The SGR Trick: Which was all based on, if Beijing blessed Kampala!

The Standard Gauge Railway in the East African Community was all based on if the Chinese counterparts wanted to fund the infrastructure and the grand enterprise of rails in the region. Today, it was revealed, not shockingly that the SGR works in Uganda has been suspended. This after reports in the Daily Monitor revealed this:

Uganda’s first phase of SGR, the eastern line running from Malaba to Kampala, about 273km (338km rail length), is expected to cost $2.3bn. Mr Kasaija admitted that Uganda has currently taken a back seat on the SGR venture, but will resume “serious discussions once Kenya is about to reach” the Ugandan side. President Museveni, according to sources familiar with the venture, in recent months had been directly involved in discussions on the project, and had hoped to secure financing for the first section of the railway line during his visit to China last month when he attended the seventh Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit. But he returned empty-handed. However, Mr Kasaija revealed that during the discussions in Beijing, it was agreed that “Uganda and Kenya will embark on joint financing negotiations” after Kenya has completed the current Nairobi-Naivasha section” (Daily Monitor – ‘Uganda puts SGR on hold over unresolved issues with Kenya’ 30.10.2018, link: https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/ea/uganda/Uganda-puts-SGR-over-unresolved-issues-kenya/4003148-4828902-156c5upz/index.html).

I have doubts that it will help reaching more agreements with the Kenyan counterparts at this time. As they have had plenty of agreements, joint communiques and meetings with the Northern Corridor Integrated Project (NCIP), which is going back to 2015. Where there was back in October 2015 on the 11th NCIP Communique, where the document stated: “the summit noted progress made in the finalisation of bankable proposals for some sections and directed the Ministers of Finance, Infrastructure, Attorney Generals, coordinated by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, to undertake a joint visit to EXIM Bank in China to conclude Financing Agreements” (11th NCIP Summit – Joint Communique’ Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya 17.10.2015).

If you follow it clearly, the progress of the 2015 have been stalled or rejected, but the parties still want to pursuit the goal of building the rails. Even as even the Chinese doesn’t believe in it or seeing the lack of fortunes in Kenya to maybe wishing to extend the tracks further at this given moment. What we are seeing is that the Ugandan government has persisted, but not gone through.

They even had the idea of the SGR Railway in the National Development Plan II of 3rd March 2015, which also holds the idea of the rails alive with this statement: “Joint formal agreements for plans to build a new Standard Gauge railway (SGR) have been signed by the EAC Countries. The SGR project starts in Mombasa through Nairobi, Kampala, Kigali and Juba. A cross section of the different routes of the SGR to the South Western, Northern, North Western and Eastern Uganda will aid the mining industry through transportation of equipment and raw materials. The overall objective of the SGR is to jointly develop and operate a modern, fast, reliable, efficient and high capacity regional railway transport system as a seamless single system and as a mechanism to stimulate overall economic development” (NDPII, 03.03.2015). By the way, the implementation of the NDPII is supposed to be between 2015/2016 to 2019/2020 to fulfill the Vision 2020. However, by the SGR failure, this shows the lack of progress and just the major agreements, but not the needed funding or possibility of partners to invest in the huge infrastructure projects the government has.

While on the 3rd of October, the Ministry of Works produced the 14th Joint Transport Sector Review Workshop presentation, where they by June 2018 stated: “The financing agreement for the SGR was not signed. However, negotiations to sign the financing agreement are in advanced stages” (Ministry of Works, 03.10.2018). So, you see, the government knows perfectly well, they cannot and doesn’t have finances for the building of it. It is soon November 2018 and getting closer to Vision 2020, but no sign of a working rails across the Republic. Especially not, when they are waiting for the Chinese to see it as a viable project in the first place.

What the government didn’t tell today or yesterday, is that the Chinese said no a little while ago:

For it to make business sense, the proposed line has to reach Uganda in order to take over a huge chunk of the haulage business in the landlocked country ahead of the Tanzania-Rwanda SGR line. Uganda is said to have decided to revamp its old metre-gauge railway when it became apparent that the Kenyan line could delay for up to three years. A regional weekly recently reported that the ministers for transport and finance of the two countries were supposed to have engagements with China Exim Bank on the sections of Kisumu to Kampala via Malaba” (…) “This, however, flopped and instead the executives from China Exim Bank flew to Kampala and later Nairobi last November to carry out due diligence on the Uganda project proposal and contract application” (Guguyu Otiato – ‘Worry as China puts SGR funding on hold’ 06.03.2018 link: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001294667/alarm-as-china-puts-sgr-funding-on-hold).

