The secretive Department for Exiting the European Union (DEXEU) and Cabinet Secretary David Davis has hold a secret since January 2018, as of today the folders to ‘EU Exit Analysis Cross Whitehold Briefing’ was released online. Surely, the Conservatives and DUP must take people’s for fools, thinking these results would fly under radar and not be scrutinized. I will take certain ones from this. Just to prove how much hurt the public could get by leaving the EU. I am glad I am not British, while reading this one, but not many would have looked there if it were not for Member of Parliament, who took page by page and leaked them too.
Depending on what sort of a trade arrangement the United Kingdom gets with their partners, if it’s a EEA deal, Florence Type Arrangement and WTO Agreement with the EU. No matter what, the fall and the costs will be massive. The industries of chemicals, food and drink, clothes, manufacturing, cars and retail will be hit by the time of the exit. Certainly, like chemical industry and their percentages of loss could be between 16% and 2%. The biggest loss would be in the WTO deal, the non-deal with EU. Food and Drinks industry could lose between 10% and 2 %. Also depending on which deal. Both of these shows the massive backlash it has and how the cuts will be. Since the industries will both lose big profits and margins, which they cannot uphold by the status quo arrangements!
Those results are striking and proving how little benefit it is to leave and create a tariff border with the EU. They are really pulling efforts to make things more expensive and harder, just the tariffs alone will hurt the exports and the imports to the UK. Since the cost will be put on the consumer, and the EU trading partners might choose other cheaper produce from elsewhere. Since the tariffs on UK cheese is too high and the Swiss one cost less. The estimated tariffs on agriculture in EEA deal is zero, but the FTA is 26.1% and WTO is 26.1% and that is massive rise of prices. On Beverages, Tobacco and Food, the EEA is Zero, while the FTA is 12.7% and WTO is 12.7%. Both of these are showing the high risking prices and effects it could have on the market.
IF you believed the Tories and the campaigners that it wouldn’t be costly to move away and that the UK would earn on the leaving. You we’re duped, you were fooled and the hatred ate you. It will cost and with time it has been evident, as even the industry and the Financial Business Community is planning to flee. That will cost even more, as more jobs are fleeing to Union Financial Districts, to be sure they can trade services without having a hectic international tariffs and waivers to get it through! That is what will happen when the EU and UK departs from each other.
The new regulatory environment plus the taxations of the services after leaving will be hectic. The added pressure and the lack of movement of staff, can also hinder the will of doing business in the UK. They are really biting the hands that feeds itself. The wisdom hasn’t sunk in yet, but the numbers are bad, it will not be a smooth ride and the cost will all be put on the British and their consumers. It will not be walk in the park; it will be a steep mountain of hurt. Peace.
The European Union or parts of it the European Commission has made their draft agreement on the withdrawal of United Kingdom as a Member State within the Union. This draft document will say many things, but I will focus on the ones that I see fitting and important. Therefore, this will not be the whole picture, but outtakes. That is see as significant for Europeans and the British as well. Since this will affect the realities of the citizens on the continent, as well as the boundaries it creates.
This document is significant, because it says what the EU expects of it all and puts everything into play. It set standards of what the European Commission and their technocrats wants to ensure. This is so the liabilities and the stakeholders of the Union, will know every single step and manners they perceive as important, which also should matter to the United Kingdom. Because they are the ones that is initially leaving, but it is just the matter of how. With time haven’t become clearer from their part, but more foggy as the shadow-games of the Tories Government isn’t supplying the world with clear communication of what they want or see as their future on the outside.
What is the most important piece of it is the ways the EU are cooperating with the will of the Republic of Ireland and the relationship it needs with Northern Ireland and the UK. Clearly stated in the draft is the provisions, that is clear, that the EU is not set for a hard-Brexit in this concern, as the Irish will have a special conditions and provisions, ensuring that the state of affairs stays as today. They are ensuring that the EU Draft is not in violation of the Good Friday Agreement, which shows the maturity of the EU in this sense. Now people should just worry if the UK government want to alter or change it for their own personal gain or not. Since, this is leaving the Irish problem settled and made sure they get what is needed comparing to old agreements between all parties involved.
