Ethiopia: Rising inflation [is it a result of the Law Enforcement Operation?]

In Ethiopia there been open warfare since November 2020. This is now seeing effects far away from the Tigray region. The truth is that warfare and conflicts cost. You pay for mercenaries, soldiers, food, shelter and heavy weaponry. All of that costs and implicates the economy. The spending have to go from somewhere and has to settled. This means certain other parts of the economy looses its value or gets less of investments. In which things gets scarce or get hit by the new demand. Since the Tripartite Alliance needs more supplies for their warfare.

Addis Fortune Reported on the 5th April 2021 this:

There appears little solace for consumers in Ethiopia, with the year-on-year headline inflation reaching at 20.6pc in March this year, a little over the nearly 20pc annual average last year. The largest increase in prices was seen in food items such as edible oil, fruit and vegetables and spice, according to a statement by the Ethiopian Statistics Agency. The consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March shows a 22pc jump compared to the same period last month. Non-food items such as fuel and energy, alcohol, tobacco and chat as well as transport, medical expense and construction materials have seen an increase in prices of 18.9pc” (Addis Fortune – ‘Headline Inflation Reaches 20.6pc on Year’, 05.04.2021).

This is the government excuse for the rising inflation:

ADDIS ABABA–The continuous demand-supply imbalance and ill-investment strategy of the former administration have resulted in the structural and worsening current inflation, so disclosed Planning and Development Commission. The Commission’s Deputy Commissioner with the rank of State Minister Nemera Gebeyehu (Ph.D) told The Ethiopan Press Agencey (EPA) that even though many people believe inflation is worsened after the reform, the reform measures taken by the government do minimize the inflation, but a lot remains to be done since it is structural driven from the ill-investment strategy of the former administration” (Dargie Kahsay – ‘Ethiopia: Previous Maladministration Takes Blame for Current Inflation – Commission’, 03.04.2021, The Ethiopian Herald).

We are clearly seeing here the effects of the mismanagement or priorities of the state. A steady war is costly and the price of that is on the citizens. That is why the prices are going up and the state will lack currency. The state will do whatever it can to continue supply and generate enough funds. Which in the end means more inflation and devalued currency, which will also means the citizens will get less for their money and imported goods will be more expensive. It is a vicious circle and a negative spiral. That this government is doing by its efforts as a Tripartite Alliance member and fighting on its own soil.

The Prosperity Party is also blaming the old EPRDF, which it was in coalition with and consolidated power from. The PP is practically not taking responsibility for the actions in office and only pushes it on the previous government. That is really rich. Just like all warfare is the TPLF to blame in Tigray. This is following a pattern and the excuses is getting old.

The PP should seriously be worried about the rate the inflation is going and what shocks this will have for the citizens. There is already videos reminiscent of the fuel crisis in 2015. This being leaked clips and statements of troubles getting fuel in Addis Ababa all week. That is a sign of what to come and costs of the war.

The Addis Ababa administration should be worried about this. The costs of war is coming forward now. Not only the loss of prestige with the Prime Minster and the image as a whole. The PP and the PM isn’t looking like reformers anymore, but as a warlords. They are not only brining destruction to the Region of Tigray, but also destroying the economy as a result. This will be carried for long and effects of the war will take a toll. We can just wonder about how many will pay the additional costs and struggle because of it. That is how these things goes. The elites and the one in-charge will not feel it, but the average citizen has to live with the new standard. They are paying the price for the inflation and have to collect whatever they can out of their currency. Peace.

Ethiopia: Press Release from the Tigrayan Nationalist Parties Forum on the Deteriorating Humanitarian crisis in Tigray (09.04.2021)

Ethiopia: Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) – Press Release (08.04.2021)

Ethiopia: Will Abiy use this State of Emergency to crack-down on others?

I tend to support ‘State of Emergency’ measures put forward by a state or a government, when it will be done to battle insurgency or against epidemic. I understand them both. The Prosperity Party and Prime Minister Ali Ahmed Abiy is issuing his first one. It is not new with “State of Emergency” in Ethiopia. Therefore, I am sceptical and hesitant.

Even if this State of Emergency is issued for 5 months. The plan is to be delegated and controlled by the Council of Ministers, instead of the Command Post. Because of the history of Command Post. Just like people doesn’t trust the Liyu Police in the Ogaden Region. It is reasons for that, the violence, the crack-down and misuse of power towards the citizens. The same is the worry of the soldiers stationed in Amhara beating on supports of FANO. Just like the soldiers going against the querro in Oromia and so fourth. This sort of State of Emergency usually tends to be like that.