So, when the government are saying it wasn’t signed, is that the Exim Chinese Bank rejected it and hasn’t accepted the infrastructure project at this point. Certainly, they don’t see it viable or even possible for profits. They have already started in Kenya, but has to finish that part, before they extend to the other Republics in the EAC. Therefore, the SGR is still a dream elsewhere in the Northern Corridor, as they seemed more ready in 2015, than the donors or the development partners ever where. Because the GoU are not ready to finance it self and not have the ability to do so. Without getting funding from the outside. They have to beg for loans and grants to get it. Peace.

Rwanda: P5 Press Release – Rwandan Opposition Shocked by the Mysterious Disappearence from Maximum Security Prison of the 1st Vice President of FDU- Inkingi Boniface Twagirimana (16.10.2018)

Rwanda: FDU-Inkingi calls on the Rwandan Government to Explain the Suspicious Disappearance of its 1st Vice President Boniface Twagirimana (08.10.2018)

President Kagame warns the MPs on their Swearing-In Ceremony!

You would think that the opening of a new Parliament should be a joyful day for the new Members of Parliament and the other representatives, as they are starting a new legislative career and also become a vital part of the government. Instead, a major part of the speech made by the President Paul Kagame is more of fear and intimidation, than of trying to tell what is their mission, the plans for this term or even scheduled affairs for this Parliament by the Executive. That really just shows the passion and heart for the Republic, that Kagame has.

I have taken a piece of the Transcript to prove what he was saying, and that the President says this. Shows his attitude and his will power to control. This is not said by a man, whose peaceful or really caring about the lives he touches with his power. As Kagame are saying, if your saying things, which I deem as not true, you might end in prison like these so-called political stars. This shows, that it wasn’t really mercy, but they might end back there if they doesn’t follow the will of the President.

Our political system is to mind our own business not to mind other people’s business. We have become familiar with that kind of political system whereby those who have stolen or made other mistakes are out there talking about political issues in their countries. So, they are hosted but they should know that they cause problems to their hosts and to Rwandans in general as well. After they had taught you that they would host you in case of anything because they will do it in the name of someone who wants to see a change here in Rwanda. In Rwanda things will change according to they way we want them to, not according to how others wish. Recently, as usual, because it is not the first time as a way to solve those problems, we have mercy, not mercy as such but as a way to solve problems. If we did not give clemency, how many people would still be in prison? We would still have hundreds of thousands in jail because that is where they should be. But to build our country, we made the decision to rehabilitate our citizens and enable them to contribute to our country. Recently, when we released people including the political stars as from outside the country, that it is how we do it, it is not for the first time. But some people were saying that they did not and cannot ask for forgiveness but said it was because of the pressure. Which pressure here? In Rwanda, it is not pressure we respond to, it is our own thoughts. Where this country comes from has taught us that we must refuse to be a submissive people. If you keep on saying so, you will find yourself back in jail” (Paul Kagame, 19.09.2018 – ‘President Paul Kagame’s full speech after the swearing in of newly elected MPs’ IGHE, link: http://en.igihe.com/news/president-paul-kagame-s-full-speech-after-the.html).

President Kagame is really showing his force and lack of tolerance. Not that this is new, because intimidation and fear is his tools of control. Now he has to tell this to the MPs as well, so they know that they have to follow him and not speak ill of him or the Republic. Because if they do so, they are not following the wish of him and his closest allies.

This sort of speech shows his true character, as he wouldn’t do this in an international forum or as an African Union Chairman. Then he will be polished and sound like a decent man. But the ones that has followed his career, knows he is a gangster uniformed into the Executive of the Republic. He is maybe dressing smart, but his acts are sinister and use of arms have never been far away from him. The President is clearly also offering this to his MPs.

The MPs should now know, that the prisoners who has been offered pardon, can easily return and if they question the President’s power. They could follow them behind bars. As the thoughts of the President is the ones that matter, not the other voices. If you listen to them, you might serve time, as your a submissive soul, who listen to others than Paul. Peace.

