Somalia: Farmaajo rigging the elections as scheduled programming [but will people accept it?]

The first term of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo ended on the 8th February 2021. So now after being the “interim” or “transitional” President for 321 days without a mandate. In Somalia there is even more leaders calling out the rigging of the election in favour of Farmaajo.

Prime Minister Roble is following up his mandate to hold the elections. Which has been postponed and has many false starts. The Electoral Commission have had issues. The various of states has said the elections was sincere. There been hand-picked candidates by Farmaajo and he has swayed the state to field them. In such a way, that the Lower House and the Senate will be filled with his cronies. That seems to be the plan. So, that they can vote for him and get him re-elected.

Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) isn’t only questioned, but the “interim” President is as well. As he uses everyone against each other and the PM is swimming in trouble. It is just like his making things harder and scandals to ensure safe passage. Using insecurity in states to pin his folks and ensure he gets his people elected. That is how it looks like and the elders are used as pawns for his personal gains.

We know that the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) or National Salvation Front (NSF) isn’t able to secure anything and only holding meetings with a weak PM. A PM who soon has to answer for his own corruption scandal. As the state is also blocking a terminal at the international airport for the United Nations Mission in Somalia. Therefore, we know the plans are all ushered in and Villa Somalia has ticked off all pieces in it’s favours.

Farmaajo has used months. I would have expected he had used the famine and the drought to his favour. Alas, he didn’t do that. Instead, he has used time to promote and elevate the “Gorgor” while making his “private” armies greater. That seems planned, as he has gotten closer to his Turkish allies.

We know that he didn’t intend for the elections to go smoothly, as he planned to be a transitional President, which was first voted for in the Lower House and pushed to the Senate. Therefore, we know this man is willing to do anything to stay unelected. The whole last part of 2020 proved that in combination of not caring or valuing the 17th September 2020 agreement, which he now suddenly cares about in the late December 2021. That is really insulting and only shows his intentions are clear to find paths to stay in power…

Farmaajo wants to extend his mandate. Even when his not popular at home or abroad. His trying to dictate and force himself on the Republic. He is doing that to the best of his abilities. While also undermining anyone who tries to make the elections look legit. That’s because he has already candidates lined up and wants them stamped into office. So, that he can continue… because he has no future outside of Presidency.

I wrote already on the 8th April 2021 that he prefers being an unelected leader and in November 2021 I expected him to rig everything in his favour. All of that has happened and is proven to the whole world to see. Farmaajo, the big cheese is doing his own bidding and hope all of his tricks works. However, will be able to pull it off and will the Somali people accept that? Will they look by and see a man steal the throne?

That’s what’s I am wondering about. If they will silently see one man take it all and not even care how he does it. As long as he gets the office of the presidency and gets to stay in Villa Somalia. That is how things are looking and it’s no good. Peace.

Somalia: Humanitarian Partners release 2022 Response Plan for Somalia, UN announces US$17 Million towards immediate drought response efforts (20.12.2021)

The 2022 HRP seeks close to US$1.5 billion to assist 5.5 million of the most vulnerable people in Somalia.

MOGADISHU, Somalia, December 20, 2021 – The United Nations and humanitarian partners in Somalia have released the 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for Somalia, which is facing three consecutive failed rainy seasons for the first time in 30 years.

The 2022 HRP seeks close to US$1.5 billion to assist 5.5 million of the most vulnerable people in Somalia. To meet the immediate needs of drought-affected communities, the UN is releasing US$17 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), bringing CERF funding for Somalia in 2021 to $52 million. This is in addition to just under $60 million provided by donors to the Somalia Humanitarian Fund.

“The lives of the people in Somalia are on the line, and we have no time to lose,” said the UN Humanitarian Chief Martin Griffiths. “To save lives in Somalia and avert another humanitarian catastrophe, we must release funding now so that people can protect themselves from further hunger and impoverishment. I am releasing $17 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund today to enable humanitarians to scale up critical operations. I count on other donors to follow this lead and urge them to generously support the Somalia Humanitarian Fund.”

