South Sudan: Dr. Riek Machar Teny is put under house-arrest in Juba

South Sudan’s government has deployed security forces around First Vice President Riek Machar’s house in Juba. Government spokesperson Michael Makuei says the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces and national security forces are being deployed for Machar’s own safety. A signatory to the South Sudan 2018 peace agreement says the implementation of the deal has stalled. Rajab Mohandis says the main body monitoring the deal has done very little to report recent attacks by the South Sudan army on opposition bases across the country. And, some SPLM-IO officials and supporters are calling on the brokers of the revitalized peace deal to intervene immediately, arguing that the agreement is on the verge of collapse” (South Sudan In Focus, 28.03.2022).

Things are really hot in Juba, as both parties are addressing it. SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO have both addressed the movements of the weekend. This Monday isn’t getting better and the ramifications of it is dire. As the SPLM-IG is directing blame and SPLM-IO has asked the IGAD to help to mediate. Clearly, things are going sour, as SPLM-IO has reacted to the recent appointments and purge of opposition generals. Therefore, things are not getting better.

This in combination of the attacks on SPLM-IO bases in the Unity State and Upper Nile State. That is all causing alarm. As SPLM-IO renounced their participation in the R-JMEC and the Technical Committee for implementation of the R-ARCSS.

We are seeing movement that reminds us of 2013 and 2016. The same sorts of actions by both parties. They are skirmishes and movements of troops by the South Sudan People’s Defence Force (SSPDF) against the SPLM/A-IO bases. These are orders by the President… who is already acted with Presidential Decree of appointing people in government without consent or dialogue with fellow signatories.

Machar has been in house-arrest before and what is happening to him isn’t anything new. It is just a new direct assault on him and his party. Therefore, no one should be shocked by this. It is a clear violation and escalation of the state. As it is targeting him and his party, which he has purged generals from in recent time.

We have to see how this goes, but the signs are not any good. Last time in 2016 he fled Juba after 48 hours and got a base of his troops within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). He was later for a long time house arrested in South Africa. This is why he know the price of aiming for power and being a leader of SPLM/A-IO.

He and Kiir needs to talks and settle the grievances before they order a new civil war. Because, this is how it has started before and they not keeping Machar safe, but instead infuriating his troops and his commander. This fragile situation is only getting more torn. That’s what should frighten the President and his government. However, it seems like his thriving on it. Peace.

South Sudan: The President – Salva Kiir Mayardit – Press Statement (28.03.2022)

South Sudan: First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar – Press Release (28.03.2022)

South Sudan: FVP Dr. Riek Machar letter to Sudanese President Al-Burhan with the SPLM/SPLA(IO) Position on Recommitment of Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and Permanent Ceasefire and Security Arrangements (26.03.2022)

South Sudan: SSPDF attacks on President Orders SPLM-IO bases in Upper Nile and Unity State [Alarming escalations and a dire need for talks]

There are frightening news from Juba and South Sudan. This week has been showing the dire side of the Republic. There are movements of both the state and other signatories of the R-ARCSS. As there are appointments and also military moves, which implicates two main culprits. These have sadly fought before and they can easily do it again.

These two leaders within South Sudan is President Salva Kiir Mayardit and First Vice-President Dr. Riek Machar Teny. Both of them have fought and the latest agreement has ceased this since 2018. There have been skirmishes and usage of military within South Sudan. However, not on a scale of a civil war, which was stopped by the Khartoum Declaration and R-ARCSS. Therefore, the need to adhere and implement it is even more important. Because, that is how to build trust and institutions.

What we are reading and seeing is similar to 2013 and 2016. The world and the Republic has seen these sorts of actions done by both parties then. The SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO has both fought each other. Before the agreement Machar had to flee into exile and was stationed outside of South Sudan for a long time. Therefore, these two knows the costs of war and should avoid that by any means. They have seen the costs and the suffering it has caused. Instead of finding solutions and procedures for the future. It is instead trying to get an upper-hand in a supposed election cycle, which haven’t been scheduled or written road-map about. However, the state haven’t implemented the stipulations or prepared the states for an election.

Here is the recent reports over the weekend:

The SPLM-IO has issued a statement rejecting last week’s decree by President Salva Kiir announcing command of the unified forces. SPLM-IO says the President’s decree left out some positions of command” (Radio Miraya, 27.03.2022).