Rwanda: P5 welcomes the release of political prisoner Mrs. Ingabire Victorie Umuhoza (16.09.2018)

Opinion: Victorie Ingabire Umuhoza is freed, but Kagame’s impunity still continues!

It is sort of welcoming that President Paul Kagame has released 2000 political prisoners. However, there is no reason to really celebrate it. Not like Kagame is reforming his ways or trying to open up for multi-party democracy, even as there is one Opposition MP in the Parliament after the recent election. Not like that person’s voice will cause a revolution.

We should know that the freedom of Victorie Ingabire Umuhoza, the opposition leader and President of FDU-Inkingi, which was arrested and detained on terrorism charges, because she challenged Kagame before the August 2010 Presidential Elections. She was later arrested in October 2010, since then she was detained on the charges explained below.

The Applicant avers that on 10 February, 2010, she received a summons requiring her to appear before a judicial police officer at the Criminal Investigation Department (ClD). According to her, she was accused of committing the offence of aiding and abetting terrorism, punishable under Article 12 of Law No. 45/2009 of 9 September, 2008, on the punishment of the offence of terrorism. She states that the allegations were “exclusively based on contacts she is said to have had with some defectors of the Forces Ddmocratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR), with a view to establishing an armed branch of the political party called Forces Democratiques Unifiees, of which she is President”. She further submits that she was also charged with “spreading the ideology of genooide, sectarianism and divisionism” (African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights – ‘In the matter of Ingabire Victorie Umuhoza V. Republic of Rwanda – Judgment’ (24.11.2017).

Even if Ingabire Umuhoza now is released and allowed to do political work for FDU-Inkingi, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) still owns the Republic and Kagame is not limiting his powers. He still controls it all and everyone else, he does this for brownie points and making him look better. Even as that is not the reality. If it was so, the torture, the treatment of Ingabire and everything that happen to her while incarcerated. There was even reports of lacking of food and other acts of ill-treatment of her. She is certainly not alone in those acts of impunity against citizens behind bars. That is why, we cannot just celebrate the 2000 liberated political prisoners.

That is because we cannot give this away and give Kagame the props. Because then I am playing in the hands of him and I cannot do that. His able to play around the board of Arsenal, but the rest of us knows Red Cards, when we see them.

She was arrested for eight years on forged charges, that was the rest of them too. If not, why could Kagame suddenly show mercy to them all? If he didn’t know that he was the man behind their demise and the reason for their pain. Kagame knows this and trying to get positive news behind him. Even if they are not saying he is the reason for their demise. Which all of the pardoned prisoners should say, as the political prisoners most of them was.

Ingabire was the biggest one of the pardoned prisoners, there are still plenty of them behind bars. The other one that has challenged Kagame for Presidential Elections was Diane Rwigara, that is currently still behind bars and the state has sold of the properties of the family. While also arrested several of her relatives. So, it is not like the RPF and Kagame have changed, because they are still acting with impunity. That should never be forgotten, it is not like these pardons has changed the reality of what the Kagame regime is. Peace.

Double Standard: IGP Kayihura is out on bail, but shouldn’t he linger in jail; While investigation goes on?

Since the 12th June 2018, former Inspector General of Police Kale Kayihura have been in the custody of the military, as he has been under investigation and arrested. This was until today the 28th August. As he was released on bailed after being detained at the Makindye Military Barracks awaiting trial for 3 charges. Now, today he was released and is out while awaiting possible more trials on the charges.

So, it is not like Gen. Kayihura is free or even close to freedom. He went over two months before his first trial and without direct charges. Now, he himself has tasted the system that he used against other people as the IGP. Therefore, I don’t have much sympathy for the man.

What we know with former IGPs under Museveni, as either they get other roles or end up in a demise. As they know to much and there are reasons why the President wants to get rid of them. We cannot know for sure, but the former loyal cadre of Museveni is surely not done with the Courts. As he is awaiting to answer the trials, as this is just a temporary release though.

What is ironic about today, is that back in the day. He was himself against the bail. Back in April 2015 for cases like himself and treason, the really serious cases against the state and with dire consequences. He wanted the bail abolished and the opportunity to release this charged persons behind bars indefinitely as they was a cause to interfere with the investigation itself if they was released. His argument was that this temporary freedom could undermine evidence gathering, therefore, that he is released on bail today. Is that a giant worry for the state or doesn’t the argument valid for him? Is he above his own argument as the three charges are serious? What if he can silence or even intimidate the ones who will testify against him?