People in Somalia have endured decades of conflict, recurrent climate shocks, and disease outbreaks, including the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. A prolonged desert locust infestation has impacted also harvests and livelihoods. At least seven in 10 people in Somalia live below the poverty line.

An estimated 7.7 million Somalis will require humanitarian assistance and protection in 2022, marking a 30 per cent rise in needs in just one year.

The HRP will prioritize life-saving assistance for 5 million of the most vulnerable people, including 1 million children under 5, by decreasing the prevalence of hunger, acute malnutrition, public health threats and outbreaks, abuse, violence, and exposure to explosive ordinances by the end of the year. In addition, partners will attempt to sustain the lives of 5.5 million people requiring humanitarian assistance, including 3.9 million non-IDPs, 1.6 million IDPs and people with disability across 74 districts, by ensuring safe, equitable and dignified access to livelihoods and essential services. Finally, the humanitarian response in Somalia aims to uphold commitments to the centrality of protection.

Conflict and insecurity have forced 777,000 people to flee their homes so far this year. Overall, more than 2.9 million people are internally displaced in Somalia – one of the world’s highest figures. Most of these internally displaced people live a precarious existence and need help to survive. Women and girls make up half of the displaced population and face a heightened risk of sexual violence and harassment, abuse and intimate partner violence. “The current drought has devastated livelihoods and pushed families to the brink of disaster,” said Federal Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, Khadija Diriye. “There is a high risk that without immediate humanitarian assistance, children, women and men will start dying of starvation in Somalia.” Somalia – on the front line of climate change – is the most severely drought-affected country in the Horn of Africa. An estimated 3.2 million people in 66 out of the country’s 74 districts are experiencing the cumulative impacts of three consecutive below average rainy seasons, including 169,000 who have abandoned their homes to seek water, food and pasture.

Recent projections indicate that up to 1.4 million Somalis could be displaced by drought in the coming six months. Widespread livestock deaths are already being reported, and food, water and fuel prices are rapidly increasing. Crop production in January is projected to be 50-70 per cent below the last ten-year average.

Humanitarian organizations, local communities and government authorities have ramped up responses to address acute water, food and fodder shortages and other lifesaving needs for people across Somalia. But they urgently need to ramp up these efforts and in order to scale up, they need additional resources and unfettered access to people in need.

Somalia: the compound impact of drought and conflict pushes people to the brink (14.12.2021)

Last month the Federal Government declared a state of emergency, as thousands leave their homes in search of food, water and pasture.

GENEVA, Switzerland, December 14, 2021 – More than 300,000 people have been affected by the worsening drought in Somalia’s Galgaduud region. Last month the Federal Government declared a state of emergency, as thousands leave their homes in search of food, water and pasture. In addition to the worsening drought, Guriel, a town of some 100,000 inhabitants in central Galgaduud, has seen an intensification of conflict. At the end of October, heavy fighting broke out between Somali National Army and Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a group, killing dozens and forcing some 100,000 people to flee to the neighboring villages.

“This drought is more severe than the ones I used to see. The clashes have forced people to run away and become displaced. The drought and lack of rainfall has also caused displacement. These things have all come at once,” said Hashim, a 50 year old resident of Guriel.

Intense shelling damaged several buildings in Guriel, including its main hospital. The Kulmiye Community hospital, the second largest in town, was destroyed in a fire.  Kulmiye hospital was a referral hospital that offered outpatient, inpatient, maternity and immunization services to people from surrounding villages within the range of over 100 km. “This morning, a number of people arrived at the hospital thinking it still exists. They had not heard the news,” said Dr. Ali Omar Tarabi – Chairman, Kulmiye Hospital Board. The pressure on the remaining health facilities has considerably increased.

