A look into the UN Interim Report of November 2019 on South Sudan

Today, I went through the “Interim report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan submitted pursuant to resolution 2471 (2019)”, which was interesting to say the least. Especially, considering the United States is backing away. They are dispatching their ambassador and dropping out of the picture. While the Troika partners haven’t supported the US nor shown any significant interest in the sudden moves. Neither has there been any big-talks about the new US sanctions on South Sudanese officials and such. Therefore, this report sets the standard, as we are seeing the hundred days of delay to implement the revitalized peace agreement of 2018. Which has been postponed twice and surely, will need more time. Even if the supposed allies are determined to push it through without any consideration on the affects on the ground.

This is why the UN Experts Panel Report is important. As it shows what they are considering the issues at this very moment. It is compelling and telling. This is not the biggest report, neither the most shocking one either. This is a straight forward UN report with very little left to imagination.

I’m just leaving down here a few figments of the UN Report. To show to what extent that the UN experts see as the issues and the unresolved matters in South Sudan.

The Panel assesses that Mr. Kiir is unwilling to alter the current situation of states and boundaries because changes would displease various sectors of his ethnic Dinka power base and also limit the allotment of local administration posts to government loyalists. Meanwhile, Mr. Machar is aware that entering the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity with no government concessions on this issue risks alienating significant portions of his constituency. In particular, these include supporters outside the core Nuer base of SPLM/A-IO, such as the Shilluk under the leadership of General Johnson Olony, Fertit communities and most of the forces still loyal to SPLM/A-IO in the former Eastern Equatoria, Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria States. In this case, SPLM/A-IO has already lost many supporters to one of the non-signatory armed groups, NAS, which is led by General Thomas Cirillo Swaka” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).

On the basis of conversations with political and military representatives of the various signatories to the Agreement, including the Government, the Panel assesses that some of the outstanding issues will take months to resolve. For example, the creation of the 83,000 strong necessary unified forces is far behind schedule. By 7 October 2019, only 7,474 SSPDF personnel had been registered, compared with about 32,000 opposition fighters“ (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).

Mr. Kiir has exhibited no intention of relinquishing key security powers retained by the National Security Service, which continues to operate unchecked. As the Panel has previously reported, the Director General of the Internal Security Bureau, Lieutenant General Akol Koor Kuc, has continued to suppress dissenting voices with no regard for legal due process (see sect. IV)” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).

Uganda has inconsistently engaged in the South Sudan mediation process. When it does, the Panel notes that it has emboldened the hard-line positions of the incumbent Government. Furthermore, the Panel has also corroborated information that the Uganda People’s Defence Forces are inside the territory of South Sudan, further complicating the Ugandan role in pushing for the implementation of the Agreement (see sect. III)” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).

These few figments shows a dire reality, which only scratches the surface of what is ahead of the Republic. There is no short-cuts and no easy way out. Even as the stakeholders, the mediators and everyone involved got to see this. Even as the US is bailing out like a spoiled brat for not getting their way. Like they don’t know what has happen over the years, like they haven’t followed the decades of liberation battle, than after liberation the prolonged civil war. It’s like they think can fix that in year. Which is dangerous thinking, but shows how bad they are at diplomacy and negotiations at the moment.

However, the UN Report is really saying some things, which is vital. That the President Kiir haven’t held his bargain and given away powers. Tried to give way or shown the needed steps for progressing the implementation of the revitalized agreement. Machar of SPLM/A-IO has also shown reluctant movements of his forces and his team, as he is afraid of losing foothold in his strongholds of the Republic. Therefore, the half-baked approach of both parties are undermining the process of implementation.

What was more striking is that the supposed mediator of Entebbe and Uganda are still having forces within the Republic. His also backing one party, which is favourable for the neighbour. This is yet another time, the Ugandans are violations of the sovereignty and a peace agreement. While the government has no issues of silencing dissidents and not following up on requests of human rights violations nor getting steps of helping the refugees elsewhere. All of these are warning signs, but the stakeholders, the leaders themselves and the ones who wants to be statesmen has to step up and make the plate. So, that they can serve the public what it need, a meal and safety, not more war-games and looting. That will not be easy for former war-lords, but if they will be favourable remembered, this is the best time as ever to do that.

Conclusion:

By focusing on elite-level compromise and a deadline for the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity, this approach has favoured the absence of war over building the conditions for durable, inclusive and genuine peace for the millions of exhausted civilians. Regional and international mediators should focus on facilitating a return to constructive and inclusive dialogue and to the letter of the Agreement, which is the only agreed framework for peace” (UN – ‘S/2019/897’ 2019).

This conclusion says it all and what has been the point of it all. Instead of making something genuine, the leaders have bought time. They have tried to buy time to re-up, instead laying the groundwork for something sustainable. To build that will take time and effort, this will not be built in a 100 days. Even if one part of the Troika believes that, which is foolish at best.

The South Sudanese needs time, they need time to continue their pursuit and finds ways to lay down their arms. That will not be easy, it will cost, but if we are just bargaining for cease-fires over sustainable peace. We will not end anywhere else, than a new cycle of warlords and a never ending story of endless suffering in the hands of haste. A haste that we could have been avoided. Because, some gentlemen wanted to eat all the spoils. Peace.

