South Sudan: Will President Kiir risk more Financial Transparency? [Since the IMF and World Bank cancelled all loans to the Republic]

The Ministry of Finance has said the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have cancelled all loans for South Sudan until the financial, and economic management reforms stated in Chapter Four of the September 2018 revitalised peace agreement are fully implemented. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave the conditions during the recent visit of the government delegation to Washington, DC, USA. The Minister of Finance and Planning, Agak Achuil Lual, headed the delegation. Agak and his accompanying delegates, who included the Governor of the Central Bank, Moses Makur, took part in the World Bank-IMF meetings that focused on the world economic outlook in relation to Ukraine’s war and the impact on global financial stability” (Atar News – ‘”NO MORE LOANS FOR SOUTH SUDAN”, SAYS WORLD BANK AND IMF’ 07.05.2022).

These days things are going to get hectic for the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU) and for the signatories of the R-ARCSS. Especially the leaders of the SPLM-IG, the inner-circle around the President. One should suspect that the administration or R-TGoNU needs to quickly reform, but by doing so. The skeletons in the closet will be unleashed. While there are already some who is unleashed on the public.

President Salva Kiir Mayardit should be worried about these revelations. The costs of not getting loans from the International Monetary Funds and the World Bank is stopping fiscal funds to run the government. As well, as the issues with the shady or shoddy loans on futures on the petroleum exports from the South Sudan. This is unleashed on the public, as the IMF/WB is asking for the Chapter 4 of the R-ARCSS to be implemented.

Here is quotes from the UN Experts Report of April 2022:

The Panel also identified efforts by the Office of the President to accrue additional oil-backed debt to finance contracts awarded to favoured businessmen” (UN Experts Report – ‘S/2022/359’ April 2022).

The Panel confirmed that Amuk for Trading and Investment was ultimately controlled by Kur Ajing Ater, a prominent South Sudanese businessman. In a previous report (S/2019/301), the Panel described how another company controlled by Kur Ajing Ater, Lou for Trading and Investment, had been awarded similarly outsized procurement contracts by the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces, including for food “ (…) “87. The Office of the President played a prominent role in the agreement, including the President himself, his National Security Adviser and other senior staff, several of whom had been present at the signing of the deal in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. In confidential meeting minutes from a review of the 2018 contracts with Kur Ajing Ater, a senior South Sudan People’s Defence Forces official complained that “there are irregularities in this contract”, but that “the decision was from higher authorities so we can do nothing about it”” (UN Experts Report – ‘S/2022/359’ April 2022).

Within the chaotic system of the public finances of South Sudan, political and security officials continued to find opportunities to use their power and influence to divert significant public resources for their own benefit” (UN Experts Report – ‘S/2022/359’ April 2022).

General Principals of Chapter IV in R-ARCSS:


“The RTGoNU shall establish a high-level, competent and effective oversight mechanism that shall control revenues collection, budgeting, revenue allocation and expenditure. The oversight mechanism may solicit technical and advisory resources on economic governance from the regional and international community. The mechanism shall be guided by principles of mutual consent in accountability” (R-ARCSS, 2018).

The wealth of South Sudan shall be shared equitably so as to enable each level of government to discharge its reconstruction, development, legal and constitutional obligations, duties and responsibilities” (R-ARCSS, 2018).

Revenue sharing shall reflect a commitment to devolution of powers and resources, and the decentralization of decision-making in regard to development, service delivery and governance” (R-ARCSS, 2018).

When you read these general principles in comparison to the UN Experts Report of April 2022. You see the misgivings and what the R-TGoNU is doing at the moment. How profitable the petroleum and the loan agreements are for certain individuals and the close proximity to the Office of the President. These shady deals are beneficial for the ones in power, but not the Republic itself.

That’s why the President and the Office of the President knows that. If it follows the General Principals and implements the R-ARCSS. That would stifle and make it harder, if not impossible to sign on to such deals. The profits and the revenue from petroleum couldn’t get siphoned or get accessible to a chosen few. As the Financial Management and Oversight of such would unravel these sorts of agreement. Which is the reason why the IMF and World Bank now stops loaning funds to the South Sudan.

Do I think President Kiir will risk more financial transparency and mechanisms? No, not at this very moment he will not. Even if it hurts or cripples his government. Kiir will not empty his pockets or risk the growing wealth surrounding him. R-ARCSS was signed by him, but most likely never thought things would go down like this. He risked certain aspects, because he thought he could get away with that.