Hundreds of thousands of people are staying in makeshift settlements on the outskirts of Guriel town. Some of them were displaced by the recent fighting, while others came to the area seeking pasture, as drought became more severe. All the displaced people live in extremely difficult conditions, lacking access to the essential services, like food, water and healthcare. “To respond to these needs, we provided water trucking to displaced people in 17 villages”, said Mohamed Sheikh Ahmed, Head of ICRC office in Galmudug.  “Together with the Somali Red Crescent Society, we deployed a mobile health team that is providing essential health care services to six villages”.

Life is slowly returning to Guriel, but many small businesses remain closed and it will take time and effort to repair the damage, especially while the region is grappling with the consequences of the drought.

ICRC in Somalia – Key Facts

  • A mobile health clinic consisting of 2 nurses, 2 health promoters, a vaccinator and a pharmacy assistant run by the Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS) is providing health care services to four villages and two displacement camps in Galgaduud region.
  • Over 39,000 people received access to water through rehabilitation of 9 boreholes
  • The ICRC has been delivering 90 liters of water per day to some 6,600 for four weeks, as part of its emergency response.
  • 20 water tanks have been delivered to 17 affected villages in Guriel.
  • Over 70,000 people affected by the drought received cash grants in 17 villages in Galmudug region.

Opinion: Okello Oryem is mocking the wrong partners with MONUSCO

In an Interview with NTV this morning, the minister for foreign affairs in charge of international relations Okello Oryem said Uganda “does not need the help of the UN” which he says they consider as a “useless group” that has allegedly preserved terrorism in Congolese soil. “We have no good words for them, they have been there for long but what have they done? As far as we are concerned, we do not want their military assistance, even if they offer us a cup of tea, we do not need it,” said Mr Oryem” (Ritah Kemigisa – ‘Uganda doesn’t need UN’s help for DRC mission- Oryem’ 02.12.2021, KFM.co.ug).

The hubris and the arrogance is clear as the Minister Henry Okello Oryem who is is now downplaying the role of United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo (MONUSCO), which is starting their gradual exit strategy from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). MONUSCO is based in the provinces of Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu, which the UN based mission is to stop the militias with disarmament and demobilization of them. In such a way, that the MONUSCO is there to be the civilians’ protection.

It is really striking that the Ugandan Minister is mocking and not wanting to work with MONUSCO now. This mission was first established in 1999 as MONUC and got a new mandate in 2010. While in 2020 the mandate changed and they are starting already to back-out. Therefore, the UN Mission is dwindling down. As well, as there are new militias and foreign interference in the region of which the Ugandan army entered yet again.

MONUSCO is partly created by the interference of Ugandan troops within the DRC. Not that the Ugandan armies was alone in these wars or always been welcomed to enter the DRC. The UPDF and Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) have both entered it. As well, as both nations have been involved in supporting militias, rebels and armed groups within the DRC. That is well-known and they re-appear at certain stages. Just like the UPDF have been inside the DRC before on specialized operations towards certain targets.

Okello Oryem is just showing how the Ugandans elites and the ones within the regime is thinking about it. It is their rights to attack and be part of military operations within the DRC. Since, they don’t want anything with the UN or MONUSCO. I wonder, if Okello Oryem would accept similar feelings in Somalia between the Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which the latter UPDF is a pat of. I wonder, if Okello Oryem and all of the Ugandan hierarchy would like to be painted in similar fashion. Because, there is two sides to any coin and this is a foolish take.

Yes, MONUSCO isn’t perfect and neither is it’s mission. There has been continued insurgency and lack of territorial integrity, which the Ugandan and Rwandan counter-parts has supported and participated with. That is well-known and is a reason for the illegal export of resources from the provinces as well. Therefore, Okello Oryem should be a bit more humble, but I know that’s too much to ask for in 2021.

