Drought in the Horn of Africa: New Analyses Flag Mounting Risks, Need to Support Rural Families (11.02.2022)

A drought picture from a previous drought in Somalia (sometime in 2016)

FAO senior officials visit affected areas in the rush to save lives and livelihoods.

NAIROBI, Kenya, February 11, 2022 – An extended, multi-season drought is driving acute food insecurity in the Horn of Africa, with 12 to 14 million people now at risk as crops continue to wither and animals weaken, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and partners warned today.

Resource-based conflicts are escalating as competition for water and pasturelands increases, and malnutrition rates are rising in affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, highlighting the need to sustain the rural livelihoods that underpin peace and food security across the Horn.

At a briefing to international donors in Nairobi, FAO and its partners reported that the food security outlook in the region will be highly dependent on the performance of the upcoming rainy season, with forecasts currently uncertain.

In a worst-case scenario in which the rains completely fail and agricultural-dependent communities do not receive adequate support, the number of highly food insecure people could climb to 15-20 million – with some worst-affected households facing “catastrophic” hunger conditions.

“Drought cycles are intensifying and occurring with greater frequency. Immediate humanitarian action to support farmers and herders is needed now,” said Bechdol, after visiting Kenyan communities where goats and cows are dying from lack of water and pasture. “The international community has a narrow window to prevent a major humanitarian catastrophe here,” she said.

“Alarm bells have already been rung – scaled-up action is needed now,” said Phiri. “FAO carried out anticipatory actions during the latter half of 2021 in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia to mitigate the impacts of drought on over one million rural people and so far a crisis has been mitigated. But much more is needed as the situation deteriorates and as crisis looms,” he said.

A plan to help rural families cope 

Under FAO’s new Horn of Africa Drought Response Plan, $130 million is urgently needed to provide time-critical assistance to highly vulnerable communities in drought-hit regions of the three countries. The plan supports the production of up to 90 million litres of milk and up to 40 000 tonnes of staple food crops in the first part of 2022, putting over one million highly-food insecure people on a safe footing.

For pastoralist families, FAO aims to deliver animal feed and nutritional supplements, provide mobile veterinary health clinics, transport 10 000 litre collapsible water reservoirs to remote areas, and upgrade existing wells to run on solar power.

For farming families, FAO aims to distribute drought-tolerant early-maturing varieties of sorghum, maize, cowpea and other beans and vegetables.

FAO is also carrying out cash transfers and cash-for-work programmes to ensure the most vulnerable can access food.

Additional new analysis published on Thursday from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) for Somalia, hosted by FAO, shows that in Somalia alone, the number of acutely food insecure people (IPC Phase 3 and 4) is expected to increase from 3.5 to 4.1 million between January and March 2022, if humanitarian assistance is not received on time.

FAO’s Deputy Director-General, Beth Bechdol; Subregional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, David Phiri; and Director of Emergencies and Resilience, Rein Paulsen have just completed a visit to Kenya to raise awareness on the drought and see FAO’s vital response in action, including in Isiolo and Marsabit counties in the north.

South Sudan: UN Human Rights Experts warn of increased political violence and polarisation in South Sudan, at conclusion of visit to the country (11.02.2022)

South Sudan: South Sudan United Front/Army (SSUF/A) – Ref: Condolence Massege (02.02.2022)

Opinion: The Rebel born out of War is set to create Peace [according to IGAD]

The executive secretary of IGAD requested the President to intervene and help IGAD find a long-lasting solution to conflicts in some of its member states and he agreed to do so, they asked the President to intervene and help resolve the conflicts because of his experience in leadership and conflict resolution but he said he can’t do it as singlehandedly, he needs to engage other leaders in the region” – Mr Faruk Kirunda, the deputy presidential press secretary of IGAD (01.01.2022) – (Stephen Otage & Paul Adude – ‘Museveni to mediate Sudan, Ethiopia conflict’ 02.02.2022, Daily Monitor).

This is actual disbelief. Not that this idea is anything new. They used President Yoweri Tibuhurwa Kaguta Museveni in the Inter-Burundian Dialogue, which was a travesty of a diplomatic mission and also used his tricks in the 2018 in South Sudan. Therefore, some might say his the right guy, but I beg to differ.