Even if this State of Emergency is placed because of the COVID-19 or Coronavirus. I have a feeling it will be used to get people more submissive to the Prosperity Party and the leadership of Addis Ababa. Expect Gondar, Jigjiba, Dire Dawa and Bahir Dar to be hit in these times. I wouldn’t be shocked to see leaked viral clips of assaulting soldiers to innocent civilians. Even reports of arrests and burning houses. Because, that is how these things to spiral out.

I’m awaiting blocked phone-lines, expect social media black-out and internet blockage, which the state has used rampantly in the Oromia region. Therefore, now that they have a legal basis. Have orders from the Central Government, the PP can act like the EPRDF did in the past and can shield information will suppressing the voices of the various regions. While using the COVID-19 as a excuse to do it. It is the perfect storm. The way of preparing the violence before the postponed elections and ensure supremacy. Without having to battle the alliances elsewhere.

The social distancing, the washing hands and the closure of state has happen elsewhere. The world is under a near global lockdown and states has issued similar means. However, the PP and its predecessor EPRDF has misused this in the past and that is not in ancient times. But it was done in the last decade and lots of systemic violence to stop the eruption of protest against the regime. Therefore, with the knowledge of that. I am worried. That is done to dismantle the voices against the government and not stop the spread of the virus itself.

The pictures of soldiers walking in the streets of Amhara, the voices of concern from Ogaden and the arrests of OLF leaders in Oromia. Shows the reasons for fear and worry. If your not, your ignorant to the way the leadership in Addis Ababa has controlled the Republic.

I hope I am wrong, because this COVID-19 is no joke. It is dangerous and contagious. It spreads so quickly and kills. While we have no direct cure or have vaccine for it. Therefore, there is a need to drastic measures to await the possible cure. However, the state who uses lockdown measures has to do it transparently and do it in the open. So the public can trust and live with it in hope, that the government act for their best interests.

Well, in this regard, I am worrying. I hope I am wrong. Because, that would have been nice. However, history teaches us things and the way people operate. Leadership can do reforms, but the reoccurent theme is that only goes skin-deep and is in rhetoric. Not in actual change of protocol nor actions. This is why I fear things. The TPLF is maybe out of the PP. However, the PP is still more of the same and they might strike with vengeance. Now that they have the opportunity. Peace.

Ethiopia: Did PM Abiy praise the Derg and their revolutionary “Call of the Motherland”?

With little training, Ethiopians rallied to the ‘mother’s call’ – the mother country cry for protection against the enemy. The Derg government offered a call for a short time and made it by bringing back respect of the country. It is in our history to pay for our country’s sacrifice and sacrifice ourselves for our country. Soon enough the invaders felt the wrath and the blade of Ethiopian heroes who were prepared to go to any length and sacrifice to defend their motherland. Within a short period, not only was the Somalia invader defeated but the territorial integrity, sovereignty and respect of the nation was restored in full. Rubbed the wrong way, the lion roars, the true Ethiopian rises to glory” (Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali, 05.03.2020).

I don’t have the answers here. This is loosely translated from his Facebook post. However, the way it mentions thing it started me to question things and look into it. He celebrated the Karamara victory, the one where Ethiopia successfully where able to annex the Ogaden or the Somali region of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Therefore, it is hot topic to begin with, as the Ethiopian are seen as invaders and as colonizers of the region to begin with.

It is reason why its called the Somali region or Ogaden. Because, it’s belonging to the Federal Republic of Somalia. Now, its been like this ever since, ever since the loss of the war. Still, there are Ethiopian forces fighting for Mogadishu government at the mercy of Addis Ababa. This is known, so for the Prime Minister to celebrate this. Really, shows there are some aims at supremacy for the Prosperity Party and the Prime Minister.

He recalls old glories and even uses wordings, that former Dictator Megistu used to rally up the forces for the “Red Terror”. Using wordings that resembles the battle-cry of the DERG. For me that is weird. Not patriotic, but a sign that the man isn’t that peaceful after all.

Small fragments of the “Call of the Motherland”:

Mengistu took a war-like stance against these threats in the aftermath of the coup on February 3, 1977. A communique issued in the name of the Derg on the following day pointed out that Ethiopian progressives (members of Mengistu’s coalition) had been unable to take action against the counter-revolutionaries because of the dominance of the reactionaries and their supporters in the Derg? it then stated that the revolution’s strategy would, from that day, be transformed from the defensive into the offensive. In his address to a rally held on the same day, Mengistu condemned Teferi and his faction, EPRP, EDU, the Eritrean Liberation Forces, the conservative states of the region and imperialism as enemies of the Ethiopian revolution. In his address at another rally on April 12, Mengistu again condemned the same forces and asked the Ethiopian people to rally around the banner of ‘Call of the Motherland’ and fight the enemies of the revolution(ANDARGACHEW TIRUNEH – The Ethiopian Revolution (1974 to 1984), P: 285-286, 1990).