Okello Oryem could suddenly wake up and bite the dust. Since, his just showing a lot of flair. Nevertheless, we know the trouble will return and be a real issue. There isn’t only the ADF in Ituri, North and South Kivu provinces. There is several of other militias and guerrillas in the provinces and they are causing massive concern and is a silent war that never ends. They are invested in, given arms and training. This is deliberate and the joint operation will not stop this… sadly…

MONUSCO will not end this and they being gone will not stop the existence either. As long as the head of state and foreign interference for profits continues. The insecurity and usage of militias will continue.

It is like we are supposed to be naive and forget how this all started. The UPDF and RDF is responsible for a lot of the pain. The two nations have used the provinces and the DRC as a treasury chest for them. While using the same means to re-enter again and for some reason the Kinshasa government allows that to happen. This is even happening, as the State of Emergency in this regions are occurring. That is really tragic…

Okello Oryem should think about what he says. Since this could be easily said about the UPDF within the AMISOM. Which the SNA and Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) only creates more problems within Somalia. Alas, he as a diplomat should be more careful, but I don’t expect it to ever happen. Peace.

Opinion: Farmaajo trying to rig it all in his favour

The Federal Government of Somalia and Villa Somalia own term ended on February 8th 2021. The President and his allies has postponed the elections several of times. The allies of the President has thwarted talks and ripped agreements apart. The President even tried to use the majority of the Lower House to get him unelected for years with a fake mandate. However, that stopped… but his still in office scheming like no tomorrow.

Former President and interim President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed aka Farmaajo who has used months upon months. Soon a year long process to get an election going. Always ensuring his people and delegates their wishes. In such a fashion that critics and others from various of states are getting dropped from elections. Just so he can have total control of the Parliament, both houses and get elected into Presidency for his second term.

Farmaajo have no real game-plan, other than securing re-election. He either got to have by the hook or the by crook. This man is willing to use the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) to his own favours. Just like he has used the ‘Gorgor’ to threaten and get his will earlier in this year too.

The interim President isn’t sharing any goodwill and is just proving how sinister he is. As his using insecurity and national disasters to his own personal gain. He is using droughts, the pandemic and everything included as ways of getting ahead. It is like he doesn’t care about anything else, but being in the high office.

Farmaajo is a man who speaks poetically about being a patriot, but has no issues trading away resources and industries for personal gains. This being getting recruits, training and splendid mercenaries, which can be used for private operations. While the people who pays for these services gets favourable business-deals and trading licenses in the Republic. That’s why he cannot let go and let other people rule either.

This is why Farmaajo cannot risk having universal suffrage, because that would be a risky gamble for him. Why you might say? Well, it wouldn’t be delegates or picked people to elect representatives in the states. No, it would be secret ballots and counting, which Farmaajo wouldn’t trust with his life. It is easier to bribe a few delegates and incite fear into a little crowd. Compared to doing the same to the whole population and getting them in drones to vote for you.

The interim President has to use this system and gets his people behind the wheel. That is clear message and he does it in the open. While blocking and stopping the ones who happens to be his critics. This is so obvious… and clear, deliberate rigging that it’s not tricky to see. As he has all the incentives and the motivation to do this. Since, if he gets his people in the Lower House and Senate. He can easily get re-elected and call it another “Monday”.

Certainly, the interim President thinks the people and the onlookers are stupid. Because, if he was smartly rigging. He would have allowed and made clear for opposition to stand as candidates. Especially, the ones that was elected in the previous term. Nevertheless, the interim President isn’t that bright and has to screw it all up. When people can see it and they don’t even have to think about it.

Therefore, this isn’t only something the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) are seeing, but everyone else as well. It is handled so badly and with such disgrace. That only pro-Farmaajo and Villa Somalia supporters accepts the electoral process. It is filled with problematic actions and Prime Minister Roble cannot runaway from that. His fiddling in the middle of it and he knows that perfectly well. Farmaajo is tricking him too and he is challenged to fulfil the mandate he has.