Now the greed and the powerful is unmasked. The Petro-Dollars are running wild in the Office of the President. While they know have to decide to continue to follow reforms or guidelines to loans from IMF/WB, which means to reform the financial institutions and mechanisms. Or forgo these while hoping for other means to bail the government out with fiscal funds. As the petroleum is sold with futures and insider trading, which is not benefiting the state or the people of South Sudan either. Peace.

South Sudan: Northern Bahr el Ghazal State-Aweil – Ministry of Information and Communication – Press Release (05.05.2022)

South Sudan: Central Equatoria State – Youth Union – Condemnation of the Killings caused by Cattle Keepers in Lobonok and Lainya (02.05.2022)

South Sudan: South Sudan Council of Churches – SSCC Recommitment to the 2015 Kigali Statement of Intent and the Action Plan for Peace (APP) – (29.04.2022)

South Sudan: Payams of Magwi County in Eastern Equatoria State – Press Release (25.04.2022)

South Sudan: Ministry of Health statement on declaring a cholera case in South Sudan (15.04.2022)

South Sudan: Top United Nations envoy condemns attacks on civilians, humanitarians; pledges electoral support and enhanced protection (14.04.2022)

UNMISS peacekeepers are currently monitoring the situation in Leer, patrolling constantly, and providing emergency medical assistance, as they are in other conflict hotspots across the country.

JUBA, South Sudan, April 14, 2022 – As subnational violence surges in parts of the world’s newest nation, South Sudan, communities here are also grappling with a deepening humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by climate change and COVID-19.

Recent weeks have also seen rising political tensions and competition.

It is against this complex backdrop, that the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), Nicholas Haysom, held a press conference at the mission’s headquarters in Juba today.

His first order of business: Renewed violence in Leer, Unity state, where thousands have been displaced, properties destroyed, and sexual violence is said to be rising.

“Only last week thousands of people in Leer, Unity State were forced to flee their homes following a surge of fighting along with disturbing reports of sexual violence, looting and destruction of civilian and humanitarian property,” said SRSG Haysom, underlining that the impact of such attacks are felt directly by communities, especially women and children.

“I strongly condemn these violent attacks on civilians but in particular attacks on humanitarians and looting of their life-saving supplies,” he added. “For humanitarians, saving lives should not mean losing lives.”

UNMISS peacekeepers are currently monitoring the situation in Leer, patrolling constantly, and providing emergency medical assistance, as they are in other conflict hotspots across the country.

“We will continue to advocate at the highest levels of government to assume a greater responsibility to intervene in the protection of civilians, which includes humanitarians,” assured the SRSG.

For Mr. Haysom, building sustained peace is a collective effort. In this regard, he commended all parties for reaching an agreement on the command-and-control structure of the Necessary Unified Forces, a key stipulation contained within the Revitalized Peace Agreement

“I applaud the parties for overcoming an impasse to reach an agreement on security arrangements regarding the unified command-and-control structure,” stated Mr. Haysom, adding that he hopes such progress in achieving peace targets will be an important step forward in protecting civilians and providing humanitarian assistance to those who need it the most.

“With the appointment of a unified command, we expect to see greater coherence in responding to local conflicts across the country.”

The SRSG also took note of the 12 April Presidential Decree integrating the South Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in Opposition (SPLA-iO) and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) into the blueprint of a unified army as well as police, security, prisons and civil defence services.

Moving on to the Security Council’s recent decision to renew the UN Peacekeeping mission’s mandate in South Sudan until March 2023, SRSG Haysom highlighted a significant addition to UNMISS’ ongoing peacekeeping, peacemaking, and peacebuilding efforts – electoral support.

“Upon the invitation from the Government, the Mission stands ready to support the South Sudanese in elections and in building their political institutions. The holding and timing of elections will remain a sovereign decision for the people and leaders of South Sudan,” he stated.

Relatedly, Mr. Haysom listed vital areas that must be addressed for all outstanding elements of the Peace Agreement to be implemented.

“Now that the parties have reached agreement on the unified command structure, the way is open for a surge on other critical tasks which includes transitional justice; undertaking financial, legal and judicial reforms; and the constitution making process which is fundamental to defining the social contract will underpin national unity,” he averred.

For its part, according to the SRSG, UNMISS will continue providing necessary technical support and work with local organisations to encourage public understanding on an inclusive constitution making process.

Furthermore, with merely 10 months of the transitional period remaining, SRSG Haysom reiterated the urgent need for all parties, including non-signatories, to come together and fully action the Revitalized Peace Agreement, so that the people of South Sudan can heal past wounds and look forward to a peaceful, prosperous future.

