore, seems more like Museveni has been appointed and is lucky to shield his friends. Looking like he makes talks, but stalling for times. While both parties in South Sudan and Burundi are allowed to get rid of opposition, they are allowed to get weapons and use scare tactics to get rid of enemies. While he looks at in sometimes blaze some strong words. But Museveni will not act upon it, as they will do talks in secret and secure that Burundi and South Sudan get what they need. To keep the leadership, which is friendly to Museveni. Not to its people, but loyal to him. So he can be the big-man in East Africa. Peace.

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South Sudan: SPLM/SPLA are directing less movement of UNMISS in the country (26.07.2016)

South Sudan Letter 26.07.2016

South Sudan Crisis: Useful forged CIA-Letter of overthrowing the TGNU, Sworn-in Gen. Taban Deng Gai as FVP; Dr. Riek Machar at unknown destination and silencing the will for greater AU Force in South Sudan!

SPLA during a previous function in Juba

There are those day we’re the intelligence are to real or just too good to be true. Central Intelligence Agency of the United States of America had apparently a conspired plan to overthrow the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU) of South Sudan with President Salva Kiir and FVP Dr. Riek Machar. As the letters state in 2015 and 2016; just as the forged letters from SPLM to directly attack SPLM-IO bases as Dr. Riek Machar have fled his home and government position in Juba after the clashes around 7-9 July in the capital.

It is not like US doesn’t have a history of overthrowing and instating puppets in other nations. That is part of their foreign policy of late, neither if they like it or not. It has been for better or worse, even created worse dictators then the ones they have brought down; or like in modern times created power-vacuum in the nations they have brought soldiers into; which last and last as the local forces and militias fight each other as the American armies flee for their unpopular war in the nations and also the cost at home for the American President.

But this isn’t about that, this is how the manufactured letters are setting standard and edge on diplomacy between South Sudan and United States. As the US are part of the Troika, which is United Kingdom (UK) and Norway. They we’re all putting their stakes into the leadership as they wanted to stop the civil war between Khartoum and Juba as the decades of war could stop with a peaceful transition and new government structure of the greater Sudan and the South Sudan. Still, the years after independence have bloody with power-struggle, internally displaced persons and migration to neighbour countries. This is putting an edge on the letter as Dr. Riek Machar haven’t been long in Juba, just putting his men into the Government and Cabinet. Together with stating the codes of the Peace Agreement of 2015 where the parties of SPLM-IO and SPLA/M works for unity and progress of the world’s youngest nation!

taban-deng

Just as the news of Gen. Taban Deng Gai of SPLM-IO have not only been asked for being fired as Minister and kicked out of the party of Dr. Riek Machar; still within hours of that he we’re sworn-in as First Vice-President of the Republic of South Sudan. That is a blow for the SPLM-IO, but the leadership of SPLM-IO should know that Gen. Taban Deng Gai had ambition; even I knew as he spoke in 2015 that he would like a greater role in South Sudan. Apparently, the offer from SPLM we’re too good to turn down.

While that was happening, the news of a CIA letter and the release of it happen online. It just had to happen as the Dr. Riek Machar is hiding in an unknown place. The CIA letter talking about planned overthrow of the government; just what a government need to pull the strings and use force against an enemy, even use the enemies as pushing away other fractions that are troubling for the government. So if that was the goal of the new TGNU of South Sudan. That would been the gift and the worthy price as they also could condemn one of their major donors of acts against sovereign will. Not only use it as a tool against accepting African Union or bigger Peacekeeper Force in the nation. Something that interferes with the SPLA already!

South Sudan CIA Letter 2016

But take a look!

News from 2012:

“In a response to written questions from The Washington Post, the U.S. Africa Command said that it would not comment on “specific operational details.” (…) “We do, however, work closely with our African partners to facilitate access, when required, to conduct missions or operations that support and further our mutual security goals,” the command said. Surveillance and intelligence-gathering operations, it added, are “simply a tool we employ to enable host nation militaries to better understand the threat picture.” (Whitlock, 2012).

Important information about troops in Juba:

“In order to keep the Embassy open, on July 12 a small contingent of U.S. military personnel deployed to Juba to assist the Embassy in temporarily bolstering its security and assisting with the departure of non-emergency personnel. The additional U.S. troops in Juba and those dispatched to neighboring countries are there only to protect the Embassy and American citizens who are leaving South Sudan because of the conflict. Citizens of Juba can expect to see a rotation in military personnel during the week of July 18. This rotation of troops is to replace not reinforce the number of military personnel. All of the additional troops will return home when the need for additional security no longer exists”(U.S. Department of State, 2016).

Mark Toner the U.S. Spokesman said this today:

“Any suggestion that the United States has done so or will do so is false, baseless, and not in the interest of peace in South Sudan” (…) “Why would someone circulate a document like that, because I know your listeners understand it is a ridiculous and untrue assertion. I think someone is trying to hurt the historic and deep relationship between the United States and South Sudan” (Radio Tamzuj, 2016).

South Sudan CIA Letter 2016 P2

If you still believe the letters and take them as true facts. Then your conspiracy theories are too deep and your mind is already set to the fiction. There are true as stated US have toppled governments before, but this was one we’re unlikely. The question that should be asked who would earn political coinage on the letters and their rhetoric as a quest to questions the rulers right now? Who would gain political and military advantage of using a made up enemy?

If you answer those, you might be close to the real deal and the limitation of coverage on the matter. As the crisis is not over, even with the change of FVP, the answer from SPLM-IO shows there are more things to come. Hopefully not a UPDF on steroids defending SPLA and President Kiir; but that has happen before and the oil-money from South Sudan is pleasing the cow-farmer from Uganda. Peace.

Reference:

Radio Tamazuj – ‘U.S. State Department says report about CIA secret operations ‘baseless’’ (27.07.2016) link: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/article/us-state-department-says-report-about-cia-secret-operations-baseless

U.S. Department of State – ‘United States Reassures Support to South Sudan (17.07.2016) link: http://m.state.gov/md260155.htm

Whitlock, Craig – ‘U.S. expands secret intelligence operations in Africa’ (12.07.2012) link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-expands-secret-intelligence-operations-in-africa/2012/06/13/gJQAHyvAbV_story.html

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