The Interim President is playing a dangerous game. However, restarting the whole process and re-issuing new elections. Only gives the unelected President more time in office. Which is ironically what the opposition doesn’t want, but is the only way out this. At this point of time, the lessons of past has to be addressed, if not we are repeating the sins of the past. That is just the tragedy here and Farmaajo wants to eat the spoils. This is very clear and he thinks he can trick everyone. As his confidence is above the normal and his hubris is touching the sky. Peace.

Somalia: Punland Security Force – Press Statement (25.11.2021)

IGAD and FAO Call for Urgent Actions to Mitigate the Impacts of Drought Across the Horn of Africa (18.11.2021)

A joint statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary, Dr Workneh Gebeyehu and the FAO Subregional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, Dr Chimimba David Phiri.

NAIROBI, Kenya, November 18, 2021 – Vulnerable communities in the IGAD region continue to experience a complex mix of re-enforcing shocks and stresses that are eroding their resilience to food and nutrition insecurity. As of October 2021, 26 million people were already facing high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+), according to the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), which is co-chaired by the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Due to the threat of worsening drought conditions, food insecurity will likely rise during the first half of 2022 across the Horn of Africa. Urgent action is therefore required now to safeguard livelihoods, save lives, and prevent possible starvation in some areas.

Drought conditions are already affecting the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and Belg-receiving areas of southern and south-eastern Ethiopia as consecutive poor rainfall seasons have driven below-average crop production, rising cereal prices, poor rangeland conditions, reduced livestock production, and drought-related  animal deaths in many areas.

Moreover, as forecast by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the start of the current October-December 2021 rainy season has been significantly delayed, with little to no rainfall observed to date in many areas, raising the probability of another poor season. Should this occur, agricultural and pastoral conditions will further deteriorate, causing households already struggling with the effects of multiple, concurrent hazards (climate variability, conflict, COVID-19, and desert locusts) to employ negative coping strategies and reduce their food consumption. This is a major source of concern as food insecurity in the region has historically increased sharply following consecutive poor rainfall seasons.

IGAD Member States continue to work in collaboration with development partners to anticipate and respond to various food security threats and build the resilience of vulnerable communities to recurrent threats and crises. During the desert locust upsurge, for example, the unparalleled support of resource partners and multi-agency coordination averted USD 1.3 billion worth of cereal losses, meeting the cereal requirements of 29.1 million people. Desert locust livelihood recovery support continues for more than 200 000 households.

IGAD and FAO share a long-standing history of successful partnership and collaboration in building the region’s resilience in several areas, including but not limited to: livelihood support to strengthen resilience against droughts; food security information and analysis; early warning and disaster risk management; implementation of cross border actions in close collaboration with the respective communities, local and national authorities; conflict prevention; natural resource management; market access and trade; and capacity building; institutional strengthening and coordination through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI).

Such resilience-building efforts have significantly improved the ability of households to withstand the impacts of shocks. However, the increased frequency of climatic hazards, combined with the effects of other stressors, is threatening these hard-won gains. It is, therefore, crucial to act now to protect these resilience gains and prevent more people from sliding into food insecurity and malnutrition.

To this end, we must support farmers and herders who are experiencing the impacts of poor harvests, depleted food and animal feedstock, and rising food and water prices. More specifically, IGAD and FAO call for a scale-up of contributions to existing and future Humanitarian Response Plans (HRPs) as the response remains grossly underfunded in the relevant countries. Through rapid, collaborative action by all actors, we can safeguard the lives and livelihoods of communities currently bearing the worsening effects of the drought, while at the same time, protecting households’ longer-term resilience.

Opinion: Obasanjo has an unforgiving mission in Ethiopia

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, March 21, 2016 – Some of Africa’s leaders are responsible for instability on the continent because they have failed to manage diversity in their societies, the former Nigerian President, General Olusegun Obasanjo, has said” (TANA Forum – ‘Press Statement: “Some African leaders to blame for conflicts” – Obasanjo’ 21.03.2016).