“NOTING that Union law has provided a supporting framework to the provisions on Rights, Safeguards and Equality of Opportunity of the 1998 Agreement; UNDERLINING that part or all of this Protocol may cease to apply should a future agreement between the Union and the United Kingdom be agreed which addresses the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, including by avoiding a hard border and protecting the 1998 Agreement in all its dimensions” (EU, P: 99, 2018).
“The United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (the “Common Travel Area”), while fully respecting the rights of natural persons conferred by Union law” (…) “A common regulatory area comprising the Union and the United Kingdom in respect of Northern Ireland is hereby established. The common regulatory area shall constitute an area without internal borders in which the free movement of goods is ensured and North-South cooperation protected in accordance with this Chapter” (EU, P: 100, 2018).
This part of the agreement will hurt the Brexiteers, who want a full breakout of the EU, this will give leeway to a lot of speculations, as the ERG inside the Tories will not accept this sort of arrangement. Even if this is positive news for the EU friendly parts of the Kingdom. However, this should be seen as a victory for Dublin, as well as Belfast. Even if the DUP might not be in favour and they are vital to London these days.
This leaves and follows the agreement made not too long ago and pursuits the same arrangements as today, concerning the needs of Dublin and Belfast. We will see if this will backfire for Theresa May and her unknown project, as the inner-party of Tories is conflicted with itself and the costs of the Brexit. Clearly, the state is unsure and not bringing certainties, the EU on the other hand is showing the steps and has no issues flaunting it. While the Tories has tried to keep this inside the party and not letting anyone now. Therefore, trying to damage control, instead of deciding how to negotiate.
This is showing that the EU want to respect the Good Friday Agreement, the Irish problem of the Brexit and handling it with maturity, however, will do Tories answer with the same or are they stuck with DUP and ERG who wants to make the Brexit even harder. With strong borders and no CTA and specialized Customs Union for the Irish. Time will tell, but this was a breath of fresh air. Peace.
European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community (28.02.2018)
This wasn’t surprising since the hidden reports from the Department for Existing the European Union (DexEU), the Secretary David Davis and Prime Minister Theresa May wanted this hidden. Because they knew these numbers and the speculations would stop. I was expecting bad numbers, but these are serious consequences. While the campaigning for leaving seemingly like it was a pick and mix. Now the reality is there. The United Kingdom will loose out and hit the people in real way. The independence might be there, but the economy and the hardships starts when they have left. The Tories must have been worried about it, because they knew about the damage this can cause to the public. The rich will skate off to a tax-haven. If it is the British Virgin Island or Cayman Islands. Who knows, but this has been all hidden because they knew they we’re hurting themselves.
I will take the numbers crushed from Britain Stays, which has analyzed the numbers so they give a meaning. I’m not a grand fan of EU, but I don’t like people are without knowledge of the consequences of their actions. Which the politicians in the UK did to their people when they had their referendum. So the people voted blindly without knowing the possible outcome. The Brexit will cost.
First deal is the famous “No-Deal” will give an 8% lower GDP, a total of 2,800,000 jobs lost and an economy losing 156b pounds. If that isn’t dire a consequence, let me put it in perspective. Since the population numbers of UK of 2016 said there was living in Birmingham (1,200,000), Glasgow (800,000) and Leeds (760,000). So all of these major towns would be ghost-towns with no jobs. That says the possible “No-Deal”, no work for the population of cities or towns of Birmingham, Glasgow and Leeds. If that isn’t worrying, and sending you a signal of how bad it is. Then your blind to amount of people hurt by this sort of policy with the EU.
Second deal is the Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, which means being outside the Single Market and Customs Union. It will lower the GDP with 5% and economy will go down with 99b pounds yearly. The job losses here too is significant, the numbers are estimated to be 1,750,000 jobs gone. That is like all people living in Birmingham (1,200,000), Sheffield (518,000) and Hucknall (32,000). So you cannot say this deal is good for the United Kingdom either, its better, but not all roses and candy either.
