Somalia: What is ENDF mandate and mission inside the Federal Republic?

“BREAKING: Hundreds of Ethiopian troops and vehicles have crossed the border of Somalia into the town of Dolow in Gedo. These troops will open bases in Dolow and Beledhawo to support the Gedo Regional Administration” (The Daily Jubba, 06.08.2022).

Yesterday it was reported that the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) entered and deployed itself in the Gedo region of the Jubaland State. There been no announcement or memorandums officially published from either party. There has been official communication from the Federal Member State (FMS) of Jubaland. Neither has Villa Somalia or any of the Federal Government of Somalia spoken out on it either. Lastly, it has been silent from the Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia or the ENDF as well.

This is just troubling as the neighbour here is practically “invading” and occupying parts of border territories of Somalia without any concern. Especially, when we cannot know the mandate, mission or the goals of the operation. This is interfering and not respecting the territorial integrity. The Ethiopian government would have gone to war if the Sudanese Armed Forces went out of the contested areas around the border and did similar acts in the Tigray region. Therefore, this is questionable at best.

We know the Al-Shabab and the conflict with them has spiralled out lately. There been skirmishes on the border and the ENDF has defended it’s territories in the Ogaden (Somali) Region. That has been established and known about. As yet another conflict the ENDF has to deal with and use it’s capacity to take control over.

Some has stated and wondered why the new Somali President hasn’t visited Addis Ababa and such. He has been elsewhere in the Horn of Africa and visited allies. However, he never went to Ethiopia and visited Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. There been talks and rumours speculating that there been a fallout after Abiy lost his ally Farmaajo. Therefore, the recent act seems possibly like a revenge or a retaliation. Also, as the Al-Shabaab suddenly attacked Ethiopia too. It is all coincidently happening as the new Somali President is being in-charge.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has to both look into the leadership in Jubaland State and the Gedo region. If they allowed this with or without prior consent from the regional leadership. Secondly, the Villa Somalia needs to diplomatically establish why Ethiopian forces did enter and such. This is a clear indication that Mogadishu and Addis Ababa has lot of trouble brewing between them.

Abiy has possibly started another proxy-war and does so possibly by being allowed by regional leadership to enter. That is showing a lack of coordination and clear-cut policies of the Villa Somalia. They are showing weakness instead of strength. The neighbour is taking advantage of fragile and porous borders. In such a manner, that the integrity and the sovereignty doesn’t matter to it.

The next few days will be interesting. Especially to see how the new administration in Mogadishu takes it and acts. Because, this is happening on their turf and on their territory. The ENDF is the outsider and certainly has a questionable task to explain why they are there…

This will be monitored and followed. Since the signs are worrying and the air-silence isn’t making things any better. Peace.

Ethiopia: Federal Supreme Court – Charges Withdrawn by the Public Prosecutor on January 6th, 2022 (10.01.2022)

Ethiopia: Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) – Statement from OFC leaders upon their release from wrongful imprisonment (11.01.2022)

Ethiopia: Oromo Community of Minnesota – Oromo Community of Minnesota Statement on the Release of Oromo Political Prisoners (09.01.2022)

Ethiopia: International Oromo Laywers Association (IOLA) – International Oromo Lawyers Association’s Statement on the Release of Political Prisoners (09.01.2022)

Ethiopia: Tigray External Affairs Office – Press Statement on Airstrikes on Internally Displaced Person (IDPs) Camp (09.01.2022)

Ethiopia: Congress for Somali Caucus – Press Statement on Worsening Drought in Somali Region (09.01.2022)

Ethiopia: The World Oromo Congress (WOC) – Statement on the Threats against the Security of Oromo Political Prisoners (26.11.2021)

Ethiopia: Press Release by the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces (UFEFCF) on Ongoing Genocide in Ethiopia! – Subjecting the Entire People of Tigray to Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide in Ethiopia Must Be Immediately Stopped and Condemned in the Strongest Possible Terms! (26.11.2021)

Ethiopia: Abiy sounds like his winning the war…

“What you see behind me is a mountain area that was a strong hold for the enemy until yesterday. Now we have managed to clear the area fully. The morale of the defence forces is really great. This war is being undertaken with great feat. Now we have taken Kasagita. Today we will take over Chifra and Burqa. We will continue until Ethiopia’s freedom is ensured. We want to see is an Ethiopia that stands on our sacrifices – either to be Ethiopian or to be Ethiopia. We are confident that we will make this happen through victory. Our people are beside us” (…) “Our people beside us. Our brothers in Ethiopia are using all their capacity to making their voices heard. Academics are making their voices heard. Our role then is to be at the forefront leading the forces and ensuring success. You have seen the victory attained in a one day battle. This will continue with many great victories. The enemy does not have the posture that can compete with us. We will win. And we will transfer a free and prosperous country for our children. That is what we are here to do. And the results are good.” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali at the frontline in Afar Region (26.11.2021).

The Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy released a video from the frontline in Afar Region. The area where the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) have stagnate and not been able to get through. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and Afar Regional Special Forces have been able to stop the invasion from the TDF, which had plans to get to the strategic town of Mille. However, this is something the TDF haven’t been able too and they have been hit back there.

What is clear here is that the ‘counteroffensive’ is done in the Bati and Chifra areas of the Afar Region. This is done while the TDF and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) alliance was moving forward and getting close to Addis Ababa (Finfinne). This is a clear motivation to stifle movement forward or advancing in strategic parts of the Amhara Region. While the TDF-OLA alliance have been able to create a lot of damage there. While the ENDF and allies are trying to get back into Tigray region by manoeuvring with additional manpower in the Afar region. However, we don’t know how long that can hold.

Since, the ‘counteroffensive’ cannot continue or be viable. If the Debre Birhan is falling. As the sooner or later is encircling Addis Ababa. As the OLA and the joint forces on the frontline will have ability to advance for several parts of Amhara and Oromia. That is why the ENDF have to return back and redeploy to safeguard the capital, which they cannot afford to loose to the United Front against the ENDF and it’s allies.

What is striking about the PM is that his still have the same rhetoric, as he had of late. While only claiming his forces are fighting for Ethiopia. Just like the TDF-OLA United Front isn’t fighting for the Republic either. That is like saying only your side is fighting a just war. This just shows the current narrative and undermining the others. However, that is natural, as the PM and allies ordered the war and it has backfired.

The PM now wants to seem confident…. He wants it seem like they have control and has strengthen their cause. Abiy is forgetting about the current Nationwide State of Emergency and all the revisions of it. Which only shows the problems of the state, as well, as the need for the PM to be in the frontline. Since the Head of State should be in the situation room and discuss the overview of the war. So, he could have a total oversight over the conflict he ordered in November 2020. Now, he has to sound like he got it, but we know he don’t. As there are speculations of advancing TDF in Amhara region on several of fronts. This means they are encircling Addis Ababa.

The TDF-OLA United Front aiming at Addis Ababa would hurt the FDRE more than taking Mille. At this point, that makes more sense and the victory of bashing itself in the capital would damage the PM forever. To take a territory in Afar region wouldn’t do the same damage to his reputation or his armies. This is maybe why they have focused their troops on the fronts in Amhara region. That is clear by how things are going.

Lastly, it’s been a while since I seen someone so fresh and clean at a frontline. Seemed like he was untouched and straight from the shower. No dust, no wrinkled clothes and just Metal Gear Solid or Battlefield for PlayStation ready. However, but who I am to judge. I am sure he just came directly from the Palace to the frontline that day. Peace.