This man has sent soldiers all across the board. This President has used warfare to help his causes. To install puppets and his head of state’s elsewhere. Museveni have used violence, warfare and fierce conflicts to get on top. It is not like Museveni came with peace and peace endured. No, he prolonged warfare in Northern Uganda for years… and he could have silenced the guns earlier.

Museveni has spoken with double tongue so many times. If it was in relations to the genocide in Rwanda and getting Kagame into office in Kigali. The manner of which he took down Mobutu Sese Seko in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Neither will we need to discuss how he used militias and military operations to bring down Laurent Kabila in the DRC. There is also speculations in his involvement in South Sudan founding father Joseph Garang.

That’s why I have hard time believing in a man that couldn’t even honour the Nairobi Peace Accord of 17th December 1985. It was just the next month and a momentum, which brought him into power. Therefore, he celebrated NRM at 36th Year Celebration on the 26th January 2022 in honour of the takeover and coup d’etat on the 26th January 1986.

So, that man… who used military means and conflict to rise to the top. Is the man that the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) trusts to mediate and help solving conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia. This man is the wrong one and the most insincere one.

Since, during the mediation in South Sudan in 2018. He sent snipers and was the arms-dealer of the state. While trading arms to them not only during an arms embargo, but holding talks at the State House with various of fractions within the conflict there. That is the sort of fella Museveni and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

Museveni supports para-military groups and insurgencies, when it benefits him and his allies. He has done it countless of times in the DRC and it will not stop. That is the sort of President he is. So, I have a hard time to believe him to be neither neutral or seeking peace. He will find ways to make the current leaders free and ensure the big-men in their respective strongholds. Just like he supported President Salva Kiir Mayardit in South Sudan and only held a few meeting at the State House with other parties.

Therefore, having Museveni to play parley and peace is the wrong person to do so. The President hasn’t been sincere and a known liar. So, this man shouldn’t be trusted and his objectivity is usually questionable at best.

The IGAD should seek more qualified and less questionable leader to mediate in conflicts, as this man will not solve anything. Alas, he will only prolong the agony and find ways to benefit from the things happening himself. That’s the sort of man he is and Museveni shouldn’t be anywhere close to the stakeholders in Sudan or mediate in the conflict in Ethiopia.

If Museveni was supposed to do so, I would expect him to gracefully get visit from Transitional Sovereign Council at the State House of Entebbe and bash in their glory. While accepting all stipulations and ideals of army commanders of Khartoum. As Museveni wouldn’t challenge or seek talks from Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) or any of the other civilian Resistance Committee’s, which is on the streets demonstrating for a civilian elected government. Therefore, it would be half-assed and a lie. Where the President and his Vice would get play, but the others wouldn’t even be touched…

If he would be like this in concern to Sudan. How do you think he would be, in consideration with the stakeholders and the parties of the conflict in Ethiopia? Secondly, who believes the Prime Minister Abiy will even talk or negotiate with Tigray/Oromo leadership, which he has fallen out from. Therefore, Museveni … will not be the guy or the mediator the world needs.

Museveni will not solve or resolve things. No, he will only make a splash, hold hands and sing Kum Ba Yah around the tent-fire. However, don’t expect him to single-handedly make a difference. No, he will just find ways to profit from the situation himself. That is what he does… and that’s the sinister truth in all of this. Peace.

South Sudan: Western Equatoria State – Governor’s Office – Press Release (22.01.2022)

South Sudan: Ministry of General Education and Instruction – Press Statement by Hon. Wut Deng Acuil, on Education conditional transfers to the Ten States and the Three Administrative Areas (21.01.2022)

South Sudan: Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/SPLA(IO) – Chairman & Commander-In-Chief FVP Riek Machar letter to All Units (17.01.2022)

South Sudan: Sudan Embassy Juba – Press Release (13.01.2022)

South Sudan: Khartoum Peace Agreement (KPA) – Between the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement – In Government and The Agwelek Forces (16.01.2022)

South Sudan: Agreement between the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement In Government (SPLM-IG) and the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement/Army In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) Kit-Gwang on Status of Forces (16.01.2022)