South Sudan: National Dialogue Leadership, Steering Committee & Secretariat – The Communique of the Business Community Conference (22.11.2019)

South Sudan: UNMISS – Violence against civilians and peacekeepers at UN protection site condemned by community leaders and UNMISS (25.11.2019)

South Sudan: Statement of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the AU Ad Hoc High-Level Committee for South Sudan (C5) – (20.11.2019)

South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA): Communique (20.11.2019)

South Sudan: National Dialogue Leadership, Steering Committee & Secretariat – The Communique of the Faith-Based Institutions Conference (19.11.2019)

United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Chief Urges Parties to Accelerate Efforts to Implement Peace (22.11.2019)

The Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMISS has urged parties to the peace deal to accelerate their efforts to fully implement the agreement so that a transitional government can be formed. rAt a press conference in Juba on November 20, 2019, David Shearer said the key ingredient needed to progress peace in South Sudan is political will. r“If parties want to fully implement the agreement and form a transitional government, they can, if that will exists,” he said. rProgress is also needed to reunify forces so that parties have the trust and confidence needed to join a transitional government, negotiation and political settlement of the states and boundaries issue is required and steps must be taken to resolve the status of Opposition Leader, Dr. Riek Machar, so that he can travel freely to Juba for peace talks. rThe SRSG also recommended that a trust fund or similar mechanism with independent oversight be set up to monitor the use of resources being used to implement the agreement.rUN Photo: Isaac Billy

The head of UNMISS urged parties to accelerate efforts to implement the peace agreement and detailed areas that he believes needs to be urgently progressed.

JUBA, South Sudan, November 22, 2019 – In Pibor, thousands of people watched as their homes were destroyed and crops washed away by heavy rains over the past few weeks.

Residents of this community in the Jonglei region of South Sudan are among 900,000 people affected by widespread destruction caused by flooding. An emergency humanitarian response is underway, but the devastation has exacerbated already immense human suffering caused by the five-year long civil war.

The Special Representative of the Secretary-General David Shearer highlighted the plight of those affected by the downpours. At the press conference in Juba, he also thanked donors for contributing millions of dollars to the aid effort.

However, he noted that, while the water will subside, real relief for the people of South Sudan will only come when durable peace is achieved.

A peace deal was signed in September 2018. The ceasefire brought a welcome reprieve from the political violence that has plagued the country since 2013. However, implementation of the agreement has been slow and, earlier this month, parties delayed the formation of a transitional government for a further 100 days, on top of a previous six-month extension.

“The extension has eased some anxiety – at least temporarily – because the ceasefire will be preserved, and the implementation of the agreement can continue,” said David Shearer. “But, at a grassroots level, some people are expressing disappointment, and even anger at the further delay. They told us that they are frustrated by what they see as a failure to unite the country despite the promises made and they are beginning to feel disillusioned.”

The head of UNMISS urged parties to accelerate efforts to implement the peace agreement and detailed areas that he believes needs to be urgently progressed.

“First, and most importantly, the key ingredient that is needed is political will. If the parties want to fully implement the agreement and form a transitional government, they can, if that will exists,” he said. “Second, on the reunification of forces, we need a substantial amount of progress to give all parties trust and confidence coming into a transitional government. The progress made will be a measure of the parties’ commitment to peace.”

Other issues highlighted by the Special Representative are the need for negotiation and political settlement of the number of states and their boundaries, and for steps to be taken to resolve the status of Opposition Leader Dr. Riek Machar, so that he can travel freely to Juba for peace talks.

The matter of resources needed to implement the agreement is also a major talking point among South Sudanese.

“We hear different figures from different sources about how much funding has been released,” said David Shearer. “Transparency is urgently needed…Essentially we believe a trust fund or something similar with independent oversight is needed.”

Such a mechanism would enable accountability and provide reassurance that supplies purchased are reaching cantonment sites. This is important because troops from the various armed forces are gathering at sites across the country, but a lack of food and medicine at some locations is giving them no choice but to leave and find somewhere else where their basic needs are met.

Mr. Shearer highlighted the critical role of the guarantors, Uganda and Sudan, in continuing to show strong leadership in keeping the parties on task.

He said the formation of a transitional government is important because it signals the beginning of preparations for elections.

“Elections provide the opportunity to resolve differences through democratic rather than violent means. They give citizens the right to select their own leaders and hold them to account,” said David Shearer. “That will, however, require political space – the freedom for parties to campaign, organize and, even, criticize. That environment does not yet exist.”

He added that there is a palpable desire for peace in communities across the country. People’s expectations are high because they want the opportunity to rebuild their lives and enjoy the prosperous future that they fought so hard for when they won independence eight years ago.

“Those expectations must be met in 2020,” he said. “The clock is ticking.”

South Sudan: SPLM/A-IO – Press Release – On the Statement of the AU Ambassador to South Sudan (22.11.2019)

Communique of the 894th meeting of the African Union Peace and Security Council, on the situation in the Republic of South Sudan (14.11.2019)

South Sudan: The Episcopal Church of South Sudan’s Communique (15.11.2019)