Drought in the Horn of Africa: New Analyses Flag Mounting Risks, Need to Support Rural Families (11.02.2022)

A drought picture from a previous drought in Somalia (sometime in 2016)

FAO senior officials visit affected areas in the rush to save lives and livelihoods.

NAIROBI, Kenya, February 11, 2022 – An extended, multi-season drought is driving acute food insecurity in the Horn of Africa, with 12 to 14 million people now at risk as crops continue to wither and animals weaken, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and partners warned today.

Resource-based conflicts are escalating as competition for water and pasturelands increases, and malnutrition rates are rising in affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, highlighting the need to sustain the rural livelihoods that underpin peace and food security across the Horn.

At a briefing to international donors in Nairobi, FAO and its partners reported that the food security outlook in the region will be highly dependent on the performance of the upcoming rainy season, with forecasts currently uncertain.

In a worst-case scenario in which the rains completely fail and agricultural-dependent communities do not receive adequate support, the number of highly food insecure people could climb to 15-20 million – with some worst-affected households facing “catastrophic” hunger conditions.

“Drought cycles are intensifying and occurring with greater frequency. Immediate humanitarian action to support farmers and herders is needed now,” said Bechdol, after visiting Kenyan communities where goats and cows are dying from lack of water and pasture. “The international community has a narrow window to prevent a major humanitarian catastrophe here,” she said.

“Alarm bells have already been rung – scaled-up action is needed now,” said Phiri. “FAO carried out anticipatory actions during the latter half of 2021 in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia to mitigate the impacts of drought on over one million rural people and so far a crisis has been mitigated. But much more is needed as the situation deteriorates and as crisis looms,” he said.

A plan to help rural families cope 

Under FAO’s new Horn of Africa Drought Response Plan, $130 million is urgently needed to provide time-critical assistance to highly vulnerable communities in drought-hit regions of the three countries. The plan supports the production of up to 90 million litres of milk and up to 40 000 tonnes of staple food crops in the first part of 2022, putting over one million highly-food insecure people on a safe footing.

For pastoralist families, FAO aims to deliver animal feed and nutritional supplements, provide mobile veterinary health clinics, transport 10 000 litre collapsible water reservoirs to remote areas, and upgrade existing wells to run on solar power.

For farming families, FAO aims to distribute drought-tolerant early-maturing varieties of sorghum, maize, cowpea and other beans and vegetables.

FAO is also carrying out cash transfers and cash-for-work programmes to ensure the most vulnerable can access food.

Additional new analysis published on Thursday from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) for Somalia, hosted by FAO, shows that in Somalia alone, the number of acutely food insecure people (IPC Phase 3 and 4) is expected to increase from 3.5 to 4.1 million between January and March 2022, if humanitarian assistance is not received on time.

FAO’s Deputy Director-General, Beth Bechdol; Subregional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, David Phiri; and Director of Emergencies and Resilience, Rein Paulsen have just completed a visit to Kenya to raise awareness on the drought and see FAO’s vital response in action, including in Isiolo and Marsabit counties in the north.

Somalia: Federal Government of Somalia and African Union – Joint Statement (09.02.2022)

Somalia: Jubbaland State of Somalia – Press Release – Notice, Warning and Declaration (06.02.2022)

Somaliland: Somaliland Non-State Actors Forum (SONSAF) – Press Release (30.01.2022)

Somaliland: Somaliland Non-State Actors Forum (SONSAF) – Press-Release (17.01.2022)

Somalia: Puntland Government of Somalia – Press Statement (14.01.2022)

Somalia: Ministry of Internal Security – Press Statement (01.01.2021)

Somalia: Council of Presidential Candidates (C.P.C) – Statement (28.12.2021)

Mogadishu Tensions: It is now Roble Vs. Farmaajo

“We will storm the presidential palace and capture him alive” – Pro-Opposition Forces (Keyd Media, 27.12.2021)

Just as things where moving slowly in concerns to the postponed elections in Somalia. The “interim” and “transitional” President Farmaajo have today suspended Prime Minister Roble. They have squabbled earlier in the year, but today Farmaajo upped up the ante. While it is reported that the “interim” President ordered security forces to the house of Roble and wanted to take him away from his office.