Government dailies had a section of their front-page devoted to the “Call of the Revolutionary Motherland” from the beginning of May 1977. From the outset, the media campaign combined calls for the defense of territorial integrity with encouragements to denounce internal opponents. See e.g. Ethiopian Herald, 3 May 1977, ‘Call of Motherland: to defend the frontiers, to protect the revolution and to increase production’” (Jacob Wiebel – ‘Revolutionary Terror Campaigns in Addis Ababa, 1976-1978’, 2014).

French MilAtt was informed March 5 by Soviet MilAtt that Jijiga had been recaptured that morning. Soviet also confirmed that Kara Mara Pass had fallen to Ethiopians. French MilAtt believed that major thrust toward Jijiga was from NNW and was combined Ethiopian-Cuban operation. French MilAtt further stated that Ethiopians took heavy casualties” (Office of the Historian – ‘69. Telegram From the Embassy in Ethiopia to the Department of State’ Addis Ababa, March 6, 1978, 1407Z 1054. Subj: Ethiopian Forces Recapture Strategic Ogaden Town of Jijiga. Ref: Addis Ababa 1025).

So, for someone calling himself a reformist and a man whose mission is to make the Republic better. He surely brings back memory of a regime and a type of government he shouldn’t associate himself with. Especially, this is a insult to the Somali and Somalia. They have answered this. Even Oromo leader Mohammad Jawar has addressed it. Therefore, the backlash has occurred.

Still, there is need to ask if this is a gaffe or an intended approach by the Prime Minister. As he has created his “one-party” ahead of elections and with statements like these. He will gain supporters and show flex. However, his also reminding people of a bloody past. A past where the state used terror against dissidents and used all means to stay in power. Therefore, the Prime Minister should consider that.

That its that easy to think in this direction, by the words and wording in his statement. Should boggle us in 2020. As he should not rewrite and praise the Derg, but instead condemn it and their ill-actions. The ramifications plenty of people are still living with today. The EPRDF has used techniques the Derg did too.

As his supposed to reform, he should know better. However, seemingly he wants this messages out. I just question it. As it sparks some memories and his wording isn’t making it better. Especially, when his trying to be a peacemaker in the region. Instead, this way his just another imperialist with in sheep’s cloth. A hidden wolf awaiting his time eat. Peace.

Final communique of the Council of Oromo Traditional Leaders (Abbaa Gadaa) and Somliland Traditional Leaders (19.12.2018)

Joint Declaration between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (21.10.2018)

Ethiopia: Should we worry about the Growing Violence during the short tenure of PM Abiy Ahmed?

The Ethiopian government continues their crackdown on demonstrations and protesters, even if there are positive steps towards better governance within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF). Still, the government have not stopped using the army and there has still be lots of fatalities since the appointment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali in April 2018.

Though Abiy’s tenure has been heralded as a pacifying influence, the number of violent events and protests have actually increased by over 8% in the 6 months since he has taken office, relative to the 6 months prior (from 388 to 420 events). This has corresponded to an increase of over 48% in the number of reported fatalities from 644 fatalities in the 6 months before Abiy took office to 954 fatalities from April to October” (ACLED – ‘CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN PROTESTS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE PM ABIY’S ETHIOPIA’ 13.10.2018).

This is from someone who follows conflicts and violence has not stopped, but surged a bit. The positive vibes and the diplomatic steps within the Horn of Africa haven’t helped internally. As the sins of the past and the seemingly revenge of the Oromo’s has happen too.

This was also proven further in the report from ACLED: “There has been a marked increase in intercommunal violence since April 2018, concentrated largely in Oromia, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ (SNNP) Region, and Amhara. Between April and October 2018, there were 43 violent interactions between communal militias (an increase of over 168%); over that time period, such intercommunal violence accounted for 10% of the overall number of violent events. Violent events between communal militias and civilians have also been on the rise since Abiy took office, rising from 1% of events in the six month period prior to Abiy’s swearing in to 5%.The prevalence of this violence suggests that local flashpoints over access to resources and mobilization around ethnic lines is on the rise since Abiy took office. Mobilization along ethnic lines during this period of political change may be a result of the Ethiopian government’s system of ethno-federal regionalism; emphasizing ethnic identity may be a way for ethnic groups and ethno-regional politicians to signal their strength and jockey for influence” (ACLED – ‘CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN PROTESTS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE PM ABIY’S ETHIOPIA’ 13.10.2018).

We should really worry with the risign communal militias that has sky-rocketed, this has happen in the Ogaden Region or Somali Region. The Oromo and Queero and Liyu Police has really taken it in their own hands and held the ethnic Somali people down. This is worrying, as the Djibouti government even became worried about the escalated violence in the region, but there have been nothing from Villa Somalia on the matter. Maybe, because the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) is part of AMSIOM.