Third deal is the infamous “Soft Brexit” where the UK will be in the Single Market through the EEA, a place where UK cannot make the rules and have any say within the EU. This will damage the economy too, but less. First it will damage the GDP by 2% and loose 39bn pounds yearly. The amount of job-loss is estimated to be 700,000 jobs. To put it into perspective its the amount of people living in Bristol (617,000) and Burnley (82,000). So the losses aren’t as big, but the estimates and pain of it is still dear. Not even this one is a good idea.
Fourth deal is “Remain”, the one giving up the whole thing and continuing like it is. Where the GDP will remain at the levels it is the day and it will not have any impact on the current work market. No one will lose their jobs and prepare any ghost-towns.
Even me who is not a fan of the EU and the whole ordeal can see easily after the assessment reports that been hidden from the public on purpose. Because this is damaging information. The sort of tales that should shatter the glasses and break the pulse. Will the Tories really hurt the amounts of people combining the cities of Birmingham, Glasgow and Leeds. Is that the final destination or will they make it less costly?
These numbers should be carefully understood and put in perspective to prove the danger of Brexit. Not just think that Independence is all cool, but also that it costs. Not just for poorest, but for whole towns and cities. We can ask how much poison is the British people about to take or wanting to take? Peace.
The NRM Day, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) day, the Liberation Day. The day that the National Resistance Army liberated Uganda. Are in the making and being prepared so that the President can hold his speech and be crowded by his soldiers, his Crime Preventers and who ever he has bought out from obscurity in the recent months.
So the news today, was rare or unique. It is more of the same. That other people are not allowed. It is just like when he hold the State of Nation Address, all channels and broadcast on TV and Radio had to send his speech. The same can surely also happen in this instance. Because the only man who is clearly free and can be opinionated is Museveni. The rest have to follow his suit and his orders. The State House commands. So that the President and his men, are now putting orders on how they are celebrating the 32nd Liberation Day isn’t surprising. It follows a pattern of control from above, from His Excellency, who cannot be that excellent, when he has to micro-manage every detail and get everyone in-line for every event. Every function and every order, has to be rubber-stamped by him. It’s just his despotic mind, who speaks democracy, but orders everyone around and wants everybody to accept his hollow mind. That is just the way it is, so when Daily Monitor says this today:
“The government has cautioned the opposition and any other groups against any plot to hold parallel liberation day celebrations. The caution was sounded by the minister for presidency Esther Mbayo during a press conference at media centre ahead of the celebrations slated for Friday January 26, 2018. She said every time government organizes a national function, there are groups that threaten to organized parallel arrangements. She said this will not be tolerated this time round. “I am just warning whoever is organizing to stage a parallel function to desist from it because the long arm of the law will catchup with him,” minister Mbayo said. She said there will be only one national function accepted that day and it will be held at Boma grounds in Arua Municipality. “So whoever wants to stage parallel arrangements should stand warned,” Mbayo said” (Jumbe, 2018).
This is the memo, the gist and the story. That the Minister Mbayo is warning and coming with stern signals of how to behave. The public can only have one key celebration, nothing in Kololo or on another field. The only one matter at Boma Ground in Arua. The rest has to cease, where the President is, is the only place to be liberated, the others have to follow orders and be under the spell of the President. No freedom, no celebration in Kampala, Jinja or Mbarara, no no, only celebrate in Arua at Boma Ground.
The Liberation Day celebration only matters at the function of the President. If he isn’t there, it doesn’t matter. It is not about liberation, if the supposed liberator isn’t there. The kingpin of the NRA has to be at the function if it supposed to have any value. President Museveni have to show up and be graceful, spill his beans and everyone got to listen to his wisdom. If not, they are not liberated. The liberation was for him and his men, not for the republic. The people was just tools for his liberation. Therefore, a party is only a party, if he started or joined the party. Peace.
Jumbe, Benjamin – ‘No parallel liberation day celebrations shall be allowed – govt’ (26.01.2018) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/No-parallel-celebrations-shall-be-allowed-govt/688334-4276634-ioin6/index.html)
David Davis, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union and running the Department for Exiting the European Union (DEXEU) who is working for a sustainable and as good as possible agreement between United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU). Even as all the months has passed and the EU and UK came with a Joint Report last week, ending the Phase 1 of Negotiations. Still, that doesn’t seem enough for the Secretary Davis. Who has concurred differently apparently, as the EU and UK should be focused on ironing out more difference and making sure their status is good after the departure of Membership by the UK. Seemingly, Davis is more busy creating more havoc.