Today Olusegun Obasanjo as the Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union for the Horn of Africa. One of his key objectives and mandate is to mediate in the Ethiopian conflict. Alas, he has a mountain to climb and it’s an unforgiving job. This is a position and a office, which isn’t for the kind-hearted. Since, the parties here are in the trenches and in a brutal war. They are not in this for a small token or to get global recognition.

Obasanjo is now meddling and intervening within a battle, which has become broader and wider than what the Tripartite Alliance anticipated. The alliance of FDRE, SOE and Amhara allies didn’t anticipate the formation of a broad alliance of nationalities to combat the Tripartite Alliance. Therefore, at this point, the war isn’t only Addis Ababa-Asmara versus Mekelle. No, it is much more wider and with the objective of rectifying the leadership structure of the nation.

This is why the African Union (AU) is late here and the talks is only stalling things. The mediator can drop a statement saying today: “I am optimistic that common ground towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict can be secured. The interlocutors I have engaged on all sides have stated their wish for peace, security, and stability in Ethiopia. The main point of difference between the actors is in the means by which they seek to achieve this essential objective. War represents a failure of politics. Thus dialogue remains the only reliable and sustainable avenue to peace. There is no military solution to the conflict and battlefield victory cannot guarantee political stability in Ethiopia. I, therefore, appeal to the leadership of all sides to halt their military offensives. This will allow an opportunity for dialogue to continue to progress. Such talks cannot deliver in an environment of escalated military hostilities” (African Union – ‘Statement on the Prospects for Peace in Ethiopia by H.E. Olusegun Obasanjo High representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for the Horn of Africa’ 14.11.2021).

It is like Obasanjo haven’t learned from his own experience. Just 5 years ago as a Tana Forum speaker or delegate. He spoke of the reason why we are seeing a war within Ethiopia today. The diversity and marginalization of certain groups is the reason for the conflict in Ethiopia. That’s because one man wanted to consolidate all power and use old grievances to settle it. He wanted to overcome the TPLF and by doing so hurt the Tigrayan ethnic group. This he got done by getting allies who has suffered, because of the leadership in Mekelle.

Deep down, I think Obasanjo know the difference and the difficulties here. The parties are not willing to really talk. These are just cordial meetings to buy time. We know the United Front against Prosperity Party is running towards Addis Ababa. This is just common knowledge as they are aiming to use arms to change the leadership. They are not trusting or having faith in negotiations. That’s why the former President is to hopeful in this manner.

I don’t see Abiy or Afewerki talking to Debretsion. I wish I could, but these have already vilified and gone total genocide on the enemy. They are arresting people for being associated or allegedly associated with either Tigray Defence Force (TDF) or Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Therefore, seeing them talking or having a meeting seems unlikely. If the TPLF/OLF went to talk. I would be worried of arrests and authorities surrounding the venue. This is why the hope is very dishonest at this moment of time.

The talks Obasanjo was maybe positive and had a good vibe. However, those vibes will not change the matters on the ground. As the FDRE is going into a “survival campaign” mode and the TDF-OLA is slowly advancing towards their target. This is not a time or a moment of thinking these will give way. No party will earn on it and that would only salvage the reign of Abiy. A ruler, which is a warlord and someone who many wants gone. Therefore, if Obasanjo wants to save his term or if he wants peace. That is two difference objectives….

I don’t see the hope or the possibilities of quick or brief ceasing of military operations. That means an unilateral ceasefire, which means all parties would silence their guns. The Tripartite Alliance never did that and only played the facade of that. While they we’re still annexing Western Tigray and besieging the rest of Tigray region. Therefore, Obasanjo is too positive or naive. I doubt any of the parties will give way. These parties will fight to the death or until they have to go to exile. Peace.

Somalia: AMISOM – Court Martial finds AMISOM soldiers guilty of killing civilians in Goloweyn (13.11.2021)

Somalia: Abdulkadir Sharraay – Press Release – Somalia’s Electoral Process has lost all Credibility! (06.11.2021)