Somalia: International Partners Urge Resolution of Electoral Impasse (12.01.2021)

Mogadishu – Somalia’s international partners* are deeply concerned about the continuing impasse in implementing the electoral model agreed on 17 September by President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmajo and Federal Member State leaders.

We urge Somalia’s top political stakeholders to demonstrate leadership in the interest of the nation and to quickly resolve outstanding issues of implementation through dialogue and compromise, so that a credible electoral process can proceed as soon as possible.

The partners appreciate recent initiatives. In particular, they welcome the visit of Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble to Galmudug and Puntland; the discussions among a wide range of senior Somali leaders hosted in Garowe by Puntland President Said Deni; and the outreach by Galmudug President Ahmed Abdi Karie ‘Qor Qor,’ who conveyed proposals from Garowe to Federal Government of Somalia leaders and other political figures.

The partners note that the 17 September Agreement was endorsed by the Federal Government, all Federal Member States and both houses of Parliament, and was also welcomed by many Presidential aspirants. Notwithstanding the disappointment of the partners and many Somalis that this model falls far short of ‘one-person, one-vote’ elections, the 17 September Agreement remains the sole acceptable basis for the 2021 elections. There can be no re-opening of the 17 September Agreement or the creation of an alternative or parallel process. Broadly inclusive understandings on its implementation are needed to ensure the credibility of this process. This would be in line with the agreed commitment from the Somali Partnership Forum. Partners would welcome an accelerated effort to resolve, as a matter of urgency, remaining issues and conclude such understandings in the coming days, so that elections could begin later this month.

The partners urge Somalia’s leaders to respect and fully implement the 30 per cent women’s quota in parliament, as they committed to in the 17 September Agreement.

The international partners reiterate that any threat or use of violence is not acceptable. They also emphasize the importance of free and open political space in which candidates are able to express their views peacefully and the media are able to operate without restriction.

The spirit of dialogue and compromise which led to the signing of the 17 September Agreement must be sustained to move the electoral process forward.

  • African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Ethiopia, European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Italy, Ireland, Norway, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and the United Nations.

Somalia: The Council of Presidential Candidates’ Union – Letter to the International Community regarding divisive call for partial elections in Somalia (11.01.2021)

Somalia: Council of Presidential Candidates’ Union letter to FGS – Re: Warning against the dangers of secret deals related to oil exploration & drilling (02.01.2021)

Somalia: Ministry of Information, Culture & Tourism – Press Release (02.02.2021)

Somalia: Council of the Presidential Candidates (CPC) – Press Release (26.12.2020)

Somalia: Council of the Presidential Candidates (CPC) – Press Release (24.12.2020)

Somalia: Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) – Press Release (23.12.2020)

Somalia: Ministry of Information, Culture & Tourism – Press Release (19.12.2020)

Somalia: Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS Net) – Somalia Seasonal Monitor (15.12.2020)

Kenya-Somali Dispute: Farmaajo’s Gamble ahead of the Elections

There been diplomatic spats between Nairobi and Mogadishu before, as the ones in power have either favoured the relations or felt used. The elites in both Republic’s have usually earned coins on the relations. As the cross country trade have been swell and border districts have moved goods. Therefore, the recent escalation is worrying.

Last month it was already getting ugly, when the Kenyan Ambassador went back to Nairobi. After the Somalian government claimed the Kenyan government was interfering in their elections. President Faramaajo have been playing into this narrative and used it ahead of the up-coming elections. Since he gotten friendly with Addis Ababa. He needs a new enemy and currently that Nairobi.

They have already International Court battle over the ownership over certain sea and possible “territory” to drill oil outside their borders. That is a case that is pending and still not settled in the courts. It has been a prolonged dispute. This has however not been the issue for the current spat.

Which is based on the election in Somalia. As the President trying to show his power and his strength ahead of that. That Somalia is cutting its ties. Is now happening because the Kenyan counterparts wanted to show their force as well. They went and had a two day talks with the President of Somaliland Muse Bihi in Nairobi. Also opened up an Consulate for Somaliland in Nairobi and a Kenyan one in Haregeisa. This is in stark contrast to the views of Mogadishu. As the semi-autonomous state and declared independence on the 18th May 1991. Which haven’t been recognized by all states and multi-national organizations. As the Federal Government in Somalia (FGS) will feel these actions made is a betrayal of their sovereign interests. However, that can also be disputed and if they even have a say in Somaliland at all…

This is why this dispute between Mogadishu and Nairobi is happening. Nairobi answered to the attacks and the actions made by Mogadishu. That is why the Kenyan went and made diplomatic efforts with Hargeisa. Just to prove a point. While the Somali elite in Mogadishu and in Nairobi knows it needs Kenyan support. Their army is within their borders. The Kenyan elite is shielding and having a Somali elite in Nairobi. That is why even some Presidential Candidates are campaigning there to get the votes from important figures there. Therefore, this is a futile enterprise.

It is not like the Kenyan will back down now. The FGS in Mogadishu have even ordered for their diplomats to return home within a few days. This means they are clearly shutting down all ordinary means of communication. A neighbour nation who has worked with and is participating in the battle against Al-Shabaab and also harbour the biggest amount of Somali refugees in the Dadaab refugee camp. Therefore, the Kenyan government can make life much worse for Farmaajo, than what he can do to the ones in Nairobi.

This can only be seen as a stunt ahead of the elections. United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) should react to all of this and also IGAD. The AMISOM mission can also loose out on this. As the Kenyan are mandated and are participating in that. So, if this further escalates. The Mogadishu based politicians are playing with fire. While amping up their “sovereign” interests, which is only losing out and weakening themselves. Not like Mogadishu have some friends to call and get things fixed. Even the US is moving their soldiers from Somalia in 2021. They don’t need more weakness in their battle against the Al-Shabaab.

Farmaajo is trying to live up to the hype and show some resilience. In a manner to buy to populist believes ahead of the polls. He needs an enemy and especially an outside one. That is why Kenya is a fitting one. What he maybe didn’t think was that they would invite and entertain Bihi in Nairobi. That must have hurt his pride and therefore, ended in the late night ceasing of ties. This is the reality of it all.

Somaliland is the pawn here. The semi-autonomous state and non-recognized state, which is trying to get vouched for. Right now the importance of Kenya is huge. Especially, that Raila Odinga is speaking of recognition of it. That would spark fury in Mogadishu. This is why the separatists are vocal about it and celebrating the recent events. While Farmaajo should feel shooked. He played high, but didn’t stack his card correctly.

Right now it’s all in the hands of Farmaajo. The “Cheese” have to act now. This will have repercussions and we can wonder how he will play this one out. His the one that gone an election coming up and he got all to loose here. Somaliland and Bihi got what he wanted. Kenya have shown their moves and can easily manoeuvrer from here. It is the leadership of Mogadishu that is loosing out. Peace.