“A window of opportunity remains for South Sudan to complete its transition in accordance with the timeline set out in the Peace Agreement, though it is closing. Recent progress gives hope that the Government can accelerate implementation and make maximum use of the time left in the transitional period.”

South Sudan: Government of Jonglei State – Press Statement (12.04.2022)

South Sudan: Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation – On Current Speculation of the Dredging of the Rivers and Proposed Jonglei Canal Development Project (12.04.2022)

South Sudan: R-JMEC wants the R-TGoNU to recommit to full implementation of the R-ARCSS…

The signatories of the R-ARCSS in South Sudan is working slow with the implementation of it. That has been known for a year or so. That the SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO has made things difficult is very clear. As well, as the Presidential Decrees and appointments without consultation of the all parties in the R-TGoNU. This is why things seemed dangerously not long ago…

The newest security agreement and appointments in the national army only shows that. This shows how fragile and everyone is in it to eat. That is not only about SPLM-IO, but about SPLM-IG. This could be directed the SSOMA and other signatories. We know there are plenty of stakeholders who needs to assess their work and what is needed. Since, that seems to be put on the back-burner… and isn’t a vital part of the governance of today.

This is why R-JMEC can come with their rebukes and their reports, but the R-TGoNU doesn’t seem to be so concerned about their slow progress, if any. Since, they are just awaiting their turn to eat and that’s why this is repeating itself and comes on by month basis.

Just read these parts of the R-JMEC report which as released today:

It is to be noted that with just over two years since the formation of the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity (RTGoNU), progress made towards implementation of the R-ARCSS, remains relatively slow. During the first quarter of 2022 the most notable progress was made with the swearing in of the state assemblies, which completed the formation of the government structures at the national and state levels. Incremental progress was realised in the Transitional Security Arrangements (TSA), drawing attention to the management of the country’s resources and launching of the process for truth, reconciliation and healing” (R-JMEC, 11.04.2022).

With regard to the permanent Constitution making process under Chapter 6, there has been no progress to report during this quarter. The Constitutional Making Process Bill is still pending tabling and consideration by the reconstituted TNLA. However, even as the timeline for the implementation of the Revitalised Agreement is fast running out, considerable efforts have been made by RJMEC to emphasise the centrality of the permanent Constitution making process to the conduct of elections at the end of the Transitional Period under the Agreement, as well as for the sustainability of peace in South Sudan. This message was communicated clearly to the parties to the Agreement, the RTGoNU, the regional guarantors and to the AUPSC and the UN Security Council” (R-JMEC, 11.04.2022).

With just a little over eleven months to go to the end of the Transitional Period it is not surprising that increasing attention is being paid to the question of the holding of elections. It is critically important that any such elections are seen to be free, fair and credible. To get to this stage the Parties to the Agreement must carefully consider the outstanding activities and agree on a Roadmap that can be successfully negotiated to the end of the Transitional Period. This Roadmap should ideally prioritise activities that must be achievable and the requisite resources obtained to ensure that the tasks are carried out. On the heels of the progress made by the Parties in agreeing on the way towards the completion of the TSAs this same spirit of collaboration must continue to hold. Indeed, the people of South Sudan long weary of conflict and yearning for sustainable peace continue to look towards reaping any such dividends. Now is the time for the RTGoNU to recommit to the full implementation of the R-ARCSS, commit the necessary level of resources and work tirelessly to take the country down the road to lasting peace and prosperity” (R-JMEC, 11.04.2022).

These statements says what is needed. The R-JMEC report is also going into detail about the lack of implementation and issues that is not settled. Also, the well known attacks on bases, which caused the stir of late. We know the volatile ceasefire needs to be strengthen and not pushed, which seems to be the key aspect of the current climate between parties right now. That they are testing the boundaries and their ability to get ahead. While also testing the R-ARCSS itself for their own benefits.

This sort of report states important facts about the current regime and how they operate. How they are lacking and not addressing things in due time. Where there is lack of mechanisms and implementations, as the deadline is getting closer. We can only anticipate an extension and then another one. There shouldn’t be a hurry or a grand push for elections. Since, these parties are already in-fighting about plum-jobs as it is. They will not make things free or fair, as that would expose and possible take away their current power.

Instead, the stakeholders and everyone else should focus on the institutionalization of the Republic and the need to go away from the personalization of the state. Which will strengthen the state and gives more reason for a broader base and possible relief. It could also by accordance to itself, make way for promising elections down the line. Alas, maybe with characters and parties, which isn’t former militias and armed rebels, but instead civilians wanting to represent their nation or state. Peace.