Statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary on the current drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (08.02.2017)

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The Drought Situation

The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a major drought resulting from La Niña and reduced moisture influx due to the cooling of the ocean water in the east African coast. Whilst Member States of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are adept at managing droughts, what makes the current drought alarming in the Equatorial Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is that it follows two consecutive poor rainfall seasons in 2016 and the likelihood of depressed rainfall persisting into the March – May 2017 rainfall season remains high. The most affected areas include, most of Somalia, South-eastern Ethiopia, Northern Eastern and coastal Kenya, and Northern Uganda.

The climate predictions and early warnings produced by IGAD through advanced scientific modeling and prediction tools, which were provided to Member States and the general public, have elicited early actions (preparedness and mitigation measures). Highly comparable to the 2010 GHA drought, the current depressed rainfall and resultant poor vegetation conditions since March 2016 eroded the coping and adaptive capacities of the affected people. It also depleted water points, reduced crops, forages and livestock production, increased food insecurity, and adversely affected the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the region.

The number of food insecure human population in the region is currently estimated at 17 million. Certain areas in South Sudan and Djibouti are already under an emergency food insecurity phase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification scale. In Somalia, the number of food insecure people doubled in the last year alone.

In the drought affected cropping lands (over Deyr area in Somalia and coastal Kenya), 70 to 100 percent crop failure has been registered. Livestock mortality has been particularly devastating amongst small ruminants with mortality rate ranging from 25 to 75 percent in the cross border areas of Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia. In addition, livestock prices have dropped by as much as 700 percent.

Terms of trade have declined in the region, with Ethiopia registering a figure of almost 10 percent. This is exacerbated by a substantial negative impact on external balances, as well as a small impact on financial sector-soundness in the other countries. The overall impact on fiscal positions is a likely increase in current budget spending and deterioration in the fiscal balance and weak adaptation capacity.

Despite the downtrend in global agriculture commodity prices, the drought has resulted in an increase in domestic food prices in the region. Cereal prices (e.g. maize) have gone up by about 130 percent, while those of critical food items such as oils, beans and wheat flour increased by at least 50 percent in some pastoralist areas. The limited financial and institutional capacity for effective adaptation to reduce exposure and vulnerability will result in limited safety net to the most vulnerable households.

Drought Response in the Horn of Africa

With the early warning and technical assistance provided by IGAD, Member States have initiated early action to mitigate the adverse impact of the current drought.

Somalia and South Sudan have declared drought emergencies. Kenya announced a doubling of expenditure on food relief to ease the pressure in the drought-affected counties, while Uganda shifted some of its development resources to finance emergency response in order to address food insecurity and livelihood protection. In Somalia, the President of the Federal Republic, as well as state and regional administrations led the issuance of appeals for support and coordinated actors and efforts that scaled-up food security activities to respond to the humanitarian needs of the country.

The USD 730 million allocated by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia boosted the response effort which, coupled by an above-average meher harvest, resulted to an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of food insecure people, for example, from 10.2 million to 5.6 million.

IGAD continues to reinforce the actions of its Member States using them as guide for complementary action on drought responses. Below are some of the major actions being undertaken by the IGAD Secretariat and its specialized institutions to manage the drought in the region:

  • Through its specialized institutions, IGAD continues to monitor and provide analysis of the evolving situation and advise Member States and the general public on measures to mitigate its impact. The 45th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 45), which ends today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will present the consensus climate outlook for the next season (March – May 2017) and its likely impact on disaster risk management, livestock production, water, energy and health etc.
  • A multi- humanitarian coordination mechanism led by IGAD that includes UN agencies, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and other Non-State Actors (NSAs) is effectively working to coordinate the response effort, as well as guide the recovery process once the situation stabilizes.
  • IGAD is also working with relevant national authorities, UN agencies and CSOs in each member state on the development of an Integrated Regional Appeal that will articulate the priority initiatives within the response plan for each Member State.
  • Furthermore, IGAD will support institutional arrangements and capacity building that needs to be in place to allow humanitarian response plans to be implemented in timely, effective manner.
  • A regional Ministerial Meeting will be convened by IGAD at the end of this month to launch the Integrated Regional Appeal and secure financial resources, which further complements the response undertaken by national authorities and humanitarian and development partners, while at the same time building resilience to climate-induced disasters.

Through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) Platform, the ultimate purpose and objective of IGAD and its Member States is to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters through building resilience of relevant national institutions, communities and people, to end drought emergencies and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the region.

In this regard, IGAD will remain vigilant in monitoring and advising the people of the region on the drought situation through its’ specialized institution, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) domiciled in Nairobi, and shall continue to support and complement regional and national actions on drought response and recovery.

South Sudan: Upper Nile Operations worrying (09.02.2017)

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On 8 February, UNMISS received reports of hostilities between the government SPLA and opposition forces in Owachi and Tonga, Panyinkang County.

JUBA, South Sudan, February 9, 2017 -Fighting in the west bank of the River Nile in the north of South Sudan has reached what the head of the UN mission in the country (UNMISS), David Shearer has described as “worrying proportions.”

What began with an exchange of fire between SPLA and Aguelek opposition forces, has expanded geographically. Military resupplies have since been observed arriving in the area.

Humanitarian workers have been evacuated and aid is not being provided

On 8 February, UNMISS received reports of hostilities between the government SPLA and opposition forces in Owachi and Tonga, Panyinkang County.

Military operations on the west bank of the Nile river are taking place in an area where people, predominantly from the Shilluk ethnic group live, forcing people out of their homes.

The town of Wau Shilluk town is now reported to be deserted.