That is what we should question today, if the rules changes when your in power and when your not. If the used argument while your in power are still valid when you have lost your title and station. As Kayihura is at this point a citizen without a position. He is a former cadre and loyal henchman of the state, who now is a target by the authorities he himself served for life. Therefore, his vision might be blurred now, as he is feeling a bit of pinch, as he knows what the state does to their enemies.

With knowledge of what he has done to the opposition and activists, how he has been a tool and used his time in power to suppress people. There is hard to wish his to meet the rule of law and justice. It is supposed to equal to law. That means also for Kayihura even with all kind of harassment, intimidation and arbitrary arrests.

He has to report to Court as required and cannot move wherever he wants, as this is partly freedom on state terms. He should know this and so the celebration of his family today. However, there are many of us, that wants him to answer for all the ills and the orders he has put, as people have died for attending rallies, lingering in jail without trials and so-on, that was all done by his orders and his watch. Therefore, people like me isn’t happy he is on bail. He doesn’t deserve it, he should pay for his sins, as he has been a loyal stooge of the tyrant and accepted to do dirt for him. Peace.

FDU-Inkingi: The UDF Party denounces an upsurge in arbitrary arrests and threats against alleged supporters in Ngoma District, Eastern Region of Rwanda (27.08.2018)

Gen. Kazini’s nightmare could soon follow Gen. Kayihura!

Today, in Makindye General Court Martial, the former Inspector General of Police Kale Edward Kayihura was charges with three counts of criminal conspiracy. This was after 72 days in Military Detention at the Makindye Military Prison at the Barracks there. So, that Lt. Gen. Andrew Guti was saying the words and the conspired charges against him. Is just like other men who the President has built up, put on a pedestal and later dismantled into tiny pieces. We can soon await more trouble, as the twisted tale of Kayihura is not over, as the Court adjourned today.

I am expecting the same sort of ordeal of Gen. James Kazini, who rose the ranks, became a big-man and suddenly fallen dead at the home of his side-dish. The story of Gen. Kazini is relevant today, because both Kayihura and him has been vital parts of machinery of President Museveni at some point. Kayihura was the loyal IGP for two terms and now is a criminal. Therefore, because of how he lacked tact towards opposition and citizens in general. There is little sympathy for Kayihura. Because he knows what he has done, even if he had deserved fair justice, he served dozens of people and activists with less human respect in his time in office. He should get justice and get fail trail. However, he has himself let people through fire to be loyal to Museveni. Now he get to feel the side of the side stick himself.

Kayihura should worry that he would become the next Kazini. Because just like Gen. Kazini, he knew enough and the President didn’t want that out. The same might be similar to Kayihura. As they have both been close the President at their time. Now, he is paying for the loyalty with harsh charges. The same happen to Kazini, that was supposed to overthrow Museveni from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Now, Kayihura are supposed to have brought weapons from Rwanda and supposed other misgivings. Both Kayihura and Kazini has been charged with neglect of official duty. Therefore, Museveni is returning old tricks against his own former henchmen.

Because both of these men has been hailed by Museveni at one point, before later stabbed in the back by the same man. It is just like Museveni likes to repeat himself. Another General is taken down. Because they both was fired swiftly and months later take to trial. We can just await what happens after the up-coming trials and collected evidence from the state towards Kayihura.

I don’t know how the last demise will be for Kayihura. But if he repeat himself, there will be love-triangle, maybe even at the Sky Blue Hotel in Lyantonde, Western Uganda. Where he liked to spend his time, when the former IGP wasn’t on his farm. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was found there and there was wide speculation of his sudden fall and loss of life. That is just me guessing, as the great Kazini suddenly was found with his side-dish and never returned.

The similar efforts done to Kazini could easily be done again. Museveni have the ability to order and do this. We shouldn’t be surprised by this.

Kayihura should worry himself and not feel safe, as the program is put into play and how this ends, might be fatal. Hopefully I am wrong. But Museveni doesn’t play around. He has had the power and ability to do it to the ones he knew in the past. Museveni could do it again.

Kayihura should pay for his sins. These sins should he answer for, but not possible extra-judicial killing. That is what I am implying, but with the history and acts of Museveni. There is the possibility. Not like the old-man is more tolerant with his age, more hostile and less caring about the environment around him. Peace.