UBA – A South Sudan army general turned member of Pan African parliament has said that ongoing attacks by South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) are attempts to displace members of constituencies in SPLM-IO-controlled areas and manipulate elections in favor of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. There has been fighting in Upper Nile and Unity state where South Sudan army forces in the two states launched attacks on several bases belonging to the main armed opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) led by First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar Teny” (…) “In a statement, Major-General Mabior Riiny Lual, said the ongoing conflict in Upper Nile state is an indication that the SPLM-IG want to go to elections and that the war is a campaign by the Kiir-led army to displace constituencies in opposition-controlled areas so that elections are manipulated in favor of Kiir.“The war in Upper Nile is an indication that there is a determination by SPLM to go for elections. The war is an attempt to displace constituencies of SPLM-IO to discourage them from voting,” he said in a statement seen by Sudans Post on Friday evening” (South Sudan Uncensored – ‘TOP GENERAL SAYS ATTACKS ON SPLA-IO ”IS AN ATTEMPT TO DISPLACE CONSTITUENCIES TO MANIPULATE ELECTIONS” (26.03.2022).

That this is happening now is a worrying sign. The ending of collaborations and working in connection with R-JMEC and other councils from SPLM/A-IO should be a sign of a stalemate. While the President also appoints and leaves out the FVP out of his Presidential Decrees. That is working without the parts of government, which is needed.

This shows that the communication between the parties has stopped and it is more needed than ever. The two leaders needs to talk and secure peace. Instead of continuing to escalate. Innocent lives will be taken and people will die over their power games. Which these two are only gaining. While the Republic is losing in general.

South Sudan doesn’t need more violence and death. Kiir and Machar has been main culprits of conflict. That’s why these two needs to talk and find ways out of this. While we are seeing things that resemble before the R-ARCSS. In 2022 these needs talks and not weapons. The arms and the solo-runs should be over. Time for institutionalization and state building. However, that is going slow, because that will weaken the President and has power. He wants power and ensure he has that indefinitely.

We have to hope that these two finds a way and a forum to meet. Before the attacks and skirmishes escalates further. The state and the President has to ensure the trust. He is the Head of State and if he finds himself in a new civil war because of his pride. Than his self-importance is destructive to the state. Neither is it any good, if Machar cannot try to reach out and show humility. However, these are both men of war and that what they know the most. It has only been a short window without major conflict.

South Sudan needs peace and not war. Peace.

South Sudan: Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM-(IO)) – Press Release (26.03.2022)

South Sudan: Humanitarian Coordinator in South Sudan condemns attacks on UN humanitarian convoy (25.03.2022)

Three people on the convoy were killed, and one person was wounded.

JUBA, South Sudan, March 25, 2022 – The Humanitarian Coordinator in South Sudan, Ms. Sara Beysolow Nyanti and the Humanitarian Coordinator ad interim (a.i.), Mr. Arafat Jamal condemn the targeted attack on a convoy carrying humanitarian commodities. They call on the perpetrators to respect international law and humanitarian staff and assets, and demand that authorities make every effort to protect communities, humanitarian personnel and assets across the country.

On 24 March 2022, a convoy of commercial trucks carrying vital life-saving food commodities from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) was attacked between Gadiang and Yuai in Jonglei state. Three people on the convoy were killed, and one person was wounded.

“This attack is completely unacceptable. This is not the first of these incidents in this area. Criminals who choose to use violence to serve themselves ensure vulnerable people suffer more. If humanitarians and humanitarian assets are not protected, humanitarian assistance to that area will have to stop,” said Ms Nyanti.

On behalf of the humanitarian community, Mr Jamal extended his sincerest condolences to the family and loved ones of the colleagues who were killed and injured. “I have unfailing admiration for everyone who helps and supports people in need. It is devastating to realize that people undertaking vital work can be executed so heartlessly. The crime is compounded when these attacks go unpunished. These killers must not be allowed to roam free. I call on the Government to immediately implement its commitments to ensure civilians, including humanitarians, are safe,” said Mr. Jamal.

South Sudan continues to be one of the most dangerous places for aid workers, with 319 violent incidents reported in 2021 targeting humanitarian personnel and assets, including 5 aid workers killed. This is the fourth such incident targeting humanitarian commodities since 19 December 2021 in Jongeli. Attacks of this nature disrupt humanitarian operations and affect the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable people. The humanitarian community estimates that there are 1.7 million people in Jonglei in need.

Ms Nyanti is currently visiting donor capitals to raise the profile of the needs of people in South Sudan and advocating for support. “When humanitarian assistance is attacked, it is the people in need who suffer. Indeed, such incidents discourage those donor countries who would otherwise invest in South Sudan,” she lamented.