On a BBC Interview at the Andrew Marr show on the 10th December 2017, he answered this:
“it’s been made clear by Number 10 already, so that’s not actually new. The second element about this is the other areas. Now look, one of the things we have had as a major objective, a major negotiating objective for the British government and we don’t normally lay our red lines out in public, that’s one of
the things I’ve always said, is we want to protect the peace process and we also want to protect Ireland from the impact of Brexit for them. So we – you know – this was a statement of intent more than anything else. It was much more a statement of intent than it was a legally enforceable thing” (BBC, Andrew Marr Show, 2017).
So he significantly downplayed the joint report that was fixed between UK and EU that was signed on the 8th December 2017. Therefore, it just took two days after signing and agreeing between the partners, before the one leaving downplayed the whole agreement between them.
The start of that agreement specify this:
“This report is put forward with a view to the meeting of the European Council (Article 50) of 14-15 December 2017. Under the caveat that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, the joint commitments set out in this joint report shall be reflected in the Withdrawal Agreement in full detail. This does not prejudge any adaptations that might be appropriate in case transitional arrangements were to be agreed in the second phase of the negotiations, and is without prejudice to discussions on the framework of the future relationship” (EU/UK, 2017).
Seemingly, the Secretary is not so good with details, since the Joint Report will be reflected in the Withdrawal Agreement, meaning that the words and the specifics be a bit altered, but the reality is that the ideals of the Joint Report will be mirrored in the end. Therefore, the words of David Davis is reckless. Considering the commitments the United Kingdom has done by signing and agreeing on the Joint Report. Its like he brushing over the importance of ending Phase I to join the negotiations at Phase II.
That is why European Union are striking back at this towards Davis, who clearly doesn’t what his actions does to the Union they are leaving. This are joint resolutions that are attacking and addressing the misconceptions of Davis. First amendment made by the Joint MEPs which says:
“Is of the opinion that the report allows for the negotiations to move on to the second phase and recommends that the European Council acts accordingly, but believes that negotiations must be connected in good faith and is or the opinion that negotiations can only progress during the second phase if the UK government also fully respect the commitments it made in the Joint Report and they are fully translated into the draft Withdrawal Agreement” (Joint Motion for Article 2 on the state of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom, 2017).
So the MEPs of European Union in various parties are reacting with force and wanting the EU to sanction the words writing the Joint Report and take it seriously. But they have more important issue to amend:
“Whereas comments made like those by David Davis calling the outcome of phase I of the negotiations a mere “statement of intent”, risk to undermine the good faith that has been built during the negotiations” (Joint Motion for Resolution on the state of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom, 2017).
Clearly, the EU is not having it with this sort of foul play. They are not accepting any cheap trick concerning the withdrawal of UK. The EU MEPs and leaders who has written these motions to secure the developments are moving forward and with respect to the things already agreed upon. We can see that David Davis wasn’t acting wise, when he is trying to forge an agreement that fits both parties. Clearly, Davis are only thinking of his own career and not of how it makes him look elsewhere.
That Theresa May has something to answer for in Brussels later this week is clearly. When Phase II is coming and the secretary in charge from their negotiation team has made a mockery of the Phase I. He did it on BBC and on a live TV-show. Typical recklessness of the Brexiteers and their campaigns too. Just like they did with facts concerning the Brexit before the polls as well. Same thing, just more dire now, since the opposite party, the one they are leaving will not be so helpful if you disgrace them days ahead of negotiations.
However, Davis like to put some more gasoline on the fire and see how much it burns. At least that is how it looks like and with his previous actions as well. Instead of acting with some tact and some consideration. He is blatantly undermining the efforts done by both EU and UK. This could have been a good start for Phase II and the needed details before an agreement. Therefore, the reflection of the Joint Report shall and should naturally be a part of the Withdrawal Agreement. It is not just a mere statement, it is the pre-binding text for the coming agreement. Putting context and perspective on how the actual agreement will be. Peace.
EU/UK – ‘Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom’s orderly withdrawal from the European Union’ (08.12.2017)