Humanitarian workers have been evacuated and aid is not being provided.

Statement by Adama Dieng, United Nations Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, on the situation in South Sudan (07.02.2017)

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[New York, 7 February 2017] The Special Adviser of the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide, Adama Dieng, expressed grave concern at the continued level of violence in several areas of South Sudan. “President Salva Kiir has made a commitment to end the violence and bring about peace, yet we still see ongoing clashes, and the risk that mass atrocities will be committed remains ever-present,” said the Special Adviser. The peace process has yet to be accompanied by a complete cessation of hostilities, undermining the likelihood that the National Dialogue proposed by the Government will be seen as credible.

More than 52,000 South Sudanese fled to Uganda in January alone, coming primarily from areas in and around Yei, Morobo, Lainya and Kajo-Keji. Some 24,000 arrived between 25 and 31 January, of which 4,500 arrived in a single day, on 28 January. Many have given accounts of the killing of civilians, destruction of homes, sexual violence, and looting of livestock and property, and cite fear of arrest and torture.

The Special Adviser is particularly alarmed at the situation in Kajo-Keji, Central Equatoria, (south of Juba), where civilians have fled in fear of violence en masse. The access of the United Nations peacekeeping mission to and around Kajo-Keji has reportedly been restricted despite the serious security situation, as peacekeepers were initially blocked from accessing the area.

The freedom of movement of residents has also reportedly been limited. Some have reportedly been instructed to leave Kajo-Keji. Others who fled their homes and moved towards the border area between South Sudan and Uganda were reportedly intercepted by government forces. Those seeking refuge report using a number of informal border crossing points to enter Uganda, as armed groups are preventing the use of major roads, forcing them to travel through the bush often without access to food and water.

Various areas in the Equatorias, among other regions, have been similarly targeted, and some 20,000 people were displaced from Wau Shilluk in Upper Nile in the last week, following violence that left many without emergency health care, safe drinking water, food and shelter.

In November 2016, the Special Adviser drew attention to the dire situation in Yei River State, following his visit to Yei River town, where credible information suggested that a scorched earth campaign was underway, targeting suspected opposition members and civilian communities believed by authorities to be their supporters. He reported the expulsion of farmers from their land, looting of property and burning of villages, as well as brutal violence against civilians.

Despite extensive discussions in the United Nations Security Council in November and December 2016 on a proposal to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan and increase targeted sanctions, agreement was not reached on either proposal.  In the meantime, weapons have continued to flow into the country.

In the margins of the January 2017 African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and the United Nations in a joint statement expressed their deep concerns over the continuing spread of fighting and risk of inter-communal violence escalating into mass atrocities. “If South Sudan is to achieve peace,” the Special Adviser affirmed, “all belligerents must urgently cease hostilities and invest in the peace process to settle their differences, before the territorial fragmentation and destruction of the social fabric of this young country become irreversible.”

South Sudan: Gok State Minister John Marik Makur resigns from government as his efforts are thwarted!

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The Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) has yet again lost a state minister, as John Marik Makur has left his office in the Gok State. The reasons are underneath and the turmoil and uncertainty must be a reason for why State Ministers are leaving their offices in South Sudan. Here is his statement.

Gok State minsiter of Education, Gender and Social Welfare have resign. John Marik Makur said: “After having reviewed and evaluated over the past ten months as a minister; numerous aspects of our morale and constitutional responsibilities towards service delivery and development to our communities, which apparently not realized and mainly attributed to manners and ways of your leadership. Therefore, I concluded that my contributions and many vital projects developed by the institution (ministry of physical infrastructure) I led; were consistently not awarded or deliberately ignored and quite often were passed over or misdirected. Therefore, I felt to have sufficient grounds to honorably submit this resignation for no other reasons than personal convictions. It is also a great opportunity for your leadership to move on with new and energetic team so as to give our state a new light of hope for development and progress” (Manyang Mayom, 06.02.2017).

If he is the first of many, the ones already left the building, which is well-known where Dr. Lam Akol, he created his own rebellion and party under National Democratic Movement (NDM), as he has now turned from both Dr. Riek Machar and President Salva Kiir. Certainly, John Marik Makur must have other reasons for leaving the cabinet. There must be some internal inaccuracies and malfunctions from a man of his stature to leave.

So when a man like him feels like his efforts and work doesn’t matter, that should be a worry for the young nation as the loyalist to President Salva Kiir is the ones that staying behind, while the able ones are leaving their offices. This is a sign and should not be misunderstood; it should be interpreted in the ways of maladministration and mismanagement of funds. There is viable evidence and issues within, as the Enough Project report this year even suggest corrupt malpractice within the government. If so than the State Ministries who didn’t comply with the methods in the report would not get needed funds or even clear allocations. That is mere speculation, still we have to suggest that are reasons for why a State Minister resigns and give clear statement of feeling that his efforts didn’t matter. Peace.

South Sudan: The National Courier letter to Radio Tamazuj editor over “Crown the Woman” story (04.02.2017)

National Courior to Radio Tamazuj 4.1.2017

U.S. Department of State: “Dissent Channel: Alternatives to Closing Doors in Order to Secure Our Borders” (30.01.2017)

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Joint Troika Statement Welcoming AU, IGAD and UN Declaration on South Sudan (31.01.2017)

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#MuslimBan: Statement on the travel ban on Somalia (31.01.2017)

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“United we stand, divided we fall”: letter by President Donald Tusk to the 27 EU Head of State or government on the future of the EU before the Malta summit (31.01.2017)

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Yemen: Statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on #MuslimBan (29.01.2017)

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