South Sudan: Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM-(IO)) – Press Release (22.03.2022)

Opinion: Since the SPLM/A-(IO) withdraws from R-JMEC – Is this the end of the R-ARCSS as we know it?

Today on the 22nd March 2022 the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (In-Opposition) – (SPLM-(IO)) has today written to the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) who has the oversight and ensure the implementation of the 2018 peace agreement known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

We already knew that the R-ARCSS was slowly implemented and there was lacking will to finalize the implementation of it. It has been delayed and terribly slow. While things have not moved forward.

The Rome Declaration of 2020 brokered an agreement, which secured a peace agreement with several opposition groups, which included SSOMA, SPLM-IO and NDM. However, since then there has been little to nothing to show for it.

We don’t know if this is the aftermath of the agreements made between the rebels of SPLM/A(IO), which signed an agreement with SPLM-IG in January 2022. This was Khartoum Peace Agreement between the SPLM-IG with the Agwelek Forces and the SPLM/A-(IO) Kit-Gwang. These was signed on the same day and ensured that the R-TGoNU and SPLM-IG had more former rebels in agreement with them. Meaning the SPLM-IG had participated and taken in the ones who was directly defying First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar.

Now today only about two months later the SPLM/A-IO main body and second biggest party in the R-ARCSS is suspending it’s participation the 2018 peace agreement. That is a worrying sign. There has already been skirmishes and targeted attacks. If this isn’t handled with care and with dialogue. It could soon easily turn bloody.

The SPLM-IG and President Salva Kiir Mayardit has been here before and so has Dr. Riek Machar. These has fought before and now there are even more possible hurdles as well. South Sudan has still other rebels and outfits, which causes conflict in respective states. However, these two can wage war and that’s what they have done and made their careers doing.

While we should hope for and possibly see these gentlemen talk. We have in the past seen when a stalemate and deadlock. These gentlemen order the guns and tanks onto the streets. The last civil war which lasted between 2013-2018 killed 382,000 and unknown amount of refugees. There is still ramifications from this one felt on the ground and unresolved suffering from the ones who caught in the cross-fire. Therefore, the Republic don’t need another war or a civil-war for that matter.

SPLM-IG should call and invite the leadership of SPLM/A-(IO) to talks. Just to de-escalate things and find common ground for solutions ahead. Since, this is only making things more fragile and paining the R-ARCSS. Which is already a long and prolonged process with a lot of interim and temporary mechanisms. The state needs to institutionalize itself. So, that these sorts of issues cannot risk the whole process and re-start conflict.

That’s why there is a need for sit-down and talks. Since the signal of this letter can cause real ramifications and even as slow as the R-ARCSS implementation has been going. Many of us was waiting for a letter or asking a delay or prolonging it. Because, most of us as outsiders saw it impossible to finish the time-line of R-ARCSS on time.

However, the latest move by SPLM/A-(IO) is only making the situation more dire and should be seen as a warning. The TGoNU and other R-ARCSS signatories should call this out and ensure things back to “normal” and into formal procedural terms. As this is set a precedence and worrying times ahead. We don’t know what sort of reaction SPLM-IG will have, but they should consider their next step. This is a slap in the face and an official dismissal by Dr. Riek Machar towards President Salva Kiir.

These two who knows each other and who has a long history. They should talk and iron the issues out. The time for bloodshed and war should be over. The R-ARCSS kept the peace for about 4 years. Yes, with lots of breaches and with irregular use of arms. While that is bad and caused more hurt than it should. We know the civil war will be much worse and the consequences even higher. Therefore, instead of burying the R-ARCSS and all the interim bodies, which is moving forward. There is time to reflect, talk and find solutions. Not go back to the arms and guns, which resolved things in the past.

That’s why I am firm on talks and dialogue. This is what is needed, because the guns and war only take you so far. Which in the end… only get you to have more pain and suffering on third parties. More civilians will die and more people flee into neighbouring countries. It will not generate a sustainable peace, but instead only create more hostilities. These two leaders should know that perfectly well and better than most.

Therefore, with the letter of suspending and not participating in the R-JMEC from SPLM/A-(IO) should be the sign for Kiir to talk and find ways to mend the difference. In such a manner, which ceases the uncertainty and gives relief for both parties. That is better than letting this one slide and unknowingly destroy 4 years of work and possibilities of peace. This will be all on them and they would again create war on their terms, instead of serving the population who wants and deserves peace. Peace.

South Sudan: Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/SPLA (IO)) letter to R-JMEC – Suspension of our Participation in the Security Mechanisms meetings, including RJMEC Meetings (22.03.2022)