I am worried about this and the consequences, as the Oromo are doing what the Tigray did to them. But instead of retaliating, they are acting supreme elsewhere. Amhara is also played around with, as the former terrorist organizations are now allowed to return from Eritrea, as the peace between the neighbors are making it more possible to work together. This being Ginabot 7 and Oromo Liberation Front. These will also add possible local conflicts and surge mobilization, which is now combined with the return of other heroes. Could either create a better regime or more hostility, which have already seen.

These numbers are really worrying. This is not positive news, also the grand amount of fatal deaths during protest isn’t winding down, but become worse.

PM Abiy has work to do and clearly change even more within the ethical borderlines, but also the need for dialogue. This dialogue has to happen internally, PM Abiy have been busy with the neighbors, but not within region since he quit his national tour early in his tenure. 

Should we worry if this persist or change, as the numbers of mobilization and fatalities, are showing signs of not hope, but of death. The EPRDF and the PM needs to focus on what the internal issues and the concerns of these numbers. However, we should also know these numbers of fatalities are people, not just mere statistics. That is why the PM should take action and not see the surge, but a healthy decline. As the public should worry about this too. Since the appointment of the PM gave us much hope, but the reality of his reign isn’t as positive as it could have been. Peace.

Is the Ogaden crisis escalating into a civil-war?

The Somali Region or the Ogaden Region have been under-fire for months. Over the weekend the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) send the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) to takeover the capital of the region, they ceased the important buildings as the looting and destroying of city, therefore, the army took the Parliament, the banks and major buildings. While the local group Heego of Abdi Illey created havoc. By Saturday, there was reports of calm, but the army was out and the Liyu Police had taken control.

Today on Monday after time in house-arrest, Illey have been sacked and he has gotten a successor by the authorities. However, the violence isn’t slowing down, but escalating to heavy proportions. You can wonder how many Somali people have to die, because of the will of Oromo to annex this region and its resources. Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) and the EPRDF needs to react and stop the violence. That Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali have been silent and not really reacted, but let the Oromo attack these areas and killing, also accepting the army ceasing JigJjiga, isn’t a good sign. That is a sign of internal battlefield within the Federal Republic. Not pacing down, but more violence and more hurt for innocent civilians.

The town of Tuliguleed has been a flash point for conflict between indigenous Somalis and Oromo settlers in the past but what has transpired in the past 24 hours has never been seen before. Heavily armed Oromo militia’s launched an indiscriminate attack on multiple Somali inhabited villages on the border between Ogaden and the neighboring Oromo regional state. Armed Oromo militia’s entered the villages and began indiscriminately opening fire on civilians, forcing hundreds to flee to the nearby town of Tuliguleed and the surrounding areas. The rogue paramilitary militia’s began subsequently burning villages to the ground, till it was completely ash. A total of nine villages where burned to the ground” (Halgan Media – ‘Oromo Militia’s Burn Down Nine Villages In Ogaden Within The Past 24 Hours’ 06.08.2018 link: http://halganmedia.net/oromo-militias-burn-down-nine-villages-in-ogaden-within-the-past-24-hours/).

There are reports of violence also in Harar, Dire Dawa and not only in the areas around Jigjiga. But this is deliberate activity, especially when the authorities have cut the Telecommunications, the internet and everything else used to spread a single word. This is what the EPRDF have done in Amhara and Oromia, when they have forced their State of Emergency to control these areas. Instead of doing it there by the Tigray People’s Liberation Force (TPLF), not the Queero and the Oromos feels big enough to charge at the people of Ogaden. This happens as the oil revenue has come.

This comes after killings last month in Moyale, as their been movement and seems to be planned violence now within the Ogaden. Like they want to burn and destroy, so they can move in and occupy it. It is an ancient tactic done by plenty and now the Oromo is doing it to their Somali brothers. This is sad as the Oromo and Oromia have been protesting and fighting for their rights. Instead of living in solidarity and trying to forge unity with the rest of the Federal Republic. They are using violence against brothers. That is just sad and mediocre of the people whose deserved to be free from toils of the TPLF. Is using the same means and deception of violence against others. They should know better, because they really had their hurt and pain for so long because of EPRDF.

It is impossible to know at the moment how many whose died in the skirmishes from ENDF and Queero in Ogaden. But each one, is one to many, just like every single one dying in Oromia because of the TPLF, was one to many. No one deserves to die because of the attitude of supremacy or ideals of that sort. Peace.

Djibouti: Le Premier Ministre – Communique du Gouvernment de la Republique de Djibouti (06.08.2018)