Therefore, the tensions has gotten worse. Earlier in the day, there was reports of troop movement in Mogadishu. There is now reports that the pro-opposition forces of Mogadishu will encircle and take Farmaajo now. They want to prevent the “interim” President from holding a press conference today.

As Prime Minister Roble came out with his concern and there been change in leadership within the cabinet. The PM has appointed Abdukadir Mohamed Nur as the new Defence Minister. There is reports of beefed up security at the Presidential Palace and such. That is clear and evident, as the tensions are now running high.

Some reports are saying that the Villa Somalia is sealed off now. The pro-opposition forces are reported to block roads leading to Villa Somalia and the Presidential Palace. However, it is hard to know. As there haven’t been new reports the last few hours.

Nevertheless, this is spiralling out quick and we can wonder where this will go. The Somali National Security Forces (SNSF) have threatened to arrest the “interim” President at a Press Conference today. Therefore, we know that the bloodless coup d’etat that Farmaajo tried himself to pull off earlier today has backfired.

The latest news are that the pro-opposition forces has taken over the Dabka junction and the nearby neighbourhoods. This is a clear indication of where things are going. These moves aren’t making things better, but becoming a stalemate of which we don’t know. As both parties are armed and assessing their strengths. We can wonder when the “interim” President uses “Gorgor” to attack his enemies, as they have been donated to keep him in power. As the specialized unit of 5000 soldiers who listens to Farmaajo’s command. That should be worrying and we can possibly see new skirmished in Mogadishu. Just like we saw in April 2021.

This here is worrying and tragic, as the men in office and in power uses military means to their own benefit. To settle their private grievances and all for personal gains. What we seeing now isn’t a sign of strength, but also what sort of state Farmaajo is leaving behind. After all these years in power … Farmaajo should have left things more stable and secure. However, it is more fragile and even more insecure. That’s the legacy he leaves behind, as his willing to risk anything to be “re-elected” again.

That’s why we are seeing in December 2021, the same we saw in April 2021. This is tragic, but also the state of affairs. When political changes are occurring, the weapons have to be used and the use of military means is on the table. Instead of having talks and proper dialogue. The “interim” President rather use guns and ammunition. Therefore, not strange that the pro-opposition are answering with same means. However, that also makes the situation more dire and causes concern for what is to come.

Farmaajo is clearly playing a dangerous game and you can wonder how many times he can pull this one off. Before he used Kheire to do it for him. Now he thought he could get rid of a second PM. That’s the sort of fella he is and the world can see it. Peace.

Somalia: Was this Farmaajo’s new coup attempt in Mogadishu? [with the suspension of Roble]

Today’s report that “interim” or “transitional” President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo have sacked or “suspended” his Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble who he appointed only this last year’s September 2020. This he has done on his 322 day without a mandate and not being the elected President since 8th March 2020. That says a lot from a man who has worked against the 17th September 2020 agreement on the elections.

The man that the “interim” President appointed to run the elections and secure it to be free and fair. Has now been suspended and fired, because of corruption allegations and possible land-grabbing. As Villa Somalia is trying whatever ways possible to rig the elections and secure a second term. Since the bid of prolonging his presidency without an election was thwarted after a week during last year.

We know that Farmaajo also ordered soldiers and security officers to the offices of the Prime Minister today. With the sole intention of overthrowing the current government. Just in favour of his will and his whims. That is the clear intentions of what has transpired today.

It is a reason why he has accepted to rule and be in office without an election for this long. That he has stayed and been able to get away with it for 322 days. Farmaajo hopes that he can do this yet again and not have any issues.

Farmaajo have ordered the “Gorgor” and Somali National Army when he is in need. Because of the actions taken today. The PM has counter-ordered what the “interim” President did and said the security organizations should take orders from him. While Farmaajo is standing down as another candidate in the up-coming presidential race, which has been postponed and not been able to hold the polls. Therefore, Roble has taken power and also issued a statement where he says the cabinet is still active and follows procedures under his lead.

We have clearly seen how far Farmaajo is willing to go and never stopping in his tracks. Now we have to see how this moves, as there is talks of escalations of the opposition forces in Mogadishu. Which are now retaliating and planning to block-off the roads to Farmaajo’s house. If that is happening, as well as more army deployment around Villa Somalia. The tensions will be rising and that’s because what Farmaajo decided to do. Peace.